Characteristics Analysis and Risk Assessment of Extreme Water Levels Based on 60-Year Observation Data in Xiamen,China

Extreme water levels are related to astronomical tides and storm surges.Eleven typhoon systems,which have caused extreme water level rises,were selected based on 60-yr water level data from the Xiamen tide gauge station.In these 11 typhoon systems,the astronomical tide component accounts for 71%-95%of the total water level.The Gumbel distribution of extreme water level rise was estimated,and the impact of typhoon surges on water levels during the return period was analyzed.The ex-treme tide levels caused by typhoons Herb(1996)and Dujuan(2015)are much higher than those of other typhoons and correspond to the return period of 76 yr and 71 yr,respectively.The differences of sea levels in the presence and absence of these two typhoons in the 10-100 yr return period are 5.8-11.1 cm.For the 100-yr return period,the total risks within 10,25,50,and 100 yr increase by 94.3%,85.4%,72.9%,and 54.4%,respectively,if the Herb and Dujuan are not considered.Assuming that typhoon Herb(1996)occurred during the highest astronomical tide,it will produce a water level higher than that of the 1000-yr return period.Sea level rise has an important influence on the water level return period,and the contribution of nonlinear sea level rise in the next 100 yr is estimated to be 10.34%.     

Concentrations and distribution of organochlorine pesticides in shellfish from Changjiang estuary

To analyze and evaluate the status of organochlorine pollutants in the Changjiang (Yangtze River) estuary and adjacent waters, the concentrations of hexachlorocyclohexane (HCHs) and dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDTs) in shellfish collected in study area from 2006 to 2007 were determined with gas chromatography (GC). The concentration range of HCHs was (ND-12.13)×10-3 mg/kg wet weight and averaged at 0.54×10-3 mg/kg while the concentration of DDTs was in the range of (4.06-281.73) × 10-3 mg/kg with a mean of 57.52×10-3 mg/kg in the survey areas. The concentrations of DDTs in the shellfish were higher than HCHs', so that DDTs could be considered as typical organochlorine pollutants in the areas. The concentrations of DDTs in the shellfish were higher than HCHs', so that DDTs could be considered as typical organochlorines pollutants. The HCHs in all the shellfish conformed to the first level of criterion (0.02 mg/kg) of the Marion Biology Quality (GB 18421-2001), and that of DDTs in most samples were beyond the first level (0.01 mg/kg) but conformed to the second level (0.10 mg/kg). On average, α-HCH and δ-HCH occupied the most part of HCHs, while O,P'-DDT and P,P'-DDT occupied the most part of DDTs. The concentrations of organocholorine pesticides in shellfish samples varied in site and in species. The highest level occurred at the Shengsi (SS), followed by Yangkougang (YKG), Lvsi (LS), Dongyuan (DY) and Beibayao (BBY), low concentrations were observed at Changsha (CS), Beidaodi (BDD), and Gouqi (GQ). The concentration of HCHs and DDTs in most sites decreased clearly from 2006 to 2007 except for YKG, DY, BDD, LYS, and SS. All of above results suggested that the study area was slightly affected by organochlorine pesticide, special by DDTs.     

Prediction of china’s submerged coastal areas by sea level rise due to climate change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the greenhouse gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 (IPCC, 2001), and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year return period. The total flooding areas are 98.3×10³ and 104.9×10³ km² for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0×10³, 64.1×10³ and 15.3×10³ km² in 2050 and 5.2×10³, 67.8×10³ and 17.2×10³ km² in 2080, respectively.     

Prediction of China＇s Submerged Coastal Areas by Sea Level Rise due to Climate Change

Based on the simulation with the Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Model CCSM and Ocean Model POP under the green- house gas emission scenario of the IPCC SRES A2 （IPCC, 2001）, and on the earth crust subsidence and glacier melting data, the relative sea level change is obtained along the coast of China in the 21 st century. Using the SRTM elevation data the submergence of coastal low land is calculated under the extreme water level with a 100-year retum period. The total flooding areas are 98.3× 10^3 and 104.9× 10^3 km2 for 2050 and 2080, respectively. For the three regions most vulnerable to extreme sea level rise, i.e., the coast of Bohai Bay, the Yangtze River Delta together with neighboring Jiangsu Province and northern Zhejiang Province, and the Pearl River Delta, the flooded areas are 5.0× 10^3, 64.1×10^3 and 15.3 × 10^3 km2 in 2050 and 5.2 × 10^3, 67.8×10^3 and 17.2 × 10^3 km2 in 2080, respectively.     

Water discharge variability of Changjiang （Yangtze） and Huanghe （Yellow） Rivers and its response to climatic changes

Influences of large-scale climatic phenomena, such as the E1Nifio/La Nifia-Southem Oscillation （ENSO） and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, on the temporal variations of the annual water discharge at the Lijin station in the Huanghe （Yellow） River and at the Datong station in the Changjiang （Yangtze） River were examined. Using the empirical mode decomposition-maximum entropy spectral analysis （EMD- MESA） method, the 2- to 3-year, 8- to 14-year, and 23-year cyclical variations of the annual water discharge at the two stations were discovered. Based on the analysis results, the hydrological time series on the inter- annual to interdecadal scales were constructed. The results indicate that from 1950 to 2011, a significant downward trend occurred in the natural annual water discharge in Huanghe River. However, the changes in water discharge in Changjiang River basin exhibited a slightly upward trend. It indicated that the changes in the river discharge in the Huanghe basin were driven primarily by precipitation. Other factors, such as the precipitation over the Changjiang River tributaries, ice melt and evaporation contributed much more to the increase in the Changjiang River basin. Especially, the impacts of the inter-annual and inter-decadal climate oscillations such as ENSO and PDO could change the long-term patterns of precipitation over the basins of the two major rivers. Generally, low amounts of basin-wide precipitation on interannual to interdecadal scales over the two rivers corresponded to most of the warm ENSO events and the warm phases of the PDO, and vice versa. The positive phases of the PDO and ENSO could lead to reduced precipitation and consequently affect the long-term scale water discharges at the two rivers.     

气候变化和人类活动对长江流域水储量变化的影响研究

利用2002-08～2016-12 GRACE数据扣除泄漏影响得到的长江流域陆地水储量（TWS）变化,分析其时空变化特征和趋势。结果表明,在此期间长江流域TWS增速为0.13±0.12 cm/a;TWS变化大的区域,如泄漏改正后三峡库区TWS变化由约10 mm/a变为15~20 mm/a,并呈现更大的空间异质性。利用多种气象数据,从气候变化和人类活动角度深入研究长江流域水循环变化。结果表明,降水量与TWS变化在时间和空间上都具有较高的相关性,TWS变化延迟1~2个月;上游源头处温度是影响TWS变化的主导因素,温度升高加速了上游高山冰川融化,使TWS具有增长趋势;三峡工程的蓄水也导致TWS变化;ENSO是长江流域TWS变化的主要影响因素。     

IMPACTS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE ON SALT WATER INTRUSION IN THE CHANGJIANG RIVER ESTUARY

Sea level rise could increase the salinity of an estuary by altering the balance between fresh water and salt water. The implications of sea level rise for increasing salinity have been examined in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River estuary. By correlative analysis of chlorinity, discharge and tidal level and calculation of two-dimensional chlorinity, distribution of the Changjiang River estuary, the changes of the intensity and lasting hours of salt water intrusion at Wusong Station and the changes of chlorinity distribution in the South Branch of the Changjiang River estuary have been estimated when future sea level rises 50-100 cm. The intensity of salt water intrusion in the future will be far more serious than current trend.     

淄博市大武水源地岩溶水水位多年动态变化分析研究

山东省淄博市大武水源地是北方特大型岩溶水水源地,该文依托山东省2009度地质勘查项目,对大武水源地的位置、范围、面积、历年开采量进行了介绍,并着重对1976年、1990年及2009年等特征年岩溶水流场特征、岩溶水降落漏斗演变趋势及多年开采动态特征及影响因素进行了分析研究。为大武水源地合理开发利用岩溶地下水提供了科学依据。     

长江三角洲城市化地区植被初级生产力的时空变化研究

城市化过程对植被初级生产具有重要影响。以往研究主要集中于城市用地扩张对植被初级生产力的直接影响分析,而较少关注其间接效果。本文以长江三角洲地区为例,分别从地区尺度和城市尺度分别分析了2000-2013年植被初级生产力的时空变化,探讨了其与气温、降水量及城市建成区绿化覆盖率的关系。研究表明：地区尺度上,2000-2013年长江三角洲植被初级生产力呈现不断增加,其中城市建成区植被初级生产力呈现显著增加的趋势（P<0.05）;城市尺度上,城市建成区内植被初级生产力主要呈现增加的趋势,而其外围缓冲区内则与此相反。在当前气候变化背景下,这可能与城市建成区绿化覆盖率不断增加,及快速的城市扩张有关。     

The environment effect on fish assemblage structure in waters adjacent to the Changjiang （Yangtze） River estuary （1998-2001）

We collected fish abundance data in the Changjiang(Yangtze River) estuary and adjacent waters in November 1998,May 1999,November 2000,and May 2001.Using the data,we evaluated the characteristics of the fish assemblages at each site and investigated the effect of several environmental factors.We used a multivariate analysis,including community ordination methods such as detrended correspondence analysis(DCA) and canonical correspondence analysis(CCA),and two-way indicator species analysis(TWINSPAN).We analyz...     

Articulating China’s Science and Technology: Knowledge Collaboration Networks Within and Beyond the Yangtze River Delta Megalopolis in China

In this paper, we reconsider the defining but often overlooked ‘hinge' function of megalopolises by analyzing how megalopolises have articulated national and international urban systems in the context of a globalizing knowledge economy. Taking the case of China's Yangtze River Delta(YRD) region, we particularly focus on knowledge circulation within and beyond the YRD region by analyzing the pattern and process of knowledge collaboration at different geographical scales during the 2004–2014 period. Results show that the structure of scientific knowledge collaboration as reflected by co-publications has been strongest at the national scale whereas that of technological knowledge collaboration as measured by co-patents has been strongest at the global scale. Despite this difference, the structure of both scientific and technological knowledge collaboration has been functionally polycentric at the megalopolitan scale but become less so at the national and global scales. The ‘globally connected but locally disconnected' pattern of Shanghai's external knowledge collaboration suggests that the gateway role of the YRD megalopolis in promoting knowledge collaboration at different geographical scales will take time before it is fully realized.     

井水固体潮的调和分析方法及京14井调和分析结果

本文系统地论述了井水水位固体潮的调和分析方法,介绍了自动排除水位记录中短期扰动影响的预处理方法。对京14井水位观测资料进行分析后,获得了包括长周期波M_1在内的各类波的调和分析结果。其结果令人满意,表明调和分析和预处理方法可行,也说明京14井的井孔-含水层系统的封闭性和抗干扰性好,具有较强的记录井水固体潮的能力。     

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Filling of the Three Gorges Reservoir to the 135-m Level： Instant Effects on the Yangtze Discharge and Suspended Sediment Concentration Entering the Estuary

Via the valuable opportunity of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) 135-m filling in June 2003, the Yangtze discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) entering the estuary during the period from 15 May to 15 July 2003 were analyzed to examine the instant effects of the filling on them. The Yangtze discharge and SSC entering the estuary in the periods before, during and after the filling clearly indicated three phases: 1) the pre-storage phase characterized by natural conditions, in which the SSC incr...     

基于ESDA的长三角区域经济差异分析

区域经济发展不仅与区域自身相关,更受到周边区域的相互作用,基于此,本文引入ESDA技术(探索性空间数据分析)来分析区域经济差异。通过对长三角区域2001~2013年各市的人均GDP数据进行ESDA全局和局部自相关分析,描述了21世纪开始的13年以来长三角市域经济格局在空间上的分布及演化,并对空间格局成因进行了科学分析。结果表明:长三角地区表现出强的自相关,即相似城市间有显著的空间集聚特征,并且集聚特征逐年增强。然而,区域经济在空间分布上存在明显的不均衡,相离较远的地区差异还是很大,如上海、苏南地区与苏北、浙南地区。     

实解析函数在极值点附近的凹凸性

讨论了一类实解析函数在极小(大)值点附近存在凸(凹)性区间的条件,得到了如下主要结果:若非常值函数y=f(x)在x0处取得极小(大)值,且在x0的某一邻域G内实解析的,则存在x0的一小邻域G*G,使得原函数在G*上为凸(凹)的。