基于复合控制的电液负载模拟器多余力抑制研究

针对电液负载模拟系统存在多余力且该多余力严重影响系统加载精度与控制性能的问题,建立了系统各部分以及整个系统的数学模型.通过对数学模型的研究,分析了系统多余力的产生机理,并建立了系统多余力的传递函数.提出了前馈PID复合控制的方法,并对该方法进行了仿真分析和实验研究.在仿真分析中,通过对多余力消扰前、引入前馈控制消扰后及引入复合控制消扰后3种情况的比较,说明前馈PID复合控制能够有效抑制系统多余力.实验结果进一步验证了前馈PID复合控制的有效性,同时实验结果显示在运动换向时系统多余力将出现突变,为下一步的研究指明了方向.     

交易者异质性与期货市场动态关系的仿真研究

本文构建了一个基于异质性交易者的投机性期货市场仿真模型,从交易者微观行为的角度分析市场价格的动态特征。市场中有限理性的交易者具有异质性信念和不同的学习能力。个体预期不断调整,市场根据密封拍卖机制出清,期货价格随之变化。仿真结果表明,价格的波动与市场中大投机交易者的活动密切相关。仿真能够再现期货价格波动高峰厚尾。长记忆等特征。噪声交易者在市场中的生存,取决于外部信息流对市场的影响过程以及其他交易者的行为.本文是采用计算金融学仿真方法研究衍生产品市场的一种尝试,也为此领域的研究者在模型的实现上提供了另外一种容易实现的途径。     

蚂蚁算法和小生境遗传算法的融合

蚂蚁算法是一种新型的模拟进化算法,也是一种随机型智能搜索算法.较为系统的总结了算法的基本理论,分析了其基本算法解决TSP问题的模型,针对蚂蚁算法易出现停滞的缺点,把小生境遗传算法和蚂蚁算法融合,仿真比较实验结果表明优于基本蚂蚁算法.     

基于用户报价信息划分的可控负荷菜单定价模型

设计合理的需求侧电价是引导和促进用户实施需求响应的重要因素.基于可控负荷参与市场交易时的报价信息,借助机制设计中的激励相容理论,提出了一种可控负荷菜单定价模型,该模型以系统供电成本最小为目标,且用户类型是离散的.通过节点系统IEEE-30仿真实验,设计出适用于5种不同用户类型的菜单电价,并通过对比分析,表明所提出的菜单定价模型节约了系统供电成本,也为需求侧电价的设计提供了理论参考.     

基于均线交易系统的非特定时间动态VaR研究

为使交易产生稳定持续的收益, 使用基于一定交易规则的交易系统进行交易成为越来越多的投资者和投资机构使用的方法。如能把VaR引入交易系统,进行风险管理,将具有重要的意义。本文以5-60日均线交易系统为研究对象,建立了非特定时间动态VaR模型。经过检验,验证了模型的准确性。在基于模型进行交易策略优化后,得出了有意义的结果。本文使VaR在非特定时间度量方面实现了应用,研究结果对交易系统的风险控制,具有较大的应用价值。     

随机需求下三度价格歧视重复博弈的研究

基于随机需求函数,讨论了相互竞争的两厂商实施三度价格歧视无限次重复博弈和不定次重复博弈的均衡分析,在三度价格歧视无限次重复博弈分析中,得出了两厂商在贴现因子影响下的子博弈完美纳什均衡.在三度价格歧视不定次重复博弈分析中,设计了不同的方案并进行了Matlab仿真,比较了不同贴现因子下不同仿真方案的厂商得益,并对仿真结果进行了系统分析,得到了统计意义下的均衡分析.     

不确定需求量与回收量条件下无价格差异的闭环供应链模型

研究随机需求量与回收量条件下无价格差异的闭环供应链集中决策和分散决策问题.假设新产品与再造品价格相同,在不确定性需求量与回收量的前提下,建立了集中决策与分散决策的Stackelberg模型,探讨了闭环供应链成员如何确定最优产品价格,订货量,回收努力等问题.通过数值仿真,比较分析了集中决策与分散式Stackelberg决策模型的最优解,通过相关参数的变动,分析了对闭环供应链系统以及各成员的决策变量与期望利润的影响.最后,总结仿真得出的相关结论.     

随机环境下考虑回收定价和销售定价的逆向供应链优化与协调研究

由再制造商和分销商组成的逆向供应链中,再制造商回收的废旧产品数量是与回收价格相关的随机变量,分销商面临的再制造产品需求是与销售价格相关的随机变量.再制造商决策回收价格并向分销商提供合同,分销商基于合同作出反应来决策订购数量和销售价格,目标是在随机回收和随机需求下最大化各自的期望利润.利用博弈论和优化理论,分别得到了分散式和集中式供应链系统下的最优决策,证明了分散式系统中的回收价格和再制造数量偏低而销售价格偏高,并提出了综合三种基本合同的供应链协调机制.最后通过数值仿真得到了系统参数对供应链决策和利润的影响.     

基于Melnikov函数的系统混沌性证明

到目前为止,系统混沌性的证明大多数还局限在数据仿真实验上,理论证明还很少.应用Melnikov函数法讨论了一种非线性系统的同宿轨道和异宿轨道,并给出了系统产生混沌现象所满足的条件.     

一个带有增加量价格折扣的两货栈库存模型

已有的确定性两货栈(其中一个是自己货栈(OW);另一个是租用货栈(RW))库存模型通常不考虑增加量价格折扣,然而在实际生活中,增加量价格折扣却是促使库存管理者加大订货量的一个重要原因.本文通过考虑增加量价格折扣而将两货栈系统作了进一步扩展,在采用间隔式运输模式运送RW的物品到OW的情形下,建立了一个带有增加量价格折扣并允许短缺的两货栈库存模型,提供了一种寻求最优库存策略的简单方法.     

Bidding under price uncertainty in multi-unit pay-as-bid procurement auctions for power systems reserve

In this paper a methodology for profit maximized bidding under price uncertainty in a day-ahead, multi-unit and pay-as-bid procurement auction for power systems reserve is proposed. Within this novel methodology a bidder is considered to follow a Bayes-strategy. Thereby, one bidder is assumed to behave strategically and the behavior of the remaining is summarized in a probability distribution of the market price and a reaction function to price dumping by the strategic bidder. With this approach two problems arise: First, as a pay-as-bid auction is considered, no uniform price and therefore no single probability distribution of the market price is readily available. Second, if historic bidding data of all participants are used to estimate such a distribution and market power is a relevant factor, the bid of the strategically behaving bidder is likely to influence the distribution. Within this paper for both of the problems solutions are presented. It is shown that by estimating a probability of acceptance the optimal bidding price with respect to a given capacity can be calculated by maximizing a stochastic non-linear objective function of expected profit. Taking the characteristics of recently established markets in Germany into account, the methodology is applied using exemplary data. It is shown that the methodology helps to manage existing price uncertainties and hence supports the trading decisions of a bidder. It is inferred that the developed methodology may also be used for bidding on other auction markets with a similar market design.     

Dual mechanism for an online retailer

While posted price and auction have typically been seen as alternatives to each other, we observe Web stores selling a product at a posted price and simultaneously running auctions for the identical product, a phenomenon that has not been studied fully. In this article, we study a dual mechanism, where an online retailer combines the two conventional mechanisms (posted price and auction) for multiple units of a product. We demonstrate that the dual mechanism can be used to achieve market segmentation when customers discount the expected utility of auctions. We characterize the customer’s decision rule and formulate a retailer’s profit function under the dual mechanism. Finally, we compare the performance of three selling mechanisms (posted price, auction, and dual) through computational experiments.     

中国新三板市场阶段性集合竞价制度的价格发现研究

市场微观结构理论表明交易机制对资产价格的形成过程具有重要影响。本文以中国新三板交易机制改革为背景,从理论上分析了阶段性集合竞价制度的市场出清过程。阶段性集合竞价制度的核心在于市场出清时间间隔的设定。本文构建了一个存在信息摩擦和知情交易者学习机制的集合竞价市场出清模型,讨论了市场出清时间间隔对价格发现效率、资产价值不确定性和流动性风险的影响。研究发现:(1)在完美信息条件下,如果对市场规模较大和价值波动率较高的资产设定较短的市场出清时间间隔,将会降低投资者的流动性风险,提升市场质量;(2)在不完美信息条件下,除市场规模和资产价值波动率之外,信息不对称程度和知情交易者比例也是影响最优市场出清频率的重要因素;(3)在不完美信息条件下,对价值波动率较低的资产缩短市场出清时间间隔才能降低流动性风险,这与完美信息条件下的结论相反。     

Modeling and analysis of an auction-based logistics market

We consider a logistics spot market where the transportation orders from a number of firms are matched with two types of carriers through a reverse auction. In the spot market, local carriers compete with in-transit carriers that have lower costs. In order to analyze the effects of implementing a logistics spot market on these three parties: firms, local carriers, and in-transit carriers and also the effects of various system parameters, we develop a two-stage stochastic model. We first model the auction in a static setting and determine the expected auction price based on the number of carriers engaging in the auction and their cost distributions. We then develop a continuous-time Markov chain model to evaluate the performance of the system in a dynamic setting with random arrivals and possible abandonment of orders and carriers. By combining these two models, we evaluate the performance measures such as the expected auction price, price paid to the carriers, distribution of orders between local and in-transit carriers, and expected number of carriers and orders waiting at the logistics center in the long run. We present analytical and computational results related to the performance of the system and discuss operation of such a logistics spot market in Turkey.     

基于价格歧视策略的多单元逆向多属性英式拍卖机制

针对现有的多单元逆向多属性拍卖机制的市场分配效率都比较低,不利于社会效益最大化和采购双方长期合作等问题,设计了高效率的基于价格歧视策略的多单元逆向多属性英式拍卖机制,利用线性混合整数规划建立了赢者确定模型,并基于新建立的拍卖机制给出了拍卖流程和投标策略,为供应商提供投标决策支持。然后通过设计数值实例和对比模拟实验收集数据,采取统计分析的方法验证了新设计的拍卖机制市场分配效率和采购方的效益都比较高。上述研究结果适用于通过逆向多属性拍卖与信息技术相结合的网上自动化多单元商品采购。     

夜盘交易对我国农产品期货市场影响的实证研究

随着我国农产品期货与国际市场的联动性进一步加强,为防止相关期货产品的隔夜风险和价格跳水问题,对部分农产品期货实行夜盘交易制度。为测度夜盘交易制度是否有益于农产品期货市场朝着稳定、理性的方向发展,本文采用了适合刻画金融序列波动性的GARCH族模型,实证检验得出GARCH、GARCH-M和EGARCH模型能够高度拟合农产品期货的价格序列并显著衡量夜盘交易对于我国农产品期货市场的影响。研究结论如下:第一、基于GRACH模型实证结果,夜盘交易制度变量的回归结果显著,该制度能减轻农产品期货的价格波动,且其影响是显著的;第二、EGARCH模型的回归结果同样显著,分别对比不同样本期的EGARCH模型实证结果可以得到,夜盘交易的开放减少了农产品期货市场的非对称性,使得市场趋向于理性的方向发展。     

On the strategic origin of Brownian motion in finance

This paper is concerned with the strategic use of a private information on the stock market. A repeated auction model is used to analyze the evolution of the price system on a market with asymmetric information.  The model turns out to be a zero-sum repeated game with one-sided information, as introduced by Aumann and Maschler.  The stochastic evolution of the price system can be explicitly computed in the n times repeated case. As n grows to ∞, this process tends to a continuous time martingale related to a Brownian Motion.  This paper provides in this way an endogenous justification for the appearance of Brownian Motion in Finance theory. Received: February 2002     

Mean–variance optimal trading problem subject to stochastic dominance constraints with second order autoregressive price dynamics

The efficient modeling of execution price path of an asset to be traded is an important aspect of the optimal trading problem. In this paper an execution price path based on the second order autoregressive process is proposed. The proposed price path is a generalization of the existing first order autoregressive price path in literature. Using dynamic programming method the analytical closed form solution of unconstrained optimal trading problem under the second order autoregressive process is derived. However in order to incorporate non-negativity constraints in the problem formulation, the optimal static trading problems under second order autoregressive price process are formulated. For a risk neutral investor, the optimal static trading problem of minimizing expected execution cost subject to non-negativity constraints is formulated as a quadratic programming problem. Whereas, for a risk averse investor the variance of execution cost is considered as a measure for the timing risk, and the mean–variance problem is formulated. Moreover, the optimal static trading problem subject to stochastic dominance constraints with mean–variance static trading strategy as the reference strategy is studied. Using Static approximation method the algorithm to solve proposed optimal static trading problems is presented. With numerical illustrations conducted on simulated data and the real market data, the significance of second order autoregressive price path, and the optimal static trading problems is presented.     

金融系统的非线性分析:交易量对股价波动的非线性影响

如何研究股价波动和成交量之间的关系一直是金融系统研究中感兴趣的话题.Lamoureux 和 Lastrapes 认为选择日交易量度量每天流入市场的信息量是合理的,但他们假定交易量对波动率的影响是线性的.提出部分非线性GARCH模型分析交易量对股票市场波动率的影响,基于GARCH模型局部线性化非参数似然估计方法,对中国证券市场股票价格和交易量数据进行实证研究.结果表明,交易量对股价波动的影响具有显著的非线性性.