Structure and dynamics of fisheries in Nigeria

The changes that have taken place in Nigerian fisheries are reviewed. Artisanal fishery has continued to dominate the fisheries,contributing over 85% of total fish production. The inland water and coastal seas are fully exploited and the increase in fishery production is not likely. Aquaculture potentials remain untapped as much as deep-sea fisheries. The combined potential of the fisheries resources-freshwater,marine and aquaculture can meet over 90% of the nation's demand for fish. Opportunities for invest-ments,therefore,exist in the various subsectors,especially in the areas of storage,processing and preservation for the capture fishery and fish seed multiplication for aquaculture.     

Sustainable fisheries in shallow lakes:an independent empirical test of the Chinese mitten crab yield model

Next to excessive nutrient loading,intensive aquaculture is one of the major anthropogenic impacts threatening lake ecosystems.In China,particularly in the shallow lakes of mid-lower Changjiang(Yangtze) River,continuous overstocking of the Chinese mitten crab(Eriocheir sinensis) could deteriorate water quality and exhaust natural resources.A series of crab yield models and a general optimum-stocking rate model have been established,which seek to benefit both crab culture and the environment.In this research,independent investigations were carried out to evaluate the crab yield models and modify the optimum-stocking model.Low percentage errors(average 47%,median 36%) between observed and calculated crab yields were obtained.Specific values were defined for adult crab body mass(135 g/ind.) and recapture rate(18%and 30%in lakes with submerged macrophyte biomass above and below 1 000 g/m~2)to modify the optimum-stocking model.Analysis based on the modified optimum-stocking model indicated that the actual stocking rates in most lakes were much higher than the calculated optimum-stocking rates.This implies that,for most lakes,the current stocking rates should be greatly reduced to maintain healthy lake ecosystems.     

投影寻踪动态聚类方法及其在四川省生态环境质量评价中的应用

首次依据动态聚类思想，建立了投影寻踪动态聚类模型。并将方法用于四川省生态环境质量综合评价中。与投影寻踪聚类方法相比，投影寻踪动态聚类方法不但可以作出环境质量的综合评价，而且消除了投影寻踪聚类方法中密度窗宽确定的人为因素，把寻优过程和聚类结果有机结合起来，为生态环境质量综合评价的研究开创了一条新途径。     

A fisheries study on the sectional circulation in the East China Sea

Surveys since 1959 showed that the dynamic basis of the East China Sea sectional circulation is the nearshore seawater horizontal divergence caused by wind on the surface compensated by Kuroshio subsurface water convergence caused by meridional current in the lower layer. Fish always tend to migrate along certain routes or stay in certain areas favorable for development of eggs, survival of larvae and living of adults. The movement of water masses supplies a very important driving force for marine animals migrating long distance. The lower part of the sectional circulation formed by the subsurface water of Kuroshio is not suitable for the aggregation of fish because of its lack of oxygen, and has therefore a driving influence on demersal fishes. This study of the sectional circulation influence on the distributions of some commercially important species in the East China Sea reveals a close relationship between the circulation and the movement of fish schools. The principal factors influencing zonal vertical circulation are the meridional vector of the Kuroshio lower layer and atmospheric circulation, referning here mainly to the subtropical high pressure in the Asia-Pacific area that causes surface divergence and lifts subsurface water from the bottom to the surface at the nearshore area. Some simple methods for estimating the intensity of the sectional circulation are, introduced for fishery forecasts and operations.     

A quasi single-phase model for debris flows and its comparison with a two-phase model

A depth-averaged quasi single-phase mixture model is proposed for debris flows over inclined bed slopes based on the shallow water hydrosediment-morphodynamic theory with multi grain sizes. The stresses due to fluctuations are incorporated based on analogy to turbulent flows, as estimated using the depth-averaged k-? turbulence model and a modification component. A fully conservative numerical algorithm, using wellbalanced slope limited centred scheme, is deployed to solve the governing equations. The present quasi single-phase model using four closure relationships for the bed shear stresses is evaluated against USGS experimental debris flow and compared with traditional quasi single-phase models and a recent physically enhanced two-phase model. It is found that the present quasi single-phase model performs much better than the traditional models, and is attractive in terms of computational cost while the two-phase model performs even better appreciably.     

Multiple excitation wavelength fluorescence emission spectra technique for discrimination of phytoplankton

In vivo fluorescence methods are efficient tools for studying the distribution of phytoplankton in nature.Different algae species usually have different pigments with different ratios,which results in different fluorescence emission spectra.Based on multiple excitation wavelength fluorescence emission spectra,a discrimination technique is established in this study.The discrimination method,established by multivariate linear regression and weighted least-squares,was used to differentiate the samples cultured in the laboratory and collected from Jiaozhou Bay near Qingdao at the division level.The correctly discriminated samples were ≥ 86% for single algae samples,≥ 88% for simulatively mixed ones,≥ 91% for physically mixed ones and 100% for samples collected from Jiaozhou Bay.The result in this research is more definite for the physically mixed samples in the laboratory.The method described here can be employed to monitor the phytoplankton population in the marine environment.     

A WD-GA-LSSVM model for rainfall-triggered landslide displacement prediction

This paper proposes a WD-GA-LSSVM model for predicting the displacement of a deepseated landslide triggered by seasonal rainfall,in which wavelet denoising(WD)is used in displacement time series of landslide to eliminate the GPS observation noise in the original data,and genetic algorithm(GA)is applied to obtain optimal parameters of least squares support vector machines(LSSVM)model.The model is first trained and then evaluated by using data from a gentle dipping(~2°-5°)landslide triggered by seasonal rainfall in the southwest of China.Performance comparisons of WD-GA-LSSVM model with Back Propagation Neural Network(BPNN)model and LSSVM are presented,individually.The results indicate that the adoption of WD-GA-LSSVM model significantly improves the robustness and accuracy of the displacement prediction and it provides a powerful technique for predicting the displacement of a rainfall-triggered landslide.     

Fluorescence discrimination and determination technique for phytoplankton composition by Coif2 wavelet packet

An in vivo fluorescence discrimination technique for phytoplankton population was developed by using Wavelet packet transform, cluster analysis and non-negative least squares. The technique was used to analyze water samples from different sea regions. For simulative mixtures, when dominant species account for 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% at the division level, the correct discrimination ratios (CDRs) are 83.0%, 99.1%, 99.7% and 99.9% with the relative contents of 58.5%, 68.4%, 77.7% and 86.3%, respectively; when the algae dominance are 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100% at the genus level, the CDRs are 86.1%, 94.9%, 95.2%, 96.8% and 96.7%, respectively. For laboratory mixtures, the CDRs are 88.1% and 78.4% at the division and genus level, respectively. For field samples, the CDRs were 91.7% and 80% at the division and genus level, respectively (mesocosm experiments), and the CDRs were 100% and 66.7% at the division and genus level, respectively (Jiaozhou Bay). The fluorometric technique was used to estimate the phytoplankton community composition and relative abundance of different classes for the April 2010 cruise in the Yellow Sea with the results agreeing with those in published papers by other authors.     

A Debris-flow Simulation Model for the Evaluation of Protection Structures

Debris flow is the flow of a solid-fluid mixture and in this investigation it is treated as the flow of a continuum in routing. A numerical model is proposed describing debris flow including erosion and deposition processes with suitable boundary con-ditions. The numerical model is applied to evaluate the effects of protection structures against debris flow caused by heavy rainfall on the Shen-Mu Stream of Nantou County located in central Taiwan. Simulation results indicated that the proposed model can offer useful pre-planning guidelines for engineers.     

风险投资多阶段决策模型的分析

将传统的拉姆齐消费模型引入到多阶段风险投资中,建立了以获得经济利润最大化为目的的多阶段投资决策模型,利用稳定性理论探讨了均衡解的存在性,并且讨论均衡点处控制权分配的问题,对现实经济活动具有一定的指导意义.     

A THREE-DIMENSIONAL THERMOCLINE MODEL FOR THE YELLOW SEA AND NORTHERN EAST CHINA SEA

A time-dependent, three-dimensional finite difference model is presented for simulating the stratifiedYellow Sea and northem East China Sea. The mode is forced by time-dependent observed wind, surfaceflux of heat, and tidal turbulence. With this model, momentum and temperature distribution can be computed,and an approximation for the sub-grid scale effects is introduced by the use of mass and momentumexchange coefficients. The vertical exchanges are quite dependent on these assumed coefficents, whichare complicated functions of the turbulence energy of tide and wind, of the stratified strength and otherfactors. This model was applied to describe the mechanics of the variations in strength and thickness ofthe thermocline covering almost the whole Yellow Sea and northern East Chna Sea in summer. Comparisonsof the computed output with obtained survey data led to some important conclusions.     

Comparative study of otolith and sulcus morphology for stock discrimination of yellow drum along the Chinese coast

Otolith morphology is widely used for fish stock identification.The sulcus,a structure on the medial side of the otolith,is an important feature in morphological analysis.This study was conducted to evaluate the feasibility of using sulcus morphology for stock identification and to compare its performance with commonly used otolith morphology analysis.Otoliths were collected and analyzed from three geographical groups(the Huanghe(Yellow)River estuary,HHE;the Jiaozhou Bay,JZB;and the Changjiang(Yangtze)River estuary,CJE)of yellow drum Nibea albiftora.The results show that the analysis of sulcus morphology based on shape indices(SIs),elliptic Fourier coefficients(EFc),and a combination of the two parameters identified stocks at overall classification rates of 51.0%,72.5%,and 73.2%,respectively.These classification rates are similar to those obtained using otolith morphology analysis(57.0%,73.8%,and76.5%by SIs,EFc,and their combination,respectively).The findings suggest that sulcus morphology is comparable to the commonly used otolith morphology for identifying stocks of sciaenids,such as the yellow drum.For both otolith and sulcus morphology,EFc could identify the stocks more efficiently than SIs,while the combination of SIs and EFc was even better.     

A topographical model for precipitation pattern in the Tibetan Plateau

As the highest and most extensive plateau on earth, the Tibetan Plateau has strong thermo-dynamic effect, which not only affects regional climate around the plateau but also temperature and precipitation patterns of itself. However, due to scattered meteorological stations, its spatial precipitation pattern and, especially, the mechanism behind are poorly understood. The availability of spatially consistent satellite-derived precipitation data makes it possible to get accurate precipitation pattern in the plateau, which could help quantitatively explore the effect and mechanism of mass elevation effect on precipitation pattern. This paper made full use of TMPA 3B43 V7 monthly precipitation data to track the trajectory of precipitation and identified four routes (east, southeast, south, west directions) along which moisture-laden air masses move into the plateau. We made the assumption that precipitation pattern is the result interplay of these four moisture-laden air masses transportation routes against the distances from moisture sources and the topographic barriers along the routes. To do so, we developed a multivariate linear regression model with the spatial distribution of annual mean precipitation as the dependent variable and the topographical barriers to these four moisture sources as independent variables. The result shows that our model could explain about 70% of spatial variation of mean annual precipitation pattern in the plateau; the regression analysis also shows that the southeast moisture source (the Bay of Bengal) contributes the most (32.56%) to the rainfall pattern of the plateau; the east and the south sources have nearly the same contribution, 23.59% and 23.48%, respectively; while the west source contributes the least, only 20.37%. The findings of this study can greatly improve our understanding of mass elevation effect on spatial precipitation pattern.     

A VOF-based numerical model for breaking waves in surf zone

This paper introduces a numerical model for studying the evolution of a periodic wave train, shoaling, and breaking in surf zone. The model can solve the Reynolds averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations for a mean flow, and (he k-s equations for turbulence kinetic energy k and turbulence dissipation rate e. To track a free surface, the volume of fluid (VOF) function, satisfying the advection equation was introduced. In the numerical treatment, third-order upwind difference scheme was applied to the convection terms of the RANS equations in order to reduce the effect of numerical viscosity. The shoaling and breaking processes of a periodic wave train on gently sloping beaches were modeled. The computed wave heights of a sloping beach and the distribution of breaking wave pressure on a vertical wall were compared with laboratory data.     

信息科学与矿产预测

矿产预测实质上就是对成矿系统演化过程精确性表达的探索。面对时代发展的挑战，矿产预测将从过去以分析为主转变为以分析与信息综合相结合。一方面，人们将继续采用新的实验技术去了解地层、构造等因素的控矿机理。另一方面，现代信息科学的发展为理解成矿系统的非线性特性以及信息运动过程提供了必要的理论基础，虚拟现实技术的出现，为定量研究成矿系统各要素间相互作用提供了新的技术支持，为高精度成矿预测综合信息模型的建立创造条件。     

Evaluation of three harvest control rules for Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) fisheries in the Indian Ocean

The stock of Bigeye tuna(Thunnus obesus) in the Indian Ocean supports an important international fishery and is considered to be fully exploited. The responsible management agency, the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission(IOTC), does not have an explicit management decision-making framework in place to prevent over-fishing. In this study, we evaluated three harvest control rules, i) constant fishing mortality(CF), from 0.2 to 0.6, ii) constant catch(CC), from 60000 to 140000 t, and iii) constant escapement(CE), from 0.3 to 0.7. The population dynamics simulated by the operating model was based on the most recent stock assessment using Stock Synthesis version Ⅲ(SS3). Three simulation scenarios(low, medium and high productivity) were designed to cover possible uncertainty in the stock assessment and biological parameters. Performances of three harvest control rules were compared on the basis of three management objectives(over 3, 10 and 25 years): i) the probability of maintaining spawning stock biomass above a level that can sustain maximum sustainable yield(MSY) on average, ii) the probability of achieving average catches between 0.8 MSY and 1.0 MSY, and iii) inter-annual variability in catches. The constant escapement strategy(CE=0.5), constant fishing mortality strategy(F=0.4) and constant catch(CC=80000) were the most rational among the respective management scenarios. It is concluded that the short-term annual catch is suggested at 80000 t, and the potential total allowable catch for a stable yield could be set at 120000 t once the stock had recovered successfully. All the strategies considered in this study to achieve a ‘tolerable' balance between resource conservation and utilization have been based around the management objectives of the IOTC.     

地下水化学组成的时空聚类分析与多级嵌套水流系统识别

水文地球化学是识别地下水流系统的重要方法,然而区域尺度上多级嵌套地下水流系统的复杂性使地下水化学组成的分析和解释难度增加。以鄂尔多斯北部盆地湖泊集中区典型的胡同察汗淖地下水流系统为例,基于丰水期和枯水期3个期次不同深度地下水样品的物理化学数据,应用时空聚类与主成分分析方法,揭示地下水化学组成的空间分布特征、变化规律及其作用机制,分析水化学时空聚类结果对多级嵌套地下水流系统划分的可行性。该聚类结果将地下水样品分为3类,其中C1为以Na-HCO₃型为主的深层地下水,具有偏负的氢氧同位素组成(δD<-70‰,δ¹⁸O<-9‰)和极低浓度的NO^-₃;C2为Ca-HCO₃为主的浅层地下水,具有偏正的氢氧同位素组成(δD>-70‰,δ¹⁸O>-9‰)和高浓度的NO^-₃;而C3呈无优势阳离子、δD和δ¹⁸O变化范围大且显著线性相关等深、浅地下水混合特征。呈南北条带分布在苏贝淖-胡同...     

The impact of spatial autocorrelation on CPUE standardization between two different fisheries

Catch per unit of eff ort(CPUE) data can display spatial autocorrelation. However, most of the CPUE standardization methods developed so far assumes independency of observations for the dependent variable, which is often invalid. In this study, we collected data of two fisheries, squid jigging fishery and mackerel trawl fishery. We used standard generalized linear model(GLM) and spatial GLMs to compare the impact of spatial autocorrelation on CPUE standardization for different fisheries. We found that spatialGLMs perform better than standard-GLM for both fisheries. The overestimation of precision of CPUE estimates was observed in both fisheries. Moran's I was used to quantify the level of autocorrelation for the two fisheries. The results show that autocorrelation in mackerel trawl fishery was much stronger than that in squid jigging fishery. According to the results of this paper, we highly recommend to account for spatial autocorrelation when using GLM to standardize CPUE data derived from commercial fisheries.