“十三五”规划碳减排目标下碳交易机制的博弈分析

基于碳排放许可值、CO_2减排技术与成本、碳交易参数的浮动性与不确定性,构建碳交易机制的区间两阶段不确定性随机规划模型(TISP),通过优化模型寻求系统净收益与CO_2排放许可的平衡点,结果表明,当μ=40%时,系统的净收益为最优,且系统的净收益在碳交易模式下高于非交易模式下的净收益;当μ40%时,燃煤电厂在碳交易模式下只需采用CS减排技术均能达到排放许可要求,在非交易模式下则同时采用CS和CA减排技术;当μ40%时,3种发电方式在保证CS减排技术的前提下,均要增加CA减排技术的处理.碳交易机制有利于减排技术的合理分配及用能权、碳排放权和排污权交易市场的建立,尽快实现市场化节能碳减排目标.     

基于GD_CGE模型的广东省碳排放权交易政策评估

为了评估广东省碳排放权交易制度设计对控制二氧化碳排放及经济发展可能发挥的作用,本文建立GD_CGE模型研究了在碳强度约束目标下碳交易政策的实施效果.首先分析了无减排约束和有减排约束情景下广东宏观经济(GDP)、能源消费总量和碳排放总量的发展趋势;进一步扩展减排约束情景,考察了在全省碳强度减排目标约束下,把电力、水泥、石化、钢铁、造纸、纺织六大部门纳入碳交易体系,并分别按照历史法和潜力法确定行业碳排放约束上限时,实施碳交易政策对宏观经济和能源消费量的影响,模拟了碳市场的交易情况和碳价格.结果表明:在碳强度目标控制下,实施碳交易政策可显著降低部门的减排成本,减小控制碳排放可能对全省GDP的影响,起到了促进广东省低成本节能减排的作用.     

我国碳交易试点政策的减排效应及地区差异

基于连续性双重差分等方法,评估2004～2017年我国碳交易试点政策的减排效应及地区差异,并分析其作用机制.结果显示,碳交易政策能使试点地区的碳排放强度下降9.5％,碳市场规模?活跃度每增加1％,将分别带来试点地区碳排放强度下降0.9％和0.7％.异质性影响上,碳交易政策对东中部地区的减排效应明显,对西部地区无明显作用...     

电网企业应对碳排放权交易市场的思考与建议

碳排放权交易(以下简称"碳交易")是为促进温室气体减排,减少二氧化碳排放所采用的市场机制。2016年1月,国家发改委印发通知提出2017年启动全国碳交易市场,并将电网企业纳入其中,交易范围为线损引起的二氧化碳排放。电网企业碳排放属间接排放,且与可再生能源消纳、跨省交易电量等不可控因素密切相关。本文通过分析国内外碳交易发展现状,研究电网企业碳排放核算方法、碳排放现状与趋势,并结合深圳供电局碳交易实践,提出了电网企业碳交易的有关工作建议,为电网企业碳减排提供参考。     

巴黎协定下中国碳排放权省域分配及减排潜力评估研究

通过构建碳排放权区域分配模型完成了省域分配,在此基础上与当前各地实际碳排放量进行比对,明晰了各自初始空间余额;而后对碳排放权欠缺地区的碳减排潜力进行了综合评估。研究结果表明：（1）我国30个省区碳排放权分配存在较大差异,其中云南配额最高,占比高达10.53%;宁夏配额最少,占比仅为0.28%。（2）全国有14个省区碳排放权初始空间余额表现出盈余状态,根据成因差异可大致分为“低排放、高配额”“低排放、低配额”以及“高排放、高配额”等三种类型;其他16个地区均表现出一定程度的欠缺,结合数值差异可划分为以江苏等4地为代表的轻度欠缺地区,以天津等7地为代表的中度欠缺地区,以及以辽宁等5地为代表的重度欠缺地区。（3）浙江、天津、山东等3地目前所具备的碳减排潜力要明显高于其他地区,而各地区的碳减排潜力水平虽与其碳排放权欠缺量表现出了一定趋同性但并非完全一致。     

碳交易背景下天津市电力行业碳排放强度与基准线

电力行业是我国碳排放权交易体系中的重要参与行业,开展区域电力行业碳排放强度分析与基准线设置研究,不仅有利于区域因地制宜地开展行业碳减排工作,同时对全国统一碳市场的建立尤其是电力行业配额分配方案的确定具有重要参考价值.基于天津市2014年15家主要发电企业的32台发电机组数据,在核算分析天津市电力行业碳排放强度的基础上,设置实际排放情景、现行标准先进值情景及综合减排情景等3组基准线情景,并展开对天津市电力行业碳减排的适用性分析.研究表明:①在数据和统计基础较好、产品单一的行业采用基准法进行配额分配,有利于碳市场资源的公平、合理配置,可有效促进区域电力行业低碳发展;②2014年天津市电力行业碳排放强度为822.9 g/（kW·h）,燃煤发电与燃气发电碳排放强度分别为824.4与502.0 g/（kW·h）;③发电碳排放强度可反应出单台机组的能耗和管理水平,燃煤发电方式下,采用压力参数高、机组容量大的机组发电更有利于降低区域碳强度;④综合减排情景既考虑了本地区电力行业碳排放水平,同时参考了其他省市基准线设定,对部分类型机组数量较少、代表性不足的地区适用性更强,该情景对地区电力行业低碳水平要求最为严格,虽然为企业减排带来一定压力,但更有利于区域行业减排,且对于排放强度较高的较小容量机组能够起到更强的激励作用.      

低碳农业在我国碳交易市场中的现状及发展探析

为了解决我国农业碳减排问题并实现农业可持续发展,本文对我国低碳农业以及碳排放交易市场的现状进行了研究,并提出了将农业碳交易纳入碳排放权交易市场,运用市场手段解决农业发展和碳减排问题。最后,对农业进入碳排放权交易市场的发展方向进行了探析,为我国低碳农业的发展和农业碳交易市场的建设提供参考和借鉴。     

中国电力行业CO2减排技术及成本研究

在"双碳"目标提出的背景下,电力行业作为首要的碳排放行业,将承担起更大的减排份额及减排责任.筛选了13种电力行业的关键减排技术,评估并比较了各减排技术在碳达峰年前后的减排潜力及减排成本的变化趋势,以每5年为1个时间节点,对边际碳减排成本曲线进行分析,最终从技术选择的角度确定电力行业情景年的最优减排成本方案.结果 表明:筛选的13种电力行业技术在2020,2025,2030,2035年的总碳减排潜力为4.7亿,7.0亿,5.0亿,5.4亿t,对应平均碳减排成本为8,67,242,464元/t.其中,2020年技术的边际减排成本为-295～376元/t.从技术类型而言,各项减排技术在边际减排成本曲线(MACC)上表现出特异性,相较于系统灵活性提升和技术升级改造,电源结构优化具有更高的碳减排潜力及更低的碳减排成本.研究为电力行业在选择最优减排技术方案时提供了成本角度的数据参考.     

基于碳减排成本的我国省域碳补偿机制

合理界定碳排放责任,开展省域间碳补偿是促进区域协同减排的重要途径.基于2017年多区域投入产出表,使用增加值贸易分解方法对各省市碳排放进行了分解,测算了省域间的隐含碳流动,并设计了基于减排成本的差异化碳补偿机制,为我国开展横向碳补偿提供了参考.结果表明：(1)省内最终需求引致碳排放占比53.56%、省外最终需求引致碳排放占比32.49%,省域间隐含碳流动显著存在;(2)隐含碳总体呈现出从北部、中部地区向京津地区和东南沿海地区转移的显著流动特征;(3)生产者、消费者和责任共担视角下各省市的碳排放总量相等,其中责任共担的分配思路体现了“受益原则”.(4)省域间碳减排成本存在差异,碳减排成本低的地区直接碳排放量高,产业以重工业为主,碳减排成本高的地区直接碳排放量低,产业以高新技术产业和服务业为主.(5)基于减碳成本各省市需支付(接受)的补偿金额不等,其中,广东需支付的补偿金额最高,内蒙古的受偿金额最高.     

中国电力行业CO2减排技术及成本研究

在"双碳"目标提出的背景下,电力行业作为首要的碳排放行业,将承担起更大的减排份额及减排责任.筛选了13种电力行业的关键减排技术,评估并比较了各减排技术在碳达峰年前后的减排潜力及减排成本的变化趋势,以每5年为1个时间节点,对边际碳减排成本曲线进行分析,最终从技术选择的角度确定电力行业情景年的最优减排成本方案.结果 表明:筛选的13种电力行业技术在2020,2025,2030,2035年的总碳减排潜力为4.7亿,7.0亿,5.0亿,5.4亿t,对应平均碳减排成本为8,67,242,464元/t.其中,2020年技术的边际减排成本为-295～376元/t.从技术类型而言,各项减排技术在边际减排成本曲线(MACC)上表现出特异性,相较于系统灵活性提升和技术升级改造,电源结构优化具有更高的碳减排潜力及更低的碳减排成本.研究为电力行业在选择最优减排技术方案时提供了成本角度的数据参考.     

巴黎协定生效下的中国省际碳排放权分配研究

随着《巴黎协定》正式生效,碳排放权作为关系人类福祉的一种新型发展权,如何分配已成为世界各国共同关注的焦点问题.中国是全球最大的碳排放国,面临着巨大的减排压力.为分解落实我国政府提出的2030年碳减排"自主行动目标",提出公平性、效率性、可行性、可持续性4项分配原则,从社会、经济、环境三重维度系统选取分配指标,构建"共同但有区别"的省际碳排放权分配模型,据此对31个省区2016—2030年的碳排放配额进行核算.研究表明,碳排放配额最多为广东、山东和江苏,最少为西藏、新疆和青海.对比配额结果与当前碳排放规模发现,山西等9省区未来的碳排放空间呈现赤字,海南等16省区的碳排放空间呈现盈余,浙江等6省区则收支大致相抵.鉴于各省区面临不同的减排任务和压力,差别化的控排政策是保证我国"2030目标"顺利实现的关键.     

中国省域碳排放强度的集聚效应和辐射效应研究

估算了中国1997—2013年30个省(市、自治区)的碳排放强度数据,并利用全局Moran's Ⅰ指数、局域Moran's Ⅰ指数以及莫兰散点图从集聚效应和辐射效应两个角度考察了我国区域碳排放强度空间分布特征.结果显示:1集聚效应:我国省域碳排放强度具有明显的空间集聚特征,碳排放强度水平相似区域倾向于相邻分布;另外,碳排放强度空间分布呈现不断优化的趋势,即"低-低"集聚不断增加,"高-高"集聚逐渐减少.2辐射效应:内蒙古、宁夏和山西等省对周边地区的碳排放强度具有明显的正向辐射效应,广东、福建和浙江等省对周边地区碳排放强度具有明显的负向辐射效应.最后,据此提出政策建议.     

Options for Emission Allowance Allocation Under the Eu Emissions Trading Directive

The article investigates four alternative allocation schemes for emission allowances. The investigated schemes are emission-based allocation, production-based allocation with actor-specific emission factors, production-based allocation with benchmarking and production-based allocation based on data on best available technology (BAT). All the examined schemes apply free allocation based on historical activities. The allocation schemes are evaluated against the criteria for a National Allocation Plan, listed in the Annex III of the EU ETS Directive, and regarding their conformity with the criteria put forward by the Swedish Parliamentary Delegation on Flexible Mechanisms, The FlexMex 2 Commission. No allocation scheme unambiguously meets all criteria. Each has its advantages and disadvantages. Emission-based allocation schemes are most straightforward, transparent and are the easiest to implement. Production-based allocation schemes meet more of the criteria, but are more costly to implement and require more data. Data on BAT will not be available to the extent necessary in order to base an allocation scheme implemented for the trading starting 2005 on BAT. It is unlikely that any given allocation scheme will be perceived as fair by all concerned parties, no matter how sophisticated it is. The overall characteristics of the studied allocation schemes are summarised in the paper. Due to the lack of abatement cost curves, it is not possible to accurately model capital flows between the trading sectors. Data availability will most probably limit the options available to the authorities designing the allocation schemes. An erratum to this article is available at .     

效率视角下中国2030年二氧化碳排放峰值目标的省区分解——基于零和收益DEA模型的研究

实现2030年二氧化碳排放达到峰值不仅是中国在全球气候谈判中做出的国际承诺,也是中国实现经济结构转型的必然选择,而对二氧化碳排放峰值进行合理的区域分解是中国实现二氧化碳排放达峰的必要前提.本文首先对中国2030年二氧化碳排放峰值进行初始的省区分解,利用DEA-BCC模型对初始省区分解方案进行效率评估,在此基础上利用零和收益DEA模型得到全部省区达到有效的中国二氧化碳排放峰值省区分解方案.本文研究表明：1大部分省区初始分解方案的效率值较低,只有2个省区的效率值达到DEA有效,且二氧化碳排放配额比重较大省区的分配效率值较小;2经过零和收益DEA模型的优化,省区分解方案的整体效率最终提升至有效边界,二氧化碳排放配额由效率较低的欠发达地区向效率较高的较发达地区转移,较发达和不发达的两类地区均分配到了较少的二氧化碳排放配额,最终二氧化碳排放权占比较多的地区主要为二氧化碳排放严重但减排潜力较大的省区.文章最后根据本文研究结论提出了具体的碳排放省区分解政策建议.     

Linking the EU emissions trading scheme: economic implications of allowance allocation and global carbon constraints

We investigate the role of domestic allowance allocation and global emissions constraints for the carbon-market impacts of linking the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) internationally. Employing a quantitative simulation model of the global carbon market, we find that the economic benefits from connecting the European ETS to emerging non-EU schemes strongly depend on the regional allowance allocation of the linking participants: In a world of moderate carbon constraints, an economically efficient regional allowance allocation induces a much stronger fall in total compliance costs than a sub-optimal (i.e. too high) domestic allocation of emissions permits. However, a more efficient (i.e. stricter) allocation shifts abatement efforts and compliance costs to energy-intensive industries which are covered by the domestic ETS. We further find that committing to ambitious global emissions reduction targets (compatible with stabilizing CO₂ concentrations at 450 ppm) induces much stronger regional abatement efforts and substantially higher compliance costs for the abating regions. In such an ambitious climate policy regime, an efficient domestic allocation of allowances is even more important from an economic perspective: Here, linking emissions trading schemes diminishes the associated compliance costs on the largest scale.

Linking the emissions trading schemes of Europe and China - Combining climate and energy policy instruments

Both Europe and China have announced targets for greenhouse gas emissions reduction and renewable energy development. To achieve their emissions targets, Europe has introduced emissions trading scheme (ETS) since 2005 and China has planned to establish a national ETS in 2015. We assess the impact of a joint Europe-China ETS when both climate and energy policy instruments are simulated in a multiregional general equilibrium model. Our results show that a joint ETS markedly increases total carbon emissions from fossil fuels even though global mitigation costs are reduced. Moreover, a joint ETS helps China achieve its renewable energy target, but for Europe, it works opposite. While the renewable energy target does not help Europe achieve additional abatement, the renewable energy target in China reduces mitigation costs and emissions, and increases renewable energy consumption and sales of carbon allowances. Financial transfer through a joint ETS remains marginal compared to China’s demand for renewable energy subsidies. We conclude that as long as an absolute emissions cap is missing in China, a joint ETS is not attractive for mitigation and China’s renewable energy target can reduce emissions.     

流域容量总量分配及排污交易潜力分析

流域容量总量的公平分配方法和排污交易潜力分析是目前流域管理研究的热点.采用层次分析法(AHP)和基尼系数交互反馈的方法研究了基于人口和经济公平的流域容量总量分配方案,并在此基础上建立了不考虑交易成本时的流域排污交易优化模型.将该模型用于分析邛海流域TP交易,得到污染控制总成本最小时的TP削减工程方案和排污交易方案.通过对比交易和未交易时的污染治理最小总成本发现,在不考虑交易成本时,排污交易有节约22.35%总成本的潜力.由于未考虑交易成本,这并不能说明邛海流域排污交易是可行的.但通过这种方法可以确定邛海流域排污交易可行的最大交易成本为1.56×109元·a-1.为了增大排污交易的可行性,应减少信息收集、谈判、管理、监测等方面的交易成本使其低于这一阈值.提出的排污交易优化模型能够提供交易信息,具有降低交易成本的潜力.     

Implications of uncertainty and scale in carbon emission estimates on locally appropriate designs to reduce emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+)

This study combined uncertainty analysis of carbon emissions with local stakeholders' perspectives to develop an effective Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) scheme at the district level. Uncertainty of carbon emission estimates depends on scale while local stakeholders' views on plausible REDD+ schemes influence and limit transaction costs. The uncertainty analysis formed the basis for determining an appropriate scale for monitoring carbon emission estimates as performance measures for REDD+ incentives. Our analysis of stakeholder’ perspectives explored (i) potential location and activities for lower emission development pathways, and (ii) perceived fair allocation of REDD+incentives. Our case study focused on frontier forest in Tanjung Jabung Barat District, Jambi, Indonesia. The uncertainty analysis used Monte Carlo simulation techniques using known inaccuracy of land cover classification and variation in carbon stocks assessment per land cover type. With decreasing spatial resolution of carbon emission maps, uncertainty in carbon estimates decreased. At 1 km² resolution uncertainty dropped below 5 %, retaining most of the coarser spatial variation in the district. Fairness, efficiency and transaction cost issues in the design of REDD+ mechanisms were readily recognized by local stakeholders, who converged on an equal allocation to short-term efficiency (emission reduction activities) and long-term fairness (alternative livelihood development). A striking difference occurred in desirable transaction costs (which include monitoring, reporting and verification), with Non-Governmental Organizations (NGOs) aiming for 8 %, while government and researchers accepted transaction costs of 40 %. Feasible measures for emission reduction in the district, derived from a participatory planning process, are compatible with the 1 km² spatial resolution of performance measures.     

CO2 emission reduction costs for iron ore-based steelmaking in Sweden

Possibilities to reduce CO₂ emissions and related costs at Swedish iron-ore based steelmaking in Sweden have been estimated. An evaluation of the direct impact on costs for emission-reducing measures due to the inclusion in the EU ETS is also made.Two different abatement options, based on previously implemented measures at SSAB Oxelösund as well as some future measures that could be implemented at the company by 2010, have been investigated. The first option corresponds to a CO₂ emission reduction of 6.5% and the second to a 13% reduction. The abatement measure with the largest reduction potential is dependent on natural gas being available at SSAB Oxelösund by 2010, which is not certain.Several of the estimated abatement costs are negative, meaning cost savings for the company if implemented. The cost estimates are strongly linked to the fuel prices. The inclusion of industries in the EU ETS increases the incentives for companies to implement CO₂ abatement measures.