Modeling economic systems as locally-constructive sequential games

Real-world economies are open-ended dynamic systems consisting of heterogeneous interacting participants. Human participants are decision-makers who strategically take into account the past actions and potential future actions of other participants. All participants are forced to be locally constructive, meaning their actions at any given time must be based on their local states; and participant actions at any given time affect future local states. Taken together, these essential properties imply real-world economies are locally-constructive sequential games. This paper discusses a modeling approach, Agent-based Computational Economics (ACE), that permits researchers to study economic systems from this point of view. ACE modeling principles and objectives are first concisely presented and explained. The remainder of the paper then highlights challenging issues and edgier explorations that ACE researchers are currently pursuing.     

Public support for economic transition

This paper focuses on the Czech economic transition and aims to identify the determinants of unusually high and long-lasting public support for market reforms. The study is based on a unique combination of statistical analysis of survey data and oral history (interviews with reformers, managers etc.), which has enabled us to depict the views of the general public as well as of many people involved in decision-making processes on both macro and micro levels. These findings allow us to propose recommendations on how to gain and maintain public support for economic reforms. Above all, reformers must utilize the period of euphoria and communicate the individual steps of reform with the public.     

陈云社会主义经济建设思想及其当代价值研究

陈云的社会主义经济建设思想是一个完整的体系,内容十分丰富,主要包括:立足中国实际,建设有利于人民的社会主义经济;搞好综合平衡,促使国民经济按比例发展;重视市场调节,保证计划和市场相结合;坚持经济建设,兼顾人口、资源、环境协调发展。在新时期新形势下,陈云社会主义经济建设思想对我国经济的发展仍然具有重要的理论价值及现实意义。     

The end of economic transition

The transition from plan to market was the largest natural experiment in economics ever. Now, 20 years from the start of transition, all former socialist countries are market economies at the middle stage of economic development, and convergence with neighbours, if not with the developed world, is largely achieved. With hindsight, it is clear that economists have spent too much time debating proper sequencing of reforms and the fine‐tuning of reform packages. At the same time, the magnitude of the output and consumption fall in some countries was vastly underestimated, while the benefits of reforms have taken longer to materialize than expected. Successful practitioners of reform praise perseverance during and after the initial setbacks and willingness to make political compromises. At the conclusion of the natural experiment, transition economics has all but vanished as an academic discipline, although it played a crucial role in the formation of modern political economics.     

Understanding South Africa's economic puzzles*

South Africa has undergone a remarkable transformation since its democratic transition in 1994, but economic growth and employment generation have been disappointing. Most worryingly, unemployment is currently among the highest in the world. While the proximate cause of high unemployment is that prevailing wages levels are too high, the deeper cause lies elsewhere, and is intimately connected to the inability of the South African to generate much growth momentum in the past decade. High unemployment and low growth are both ultimately the result of the shrinkage of the non‐mineral tradable sector since the early‐1990s. The weakness in particular of export‐oriented manufacturing has deprived South Africa of growth opportunities as well as of job creation at the relatively low end of the skill distribution. Econometric analysis identifies the decline in the relative profitability of manufacturing in the 1990s as the most important contributor to the lack of vitality in that sector.     

Outsiders in economic integrationThe case of a transition economy

We use a spatial model of endogenous growth to investigate the likely impact of discriminatory integration between two advanced insider countries on their own welfare as well as on the welfare of an outsider transition economy. A first point is that, since convergence in per capita income levels depends on relative market access and local market size, piece-wise integration causes insider-outsider divergence. Nonetheless, outsiders can gain in absolute terms if integration fosters the global growth rate. We also show that exclusion from a regional agreement and on-going transition have unpredictable joint effects on the structural adjustment, which might even exhibit a swinging behaviour. Such swings may imply large adjustment costs, which can be reduced by careful integration design. With this respect, the asymmetric phasing-out of trade barriers built into the Europe Agreements seems to work in the right direction. Finally, we point out that the predictions of the model in terms of direct investment and terms-of-trade dynamics are broadly consistent with some actual developments in transition economies.     

Investment behavior and investment aggregates during China’s economic transition

In view of the peculiar patterns of investment ownership structure and special investment phenomena in China, the paper sets up formal dynamic investment behavioral models for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-state-owned enterprises (NSOEs) under the background of full-dimensional and gradual economic transition. The models are based on two key points: entrepreneurs of SOEs have dual and changing operational objectives as the result of property-rights reformation; and dual-track approach of price liberalization process and reformation of financing system alters the actual user costs of capital goods. Analytical solutions are provided and it is shown that there exists a normative and unified explanation of the peculiar phenomena such as “investment deficiency” of NSOEs, “investment thirst”, “investment inefficiency,” and dual shrinkage of SOEs in both investment and output. Our research also sheds lights on evaluation of preceding reforms, understanding of SOEs’ losses and bad bank loans. The paper partially justifies the property-rights-oriented reformation of SOEs. __________ Translated from the China Economic Quarterly (经恎学季刊),2005, (7) (in Chinese)     

How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?

How does inward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect a transitional economy? This study attempts to analyze the role of FDI in China’s income growth and market‐oriented transition. We first identify possible channels through which FDI may have positive or negative effects on the Chinese economy. Using a growth model and cross‐section and panel data for the period 1984‐98, we provide an empirical assessment, which suggests that FDI seems to help China’s transition and promote income growth, and that this positive growth effect seems to rise over time and to be stronger in the coastal than the inland regions. JEL classification: F21, F23, O53.     

The welfare of pensioners during economic transition: an analysis of Hungarian survey data1

This paper examines the welfare of pensioners over the early transition period 1987-93 in Hungary. We describe the pension system in detail, and demonstrate the tendency towards compression of the pensioner income distribution towards low income which is induced by the rules and indexation provisions of the pension system. We use the Hungarian Household Budget Surveys to analyse the growth of poverty among the pensioner population and to compare their experience with two other distributionally sensitive groups: households with children and households affected by unemployment.     

经济转轨中国有资本比重的最优路径选择——一个动态模型

This paper presents a dynamic model based on the utility maximum decisions of both the government and private sectors to study the optimal withdrawing path of state-owned capital in economic transition. Numerical simulation shows that: (1) an optimal transition path still exists when treating government and private sectors separately, (2) when the transition cost is higher than its critical value, the economy will never start a transition by itself. In addition, this analysis offers theoretical supports for some reform policies adopted by governments during transition. __________ Translated from Jingjixue Jikan 经济学(季刊) (China Economic(Quarterly)), 2007, 6(2): 561–580     

Ten lessons from a quarter of a century of post-communist economic transformation

The dominant idea in the early post-communist economic transition was that an early and comprehensive radical economic reform programme was needed. This program was accompanied by a clear programme of political economy reform, which included; a clear understanding that the old system was finished, a political breakthrough, new political leaders, new economic policymakers, the swift elaboration of a reform programme, a functioning parliament, sufficient international financial support, fast implementation, public understanding, and the overruling of any need for consensus. In hindsight, all of these factors worked when they were present. Critics warned of too sharp an output fall, which did not come to pass, lagging institutional development, and neglect of social reforms. The biggest problem has become the absence of real property rights because of captured judicial systems in the post-communist countries not belonging to the European Union.     

The Washington Consensus revisited: a new structural economics perspective

The Washington Consensus reform resulted in economic collapse and stagnation in many transition economies and “lost decades” in other developing countries in 1980s and 1990s. The paper provides a new structural economics perspective of such failures. The Washington Consensus reform failed to recognize that many firms in a transition economy were not viable in an open, competitive market because those industries went against the comparative advantages determined by the economy’s endowment structure. Their survival relied on the government’s protections and subsidies through various interventions and distortions. The Washington Consensus advised the government to focus their reforms on issues related to property rights, corporate governance, government interventions, and other issues that may obstruct a firm’s normal management. Without resolving the firms’ viability problem, such reforms led to the firms’ collapse and an unintended decline and stagnation of the economy in the transition process. This paper suggests that the viability assumption in neoclassical economics be relaxed when analyzing development and transition issues in socialist, transition, and developing economies.     

Fourth Annual Convention of the Catholic Economic Association Hotel Cleveland,Cleveland, Ohio January 24, 1946

The paper criticizes the corporation from a liberal-capitalist point of view, arguing that incorporation violates the right and responsibilities of private ownership. Aspects of current capitalist practice which popularly concentration, speculative instability and excessive growth/profit orientation) are traced back to the corporate form rather that to genuinely capitalist institutions such as private property and free exchange. Some disadvantages connected to the proposed repeal of incorporation for private enterprise are discussed.     

Adam Smith's theory of economic history and economic development

Abstract

The aim of the paper is to show that Smith has a theory of economic history grounded in a politico-economic modeling (as well as a sort of economic theoretical modeling). In terms of the politico-economic approach, in the Wealth of Nations (Book III.ii–iv) Smith tried to offer a systematic account of economic development from feudalism to capitalism in Europe. These lead to suggest that the seeming internal inconsistency between the natural and the actual courses of progress in Book III may be resolved, and that Smith may be treated as a precursor of Douglass North, who stressed an inextricable link between the polity and the economy in economic history.     

The best way of bilateral special economic zone to Sino-Vietnam economic cooperation

The Bilateral Special Economic Zones is a new idea about economic co-operation ways. It is going to be set by both countries with a common boundary for promoting the economic co-operation between two sides. It can be firstly set along the boundary between China and Vietnam. It will promote the economic co-operation between them, but China and ASEAN. It can be set along the Chinese boundary with the neighboring countries and will promote the economic co-operation between the both sides for setting up a better environment around China.     

Export variety and economic growth in East European transition economies*

Utilizing panel data for 14 East European transition economies, we discuss the link between product variety and growth. The empirical work relies upon some direct measures of product variety calculated from 5‐digit OECD trade data. On balance, the results suggest that the growth patterns of the East European transition countries may be best represented by Ventura's (1997 ) model of outward orientation and integration with the world economy.     

The Lost Promise of Democratic Socialism in Russia

To explain the failure to create democratic socialism in Russia after the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution, I apply Thorstein Veblen’s vision of economic democracy as a cure for vested interests. In late imperial Russia, many socialist thinkers imagined socialism primarily in terms of workplace democracy, worker ownership, local governance, and economic decentralization. Their vision was destroyed, first, by Bolshevik policies and then by Stalin’s tyrannical command economy. Thereafter, vested interests reemerged in the Soviet Union as an underground economy, rife with theft of public resources, and then, with the beginning of transition, capitalism in its most neoliberal form was restored.     

A Feminist Comparative Economic Systems

Abstract

This study proposes that feminist research be integrated into the field of comparative economic systems (CES) and that CES return to its traditional institutionalist methodologies to facilitate more complete analyses of economic systems and feminist alternatives to these systems and institutions. The study describes the evolution of CES, drawing attention to an increasing reliance on econometric modeling that reflects a shift in focus away from systems. An inventory of research on women and gender that has appeared in CES journals and textbooks finds little on topics other than formal labor markets in transition economies. The study contrasts this literature on women and gender in transition economies to research on this topic by women from transition economies, a literature that CES journal authors do not reference. It concludes by proposing a feminist economics approach that focuses on gender-differentiated impacts of economic systems, analyses of households, and equity as a measure of progress.     

Technical change and wage premiums amongst skilled labour: Evidence from the economic transition

I present reduced-form and structural evidence that the reorganization of the Russian economy in the post-transitional period increased the demand on law and business graduates. This demand shock provides a novel unified explanation of the Russian wage structure for 1985–2015. I then show that this shock is a common feature of all transitional economies, and it contributed to the transformational recession. The demand behaviour is identified with a new skill-biased technical change model of demand for skills with three production inputs (high school graduates and bachelor-level educations with two majors), showing that a technology shift that favours a particular skill might emerge within the skilled group rather than between skilled and unskilled. This is relevant because similar shifts (e.g., data scientists vs. liberal arts) emerge today in the frontier economies that adopt new general-purpose technologies (e.g., machine learning). Thus, this paper informs policymakers today on tools to counteract a potential drop in economic equality and performance that result from this adoption. Lastly, because of similarities between the mechanics of the transition and the 2022 sanctions to discourage Russia's war effort, my results highlight the importance of additional sanctions against the education system to prevent the regime's structural adaptation and preservation.