初论地球自然灾害系统

在地核和太阳强大的热能驱动下,开放的地球系统固液气态物质发生不同尺度的循环运动。流体运动是地球物质运动的主导因子。地球不均匀热结构导致流体不均匀流动,涉及固流气耦合、天地耦合、地气耦合、洋陆耦合和盆山耦合,产生能量链、物质链、结构链、事件链、资源链、能源链、灾害链和环境链。地球内部热动力及其相关的重力、应力、引潮力联合作用于地球某个特殊部位,形成一系列具有成因联系、时空联系、前兆联系的自然灾害。通过灾害链的时空结构和有成因联系的前兆异常可以预测灾害,能够有效地防灾。地热异常区与灾害多发区吻合。在合适的构造部位系统开发地热和地气,能够有效地减灾和减排,并彻底改善能源结构,消除能源危机。     

天津市中心妇产科医院迁址新建工程

一、工程概况 天津市中心妇产科医院迁址到南开区,北至南开三纬路,东至南开三马路。西临南开医院用地,南至天津市高级人民法院及天津液压机械集团公司用地,规划总用地面积55263．4平方米,     

中国自然灾害及减灾战略研讨

在减轻自然灾害的工作中战略研究有其特殊的重要意义.减灾战略研究是针对一定地域中各种灾害的相互关系,以及灾害和环境演化的相互关系进行综合研究,认识自然灾害的总体规律性,作为指导各类灾害研究,制订总体的长远的减灾对策,以及采取重大的,根本的减灾措施的基础。本文从基本概念、控制因素、关联性规律几方面论述了减灾战略研究的基础,进而提出了灾害趋势预测和减灾战略决策问题并提出了我国减灾战略的若干要点.     

与水文气象、地质因素有关的几种自然灾害概念的辨析

阐述了地质灾害、山地灾害、山洪灾害等与水文气象和地质因素相关的自然灾害的概念及分类,比较三者内涵与外延的差异,对三种灾害防治工作中的一些共性问题作了初步探讨。研究表明：地质灾害、山地灾害和山洪灾害三者在概念、内涵及研究对象等方面有所不同,但主要内容是相同的。在三种灾害的研究与防治上,由各个部门管理模式不利于此类灾害的跨行业、跨部门协同研究及防灾救灾。     

自然灾害脆弱性曲线研究进展

在全球变化与全球化背景下自然灾害风险逐年增大,灾害评估就成为风险防范的重要基础。灾害评估包括灾情估算与风险评估2个方面,而脆弱性分析是把灾害与风险研究紧密联系起来的重要桥梁。脆弱性曲线作为定量精确评估承灾体脆弱性的方法,近年来在多领域被广泛运用,成为灾情估算、风险定量分析以及风险地图编制的关键环节。从致灾因子角度综述脆弱性曲线的研究进展,重点阐述基于灾情数据、已有曲线、调查和模型的脆弱性曲线构建。研究表明脆弱性曲线构建由单曲线向多曲线库、单一参数向综合参数、单一方法向多领域综合应用发展,具有综合化和精细化的趋势。进一步开展多领域、多方法综合脆弱性曲线研究,对灾损快速评估及风险评价,防灾减灾具有重要意义。     

天津市大地构造相划分

为了总结天津市区域成矿规律、进行成矿远景预测,为天津市矿产资源潜力评价提供基础资料,五年多来笔者一直从事天津市矿产资源潜力评价研究工作.在大地构造相图编制过程中,根据板块构造-地球动力学理论,以优势大地构造相为原则,沉积岩建造构造、火山岩性岩相构造、侵入岩浆构造、变质建造构造和变形构造等分析研究为基础,把一种岩石或几种岩石的组合作为岩石构造组合进行系统研究,然后,对天津市大地构造相进行了划分.天津市可分为一个华北陆块区相系和一个冀辽陆块大相,在此基础上划分了5个相,即古弧盆相、夭折裂谷相、陆表海盆地相、盘山板内岩浆杂岩相和坳陷盆地相,又进一步划分为9个亚相和7个岩石构造组合(Ⅴ级).     

天津市大地构造单元划分

在板块构造-地球动力学理论指导下,通过地层划分的对比、沉积建造、火山岩建造、侵入岩建造、变质建造、大型变形构造、成矿作用、地球化学和地球物理场等地质记录的研究,通过大地构造相环境恢复的研究,将天津市地质构造单元划分一个Ⅰ级和Ⅱ级单元,分别为(Ⅰ)华北陆块区和(Ⅱ)晋冀古陆块.在此基础上划分了4个Ⅲ级单元:分别为(Ⅲ1)密云-迁西太古宙陆核带、(Ⅲ2)燕辽裂陷带、(Ⅲ3)盘山板内造山岩浆杂岩和(Ⅲ4)华北裂陷带,又进一步划分了7个Ⅳ级单元和14个Ⅴ级单元.     

天津市大地构造相与成矿

在板块构造理论指导下,对天津市大地构造相进行了系统的划分,全面地总结了天津成矿地质构造环境。各种矿床都是在大地构造演化过程中的特定大地构造相环境下形成的特殊地质体,成矿作用过程与大地构造演化密切相关。研究表明古弧盆相中的新太古代角闪斜长片麻岩中含铁矿残留透镜体;大陆裂谷相的长城纪含有比较重要的非金属矿产陶瓷土矿和含钾泥岩等;稳定型陆表海相沉积的中-新元古代水泥石灰岩矿、锰(硼)矿、砖瓦用页岩矿、铁矿等;印支晚期板内造山岩浆杂岩有岩浆矿床磷,岩浆期后热液矿床钨、金、重晶石等,接触交代(矽卡岩)矿床有钼、硫铁及铜矿等金属矿产;新生代地层为坳陷盆地相碎屑岩沉积,富含有丰富的油页岩、石油等矿产。本次工作的目的就是研究各级大地构造相单元与成矿构造体系及成矿类型的关系,建立大地构造相与成矿作用的时空及岩石构造组合关系。     

区域泥石流灾害的定量风险分析

概述了区域泥石流灾害的风险分析体系,指出了过去区域泥石流灾害危险性研究中的某些误区以及区域社会经济易损性评价的难点。借助于“灾害熵”的概念,提出了区域泥石流灾害危险性定量分析的一种新方法。通过将泥石流灾害的危险性和区域社会经济易损性进行分级,建立了风险评价矩阵。在此基础上,对区域泥石流灾害的风险进行了分级,可为有效地进行区域泥石流灾害的预警,以及为减灾防灾奠定了坚实的基础。     

Natural hazards in the Bavarian Alps: a historical approach to risk assessment

The Bavarian Alps region is strongly affected by various natural hazards, mainly hydrological events (floods, debris flows), geomorphic/geological events (landslides, rock falls), and avalanches. Extraordinary floods, like in 2002 or in the summer of 2005 in south Bavaria, have again posed the question of the possible extent and frequency of recurrence of catastrophic events. To put risk assessment on a broader basis historical data about all kinds of past natural hazards were detected in the archives of local authorities and administrative offices for water management. More than 10,000 sources (written accounts, maps, and photographs) were collated in a database. The majority of this information reaches back to the middle of the 19th century. In addition, many documents referring to events dating back even as far as the middle age were found. The Historische Analyse von NaturGefahren (HANG, historical analysis of natural hazards) project at the University of Eichstaett mainly focuses on a small-scale examination of the data. Initial results of the data analysis show that most catastrophic events in the Bavarian Alps only affect parts of the area, but not the whole region. Therefore it is necessary to assess the risk potential on a local scale like valleys, the catchment areas of mountain streams, or even single streams. Firstly the presented data is aimed to help engineers in future planning of hazard-protection measures. Secondly the information can form a vital component to enhance our knowledge of hydrological and geomorphic/geological dynamics in the Alps.     

Risk assessment of land subsidence at Tianjin coastal area in China

Risk assessment and zoning are very important to risk management. In this study, a land subsidence risk assessment index was proposed based on the Disaster Risk Index. The cumulative subsidence volume, the land subsidence velocity, and the groundwater exploitation intensity were collected, analyzed, and put together to create a land subsidence hazard evaluation map in Tianjin coastal area. The population density, Gross Domestic Product per square kilometer, and construction land proportion were adopted as indexes to create the vulnerability map. In addition, the capability of land subsidence prevention and reduction was also assessed. Finally, the land subsidence risk map was created by combing the hazard, vulnerability, and the capability of land subsidence prevention and reduction map. Specifically, the land subsidence risk was classified into five levels, i.e., very high, high, medium, low, and very low. The result of this research could provide a solid basis for the sustainable development as well as disaster prevention policy-making of Tianjin city.     

Impact assessment using DEA of coastal hazards on social-economy in Southeast Asia

Southeast Asian countries suffer from severe coastal hazards each year. A large number of these countries are incurring consequential costs that impact their national economies. It is crucial, therefore, to analyze the impact of such hazards on their economic development and provide a solid basis for future development strategies. The purpose of this paper is to assess the relationship between the economic development and the losses from coastal disasters, and to identify both the impact of hazards on the development, as well as the function of such development on the resilience to hazards. The data envelopment analysis (DEA) method is employed to build the assessment models. Data from 1995 to 2005 from eight Southeast countries are analyzed using the DEA models. A set of “resilience index” of these countries are concluded from the results. It is found that the economic development does not contribute to the strengthening of national resilience to coastal hazards. Inappropriate development could even impair the resilience. Additionally, the resilience to coastal hazards is impacted by various factors such as the allocation of resources and external assistance. From the analysis, a clear image is gained of the interaction between economic development and coastal hazards, which provides a basis for future development strategies.

Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area

Natural Hazards - In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the...     

Natural hazards in Taiwan

Due to the frequent earthquake, steep slope, weak geological formation, erodible soil, and intensive rainfall in summer season, several kinds of natural hazard such as earthquake, typhoon, flooding, landslide and landsubsidence have suffered in Taiwan. Landslide and soil loss are major hazards in mountains and hills while flooding and land subsidence in the alluvial plain and low land by the coast. The magnitude and occurence of each kind of natural hazard are varied according to intensity of process and physical geographic environment. However, the research on natural hazards have been promoted by academic institution and numerous reduction treatments such as dams, dikes have been constructed to mitigate the vulnerability to natural hazards.     

New risk assessment products for dealing with financial exposure to weather hazards

A market place designed to provide a variety of weather-sensitive institutions with products for dealing with their risks from weather-climate hazards has been developing in recent years. Shifts in demographics, growing population, and greater wealth across the U.S., coupled with de-regulation of utilities and expansion of global economics, have increased corporate vulnerability to weather/climate extremes. Availability of long-term quality climate data and new technologies have allowed development of weather-risk products. One widely used by electric-gas utilities is weather derivatives. These allow a utility to select a financially critical seasonal weather threshold and for a price paid to a provider, to get financial payments if this threshold is exceeded. Another new product primarily used by the insurance industry is weather risk models. These define the potential risks of severe weather losses across a region where little historical insured loss data exists. Firms develop weather-risk models based on historical storm information combined with a target region’s societal, economic, and physical conditions. Examples of the derivatives and weather-risk models and their uses are presented. These various endeavors of the new weather market exhibit the potential for dealing with shifts in weather risks due to a change in climate.     

Vulnerability assessment for preliminary flood risk mapping and management in coastal areas

Despite continuing technological advancement in hazard and vulnerability assessment, risk modelling and hazard mitigation techniques, losses to disasters associated with natural hazards continue and in some cases are increasing across Europe and worldwide. This paper focuses on the need to bridge the gap between technical solutions and the sociopolitical contexts in which these are produced, to better understand and create more effective risk management regimes. We do so with application of the science–policy co-production frame to landslide risk management in Italy. The methodology deployed included a desk study informed by semi-structured interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders at national, regional and municipal level. We propose a normative and analytical framework for transferring co-production into natural hazard research by presenting a matrix identifying four contexts within which co-production may unfold. The matrix is based on two axes, which distinguish between innovation and its absence in science and policy domains. We examine several examples of co-production, such as the water–soil integrated approach to risk management or the implementation of hazard/risk assessment. The results highlight that the insulation of science from the institutional context within which knowledge is produced and used is a very problematic issue. This often hinders the implementation of desirable policies and undermines the effectiveness of interventions. Moreover, innovation in science and policy does not automatically result in successful solutions for landslide risk management. Finally, results confirm the utility of co-production but also highlight methodological challenges associated with the introduction of this new conceptual paradigm into the well-structured communities of scientists and policy-makers.     

GIS技术在四川省九龙县地质灾害危险性评价中的应用

文章结合九龙县地质灾害调查与区划项目,在对全县地质灾害特征和影响因素调查基础上,探讨了GIS技术在九龙县地质灾害危险性评价中的应用,描述了GIS图形处理和空间分析功能支持下的地质灾害危险性评价思路,并介绍了评价因子选取、栅格单元划分、结果评价等问题。分析结果表明,将GIS技术应用于九龙县地质灾害危险性评价中可以提高评价效率和准确性,评价效果较好。     

Natural hazards vs human impact: an integrated methodological approach in geomorphological risk assessment on the Tursi historical site, Southern Italy

The Tursi–Rabatana historical site is very representative of the cultural heritage of Basilicata, Southern Italy. Morphological evolution of the landscape is characterized by very intense erosive phenomena such as landslides, deep gullies, rills, and piping, which affect the perimeter of urban settlements and threaten the conservation of these sites. Rainfalls and the lithology of the substratum are the main factors to which the landscape evolution is linked, triggering landslide and linear erosion phenomena. Climate analysis carried out during the last century showed an increasing trend in the rainfall intensity over extremely short periods. This condition also induced an increase in the vulnerability level of the slopes. Integrated analysis between territorial data (geology, geomorphology, climate) and historical documents showed that, at least from the last century, the geomorphological hazard has been accentuated by the intense human activity of cave excavation along several fronts under the present urban area. The geophysical investigation also permitted the mapping of shallow caves and tunnels in the subsurface reconstructing the multilevel complex hypogeal system. This work also produced evidence that the human interventions occurring during the historical period have been a determining factor in increasing the hazard level and accelerating the preexisting morphological processes.