The principles of calibrating traffic microsimulation models

Traffic microsimulation models normally include a large number of parameters that must be calibrated before the model can be used as a tool for prediction. A wave of methodologies for calibrating such models has been recently proposed in the literature, but there have been no attempts to identify general calibration principles based on their collective experience. The current paper attempts to guide traffic analysts through the basic requirements of the calibration of microsimulation models. Among the issues discussed here are underlying assumptions of the calibration process, the scope of the calibration problem, formulation and automation, measuring goodness-of-fit, and the need for repeated model runs.

Bayesian inference for day-to-day dynamic traffic models

There is significant current interest in the development of models to describe the day-to-day evolution of traffic flows over a network. We consider the problem of statistical inference for such models based on daily observations of traffic counts on a subset of network links. Like other inference problems for network-based models, the critical difficulty lies in the underdetermined nature of the linear system of equations that relates link flows to the latent path flows. In particular, Bayesian inference implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods requires that we sample from the set of route flows consistent with the observed link flows, but enumeration of this set is usually computationally infeasible.We show how two existing conditional route flow samplers can be adapted and extended for use with day-to-day dynamic traffic. The first sampler employs an iterative route-by-route acceptance–rejection algorithm for path flows, while the second employs a simple Markov model for traveller behaviour to generate candidate entire route flow patterns when the network has a tree structure. We illustrate the application of these methods for estimation of parameters that describe traveller behaviour based on daily link count data alone.     

Comparison of parametric and nonparametric models for traffic flow forecasting

Single point short-term traffic flow forecasting will play a key role in supporting demand forecasts needed by operational network models. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), a classic parametric modeling approach to time series, and nonparametric regression models have been proposed as well suited for application to single point short-term traffic flow forecasting. Past research has shown seasonal ARIMA models to deliver results that are statistically superior to basic implementations of nonparametric regression. However, the advantages associated with a data-driven nonparametric forecasting approach motivate further investigation of refined nonparametric forecasting methods. Following this motivation, this research effort seeks to examine the theoretical foundation of nonparametric regression and to answer the question of whether nonparametric regression based on heuristically improved forecast generation methods approach the single interval traffic flow prediction performance of seasonal ARIMA models.     

Macroscopic traffic models for vehicle-follower automated transportation systems

The problem of distributing and routing vehicles in a large automated transportation network may be approached through the design of on-line control algorithms, particularly when the network contains many origin-destination pairs and alternate routes. To develop such algorithms, it is necessary to obtain models that accurately represent the dynamic behavior of vehicles on the guideway network. In this paper, models based on density, flow and average velocity variables are derived for the vehicle-follower longitudinal control scheme. Models suitable for use in analysis and simulation work are developed for links, merges, diverges, and stations. The proposed models are shown to compare favorably with simulation results that use explicit modeling of vehicle dynamic modeling of vehicle dynamic interaction.     

Genetics of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning

This paper presents a review and classification of traffic assignment models for strategic transport planning purposes by using concepts analogous to genetics in biology. Traffic assignment models share the same theoretical framework (DNA), but differ in capability (genes). We argue that all traffic assignment models can be described by three genes. The first gene determines the spatial capability (unrestricted, capacity restrained, capacity constrained, and capacity and storage constrained) described by four spatial assumptions (shape of the fundamental diagram, capacity constraints, storage constraints, and turn flow restrictions). The second gene determines the temporal capability (static, semi-dynamic, and dynamic) described by three temporal assumptions (wave speeds, vehicle propagation speeds, and residual traffic transfer). The third gene determines the behavioural capability (all-or-nothing, one shot, and equilibrium) described by two behavioural assumptions (decision-making and travel time consideration). This classification provides a deeper understanding of the often implicit assumptions made in traffic assignment models described in the literature. It further allows for comparing different models in terms of functionality, and paves the way for developing novel traffic assignment models.     

A combined use of microscopic traffic simulation and extreme value methods for traffic safety evaluation

This paper proposes a combined usage of microscopic traffic simulation and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) for safety evaluation. Ten urban intersections in Fengxian District in Shanghai were selected in the study and three calibration strategies were applied to develop simulation models for each intersection: a base strategy with fundamental data input, a semi-calibration strategy adjusting driver behavior parameters based on Measures of Effectiveness (MOE), and a full-calibration strategy altering driver behavior parameters by both MOE and Measures of Safety (MOS). SSAM was used to extract simulated conflict data from vehicle trajectory files from VISSIM and video-based data collection was introduced to assist trained observers to collect field conflict data. EVT-based methods were then employed to model both simulated/field conflict data and derive the Estimated Annual Crash Frequency (EACF), used as Surrogate Safety Measures (SSM). PET was used for EVT measurement for three conflict types: crossing, rear-end, and lane change. EACFs based on three simulation calibration strategies were compared with field-based EACF, conventional SSM based on Traffic Conflict Techniques (TCT), and actual crash frequency, in terms of direct correlation, rank correlation, and prediction accuracy. The results showed that, MOS should be considered during simulation model calibration and EACF based on the full-calibration strategy appeared to be a better choice for simulation-based safety evaluation, compared to other candidate safety measures. In general, the combined usage of microscopic traffic simulation and EVT is a promising tool for safety evaluation.     

Visualisation of uncertainty in probabilistic traffic models for policy and operations

This study investigates different methods to visualise uncertainty in static representations of probabilistic traffic models predictions on road-networks. Although various graphical cues may be used to represent uncertainty it is not a priori clear which of them are most suited for this purpose, since their legibility, intelligibility and the degree to which they interfere with other graphical elements in a representation differ widely. Several graphical uncertainty representations were therefore developed and analysed in expert sessions. A selection of the initial set of uncertainty visualisations was further evaluated in a cognitive alternative task-switching experiment. The results show that graphical representations are able to convey uncertainty information relatively accurately, while some uncertainty visualisations outperform others. It depends on the model and scenario which representation is most suited for a given application. This paper presents an overview of possible graphic uncertainty representations and the considerations involved when applying them to uncertainty in traffic model visualisations.     

Network models in traffic management and control

Abstract

The context for network modelling in traffic management and control is described in terms of the current area‐wide nature of traffic management and the range of objectives to which it can contribute. Representation of a road system and traffic management measures in terms of nodes and links and parameters associated with them is described. It is shown that the pattern of traffic has to be represented not only in terms of flows on links of the network but also in terms of numbers of movements per unit time between points of entry to and points of exit from the area being modelled. In modelling so far, these numbers of movements are regarded as given, but the routes taken are estimated by traffic assignment. Models can so far be used for comparison of a range of given schemes and for optimization of traffic control within a scheme. Variation over time is a central feature of the modelling, and this requires the use of time‐dependent queueing theory, and the specification of numbers of movements for a succession of periods of between 10 and 30 minutes. Theoretical approaches to the resulting problems of modelling and optimization are discussed, and the ways in which these are supplemented by heuristic methods in currently available models is described. Some requirements‐for further research are outlined.     

Development of network restructuring models for improved air traffic forecasts

Current air traffic forecast methods employed by the United States Federal Aviation Administration function under the assumption that the structure of the network of routes operated by airlines will not change; that is, no new routes will be added nor existing ones removed. However, in reality the competitive nature of the airline industry is such that new routes are routinely added between cities possessing significant passenger demand; city-pairs are also removed. Such phenomena generates a gap between the forecasted and actual state of the US Air Transportation System in the long term, providing insufficient situational awareness to major stakeholders and decision-makers in their consideration of major policy and technology changes. To address this gap, we have developed and compared three algorithms that forecast the likelihood of un-connected city-pairs being connected by service in the future, primarily based on the nodal characteristics of airports in the US network. Validation is performed by feeding historical data to each algorithm and then comparing the accuracy and precision of new city-pairs forecasted using knowledge of actual new city-pairs that developed. While an Artificial Neural Network produces superior precision, fitness function and logistic regression algorithms provide good representation of the distribution of new route types as well as greater flexibility for modeling future scenarios. However, these latter two algorithms face difficulty in resolving differences among the large number of ‘spoke’ airports in the network – additional parameters that may be able to differentiate them are currently under review. These insights gained are valuable stepping stones for exploiting knowledge of restructuring in the service route network to improve overall forecasts that drive policy and technology decision-making.     

Optimization-based assisted calibration of traffic simulation models

Use of traffic simulation has increased in recent decades; and this high-fidelity modelling, along with moving vehicle animation, has allowed transportation decisions to be made with better confidence. During this time, traffic engineers have been encouraged to embrace the process of calibration, in which steps are taken to reconcile simulated and field-observed performance. According to international surveys, experts, and conventional wisdom, existing (non-automated) methods of calibration have been difficult or inadequate. There has been extensive research on improved calibration methods, but many of these efforts have not produced the flexibility and practicality required by real-world engineers. With this in mind, a patent-pending (US 61/859,819) architecture for software-assisted calibration was developed to maximize practicality, flexibility, and ease-of-use. This architecture is called SASCO (i.e. Sensitivity Analysis, Self-Calibration, and Optimization). The original optimization method within SASCO was based on “directed brute force” (DBF) searching; performing exhaustive evaluation of alternatives in a discrete, user-defined search space. Simultaneous Perturbation Stochastic Approximation (SPSA) has also gained favor as an efficient method for optimizing computationally expensive, “black-box” traffic simulations, and was also implemented within SASCO. This paper uses synthetic and real-world case studies to assess the qualities of DBF and SPSA, so they can be applied in the right situations. SPSA was found to be the fastest method, which is important when calibrating numerous inputs, but DBF was more reliable. Additionally DBF was better than SPSA for sensitivity analysis, and for calibrating complex inputs. Regardless of which optimization method is selected, the SASCO architecture appears to offer a new and practice-ready level of calibration efficiency.     

Second-order models and traffic data from mobile sensors

Mobile sensing enabled by GPS or smart phones has become an increasingly important source of traffic data. For sufficient coverage of the traffic stream, it is important to maintain a reasonable penetration rate of probe vehicles. From the standpoint of capturing higher-order traffic quantities such as acceleration/deceleration, emission and fuel consumption rates, it is desirable to examine the impact on the estimation accuracy of sampling frequency on vehicle position. Of the two issues raised above, the latter is rarely studied in the literature. This paper addresses the impact of both sampling frequency and penetration rate on mobile sensing of highway traffic. To capture inhomogeneous driving conditions and deviation of traffic from the equilibrium state, we employ the second-order phase transition model (PTM). Several data fusion schemes that incorporate vehicle trajectory data into the PTM are proposed. And, a case study of the NGSIM dataset is presented which shows the estimation results of various Eulerian and Lagrangian traffic quantities. The findings show that while first-order traffic quantities can be accurately estimated even with a low sampling frequency, higher-order traffic quantities, such as acceleration, deviation, and emission rate, tend to be misinterpreted due to insufficiently sampled vehicle locations. We also show that a correction factor approach has the potential to reduce the sensing error arising from low sampling frequency and penetration rate, making the estimation of higher-order quantities more robust against insufficient data coverage of the highway traffic.     

Air traffic management: Optimization models and algorithms

Current air traffic control systems are mainly conceived to ensure the safety of flights by means of tactical interventions, because of the difficulty of accurately foreseeing the traffic evolution. In fact, in real traffic conditions, planes are often penalized since sometimes safety standards are redundant. Today, this management philosophy is no longer valid because of congestion phenomena which often occur in the most important terminal areas. Therefore, as to future control systems it is necessary to introduce not only more automated procedures to keep adequate safety levels, but also planning functions in order to increase the system capacity and to improve system efficiency. In recent years several studies have been carried out, new control concepts have been introduced and some optimization models and algorithms developed to improve air traffic management. In this paper a survey of our early works in this field is reported and a multilevel model of air traffic management is proposed and discussed. The functions corresponding to the on-line control, that is flow control, strategic control of flights and aircraft sequencing in a terminal area, are examined and the optimization models and solution algorithms are illustrated. Finally, relevant problems coped by recent research are mentioned and new trends are indicated.     

Some features of non-linear travel time models for dynamic traffic assignment

Abstract

This paper investigates some features of non-linear travel time models for dynamic traffic assignment (DTA) that adopt traffic on the link as the sole determinant for the calculation of travel time and have explicit relationships between travel time and traffic on the link. Analytical proofs and numerical examples are provided to show first-in-first-out (FIFO) violation and the behaviour of decreasing outflow with increasing traffic in non-linear travel time models. It is analytically shown that any non-linear travel time model could violate FIFO in some circumstances, especially when inflow drops sharply, and some convex non-linear travel time models could show behaviour with outflow decreasing as traffic increases. It is also shown that the linear travel time model does not show these behaviours. A non-linear travel time model in general form was used for analytical proofs and several existing non-linear travel time models were adopted for numerical examples. Considering the features addressed in this study, non-linear travel time models seem to have limitations for use in DTA in practical terms and care should be taken when they are used for modelling time-varying transportation networks.     

Discrete and continuous models for computation of optimal vertical highway alignment

This paper describes a dynamic programming model and a state parametrization model formulated to solve two-dimensional highway location problems. A numerical example is presented to compare the solutions obtained using the two models. Features of the two approaches, with respect to their applicability in solving three-dimensional highway location problems in particular, are highlighted. This study forms the basis of a three-dimensional model that computes optimal horizontal and vertical alignments simultaneously.     

Regulating traffic by controlling land use The Southern California experience

In Los Angeles emphasis in transportation planning has recently shifted from facility construction to transportation system management and the control of land use with the goal of slowing the growth in traffic congestion. This paper critically examines several recent transportation growth management strategies in Los Angeles, and concludes that though they were well intentioned, they might not lead to the intended consequences.     

A review of models for the temporal distribution of peak traffic demand

The existing models for predicting the temporal distribution of peak traffic demand are reviewed in this paper. Based on their assumptions and concepts, the models are classified into three groups as follows: deterministic user equilibrium (DUE), stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) and system optimum (SO). The merits and weaknesses of each group are discussed with regards to the validity of their assumptions and computational problems associated with them. Most of the models were developed for the single origin-destination pair with simple network system which is an oversimplification of a practical problem involving multiple origin-destination pairs with complex network systems. This is a major limitation when considering the application of the existing models to real life problems. Directions for future research are then proposed.     

A review of Australian traffic system design models

The demands for traffic infrastructure are increasing. Yet over the last decade investment in new infrastructure has decreased at all levels. Traffic systems designers are, therefore, being asked to be more accurate in their prediction of the impacts of changes, to analyse ever more complex situations and to extract more from the existing traffic system. This paper reviews developments in techniques for analysing the impacts of changes in the traffic system. It looks at intersection, route, network, parking lot and public transport design models that have been developed in Australia. Particular emphasis is given to the considerable developments in microcomputers and graphics and the impact these are having on the models. Future developments are also discussed.     

Variability in sound power levels: Implications for static and dynamic traffic models

Classically, one mean vehicle representative of each category is used by both static and dynamic traffic noise prediction models. The spectrum associated with this mean vehicle is determined from a linear statistical regression analysis based on measurement campaigns on a track or in situ. However, the variability of individual vehicle emissions can influence predictions and hinder comparison between static and dynamic models. In order to estimate the induced bias, statistical analysis of the distributions of sound power levels emitted by the individual passage of vehicles during 82 measurement campaigns was carried out. The results show that 92% of the residual regression distributions are Gaussian and that standard deviations can reach 3.6 dBA. The value of the proposed correction term for this case study could reach 1.4 dBA for light vehicles and 1.2 dBA for heavy vehicles. This analysis also shows that the variability in sound power levels and thus the corresponding corrections are higher at the lowest speeds that correspond to urban driving conditions.