Hydrological modeling of storm runoff and snowmelt in Taunton River Basin by applications of HEC-HMS and PRMS models

Reliable predictions of storm runoff from rainfall and snowmelt are important for flood hazard mitigation and resilience. In this study, the HEC-HMS and PRMS hydrological models have been applied to simulate storm runoff in Taunton River Basin for the storm event in 2010 when maximum rainfall intensity reached approximate 5 in/day in March, and the snowfall reached about 11 inches in December. Model parameters were calibrated, and model performance was evaluated by comparing model-simulated daily stream flow with observations. For the rainstorm period during March–April, results indicate that both HEC-HMS and PRMS provide very good predictions of rainfall runoff with the correlation values above 0.95, and PRMS produces lower root-mean-square errors than those from HEC-HMS. Over the 12-month period including the snowfall in December, the time series of flow by PRMS match better with observations than those from the HEC-HMS. The 12-month overall correlation values for HEC-HMS and PRMS are 0.91 and 0.97 at Bridgewater Station, and 0.89 and 0.97 at Threemile Station, respectively. For an extreme storm scenario of the maximum historical 36.7-inch snowfall in early February in combination with the rainstorm in March–April of 2010, model simulations indicate that the flow would substantially increase by about 50% or more. Comparisons between HEC-HMS and RPMS models have been analyzed to provide references for storm runoff modeling.     

干旱区融雪径流模拟的研究进展与展望

融雪径流模拟是干旱区水文水资源研究的热点问题,对干旱区春季融雪洪水风险评估和流域水资源管理至关重要。结合文献查询及资料分析,重点讨论了不同类型融雪径流模型的特征和发展情况,比较了不同融雪径流模型在干旱区一些典型河流的应用情况,并对其功能及优缺点进行了评估。结合对目前流域融雪径流模拟研究中存在的问题的分析,提出未来融雪径流模拟要注重提高数据分辨率的观点。借助多源遥感数据驱动获取更为精确的输入数据,在数据获取难度减小、精度提高的基础上山区融雪径流模拟将更多地以基于能量平衡的物理性模拟为主。模型的构建要充分考虑由气候变暖所带来的其它参数的变化,精确描述山区融雪过程,以提高对融雪径流的模拟精度。     

塔里木河源区托什干河流域积雪动态及融雪径流模拟与预估

利用已被广泛使用的MODIS积雪数据, 获得了塔里木河源区之一的托什干河流域积雪变化信息. 结果表明: 流域积雪覆盖率时空差异显著, 在积雪丰富的年份, 1月积雪覆盖率可达90%以上, 但在积雪少的年份, 则只有50%; 2000年以来流域积雪呈现微弱增加的趋势, 积雪变化趋势呈现明显的时空差异. 相对于其他季节, 流域冬季积雪增加更为明显; 与其他高度带相比, 作为主要积雪覆盖区的海拔3 000~4 000 m高度带积雪的增加趋势也更为明显. 以流域所在的气象格网数据和积雪覆盖率变化曲线作为输入数据, 应用融雪径流模型(SRM)模拟了流域春季融雪径流过程, 率定了模型主要参数, 获得了较好的结果. 以CMIP5的3种RCP情景为驱动数据, 应用模型预估了流域2021-2050年的融雪径流状况, 结果显示 4月之前径流变化不明显, 之后径流峰值增大显著, 不同气候情景对径流的影响不明显.     

Response of runoff to climate change in the area of runoff yield in upstream Shiyang River Basin,Northwest China: A case study of the Xiying River

The objective of this study was to analyze the response of runoff in the area of runoff yield of the upstream Shiyang River basin to climate change and to promote sustainable development of regional water resources and ecological environment. As the biggest tributary of the Shiyang River, Xiying River is the only hydrological station (Jiutiaoling) that has provincial natural river and can achieve long time series monitoring data in the basin. The data obtained from this station is representative of natural conditions because it has little human activites. This study built a regression model through identifying the characteristics of runoff and climate change by using Mann-Kendall nonparametric statistical test, cumulative anomaly, and correlation analysis. The results show that the average annual runoff is 320.6 million m³/a with the coefficient of variation of 0.18 and shows slightly decrease during 1956–2020. It has a significant positive correlation the average annual precipitation (P<0.01). Runoff is sensitive to climate change, and the climate has becoming warm and wet and annual runoff has entering wet period from 2003. Compared to the earlier period (1955–2000), the increases of average annual temperature, precipitation and runoff in recent two decades were 15%, 9.3%, and 7.8%, respectively. Runoff in the Shiyang River is affected by temperature and precipitation among climate factors, and the simulation results of the runoff-climate response model (R = 0.0052P ? 0.1589T + 2.373) indicate that higher temperature leads to a weakening of the ecological regulation of surface runoff in the flow-producing area.     

新疆焉耆盆地开都河不同河型段砂砾质沉积特征与差异分析*

新疆焉耆盆地开都河自察汗乌苏水电站流入博斯腾湖的河口之间,发育单一物源供给下的山间河段、辫状河段、曲流河段、顺直河段以及三角洲平原顺直型分流河道段等多种类型河道沉积。通过探坑挖掘与观察、砂砾质沉积物结构的测量、碎屑组分与重矿物分析以及数据统计分析等方法,分析开都河不同类型河段的砾石质沉积特征与搬运距离关系、砾质与砂质组合特征、砂质碎屑组分与沉积构造特征及变化等,认为沉积地形与坡度、沉积物组成以及气候条件等因素控制了不同河段类型的变化与沉积特征的差异。同时,建立了不同河型段砾石径变化与沉积搬运距离的定量关系。在此基础上,统计了在干旱气候与充沛物源供给条件下,开都河不同河型沉积中的有利储集体分布范围及其比例关系数据,可为陆相湖盆河流沉积相图的编制提供重要的参考依据。     

使用积雪遥感面积数据改善山区春季融雪径流模拟精度

随着寒区水文模拟研究的深入,春季融雪径流模拟误差大这一问题越来越明显.针对此问题,以八宝河流域为研究区,利用积雪衰减曲线将MODIS积雪面积比例产品转化为雪水当量,并用其更新分布式水文模型GBHM(Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model)中模拟的雪水当量,达到提高春季融雪径流模拟精度的目的.利用GBHM模型对八宝河流域2005-2007年进行了模型预热,参数率定,同时选择2008年进行模型检验.结果表明:GBHM模型在八宝河流域有较好的径流模拟精度,年均纳什效率系数(NSE)达到0.64.但模型对春季融雪过程的模拟效果较差,通过引入积雪遥感数据,这一问题得到很大改善.加入积雪遥感数据后,2008年3-6月径流模拟精度NSE和相对偏差Bias分别由-1.0、-0.45改进为0.58、0.06,单点雪水当量模拟精度获得提高,流域水量平衡也更加合理.     

祁连山古浪河流域径流组分特征

为了探究气候变暖、冰冻圈急剧萎缩背景下祁连山内陆河的水文状况,依据古浪河流域所采集的各类水体样品和相关观测数据,分析了各水体稳定同位素特征及其所指示的环境意义,并进行了径流分割。结果表明：（1）与降水相比,河水稳定同位素年际变化较小,从季节变化角度来看,河水δ¹⁸O值夏季 > 秋季 > 春季 > 冬季,反映了不同季节蒸发强度的差异。（2）泉水稳定同位素特征与河水相似,年际变化较为稳定,表明山区河水与泉水之间可能存在转换过程。（3）由于土壤水分交换、地表土壤蒸发、植被蒸腾以及土壤水和地下水之间的同位素差异,引起土壤水同位素组成的梯度差异比较明显,土壤水δ¹⁸O由地表向下经历了富集―贫化―富集的过程,d-excess变化则与之相反。（4）径流分割结果显示大气降水对古浪河流域出山径流的补给率高达76%±2.4%,冻土层上水补给为24%±2.4%。     

新疆开都河流域季节性冻土特征的控制和影响因子分析

全球变暖使季节性冻土范围逐渐缩小,而季节性冻土对春季径流,尤其是春季洪峰的影响使得该方面的研究更为重要。为了分析季节性冻土广泛分布的山区不同海拔高度条件下季节性冻土发育和融化期影响因子的差异,采用通径分析方法对开都河流域不同海拔高度季节性冻土最大冻结深度和解冻日数的影响因子进行了分析。结果表明,不同海拔高度这两者的影响因子差异不大,但其控制因子存在差异。季节性冻土最大冻结深度的控制因子由低海拔处的负积温和最大积雪深度转为中高海拔处的平均相对湿度;解冻日数的控制因子由低海拔处的平均风速和最大冻结深度转变为高海拔处的平均相对湿度。该差异主要由不同海拔高度的地理位置和局地气候条件等决定。     

祁连山摆浪河谷地的冰川地貌与冰期

祁连山摆浪河上游是一个以前研究者未曾涉足的地方，我们在这里发现6套保存完好的古冰川沉积和与之对应的冰水阶地以及上覆较厚的黄土 堆积，根据地貌地层学研究和^14C、TL、ESR测年，确认它们分别代表了小冰期、新冰期、同位素2阶段、4阶段、6阶段和12阶段6次冰川作用，是迄今在祁连山地区发现的相对比较确定的清晰齐全的第四纪冰川序列，发生于氧同位素12阶段的中梁赣冰期，表明抬升中的祁连山至少于460kaBP前与冰期气候耦合，进入了当时的冰冻圈。     

Mean runoff coefficient estimation for ungauged streams in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Runoff coefficient estimation in ungauged watersheds has a priority for rain water harvesting and management of runoff water, for domestic and agriculture activities, in semi-arid and arid regions. To estimate mean runoff coefficient (C _Re) for ungauged streams, Pearson's coefficient of linear correlation (r) was measured. The method of linear regression (y?=?mx?+?c) was applied for 16 gauged catchments representing several regions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, such as Al Qassim, Al Madinah, Riyadh, Asir, Makkah, and Jazan. The studied catchments were equally divided into two groups based on their main streams slopes; group A includes eight gauged streams having main stream slope less than 0.01, where group B includes eight gauged streams having main stream slope equal to or greater than 0.01. The result yields the constant of the linear regression for each group and the mean runoff coefficient of basin by an independent value (basin slope) for group A and an independent value (stream slope) for group B. The results indicate that the measured runoff coefficient (C _Rm) and the estimated runoff coefficient (C _Re) are almost equal to each other.     

Glacier changes and its effect on water resources in Urumqi River Basin,Tianshan Mountains,China, from 1964 to 2014

This work investigated changes in glaciers over the Urumqi River Basin from 1964 to 2014, and its role in the local water resource. Based on the glacier outlines on 1964, 2005 and 2014 derived from topographical maps and satellite images, the glaciers shrank 32.51% of the surface area between 1964 and 2005, and 12.12% between 2005 and 2014, respectively. The corresponding area reduction rate increased from 0.77%/a in 1964–2005 to 1.21%/a in 2005–2014, suggesting accelerated glacier retreat in recent decades. Our results showed that hydrological regime variability in both glacierized and non-glacierized catchments of the Urumqi River Basin was dependent on the current glacier conditions. Furthermore, glaciers with the area of 1–2 km² contributed most to the water resources in this region, but their regulation effects to river runoff were weakening. Accordingly, the accelerated glacier retreat was a dangerous signal for local water resource, and the continuous future glacier monitoring under the global warming were desperately needed.     

新疆阿尔泰山区克兰河上游水文过程对气候变暖的响应

额尔齐斯河支流克兰河上游发源于西风带水汽影响的阿尔泰山南坡,主要由融雪径流补给,年内积雪融水可占年径流量的45%.年最大月径流一般出现在6月份,融雪季节4~6月径流量占65%.流域自20世纪60年代开始明显升温,年平均温度从50年代的1.4℃上升到90年代的5.2℃;年降水总量也呈增加趋势,尤其是冬季和初春增加最多.随着气候变暖,河流年内水文过程发生了很大的变化,主要表现在最大月径流由6月提前到5月,月径流总量增加约15%,4~6月融雪径流量也由占年流量的60%增加到近70%.在多年变化趋势上,气温上升主要发生在冬季,降水也以冬季增加明显,而夏季降水呈下降趋势;水文过程主要表现在5月径流呈增加趋势,而6月径流为下降趋势;夏季径流减少而春季径流增加明显.冬春季积雪增加和气温上升,导致融雪洪水增多且洪峰流量增大,使洪水灾害破坏性加大.近些年来气候变暖引起的年内水文过程变化,已经对河流下游的城市供水和农牧业生产产生了影响.     

Salt-Lake Basin Bedrock Weathered Crust Gas Reservoir in the Altun Mountains Front of the Qaidam Basin,Western China

The bedrock weathered crust in front of the Altun Mountains in the Qaidam Basin, western China, is different from others because this is a salt-lake basin, where saline water fluid infiltrates and is deposited in the overlying strata. A large amount of gypsum infills the bedrock weathered crust, and this has changed the pore structure. Using core observation, polarized light microscopy, electron probe, physical property analysis and field emission scanning electron microscopy experiments, the ch...     

Fuzzy risk analysis of dam overtopping from snowmelt floods in the nonstationarity case of the Manas River catchment,China

Natural Hazards - With the significant climate change that has occurred in the Manas River catchment, the temporal and spatial patterns of the natural changes in the regional water cycle have...     

冰川物质平衡模式及其对比研究——以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川研究为例

冰川物质平衡是冰川连结气候和水资源的纽带, 对其的观测和模拟始终是冰川与气候变化研究领域的重点和前缘之一. 以祁连山黑河流域十一冰川为参照冰川, 结合实测物质平衡验证资料, 建立了基于冰川表面能量平衡的冰川物质平衡模型(物理模型)和基于温度参数、温度-辐射参数和温度-辐射-水汽压参数的三种度日因子模型(统计模型), 并对模拟结果进行了分析及评估. 结果表明: 净辐射是冰川表面最主要的能量来源, 占能量收入的82.3%; 其次为感热供热, 占收入的17.7%. 净长波辐射基本为负, 吸收的热量主要通过融化和蒸发/升华方式消耗, 分别占能量支出的84.7%和15.3%. 加入净短波辐射和水汽压参数的度日因子-物质平衡模型的模拟效果提高显著, 相对误差为7%, 与能量平衡模型的模拟误差6.7%, 相差不大. 研究表明, 能量-物质平衡模型的物理意义明确, 模拟能力强大, 尤其在日尺度上有绝对的优势; 统计物质平衡模型在特定的地理条件和气候条件下表现出不佳, 对于一些极端值的模拟能力欠缺, 但是具有输入变量少, 计算简单的优点. 研究结果对黑河流域乃至整个祁连山地区的冰川物质平衡模拟方法的建立具有参考意义.     

Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Tuotuo River basin,the source region of Yangtze River in western China

Glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin, western China, have been monitored in recent decades by applying topographical maps and high-resolution satellite images. Results indicate that most of glaciers in the Tuotuo River basin have retreated in the period from 1968/1971 to 2001/2002, and their shrinkage area is 3.2% of the total area in the late 1960s. To assess the influence of glacier runoff on river runoff, a modified degree–day model including potential clear-sky direct solar radiation has been applied to the glaciated regions of the river basin over the period 1961–2004. It was found that glacier runoff has increased in the last 44 years, especially in the 1990s when a two-thirds increase in river runoff was derived from the increase in glacier runoff caused by loss of ice mass in the entire Tuotuo River basin.     

Regional climate change and its effects on the runoff of Manas River,Xinjiang, China

The effects of climate change on annual runoff were analyzed on the basis of hydrologic and meteorological data for the past 50 years recorded by six meteorological stations and the Kenswatt Hydrological Station in the headstream of the Manas River watershed. The long-term trends of climate change and hydrological variations were determined in a nonparametric test, and the periodicities were determined employing the extrapolation method of periodic variance analysis. Subsequently, a periodicity-trend superposition model was used to predict future change. The results show that both the climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and runoff have increased considerably and have significant relations; the relation between temperature and runoff is the more significant. There is periodicity of 18 years in the change in annual runoff, and the primary periodicity of changes in temperature and precipitation is, respectively, 3 and 15 years. The runoff variations are affected by climate change in the headstream, but do not shift simultaneously with abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation in the headstream. There is a significant positive relationship in winter between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and runoff, while there are negative correlations annually and in summer for the runoff lagging the NAO by 1 year. The NAO has certain effects on climate change that are mainly due to atmospheric circulation in the Manas River Basin, and thus, the NAO affects the runoff.