Modelling and Simulation of COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction Using Supervised Machine Learning

Novel Coronavirus-19 (COVID-19) is a newer type of coronavirus that has not been formally detected in humans. It is established that this disease often affects people of different age groups, particularly those with body disorders, blood pressure, diabetes, heart problems, or weakened immune systems. The epidemic of this infection has recently had a huge impact on people around the globe with rising mortality rates. Rising levels of mortality are attributed to their transmitting behavior through physical contact between humans. It is extremely necessary to monitor the transmission of the infection and also to anticipate the early stages of the disease in such a way that the appropriate timing of effective precautionary measures can be taken. The latest global coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19) has brought new challenges to the scientific community. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-motivated methodologies may be useful in predicting the conditions, consequences, and implications of such an outbreak. These forecasts may help to monitor and prevent the spread of these outbreaks. This article proposes a predictive framework incorporating Support Vector Machines (SVM) in the forecasting of a potential outbreak of COVID-19. The findings indicate that the suggested system outperforms cutting-edge approaches. The method could be used to predict the long-term spread of such an outbreak so that we can implement proactive measures in advance. The findings of the analyses indicate that the SVM forecasting framework outperformed the Neural Network methods in terms of accuracy and computational complexity. The proposed SVM system model exhibits 98.88% and 96.79% result in terms of accuracy during training and validation respectively.     

Prediction of COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Using Gradient Boosting Regression Method

The fast spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by SARSCoV-2 has become a pandemic and a serious threat to the world. As of May 30, 2020, this disease had infected more than 6 million people globally, with hundreds of thousands of deaths. Therefore, there is an urgent need to predict confirmed cases so as to analyze the impact of COVID-19 and practice readiness in healthcare systems. This study uses gradient boosting regression (GBR) to build a trained model to predict the daily total confirmed cases of COVID-19. The GBR method can minimize the loss function of the training process and create a single strong learner from weak learners. Experiments are conducted on a dataset of daily confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 22, 2020, to May 30, 2020. The results are evaluated on a set of evaluation performance measures using 10-fold cross-validation to demonstrate the effectiveness of the GBR method. The results reveal that the GBR model achieves 0.00686 root mean square error, the lowest among several comparative models.     

Artificial Neural Networks for Prediction of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

In this study, we have proposed an artificial neural network (ANN) model to estimate and forecast the number of confirmed and recovered cases of COVID-19 in the upcoming days until September 17, 2020. The proposed model is based on the existing data (training data) published in the Saudi Arabia Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation—Demographics. The Prey-Predator algorithm is employed for the training. Multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) is used in this study. To improve the performance of MLPNN, we determined the parameters of MLPNN using the prey-predator algorithm (PPA). The proposed model is called the MLPNN–PPA. The performance of the proposed model has been analyzed by the root mean squared error (RMSE) function, and correlation coefficient (R). Furthermore, we tested the proposed model using other existing data recorded in Saudi Arabia (testing data). It is demonstrated that the MLPNN-PPA model has the highest performance in predicting the number of infected and recovering in Saudi Arabia. The results reveal that the number of infected persons will increase in the coming days and become a minimum of 9789. The number of recoveries will be 2000 to 4000 per day.     

Modelling the Psychological Impact of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia Using Machine Learning

This article aims to assess health habits, safety behaviors, and anxiety factors in the community during the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in Saudi Arabia based on primary data collected through a questionnaire with 320 respondents. In other words, this paper aims to provide empirical insights into the correlation and the correspondence between socio-demographic factors (gender, nationality, age, citizenship factors, income, and education), and psycho-behavioral effects on individuals in response to the emergence of this new pandemic. To focus on the interaction between these variables and their effects, we suggest different methods of analysis, comprising regression trees and support vector machine regression (SVMR) algorithms. According to the regression tree results, the age variable plays a predominant role in health habits, safety behaviors, and anxiety. The health habit index, which focuses on the extent of behavioral change toward the commitment to use the health and protection methods, is highly affected by gender and age factors. The average monthly income is also a relevant factor but has contrasting effects during the COVID-19 pandemic period. The results of the SVMR model reveal a strong positive effect of income, with R² values of 99.59%, 99.93% and 99.88% corresponding to health habits, safety behaviors, and anxiety.     

On the Detection of COVID-19 from Chest X-Ray Images Using CNN-Based Transfer Learning

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an extremely infectious disease and possibly causes acute respiratory distress or in severe cases may lead to death. There has already been some research in dealing with coronavirus using machine learning algorithms, but few have presented a truly comprehensive view. In this research, we show how convolutional neural network (CNN) can be useful to detect COVID-19 using chest X-ray images. We leverage the CNN-based pre-trained models as feature extractors to substantiate transfer learning and add our own classifier in detecting COVID-19. In this regard, we evaluate performance of five different pre-trained models with fine-tuning the weights from some of the top layers. We also develop an ensemble model where the predictions from all chosen pre-trained models are combined to generate a single output. The models are evaluated through 5-fold cross validation using two publicly available data repositories containing healthy and infected (both COVID-19 and other pneumonia) chest X-ray images. We also leverage two different visualization techniques to observe how efficiently the models extract important features related to the detection of COVID- 19 patients. The models show high degree of accuracy, precision, and sensitivity. We believe that the models will aid medical professionals with improved and faster patient screening and pave a way to further COVID-19 research.     

Automatic Detection of COVID-19 Using Chest X-Ray Images and Modified ResNet18-Based Convolution Neural Networks

The latest studies with radiological imaging techniques indicate that X-ray images provide valuable details on the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The usage of sophisticated artificial intelligence technology (AI) and the radiological images can help in diagnosing the disease reliably and addressing the problem of the shortage of trained doctors in remote villages. In this research, the automated diagnosis of Coronavirus disease was performed using a dataset of X-ray images of patients with severe bacterial pneumonia, reported COVID-19 disease, and normal cases. The goal of the study is to analyze the achievements for medical image recognition of state-of-the-art neural networking architectures. Transfer Learning technique has been implemented in this work. Transfer learning is an ambitious task, but it results in impressive outcomes for identifying distinct patterns in tiny datasets of medical images. The findings indicate that deep learning with X-ray imagery could retrieve important biomarkers relevant for COVID-19 disease detection. Since all diagnostic measures show failure levels that pose questions, the scientific profession should determine the probability of integration of X-rays with the clinical treatment, utilizing the results. The proposed model achieved 96.73% accuracy outperforming the ResNet50 and traditional Resnet18 models. Based on our findings, the proposed system can help the specialist doctors in making verdicts for COVID-19 detection.     

Early Detection of Diabetic Retinopathy Using Machine Intelligence through Deep Transfer and Representational Learning

Diabetic retinopathy (DR) is a retinal disease that causes irreversible blindness. DR occurs due to the high blood sugar level of the patient, and it is clumsy to be detected at an early stage as no early symptoms appear at the initial level. To prevent blindness, early detection and regular treatment are needed. Automated detection based on machine intelligence may assist the ophthalmologist in examining the patients’ condition more accurately and efficiently. The purpose of this study is to produce an automated screening system for recognition and grading of diabetic retinopathy using machine learning through deep transfer and representational learning. The artificial intelligence technique used is transfer learning on the deep neural network, Inception-v4. Two configuration variants of transfer learning are applied on Inception-v4: Fine-tune mode and fixed feature extractor mode. Both configuration modes have achieved decent accuracy values, but the fine-tuning method outperforms the fixed feature extractor configuration mode. Fine-tune configuration mode has gained 96.6% accuracy in early detection of DR and 97.7% accuracy in grading the disease and has outperformed the state of the art methods in the relevant literature.