A Regional, Multi-sectoral And Integrated Assessment Of The Impacts Of Climate And Socio-economic Change In The Uk

Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder-led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The ‘Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’ (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5 × 5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10 × 10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.     

二维全球气候模式的发展——由对流层向平流层的扩展

采用Arakawa的σ-p混合坐标,将李维亮等人发展的一个二维全球原始方程模式由对流层扩展到平流层中层(10 hPa)。垂直分层采用等lnp方案。发展后的模式不仅在计算上具有很好的稳定性,而且能较好地模拟平均温度场、平均纬向风场和平均经向风场及其季节性变化。同时,在模式对流层之上加上平流层后改善了对流层上层环流的模拟。     

关于南昌上空对流层顶资料的统计和分析

对南昌上空对流层顶资料进行了统计和分析,发现极地对流层顶高度各月出现的次数、年度出现次数、持续时间及温度变化大;热带对流层顶出现的频率高,月平均高度变化范围非常小,月平均温度变化幅度小;复合对流层顶分别具有极地对流层顶和热带对流层顶的特征,其厚度与冷气团势力的强弱有关,尤其与寒潮天气系统的关系密切。     

江西盛夏高温干旱的气候分析及预测研究

采用逐日降水及最高气温资料,计算了盛夏高温干旱指数;应用500hPa月平均高度及西太平洋副高(简称副高)特征量、海温资料,分析了盛夏高温干旱与副高、海温的关系。结果表明:副高偏强偏西是盛夏高温干旱的典型特征;冬季厄尔尼诺偏强、上年秋冬季赣中降水量异常偏多及4月赣南气温明显偏高是有利于全省盛夏高温干旱发生的强信号。     

江西省农业气候可行性论证工作进展与建议

对江西省气象部门1996年以来组织开展的农业气候可行性论证工作进行了全面总结,归纳出7个方面的成绩和5个方面的不足,并对今后各级政府、农业工作者、气象工作者和农业生产者进一步加强联系和协作,共同搞好农业气候可行性论证工作提出了若干建议。     

河西玻璃温室辣椒生产的气候适应性及指标分析

用灰色系统关联度及统计方法对玻璃温室内辣椒生长状况、生物量与室内１０种气象要素进行定量分析,得出影响辣椒生产各气象要素的指标。     

Fine-Scale Measurements Of Turbulence In The Lower Troposphere: An Intercomparison Between A Kite- And Balloon-Borne, And A Helicopter-Borne Measurement System

Two state-of-the-art, high-resolution, in situ turbulence measurement systems, which can be deployed at altitudes well above the atmospheric surface layer, are compared: the Tethered Lifting System (TLS) of the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)at the University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, and the helicopter-borneturbulence measurement system HELIPOD of the Technical UniversityBraunschweig, Germany, and the University of Hanover, Germany. Whilethe CIRES TLS is a fixed-point platform, HELIPOD is a moving platform.On the basis of data taken with the two systems in separate field campaigns,the system capabilities are quantified and discussed. Criteria for instrumentalrequirements are presented. It is shown that both the CIRES TLS and HELIPODare well suited for measuring fine-scale turbulence that is characterized by very small temperature structure parameters 10⁶ K² m^–2/3 and smaller) and very small energy dissipation rates (10^-7 m² s^-3 and smaller). The authors are not aware of any other turbulence measurement systems that have similar capabilities and can be deployed at altitudes of up to several kilometres. The HELIPOD is ideal for high-resolution horizontal measurements while the TLS is ideal for high-resolution vertical measurements using multiple sensors attached to a suspended line.     

新余市香椿大棚种植气候条件分析及技术要点

对大棚栽培和露天生产香椿的质量及产量进行了比较,认为在大棚栽培中,应合理进行棚内温度、湿度及光照的调节,并采取打顶促分枝、套隔光薄膜袋等技术,以提高产量和质量,使大棚栽培香椿一年四季可采,全年均衡供应。     

Regional Energy Demand Responses To Climate Change: Methodology And Application To The Commonwealth Of Massachusetts

Climate is a major determinant of energy demand. Changes in climate may alter energy demand as well as energy demand patterns. This study investigates the implications of climate change for energy demand under the hypothesis that impacts are scale dependent due to region-specific climatic variables, infrastructure, socioeconomic, and energy use profiles. In this analysis we explore regional energy demand responses to climate change by assessing temperature-sensitive energy demand in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. The study employs a two-step estimation and modeling procedure. The first step evaluates the historic temperature sensitivity of residential and commercial demand for electricity and heating fuels, using a degree-day methodology. We find that when controlling for socioeconomic factors, degree-day variables have significant explanatory power in describing historic changes in residential and commercial energy demands. In the second step, we assess potential future energy demand responses to scenarios of climate change. Model results are based on alternative climate scenarios that were specifically derived for the region on the basis of local climatological data, coupled with regional information from available global climate models. We find notable changes with respect to overall energy consumption by, and energy mix of the residential and commercial sectors in the region. On the basis of our findings, we identify several methodological issues relevant to the development of climate change impact assessments of energy demand.     

广西1999年12月严重霜冻与典型霜冻重年的环流对比分析

通过对1999年12月广西严重霜冻天气同期500hPa高度场和海平面气压场特征及前期500 hPa高度的相关场分析,得到北半球中高纬度槽脊的位置与强度,地面大陆冷高压强弱,是影响广西12月霜冻的主要环流形势;当年1月、9月极涡强度、位置,北美高压脊强度,及黑海附近低槽强弱,是影响广西12月霜冻天气重、轻的重要因子。     

气候论证的内容和技术方法探讨

气候论证是《中华人民共和国气象法》赋予气象部门的职责。现根据实际工作经验,介绍了气候论证的主要内容和技术方法,为加快广西气候论证的步伐,提高气候论证质量提供参考。     

Oxygen Isotope Composition Of Human Teeth And The Record Of Climate Changes In France (Lorraine) During The Last 1700 Years

In order to study climate variations during the last 1700 years in eastern France, fifty-eight oxygen isotope compositions of phosphate were measured in human tooth enamel. The individuals, who lived in Lorraine, are assumed to have drunk local water derived directly from rainfall. According to previous work, drinking water is the main source of oxygen that sets the isotopic composition of phosphatic tissues in humans. The empirical fractionation equation determined from our data combined with those of Longinelli’s one [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 48 (1984) 385] was used to calculate the oxygen isotope composition of meteoric waters. The mean air temperature was inferred from these isotope ratios and the Von Grafenstein et al.’s [Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 60 (1996) 4025] relationship between δ¹⁸O and air temperature. Oxygen isotope composition of present-day individuals yields a mean air temperature of 9.9± 1.7 ^∘C which is consistent with meteorological data. Application of this method to historical individuals results in mean air temperatures estimates 0 to 3 ^∘C higher than present-day air temperature. These warm air temperatures are not realistic during the so-called Little Ice Age for which an air-cooling of about 0.5 to 2 ^∘C has been documented. We propose that these relatively high δ¹⁸O values of human tooth enamel reflect higher mean δ¹⁸O values of meteoric water which can be attributed to an increased proportion of summer rainfall during the “Little Ice Age” time frame in Lorraine.     

充分发挥各级减灾委员会的作用为建设和谐平安江西保驾护航--在全省领导干部减灾管理研讨班上的讲话(摘录)

介绍了“全省领导干部减灾管理研讨班”的基本概况,并就今后一段时期的综合减灾工作提出了具体建议。讲话认为,要认真贯彻、落实省政府吴新雄常务副省长、省政协倪国熙副主席在减灾管理研讨班上的讲话精神,编制好减灾综合规划,组织开展自然灾害总结、预测会商与科研工作,加强防灾减灾知识的普及宣传教育工作,加强灾害信息收集、汇总工作,逐步实现资源信息共享;各级减灾委要不断加强自身能力建设,积极组织开展省外、境外、国外减灾考察活动,不断拓宽减灾领导、专家的视野。使江西综合成灾工作逐步与国际接轨,从而为建设和谐平安江西做出积极的贡献。     

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Climate Forecasting: The New Tool for Increasing Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change In Agricultural Planning And Operations

Climate variability and change affects individuals and societies. Within agricultural systems, seasonal climate forecasting can increase preparedness and lead to better social, economic and environmental outcomes. However, climate forecasting is not the panacea to all our problems in agriculture. Instead, it is one of many risk management tools that sometimes play an important role in decision-making. Understanding when, where and how to use this tool is a complex and multi-dimensional problem. To do this effectively, we suggest a participatory, cross-disciplinary research approach that brings together institutions (partnerships), disciplines (e.g., climate science, agricultural systems science, rural sociology and many other disciplines) and people (scientist, policy makers and direct beneficiaries) as equal partners to reap the benefits from climate knowledge. Climate science can provide insights into climatic processes, agricultural systems science can translate these insights into management options and rural sociology can help determine the options that are most feasible or desirable from a socio-economic perspective. Any scientific breakthroughs in climate forecasting capabilities are much more likely to have an immediate and positive impact if they are conducted and delivered within such a framework. While knowledge and understanding of the socio-economic circumstances is important and must be taken into account, the general approach of integrated systems science is generic and applicable in developed as well as in developing countries. Examples of decisions aided by simulation output ranges from tactical crop management options, commodity marketing to policy decisions about future land use. We also highlight the need to better understand temporal- and spatial-scale variability and argue that only a probabilistic approach to outcome dissemination should be considered. We demonstrated how knowledge of climatic variability (CV), can lead to better decisions in agriculture, regardless of geographical location and socio-economic conditions.     

气候变迁下的古雷电印象浅析

探讨和总结了古雷电研究的4种方法：①地质记录中的古气候标志方法；②氧同位索测量古温度方法；③冰川冰期与气候冷暖方法；④史料记载的研究方法。应用这4种方法分别对史前气候变迁下的古雷电进行描述，然后再从史料记载中，浓缩了古雷电的记录，分析了古雷电印象。     

气候变迁下的古雷电印象浅析

探讨和总结了古雷电研究的4种方法:①地质记录中的古气候标志方法;②氧同位素测量古温度方法;③冰川冰期与气候冷暖方法;④史料记载的研究方法。应用这4种方法分别对史前气候变迁下的古雷电进行描述,然后再从史料记载中,浓缩了古雷电的记录,分析了古雷电印象。     

鹰潭气候与芦荟种植

以鹰潭市1955~2000年的气候资料为依据,分析了鹰潭市气象条件对发展芦荟生产的利弊影响,并提出了合理利用气候资源发展芦荟生产的对策:一要选择良好的立地条件,二要适时定植,三要合理密植,四要搞好田间温湿调控,五要加强病虫防治。     

Sybase数据库技术在气候资料开发中的应用

在PowerBuilder开发环境下实现了对地面气象报表信息化处理后的资料建库和气象数据库的多功能操作,为基层台站开发应用气候资料提供了一个有效途径和工具。     

甘肃黄土高原春季第一场透雨的时空分布特征

文中利用甘肃黄土高原1971—2000年56个站的降水资料，分析了春季第一场透雨日期的变化特征，用EOF和REOF方法对其做了分解，进行了透雨日期的气候分区。结果表明，透雨早的年份，春季降水偏多，20世纪90年代以来，透雨日期以偏迟为主。