River discharge controls phytoplankton dynamics in the northern San Francisco Bay estuary

Phytoplankton dynamics in the upper reach of the northern San Francisco Bay estuary are usually characterized by low biomass dominated by microflagellates or freshwater diatoms in winter, and high biomass dominated by neritic diatoms in summer. During two successive years of very low river discharge (the drought of 1976-77), the summer diatom bloom was absent. This is consistent with the hypothesis that formation of the diatom population maximum is a consequence of the same physical mechanisms that create local maxima of suspended sediments in partially-mixed estuaries: density-selective retention of particles within an estuarine circulation cell. Because the estuary is turbid, calculated phytoplankton growth rates are small in the central deep channel but are relatively large in lateral shallow embayments where light limination is less severe. When river discharge falls within a critical range (100–350 m³ s^?1) that positions the suspended particulate maximum adjacent to the productive shallow bays, the population of neritic diatoms increases. However, during periods of high discharge (winter) or during periods of very low discharge (drought), the suspended particulate maximum is less well-defined and is uncoupled (positioned downstream or upstream) from the shallow bays of the upper estuary, and the population of neritic diatoms declines. Hence, the biomass and community composition of phytoplankton in this estuary are controlled by river discharge.     

Temporal and spatial variations in the biogeochemical cycling of cobalt in two urban estuaries: Hudson River Estuary and San Francisco Bay

Despite the fact that Co is an essential trace element for the growth of marine phytoplankton, there is very limited information on the cycling of this trace metal in the marine environment. We report here the distribution of dissolved (<0.4 μm) and particulate (>0.4 μm) Co in surface waters of the Hudson River Estuary (HRE) and San Francisco Bay (SFB). Samples were collected during several cruises (from 1990 to 1995 in SFB and from 1995 to 1997 in the HRE) along the whole salinity gradient. Dissolved Co concentrations (mean±1 standard deviation) were nearly identical in magnitude in both estuaries despite differences in climate, hydrography, riverine-flow conditions and land-usage (HRE=0.91±0.61 nM; SFB=1.12±0.69 nM). Dissolved Co levels in each system showed non-conservative distributions when plotted as a function of salinity, with increasing concentrations downstream from the riverine end-members. Desorption from suspended particulates and sewage inputs, therefore, seems to be the major processes responsible for the non-conservative behavior of Co observed. Mass balance estimates also indicated that most of the estuarine Co is exported out of both estuaries, indicating that they and other estuarine systems are principal sources of this essential trace element to the open ocean.     

Sources and biogeochemical cycling of particulate selenium in the San Francisco Bay estuary

As part of a study of estuarine selenium cycling, we measured the concentration, chemical form (speciation), and distribution of particulate selenium under various river flow conditions in the North San Francisco Bay (from the Golden Gate to the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers). We also conducted laboratory studies on the accumulation of selenium by phytoplankton, the critical first step in the transformation of dissolved to particulate selenium. Total particulate selenium concentration in the North SF Bay was relatively constant between high and low flow periods, ranging spatially from 0.05 to 0.35 nmol l⁻¹ and comprising between 5 and 12% of the total water column selenium inventory. Mean concentrations were generally highest in the Carquinez Strait–Suisun Bay region (salinity 0–17) and lowest in Central Bay. However, selenium content of suspended particles varied with river flow, with higher content during low flow (9.76 ± 4.17 nmol g⁻¹; mean ± sd; n = 67) compared to high flow (7.10 ± 4.24 nmol g⁻¹; n = 39). Speciation analyses showed that most particulate selenium is organic selenide (45 ± 27%), with a smaller proportion (typically <30%) of adsorbed selenite + selenate and a varying proportion (35 ± 28%) of elemental selenium. Based on the amount of elemental selenium in the seston (total suspended material), we calculate that resuspension of estuarine sediments could contribute 29–100% of particulate selenium in the water column. While selenium content of SF Bay seston (>0.4 μm) is relatively unenriched compared to phytoplankton (13.6–155 nmol g⁻¹ dry weight) on a mass basis, when normalized to carbon or nitrogen, seston contains a similar selenium concentration to SF Bay sediments or phytoplankton cultures. SF Bay seston is thus comprised of selenium-rich phytoplankton and phyto-detritus, but also inorganic clay mineral particles that effectively “dilute” total particulate selenium. Selenium concentrations in algal cultures (11 species) exposed to 90 nmol l⁻¹ selenite show relatively large differences in selenium accumulation, with the diatoms, chlorophytes and cryptophytes generally having lower selenium cell content (3.8 ± 2.7 × 10⁻⁹ nmol selenium cell⁻¹) compared to the dinoflagellates (193 ± 73 × 10⁻⁹ nmol selenium cell⁻¹). Because phytoplankton are such a rich (but variable) source of selenium, their dynamics could have a profound effect on the particulate selenium inventory in the North SF Bay.     

Increased benthic grazing: An alternative explanation for low phytoplankton biomass in northern San Francisco Bay during the 1976–1977 drought

Among the consequences of extremely low river flow into northern San Francisco Bay during a two-year drought were (1) a gradual increase in salinity, (2) an unusual decline in chlorophyll a concentration, and (3) the upstream migration of estuarine benthic invertebrates to the normally brackish area of the bay. Total abundance in the benthos at a shallow monitoring site increased from a normal 2000 to greater than 20 000 individuals m^?2 during the summer of 1977, presumably in response to the increased salinity. Estimated filtration rates derived from equations in the literature for one of the species, the suspended-feeding bivalve Mya arenaria ranged from 1 to 4 m³ m^?2 day^?1 during 1977 depending on abundance and mean size on sampling dates. Because water depth at this site is less than 2 m, Mya could have filtered all of the particles (including diatoms) from the water column on the order of once per day. Several other immigrant species undoubtedly contributed to the removal of particles from the near-bottom water as well. Increased benthic grazing, therefore, could have accounted for the anomalously low phytoplankton biomass observed during the drought. These results suggest that during periods of prolonged low river flow and increased salinity benthic food webs could become more important than planktonic food webs in the upper part of the estuary.     

Harmonic analysis of tides and tidal currents in South San Francisco Bay,California

Water level observations from tide stations and current observations from current-meter moorings in South San Francisco Bay (South Bay), California have been harmonically analysed. At each tide station, 13 harmonic constituents have been computed by a least-squares regression without inference. Tides in South Bay are typically mixed; there is a phase lag of approximately 1 h and an amplification of 1·5 from north to south for a mean semi-diurnal tide. Because most of the current-meter records are between 14 and 29 days, only the five most important harmonics have been solved for east-west and north-south velocity components. The eccentricity of tidal-current ellipse is generally very small, which indicates that the tidal current in South Bay is strongly bidirectional. The analyses further show that the principal direction and the magnitude of tidal current are well correlated with the basin bathymetry. Patterns of Eulerian residual circulation deduced from the current-meter data show an anticlockwise gyre to the west and a clockwise gyre to the east of the main channel in the summer months due to the prevailing westerly wind. Opposite trends have been observed during winter when the wind was variable.     

Marsh expansion at Calaveras Point Marsh, South San Francisco Bay, California

Studies of shoreline progradation along low-energy vegetated shorelines have been limited, as these environments are generally experiencing erosion rather than deposition, with extreme erosion rates frequently found. This study examined yearly changes along a vegetated shoreline at Calaveras Point Marsh, South San Francisco Bay, California, using aerial photography, to determine the roles of climatic, watershed, and coastal process in driving shoreline changes. In addition, sediment accumulation was monitored on a yearly basis at 48 locations across the marsh to determine the role of geomorphic factors in promoting accumulation. Calaveras Point Marsh was found to have expanded from 49.26 ± 5.2 to 165.7 ± 4.7 ha between 1975 and 2005. Although the rate of marsh expansion was not positively correlated with yearly variability in precipitation, local streamflow, delta outflow, water level observations, population growth, or ENSO indices, marsh growth was greater during years of higher than average temperatures. Warmer temperatures may have promoted the recruitment and growth of Spartina foliosa, a C₄ grass known to be highly responsive to temperature. Other factors, such as the formation of a coastal barrier, a recent change in the location of the mouth of the Guadalupe River, and channel readjustment in response to diking are credited with driving the bulk of the marsh expansion. Sediment accumulation was found to be high closest to channels and to the shoreline, at low elevations and in recently vegetated marsh. Globally, the pace of sea level rise exerts the primary control on wetland development and persistence. However, at local geographic scales, factors such as tectonic events, modifications to natural sediment transport pathways or land use changes may overwhelm the effects of regional sea level rise, and allow for wetlands to develop, expand and persist despite rapid sea level rise.     

大亚湾冬季水位的亚潮变化及其与南海的耦合

本文应用常规时间序列谱分析方法和频域的多输入线性模型研究了冬季广东省大亚湾内水位的亚潮变化及其与大亚湾本地和外海远处各种强迫作用因素间的关系。结果表明：冬季在亚湾亚潮水位的能量主要集中在６．４ｄ和３．６ｄ频带,而在１０．７ｄ频带还有一较弱谱峰,同期广东沿海风的低频能量也主要集中于２－７ｄ频段。造成冬季亚潮水位变化的原因包含了大亚湾本地气象条件的影响,但主要是远地因素作用于大亚湾的结果。外海影响一方     

Relationships between sediment contamination and toxicity in San Francisco Bay

Sediment contamination and toxicity were monitored at 14 sites in San Francisco Bay between 1991 and 1996. Sediment contamination patterns were different in the major reaches of the Bay, and at each site. Several contaminants were consistently above concentrations previously associated with toxicity at most sites. Bulk sediment bioassays using the amphipod Eohaustorius estuarius and sediment elutriate bioassays using larval bivalves (Mytilus spp., Crassostrea gigas) also indicated different patterns of sediment toxicity in space and time. Sediments were most toxic to the amphipods at Redwood Creek (90% of the tests), and were toxic in at least half the tests conducted at five other sites. Sediment elutriates severely reduced normal bivalve larval development at the San Joaquin and Sacramento Rivers in all samples, but toxicity occurred in less than a third of the tests in the Central and South Bays. Toxicity could not be statistically related to seasonal freshwater flow or rainfall in the Bay, but seasonal variation in contaminant concentrations and toxicity was observed. Amphipod toxicity was inversely and significantly related to the mean effects range-median quotient, suggesting that cumulative concentrations of several contaminants were related to toxicity. Further analysis identified suites of specific contaminants at each site that were variably related to amphipod toxicity at each site. Chlordanes, cadmium, and silver were significantly related to amphipod survival in the North Bay. Seasonal patterns in low, and high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were related to toxicity at Alameda, and metals and PAHs were related to toxicity at Castro Cove. Larval bivalve toxicity was associated with metals in bulk sediments, but elutriate chemistry was not measured, and relationships with toxicity could not be examined. Hypotheses about effective concentrations of several individual contaminants and mixtures of contaminants were posed.     

Physico-chemical Speciation of Lead in South San Francisco Bay

The speciation of lead at a site in the South San Francisco Bay was determined using a combination of physical size fractionation and electrochemical analyses. The ‘ total dissolvable ’ Pb was 8·1 nM from analysis of an acidified unfiltered sample. The ‘ dissolved ’ Pb was equal to 0·20 nM (41 ng l⁻¹), only 2·5% of the ‘ total dissolvable ’ Pb. The difference yielded the ‘ particulate ’ Pb equal to 7·9 nM (1·6 μg l⁻¹). Results from crossflow ultrafiltration indicated that almost all (0·19 nM) of the dissolved Pb was ‘ in solution ’ [<10K nominal molecular weight (MW)] and that colloidal Pb (10K MW to 0·2 μm)accounted for onlyc. 1% of the dissolved Pb at this station. This small concentration (0·01 nM) of colloidal Pb may be attributed to the low amount of organic carbon associated with colloid size fraction as determined by dissolved organic carbon analyses.The chemical speciation of lead was determined in the dissolved sample and ultrafiltered sub-sample. Differential pulse anodic stripping voltammetry (DPASV) on a thin mercury film (TMF) rotating glassy carbon disk electrode (RGCDE) was used to distinguish the kinetically labile inorganic species (Pb′) from the Pb-chelated by organic ligands (PbL_i). Lead titration results were similar for both samples revealing that Pb′, PbL_iand excess unbound ligands were present primarily in the ultrafiltrate, rather than in the colloidal phase. The titration data can be interpreted as dissolved Pb being influenced by two classes of Pb-binding ligands. In the dissolved sample, the concentration of the stronger class of ligands was [L₁]=0·89±0·35 nM, with a conditional stability constant ofK^cond_L1,Pb′=3±1×10¹⁰M⁻¹. The weaker class was [L₂]=12·8±1·9 nM, withK^cond_L1,Pb′=4±1×10⁸ M⁻¹. The presence of these ligands, in excess of the dissolved Pb, resulted in [Pb′]=7±2 pM and [Pb²⁺]=0·3 pM (62 pg l⁻¹). While less than 2·4% of the ambient Pb was ‘ in solution ’, it existed chiefly in the form of organic complexes with [PbL₁]=0·15 nM and [PbL₂]=0·03 nM. More significantly, there were large concentrations of unchelated Pb-binding ligands, (L_i′), available to buffer the free Pb²⁺concentration in the event of perturbations in dissolved Pb.     

Chemical determination of particulate nitrogen in San Francisco Bay. Nitrogen: chlorophyll a ratios in plankton

Particulate nitrogen (PN) and chlorophyll a (Chla) were measured in the northern reach of San Francisco Bay throughout 1980. The PN values were calculated as the differences between unfiltered and filtered (0·4 μm) samples analyzed using the UV-catalyzed peroxide digestion method. The Chla values were measured spectrophotometrically, with corrections made for phaeopigments. The plot of all $\text{PN}\text{Chl}\text{a}$ data was found to be non-linear, and the concentration of suspended particulate matter (SPM) was found to be the best selector for linear subsets of the data. The best-fit slopes of $\text{PN}\text{Chl}\text{a}$ plots, as determined by linear regression (model II), were interpreted to be the N: Chla ratios of phytoplankton. The Y-intercepts of the regression lines were considered to represent easily-oxidizable detrital nitrogen (EDN). In clear water ( < 10 mg l^?1 SPM), the N: Chla ratio was 1·07 μg-at N per μg Chla. It decreased to 0·60 in the 10–18 mg l^?1 range and averaged 0·31 in the remaining four ranges (18–35, 35–65, 65–155, and 155–470 mg l^?1). The EDN values were less than 1 μg-at N l^?1 in the clear water and increased monotonically to almost 12 μg-at N l^?1 in the highest SPM range. The N: Chla ratios for the four highest SPM ranges agree well with data for phytoplankton in light-limited cultures. In these ranges, phytoplankton-N averaged only 20% of the PN, while EDN averaged 39% and refractory-N 41%.     

Anthropogenic influences on shoreline and nearshore evolution in the San Francisco Bay coastal system

Analysis of four historical bathymetric surveys over a 132-year period has revealed significant changes to the morphology of the San Francisco Bar, an ebb-tidal delta at the mouth of San Francisco Bay estuary. From 1873 to 2005 the San Francisco Bar vertically-eroded an average of 80 cm over a 125 km² area, which equates to a total volume loss of 100 ± 52 million m³ of fine- to coarse-grained sand. Comparison of the surveys indicates the entire ebb-tidal delta contracted radially, with the crest moving landward an average of 1 km. Long-term erosion of the ebb-tidal delta is hypothesized to be due to a reduction in the tidal prism of San Francisco Bay and a decrease in coastal sediment supply, both as a result of anthropogenic activities. Prior research indicates that the tidal prism of the estuary was reduced by 9% from filling, diking, and sedimentation. Compilation of historical records dating back to 1900 reveals that a minimum of 200 million m³ of sediment has been permanently removed from the San Francisco Bay coastal system through dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining. Of this total, ∼54 million m³ of sand-sized or coarser sediment was removed from central San Francisco Bay. With grain sizes comparable to the ebb-tidal delta, and its direct connection to the bay mouth, removal of sediments from central San Francisco Bay may limit the sand supply to the delta and open coast beaches.     

Spatial and temporal variability in South San Francisco Bay (USA). I. Horizontal distributions of salinity, suspended sediments, and phytoplankton biomass and productivity

The horizontal pattern of mesoscale (1–4 km) variability in salinity was a poor predictor of mesoscale patterns in chlorophyll a, suspended particulate matter, and daily primary productivity in the South San Francisco Bay estuary during spring 1987. The tidally-averaged salinity distribution varied over weekly time scales, reflecting inputs of freshwater as well as transport processes. Spatial distributions of the other quantities also varied weekly, but not in concert with the salt field. Spatial patterns of phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) deviated from the salinity patterns, largely reflecting in situ production of phytoplankton biomass during the spring bloom. The tidally-averaged distribution of suspended particulate matter (SPM) was highly dynamic and responded to (1) the riverine input of suspended sediment during a freshet, (2) neap-spring variations in tidally-driven resuspension, and (3) resuspension in shallows following a period of wind mixing. Two-dimensional distributions of primary productivity P′, derived from maps of biomass and turbidity (SPM), also varied weekly, but the spatial variability of P′ was only about half that of SPM and chlorophyll. Since the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability differ among nonconservative quantities, at least in part because of local sources and sinks, we conclude that the spatial distributions of nonconservative quantities cannot be predicted from distributions of conservative tracers, such as salinity.     

日本广岛湾非潮汐的水位变化

Nontidal sea level changes generated in Hiroshima Bay of the Seto-Inland Sea in Japan are studied over various time scales, from the sub-tidal （2 d to 1 month） to inter-annual scales （〉2 years）. The total sea level variation produces a standard deviation （STD） of 12.5 cm. The inter-annual component of the sea level variation in Hiroshima Bay oscillates with a STD of 3.4 cm, forming a long-term trend of 4.9 mm/a. The STD of the sea level variation is 9.8 cm for the seasonal component （8 months to 2 years） and 4.7 cm for the intra-seasonal one （1 month to 8 months）. Significant sea level variations with a STD of 4.2 cm also occur in the sub-tidal range. Special attention is paid to the sub-tidal sea level changes. It is found that the upwelling and associated transient sea level changes generated along the north coast of Hiroshima Bay （opened southward） by the strong northerly wind, play a significant role in sub-tidal sea level changes. The transient sea level changes are over 10 cm in most cases when caused by typhoons that pass through the Pacific Ocean offthe Kii Peninsula, located at about 400 km east of Hiroshima Bay. Reasonable sea level changes are evaluated by the balance of pressure forces at the onshore and offshore boundary of the study domain.     

Aquatic macroinvertebrate communities of natural and ditched potholes in a San Francisco Bay salt marsh

Differences in macroinvertebrate community structure and composition were examined from April 1980 to March 1981 in three potholes that had been ditched for mosquito control and three natural (i.e. unditched) potholes, which are located in a San Francisco Bay, California, U.S.A. salt marsh. Measurements of incipient tidal flooding into potholes (i.e. pothole inundation threshold) indicated that these sites comprise a gradient of tidal influences. Exponential decreases in the frequency and duration of tidal inundation corresponded to linear increases in inundation threshold. Since ditched study sites had low thresholds they tended to be more uniformly and regularly influenced by tides, were less saline, had less variable temperature regimens, and supported less filamentous algae than natural potholes. Habitat conditions were generally more similar among ditched than unditched potholes, but environmental conditions were most severe at natural sites near the upper limit of the inundation threshold gradient, where some potholes desiccate during the dry season each year.Differences in macroinvertebrate communities corresponded to differences in habitat conditions. Species richness and diversity (Simpson's Index) were generally highest near the middle of the inundation threshold gradient, which is a pattern predicted by the Intermediate Disturbance Hypothesis. Analysis of faunal composition using discriminant functions indicated more similarity among potholes located at the lowest positions of the inundation gradient than among potholes with intermediate thresholds. Since ditching lowers the inundation thresholds of potholes, it reduces species richness and diversity, while increasing faunal similarity. As a result, extensive ditching to control salt marsh mosquitoes can reduce the overall complexity of lentic macroinvertebrate communities.     

Forecasting of chlorophyll-a concentrations in South San Francisco Bay using five different models

Accurate and reliable eutrophication level forecasting models are necessary for characterizing complicated water quality processes in bays. In this study, the ability of coupled discrete wavelet transform (DWT) with artificial neural network (ANN) and multi linear regression (MLR) (WANN and WMLR), ANN, MLR and genetic algorithm-support vector regression (GA-SVR) models for chlorophyll-a level forecasting applications were considered. The data used to develop and validate the models were monthly chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) data recorded from January 1994 to December 2013 were obtained from the NO.36 station located in the South San Francisco bay, USA. In the proposed WANN and WMLR models, the observed time series of Chl-a were decomposed to sub time series at different scales by DWT. Afterwards, the sub time series were used as input data to the ANN and MLR systems to predict the 1 month ahead Chl-a. Also the genetic algorithm was linked to SVR models to search for the optimal SVR parameters. The relative performance of the proposed models was compared together and the results showed that the WANN models were found to provide more accurate monthly Chl-a forecasts compared to the other models. The determination coefficient was 0.87, −0.04, 0.31, −2.36 and 0.24 for the WANN, WMLR, ANN, MLR and GA-SVR models, respectively. In addition, the WANN model predicted extreme Chl-a values precisely. The results indicate that the WANN models are a promising new method for eutrophication level forecasting in bays such as those found in South San Francisco Bay.     

Biomarker responses in Macoma nasuta (Bivalvia) exposed to sediments from northern San Francisco Bay

Our study investigates biomarker responses and survival of Macoma nasuta exposed to sediments collected from six locations in northern San Francisco Bay. Biomarkers analyzed were stress proteins (hsp70) in gill, mantle and digestive gland, lysosomal membrane damage and histopathologic lesions. Sediments and clam tissues were analyzed for a comprehensive suite of heavy metals and trace organic pollutants. Sediment grain size and organic carbon content were determined. Clams accumulated metals, polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and organochlorine pesticides (aldrin and p,p^′-DDT and its metabolites p,p^′-DDD and p,p^′-DDE). Pearson and Spearman correlation analysis revealed that mortality, hsp70 in gill and histopathologic lesion scores in gonads, and lysosomal membrane damage were significantly correlated with tissue concentrations of DDT and/or its metabolites. Tissue concentrations of metals, in particular nickel, chromium, and copper, were associated with macrophage aggregates in digestive gland and germ cell necrosis. Cadmium was linked to mortality and lysosomal membrane damage.     

Combined Use of Remote Sensing and Continuous Monitoring to Analyse the Variability of Suspended-Sediment Concentrations in San Francisco Bay, California

Analysis of suspended-sediment concentration data in San Francisco Bay is complicated by spatial and temporal variability. In situ optical backscatterance sensors provide continuous suspended-sediment concentration data, but inaccessibility, vandalism, and cost limit the number of potential monitoring stations. Satellite imagery reveals the spatial distribution of surficial-suspended sediment concentrations in the Bay; however, temporal resolution is poor. Analysis of thein situ sensor data in conjunction with the satellite reflectance data shows the effects of physical processes on both the spatial and temporal distribution of suspended sediment in San Francisco Bay. Plumes can be created by large freshwater flows. Zones of high suspended-sediment concentrations in shallow subembayments are associated with wind-wave resuspension and the spring-neap cycle. Filaments of clear and turbid water are caused by different transport processes in deep channels, as opposed to adjacent shallow water. Crown     

Effect of sea level rise on tidal circulation in the Hooghly Estuary,Bay of Bengal

The issue of sea level rise is receiving considerable attention all over the world. Although the Indian stations have shown mixed trends, a positive sea level trend has been noticed in the Hooghly Estuary, situated on the east coast of India. The Hooghly River serves as a navigable waterway to Calcutta and Haldia ports. The river is tidal for nearly 250 km. To study the water levels and tidal currents in the lower part of the Hooghly Estuary, from sea face at Sagar to Hooghly Point, a vertically integrated numerical model has been used. The model is fully nonlinear and uses a semiexplicit finite‐difference scheme to solve the basic hydrodynamic equations on a staggered grid. This model is coupled with a one‐dimensional model, which has been used for the upper estuary from Hooghly Point to Swarupganj, where the flow is unidirectional. The computed water levels and currents are found to be in good agreement with the available observations. This model is applied to study the alterations in tidal circulation for a rise and fall in the sea level. The results have shown a substantial increase in the amplitude and velocities of the tidal wave due to the sea level rise.     

Coastal sea level variability in the Bohai Bay: influence of atmospheric forcing and prediction

The sea level variabilities, especially the atmosphere-driven sea level variabilities, which are diff erent in studies on diverse areas and timescales, need to be further documented in the Bohai Bay. Coastal sea level data and coincident meteorological data collected hourly at two observation stations (E1 and E2) in the Bohai Bay, which is a typical semi-enclosed coastal sea in China, are analyzed for the period from 19 August 2014 to 18 November 2014. The sub-sampled low-pass (<0.8 cpd) sea levels (SLSLs) at E1 and E2 are almost the same as each other, while the winds are not. On the whole, SLSLs at E1 and E2 are dominantly influenced by the across-shore wind;in detail, the dominant wind orientation at E1 is 65° measured clockwise from north, and SLSL at E2 is significantly influenced by the sub-sampled wind (SW) at 55°. Regression of SLSL onto the corresponding SW in dominant orientation and the atmospheric pressure is used to predict SLSL, which make the frequency of occurrences when the predicted total sea level is within 0.15 m from the observed values increase to 66.03% and 58.08% at E1 and E2 from original 36.71% and 34.80% without using it, respectively. The results indicate that for the prediction of the total sea level variability in the coastal shallow waters, the SLSL influenced by the atmospheric forcing, including local wind and atmospheric pressure, can be predicted using the multivariable linear regression model.     

杭州湾潮汐特征时空变化及原因分析

杭州湾是世界著名的强潮河口湾,一直是研究的热点。基于杭州湾口内外实测潮汐资料,对杭州湾潮汐特征及时空变化进行了系统分析,包括高潮位、低潮位、平均潮位、潮差、涨潮历时以及天文潮变化,同时分析了20世纪80年代以来潮汐特征变化的原因。结果表明:最近50年来,杭州湾年平均高潮位和海平面抬高,潮差增大;澉浦年平均低潮位抬高,涨潮历时缩短,浅海分潮增大;钱塘江河口治江缩窄是造成杭州湾潮汐变化的主要因素;浙江和邻近海域的涉海工程可能是造成浙江沿海海平面上升的主要原因之一。