多灾种相关性研究进展与灾害综合机理的认识

本文总结了前人关于旱、涝、震灾害相关性研究的一些进展,介绍了目前关于自然灾害综合机理的一些认识。在此基础上,就地下能量对旱、涝、震灾害可能的影响作用和影响过程进行了探讨,认为从多圈层相互作用的角度来看,地下的能量聚散同旱、涝、震灾害可能存在着内在的有机联系。之后,指出了多灾种相关性研究现存的一些主要问题。     

基于层次分析法的咸阳市多灾种自然灾害综合风险评价

当今世界地质灾害、洪水灾害和地震灾害等多种自然灾害频发,灾害群聚与群发现象导致灾情加重,人们越来越关注如何降低多灾种自然灾害的风险。以陕西省咸阳市为例,将咸阳市地质灾害、洪水灾害和地震灾害结合起来,开展多灾种自然灾害风险综合评价。研究结果表明,咸阳市多灾种自然灾害风险分区呈现出明显的空间差异性,整体上渭河河谷沿线地段和西北侧的中低山丘陵区风险程度以中风险和高风险为主,主要集中在秦都区城区东南侧、武功县西北侧、乾县县城区、三原县城区东侧、淳化县城区、彬州市城区以及旬邑县县城区,其他区域自然灾害风险程度以低风险和极低风险为主。研究成果可为咸阳市应急管理和国土空间规划带来一定的借鉴意义和指导作用。     

基于GIS的山区村镇多灾种耦合风险评估

为解决在山区村镇多灾种综合风险评估中忽略灾害间相互作用、对村镇防灾减灾规划指导缺乏的问题,提出基于GIS的多灾种耦合风险评估模型。本文以神农架林区为研究对象,选取山洪、泥石流和滑坡3种主要自然灾害为评价对象,从危险性、易损性两个方面,致灾因子、孕灾环境、承载体暴露性与敏感性、防灾减灾能力四个角度建立评价体系,基于ArcGIS 10.1空间分析技术进行多灾种风险耦合分析,利用风险矩阵完成综合评估。结果显示:神农架自然灾害风险高值区主要分布在林区西部和南部大部分地区、东北部局部地区。该模型提高了多灾种耦合风险评估的准确度、角度精度,改进后的模型具有较高的实用价值。     

青藏高原多灾种自然灾害综合风险管理

青藏高原是中国自然灾害多发、频发重点区域,区内地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决、雪灾等灾种广泛发育,其灾害分布较广,灾损及其影响巨大,已成为高原经济社会可持续、健康发展的一个重要制约因素。高原自然灾害风险等级具有明显的空间异质性。整体上,地震、滑坡泥石流、冰湖溃决灾害高危区位于高原南部和东部边缘大片区域,该区域也是高原多灾种频发地带,许多路网和管网均处于该频发地段,其潜在危害巨大。青藏高原地形地貌复杂、气候变化空间异质性较强、冰冻圈发育,交通等基础设施广布,经济条件较差,这些因素形成了多灾种自然灾害发育的主要致灾因子和孕灾环境。高原受多致灾因子共同影响,各灾种承灾体多有重叠之处,亟须加强多灾种自然灾害综合管控研究。综合风险管控主导思路是决策者利用多灾种成灾机理研究结果,通过工程和非工程措施,以及各部门联防联控理念,全过程防范、减缓或规避自然灾害综合风险。具体综合风险管控策略如实时监测/观测、信息共享、部委会商、群测群防、防灾教育培训、保险承担、灾前规划。     

论综合灾害风险防范模式——寻求全球变化影响的适应性对策

在评述国际上近年开展综合灾害风险研究进展的基础上,总结了笔者对综合灾害研究的一些想法与开展综合灾害风险防范的实践,提出了建立综合灾害风险防范模式,即发展区域灾害系统的理论;综合灾害脆弱性、恢复性与适应性,全面理解灾害风险的形成机制;整合政府、企业与社会减灾资源,系统集成区域减灾范式;建立巨灾风险转移机制,实现减灾由区域防范到全球防范的综合。     

全球环境变化与综合灾害风险防范研究

实现可持续发展,需要加深理解全球环境变化对可更新资源保障能力和灾害发生频率、强度和时空格局的影响。近年来发生在世界各国的巨灾造成了严重的灾情,如2008年中国南方的冰冻雨雪灾害,2007年孟加拉国的台风灾害,2005年的美国卡特里娜飓风等。加强对全球环境变化背景下的综合灾害风险防范研究已成为一个迫切需要解决的可持续发展问题。为此,在CNC IHDP的领导下,CNC IHDP RG工作组向IHDP提出了开展全球环境变化与综合风险防范研究的建议。经过2年多的努力,作为IHDP新一轮国际性核心科学计划——综合风险防范（IHDP IRG）已经得到IHDP SC的认可,即将于2009年4月在德国波恩IHDP科学大会期间正式宣布启动。该核心计划为从事风险研究、管理和具体实践方面的全球顶级专家和组织搭建交流平台,并引导未来国际综合风险防范研究从综合灾害风险防范的科学、技术与管理问题入手,通过案例对比,从多学科角度,对综合灾害风险防范的理论和方法进行创新性研究,以推动全球综合减灾实践的深入发展。CNC IHDP RG作为这一核心科学计划的倡议、发起和主要组织者,通过该计划的成功实施,不但可以在国际上充分展现我国综合灾害风险研究领域的成果,更将有助于大幅度提升中国在全球环境变化研究中的国际地位。     

中国的巨灾风险与巨灾防范

巨灾是指对人民生命财产造成特别巨大损失,对社会经济发展产生严重影响的自然灾害事件。我国巨灾主要为特大洪水、大地震以及特大风暴潮、持续性大面积干旱。新中国建立以来,共有18个年份发生巨灾。巨灾频发的根本原因是,自然条件复杂多变,多种异常动力活动强烈;减灾基础薄弱,巨灾防范能力不足。未来时期,巨灾对国家安全和社会经济威胁依然严重,预测有11个高风险区,分布在东部沿海和部分中部地区。巨灾防范对策包括:提高认识、加强研究、建立管理系统及预警系统、制定应急预案、加强国际合作交流等。      

国有企业法律风险防范机制的建立与健全

随着国有企业现代企业制度的建立，我国各项法律法规也日益完善。企业如何实现依法经营、强化内部管理，运用法律手段化解经营风险，是当前国有企业亟待解决的问题。国务院国资委下发的《中央企业重大法律纠纷案件管理暂行办法》要求中央企业逐步建立法律风险防范机制，设立企业法律顾问，把依法经营纳入企业管理的各个环节。分析了同有企业面临的法律风险现状和重要性之后，提出了建立法律风险防范机制的几项措施手段，以便为国企的健康发展保驾护航。     

"水墨画"种翡翠的矿物学特征研究

"水墨画"种翡翠是市场上出现的翡翠新品种,得名于其黑色不透明物质在无色的"地"上的不规则分布,形似水墨画。本文运用电子探针、X射线粉晶衍射、红外光谱等分析手段对"水墨画"种翡翠进行了研究,结果表明,"水墨画"种翡翠矿物组成以硬玉和绿辉石为主,含有少量的斜长石、磁铁矿及黑色不透明杂质。黑色杂质和磁铁矿为导致该种翡翠产生黑色和不透明的水墨画状外观的主要原因。     

基于景观格局—过程的城市自然灾害生态风险研究:回顾与展望

随着当前中国城市化进程的不断加速,自然灾害对城市生态安全的潜在威胁日趋受到关注。城市景观结构和空间形态影响着城市生态环境问题的产生和解决途径,基于景观格局—过程的城市/区域自然灾害生态风险评价成为城市生态风险及可持续研究的重要方向。在明晰城市自然灾害生态风险基本概念内涵及单一、综合自然灾害作用下城市生态风险评价研究进展的基础上,系统梳理了城市地域自然灾害、生态风险与景观格局—过程之间的逻辑关联,综合探讨了城市景观格局—过程与自然灾害交互作用及其在城市生态风险评价、自然灾害生态风险防范等重点领域的研究进展,并提出城市景观格局—过程与自然灾害生态风险的相互影响机理探索、景观时空尺度分异与城市自然灾害生态风险的不确定性分析、基于景观格局—过程的城市自然灾害生态风险综合评估模型与情景模拟等三大重大研究趋向,以期实现基于景观优化的城市自然灾害和生态风险防范的研究目标。     

Integrated Risk Assessment and Governance of Multi-hazards in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

The construction of the Yangtze River Economic Belt is one of the major strategic initiatives to promote the sustained and steady growth of China's economy at current and the new normal stages. Comprehensive enhancing the governance levels of various natural disaster risks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt is the basic guarantee for promoting the implementation of the development strategy. Based on the multi-hazard integrated risk theory, the main disaster risks of the core cities (Shanghai, Wuhan, and Chongqing) of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the major risk-earthquake disaster chain were systematically analyzed. The status and existing problems of multi-hazard integrated risk governance in the Yangtze River Economic Belt were expounded in this paper. The main problems include: Insufficient understanding of multi-hazard integrated risk formation mechanism; low level of safety fortification; Imperfect regional coordination and linkage mechanism; and insufficient role of insurance and reinsurance in risk transfer. Finally, the overall promotion strategies were proposed, including establishing multi-hazard integrated risk identification mechanism and governance capability evaluation system; comprehensive improving the fortification level of multi-hazard integrated risk prevention; establishing multi-hazard and multi-party linkage disaster monitoring and early warning systems; strengthening major disaster risk management and evacuation facilities construction; accelerating the construction of catastrophe insurance systems based on multi-hazard risks. This will provide a theoretical reference for major disaster risks studies in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.     

A Similitude Theory for Bucket Foundations Under Monotonic Horizontal Load in Dense Sand

This paper aims at finding force-displacement relationships to be employed in the design of bucket foundations for offshore wind turbine. This is accomplished by combining small-scale tests and element tests within a theoretical framework. A similitude theory, regarding the lateral displacement of bucket foundations under horizontal load, is put forward. A constitutive law of the soil and a load-displacement relationship for the bucket foundation are theoretically obtained. Triaxial tests of sand, and small-scale tests of bucket foundation, are respectively employed to corroborate the theory. Attention is given to the different behaviour shown during the compressive and dilative phases of the soil. Some analogy between triaxial tests and tests of bucket foundation are pointed out. A theoretically derived power law is found capable to represent the dimensionless horizontal load-displacement curves of experimental results. In accordance with the theory, the exponent of the power law slightly varies between tests with considerably different features. The non-dimensional moment-rotation relationship is represented by a power law as well. The approach is considered valid for fatigue design. The study may be an interesting source for further researches on long-term cyclic horizontal loading.     

Hazards Risk Assessment Methodology for Emergency Managers: A Standardized Framework for Application

The public and the decision and policy makers who serve themtoo often have a view of community risks that is influenced and distorted significantlyby media exposure and common misconceptions. The regulators and managers, responsible forplanning and coordination of a community's mitigation, preparedness, response and recoveryefforts, are originated from a variety of disciplines and levels of education. Not only mustthese individuals deal with the misconceptions of their communities, but also frequently lacka basic methodology for the assessment of risks. The effective planning of mitigation andresponse are, however, directly dependent upon the understanding of the complexities, types,and nature of risks faced by the community, determining the susceptible areas, and conceptualizinghuman vulnerability.In this study, a review of the existing literature on both theconceptual underpinnings of risk and its assessment is attempted. A standardized framework is proposedfor use by all emergency managers, regardless of training or education. This frameworkconsists of the numerical ranking of the frequency of the event in the community, multiplied bya numerical ranking of the severity or magnitude of an event in a given community, based upon thepotential impact characteristics of a `worst-case' scenario. This figure is then multipliedby a numerical ranking indicating the Social Consequence; a combination of community perception ofrisk level and collective will to address the problem. The resulting score, which is notstrictly scientific, would permit emergency managers from a variety of backgrounds to comparelevels of community exposure to such disparate events as hazardous materials spills andtornadoes, and to set priorities for both mitigation efforts and for the acquisition of response needs,within the availability of community resources.     

Seismic Hazard and Risk Assessment for Tulbagh,South Africa: Part II – Assessment of Seismic Risk

This is the second part of our study on the assessment of seismic hazard and seismic risk for Tulbagh, the settlement, located about 90 km N-E from Cape Town, where the strongest and most damaging earthquake known in the existing earthquake history of South Africa took place. This part of our study, which can be read independently from Part I, concentrates on the probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) forTulbagh. The work begins with an introduction and a historical perspective on the estimation of seismic damage to buildings. The methodology for the estimation of expected damage from a probabilistic point of view is then presented. The work closes with an application of the described methodology to a site in the vicinity of Tulbagh.     

A Multidisciplinary Methodology for Hazard and Risk Assessment of Rock Avalanches

Summary A quantitative procedure for hazard and risk assessment of large landslides that can develop as rock avalanches is discussed in this paper. Reference is made to the IMIRILAND project, where a multidisciplinary methodology has been developed paying particular attention to the landslide modeling process that leads to the quantification of the hazard, i.e. the prediction of the occurrence probability, the involved area and the run-out velocity. The risk assessment methodology is exemplified in the paper with reference to two cases: the Ceppo Morelli and Rosone landslides, both of which are located in the Italian Western Alps. The results of these applications show that, despite the development of sophisticated 3D numerical methods, many uncertainties still remain in the process of modeling large and complex landslides, related in particular to the definition of the probability of failure and the rheological parameters to be used for the prediction of rock mass behavior. However geo-mechanical models are found to be very valuable tools to verify, from a mechanical point of view, the assumptions introduced through the geo-structural and geo-morphological analyses concerning the volume and the kinematics of the unstable mass, and their role is fundamental for the determination of the involved area when mechanical parameters can be assumed with sufficient reliability. Author’s address: Marta Castelli, Politecnico di Torino – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Corso Duca degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy     

舟曲三眼峪泥石流风险评价

以往的泥石流风险评价仅局限于某个单一时点的风险分析,而对泥石流发生前后和治理前后的评价因子变化情况以及由此带来的风险变化则缺少分析和研究。选择舟曲三眼峪泥石流作为研究对象,采用单沟泥石流风险度评价模型,利用现场调查、工程勘查、工程设计等资料,分析“8．8”前、现状情况下和治理后3个不同时点的评价因子变化情况,得到各自的危险度和易损度评价参数;分别对这3个时点的泥石流风险度做了计算,得到各自风险度的大小;最后对评价结果做了讨论,分析了不同时点风险度发生变化的具体原因。     

市政管道的全寿命风险评估

市政管道的全寿命风险评估是市政管道风险管理的重要组成部分,准确而有效的评估决策关系到管道建设的成败问题。本文通过对市政管道全寿命周期内单元风险进行识别与分类;采用现有的管道风险技术,和专家评分法等方法对风险因子进行实效因素评分,然后进行市政管道的全寿命风险评估。     

Model on Improved Variable Weight-Matter Element Theory for Risk Assessment of Water Inrush in Karst Tunnels

Geotechnical and Geological Engineering - This paper presents an improved risk assessment model to evaluate the risk of water inrush in karst tunnels based on matter element theory and ideal point...