Individual and combined effects of land use/cover and climate change on Wolf Bay watershed streamflow in southern Alabama

Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impacts of climate change and land use change on runoff of forest catchment in northeast China

Hydrological processes change from the impacts of climate variability and human activities. Runoff in the upper reaches of the Hun‐Taizi River basin, which is mainly covered by forests in northeast China, decreased from 1960 to 2006. The data used in this study were based on runoff records from six hydrological stations in the upper reaches of the Hun‐Taizi River basin. Nonparametric Mann–Kendall statistic was used to identify change trends and abrupt change points and consequently analyze the change characteristics in hydrological processes. The abrupt change in the annual runoff in most subcatchments appeared after 1975. Finally, the effects of climate change and land cover change on water resources were identified using regression analysis and a hydrology model. Results of the regression analysis suggest that the correlation coefficients between precipitation and runoff prior to the abrupt change were higher compared with those after the abrupt change. Moreover, using hydrology model analysis, the water yield was found to increase because of the decrease in forest land. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Sensitivity of streamflow from a Himalayan catchment to plausible changes in land cover and climate

Global climate change will likely increase temperature and variation in precipitation in the Himalayas, modifying both supply of and demand for water. This study assesses combined impacts of land‐cover and climate changes on hydrological processes and a rainfall‐to‐streamflow buffer indicator of watershed function using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Kejie watershed in the eastern Himalayas. The Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3) was used for two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenarios (A2 and B2), for 2010–2099. Four land‐cover change scenarios increase forest, grassland, crops, or urban land use, respectively, reducing degraded land. The SWAT model predicted that downstream water resources will decrease in the short term but increase in the long term. Afforestation and expansion in cropland will probably increase actual evapotranspiration (ET) and reduce annual streamflow but will also, through increased infiltration, reduce the overland flow component of streamflow and increase groundwater release. An expansion in grassland will decrease actual ET, increase annual streamflow and groundwater release, while decreasing overland flow. Urbanization will result in increases in streamflow and overland flow and reductions in groundwater release and actual ET. Land‐cover change dominated over effects on streamflow of climate change in the short and middle terms. The predicted changes in buffer indicator for land‐use plus climate‐change scenarios reach up to 50% of the current (and future) range of inter‐annual variability. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modeling the climatic effects of the land use/cover change in eastern China

This study aims to quantify the contribution of land use/cover change (LUCC) during the last three decades to climate change conditions in eastern China. The effects of farmland expansion in Northeast China, grassland degradation in Northwest China, and deforestation in South China were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in addition to the latest actual land cover datasets. The simulated results show that when forestland is converted to farmland, the air temperature decreased owing to an increase in surface albedo in Northeast China. The climatic effect of grassland degradation on the Loess Plateau was insignificant because of the negligible difference in albedo between grassland and cropland. In South China, deforestation generally led to a decrease in temperature. Furthermore, the temperature decrease caused by the increase in albedo counteracted the warming effects of the evapotranspiration decrease, so the summer temperature change was not significant in South China. Excluding the effects of urbanization in the North China Plain, the LUCC effects across the entire region of East China presented an overall cooling trend. However, the variation in temperature scale and magnitude was less in summer than that in winter. This result is due mainly to the cooling caused by the increase in albedo offset partly by the increase in temperature caused by the decrease in evaporation in summer. Summer precipitation showed a trend of increasing–decreasing–increasing from southeast to northwest after LUCC, which was induced mainly by the decrease in surface roughness and cyclone circulations appearing northwest of Northeast China, in the middle of the Loess Plateau, and in Yunnan province at 700 hPa after forests were converted into farmland. All results will be instructive for understanding the influence of LUCC on regional climate and future land planning in practice.     

Quantifying the impacts of climate change and land use/cover change on runoff in the lower Connecticut River Basin

Climate change and land use and cover change (LUCC) have had great impacts on watershed hydrological processes. Although previous studies have focused on quantitative assessment of the impacts of climate change and human activities on decreasing run‐off change, few studies have examined regions that have significant increasing run‐off due to both climate variability and land cover change. We show that annual run‐off had a significant increasing trend from 1956 to 2014 in the U.S. lower Connecticut River Basin. Abrupt change point years of annual run‐off for four subbasins are detected by nonparametric Mann–Kendall–Sneyers test and reconfirmed by the double mass curve. We then divide the study period into 2 subperiods at the abrupt change point year in the early 1970s for each subbasin. The Choudhury–Yang equation based on Budyko hypothesis was used to calculate precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, and landscape elasticities of run‐off. The results show that the difference in mean annual run‐off between 2 subperiods for each subbasin ranged from 102 to 165.6 mm. Climate variations were the primary drivers of increasing run‐off in this region. Quantitative contributions of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in all subbasins are 106.5% and ?3.6% on average, respectively. However, LUCC contributed both positively and negatively to run‐off: ?18.6%, ?13.3%, and 10.1% and 9.9% for 4 subbasins. This may be attributed to historical LUCC occurring after the abrupt change point in each subbasin. Our results provide critical insight on the hydrological dynamics of north‐east tidal river systems to communities and policymakers engaged in water resources management in this region.     

Future land cover and climate may drive decreases in snow wind-scour and transpiration,increasing streamflow at a Colorado,USA headwater catchment

Understanding how land cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce disproportionate runoff relative to their land area. We coupled a land cover evolution model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model to simulate land cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 5.0 km² headwater catchment spanning the alpine–subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures both with greater air temperature (+4°C/century) and more precipitation (+15%/century, MP) or less precipitation (−15%/century, LP) from 2000 to 2100. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Surprisingly, increases in forest cover led to mean increases in annual streamflow production of 12 mm (6%) and 2 mm (1%) for MP and LP in 2050 with an annual control streamflow of 208 mm. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 91 mm (44%) and 61 mm (29%) for MP and LP. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area due to decreases in snow wind-scour and increases in drifting leeward of vegetation, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on the spatial pattern of snow scour, deposition and catchment effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land cover change is critically important due to the potential water resources impacts on downstream regions.     

Effects of a century of land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin

The Puget Sound basin in northwestern Washington, USA has experienced substantial land cover and climate change over the last century. Using a spatially distributed hydrology model (the Distributed Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model, DHSVM) the concurrent effects of changing climate (primarily temperature) and land cover in the basin are deconvolved, based on land cover maps for 1883 and 2002, and gridded climate data for 1915–2006. It is found that land cover and temperature change effects on streamflow have occurred differently at high and low elevations. In the lowlands, land cover has occurred primarily as conversion of forest to urban or partially urban land use, and here the land cover signal dominates temperature change. In the uplands, both land cover and temperature change have played important roles. Temperature change is especially important at intermediate elevations (so‐called transient snow zone), where the winter snow line is most sensitive to temperature change—notwithstanding the effects of forest harvest over the same part of the basin. Model simulations show that current land cover results in higher fall, winter and early spring streamflow but lower summer flow; higher annual maximum flow and higher annual mean streamflow compared with pre‐development conditions, which is largely consistent with a trend analysis of model residuals. Land cover change effects in urban and partially urban basins have resulted in changes in annual flow, annual maximum flows, fall and summer flows. For the upland portion of the basin, shifts in the seasonal distribution of streamflows (higher spring flow and lower summer flow) are clearly related to rising temperatures, but annual streamflow has not changed much. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the ability of large-scale hydrological models to simulate land use and land cover change impacts in Amazonian basins

ABSTRACT

The MHD-INPE model was applied in the Ji-Parana Basin, a 30 000 km² catchment located in the southwest of the Amazon Basin which has lost more than 50% of its forest since the 1980s, to simulate land use and land cover change impacts on runoff generation process and how they are related to basin topography. Simulation results agree with observational studies in the sense that fast response processes are significant in sub-basins with steep slopes while in basins with gentle topography, the impacts are most visible in slow-response hydrological processes. On the other hand, the model is not able to capture the dependence of LUCC impacts on spatial scales. These discrepancies are probably associated with limitations in the spatial representation of heterogeneities within the model, which become more relevant at larger scales. We also tested the hypothesis that secondary forest growth should be able to compensate the decrease in evapotranspiration due to forest–cropland or forest–grassland conversion at a regional scale. Results showed that despite the small fraction of secondary forest estimated on the basin, the higher evapotranspiration efficiency of this type of forest counterbalances a large fraction of the LUCC impacts on evapotranspiration. This result suggests that enhanced transpiration due to secondary forest could explain, at least in part, the lack of clear LUCC signals in discharge series at larger scales.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR T. Wagener     

Climate and land cover effects on the temperature of Puget Sound streams

We apply an integrated hydrology‐stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM‐RBM, to examine the response of the temperature of the major streams draining to Puget Sound to land cover and climate change. We first show that the model construct is able to reconstruct observed historic streamflow and stream temperature variations at a range of time scales. We then explore the relative effect of projected future climate and land cover change, including riparian vegetation, on streamflow and stream temperature. Streamflow in summer is likely to decrease as the climate warms especially in snowmelt‐dominated and transient river basins despite increased streamflow in their lower reaches associated with urbanization. Changes in streamflow also result from changes in land cover, and changes in stream shading result from changes in riparian vegetation, both of which influence stream temperature. However, we find that the effect of riparian vegetation changes on stream temperature is much greater than land cover change over the entire basin especially during summer low flow periods. Furthermore, while future projected precipitation change will have relatively modest effects on stream temperature, projected future air temperature increases will result in substantial increases in stream temperature especially in summer. These summer stream temperature increases will be associated both with increasing air temperature, and projected decreases in low flows. We find that restoration of riparian vegetation could mitigate much of the projected summer stream temperature increases. We also explore the contribution of riverine thermal loadings to the heat balance of Puget Sound, and find that the riverine contribution is greatest in winter, when streams account for up to 1/8 of total thermal inputs (averaged from December through February), with larger effects in some sub‐basins. We project that the riverine impact on thermal inputs to Puget Sound will become greater with both urbanization and climate change in winter but become smaller in summer due to climate change. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spatial and temporal variations in surface water nitrate concentrations in a mixed land use catchment under humid temperate climatic conditions

Streamwater nitrate (NO^―₃) concentrations along the main stream and at the outlet of several subcatchments within the 114\3 km² Zwalm watershed in Flanders, Belgium, have been monitored regularly since 1991. Land use within the Zwalm catchment is predominantly agricultural, with forested regions in the south and urban concentrations in the north‐east of the catchment. Streamwater NO^―₃ concentrations increased with increases in stream discharge rates, but in general, discharge rate explained only about 30% of the variation in NO^―₃ concentrations. The low R² values were attributed to the observed anticlockwise hysteresis in the NO^―₃ concentration – discharge relationship and to differences in NO^―₃ concentrations between both seasonal flow and various flow regimes, with winter flow explaining 51% of the variation in NO^―₃ concentrations, whereas summer flow explained only 28% of the variation. A hypothesis was formulated in which flow regime accounts for the seasonal variation in NO^―₃ export, postulating that the catchment seasonally alternates between two hydrological stages. The first stage occurs during wet winter periods, when the catchment drains as a single source area, whereas the second stage occurs during dry summer periods, when the groundwater store disconnects into separate subcatchments. This causes NO^―₃ concentration peaks to be more delayed during summer storm events compared with winter storm events. Regarding flow regimes, differences between high and low flow conditions and between increasing and stable/decreasing flow were not as pronounced a differences between seasons. In contrast to the estimation of NO^―₃ concentrations, discharge was a strong predictor (R²= 0\71) of the NO^―₃ flux within the tributaries of the Zwalm catchment. The NO^―₃ concentrations in the main stream increased with decreasing elevation, whereas the seasonal concentration patterns along the main channel were similar to those observed at the outlet. NO^―₃ concentrations varied considerably among catchments and showed a high variability over time, although in general, the variation in NO^―₃ concentration was higher between catchments than within catchments. The impact of land use is clearly reflected in the streamwater NO^―₃ concentrations, although NO^―₃ concentration patterns were also affected by topography and, to a lesser extent, by soil type. A gradual increase in NO^―₃ concentrations at the outlet of the Zwalm catchment could be observed throughout the 1991 – 1998 study period, providing evidence for the general trends of increase in Flanders, which are attributed to the intensification of agricultural activities. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessing temperature‐based PET equations under a changing climate in temperate,deciduous forests

Despite the availability of numerous approaches to estimate potential evapotranspiration (PET), temperature‐based PET equations such as the Hamon equation and Thornthwaite equation are still used to predict changes in hydrology in a changing climate as temperature is one of the primary reported outputs from general circulation models. To isolate the actual dependence of PET on temperature, we analysed meteorological and energy balance measurements from five AmeriFlux deciduous forest sites in the eastern United States during periods with minimal soil moisture control on transpiration. For all five sites, when PET measurements with similar net radiation are grouped, temperature does not correlate to PET within each group. Conversely when PET measurements with similar temperature are grouped, net radiation strongly correlates to PET within each group. In terms of assessing standard PET models, when dormant and growing season PET are separated, we found that the Priestley–Taylor equation (a model primarily dependent on net radiation) consistently explained more of the variation in PET than temperature‐based methods such as the Hamon equation (median R² of 0·88 vs 0·66). We illustrate that the moderate ability of temperature‐based equations to predict PET arises from the correlation between temperature and net radiation when the meteorological observations are averaged over at least several days. However, we suggest that because temperature is not the fundamental driver of PET and because the relationship between temperature and net radiation underlying temperature‐based equations will shift with climate change, temperature‐based equations in their current state will likely exaggerate PET in a changing climate. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of possible future climate change on evaporation losses from four contrasting UK water catchment areas

Evaporation losses from four water catchment areas under different land uses and climatic conditions were calculated using formulations developed from small plot studies. These formulations, dependent on rainfall inputs, potential evaporation and air temperature, were extrapolated to the catchment scale using land classifications based on analysing remotely sensed imagery. The approach adopted was verified by comparing the estimated annual evaporation losses with catchment water use, given by the difference between rainfall inputs and stream flow outputs, allowing for changes in soil moisture. This procedure was repeated using modified values of rainfall, potential evaporation and air temperature, as given by a climate change scenario. The computed evaporation losses were used in annual water balances to calculate stream flow losses under the climate change scenario. It was found that, in general, stream flow from areas receiving high rainfall would increase as a result of climate change. For low rainfall areas, a decrease in stream flow was predicted. The largest actual changes in stream flow were predicted to occur during the winter months, although the largest percentage changes will occur during the summer months. The implications of these changes on potable water supply are discussed. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of mid‐twenty‐first century climate and land cover change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin,Washington

The distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to study the potential impacts of projected future land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, in the mid‐twenty‐first century. A 60‐year climate model output, archived for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was statistically downscaled and used as input to DHSVM. From the DHSVM output, we extracted multi‐decadal averages of seasonal streamflow, annual maximum flow, snow water equivalent (SWE), and evapotranspiration centred around 2030 and 2050. Future land cover was represented by a 2027 projection, which was extended to 2050, and DHSVM was run (with current climate) for these future land cover projections. In general, the climate change signal alone on sub‐basin streamflow was evidenced primarily through changes in the timing of winter and spring runoff, and slight increases in the annual runoff. Runoff changes in the uplands were attributable both to climate (increased winter precipitation, less snow) and land cover change (mostly reduced vegetation maturity). The most climatically sensitive parts of the uplands were in areas where the current winter precipitation is in the rain–snow transition zone. Changes in land cover were generally more important than climate change in the lowlands, where a substantial change to more urbanized land use and increased runoff was predicted. Both the annual total and seasonal distribution of freshwater flux to Puget Sound are more sensitive to climate change impacts than to land cover change, primarily because most of the runoff originates in the uplands. Both climate and land cover change slightly increase the annual freshwater flux to Puget Sound. Changes in the seasonal distribution of freshwater flux are mostly related to climate change, and consist of double‐digit increases in winter flows and decreases in summer and fall flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling the effects of land use and climate changes on hydrology in the Ursern Valley,Switzerland

While many studies have been conducted in mountainous catchments to examine the impact of climate change on hydrology, the interactions between climate changes and land use components have largely unknown impacts on hydrology in alpine regions. They need to be given special attention in order to devise possible strategies concerning general development in these regions. Thus, the main aim was to examine the impact of land use (i.e. bushland expansion) and climate changes (i.e. increase of temperature) on hydrology by model simulations. For this purpose, the physically based WaSiM‐ETH model was applied to the catchment of Ursern Valley in the central Alps (191 km²) over the period of 1983?2005. Modelling results showed that the reduction of the mean monthly discharge during the summer period is due primarily to the retreat of snow discharge in time and secondarily to the reduction in the glacier surface area together with its retreat in time, rather than the increase in the evapotranspiration due to the expansion of the “green alder” on the expense of grassland. The significant decrease in summer discharge during July, August and September shows a change in the regime from b‐glacio‐nival to nivo‐glacial. These changes are confirmed by the modeling results that attest to a temporal shift in snowmelt and glacier discharge towards earlier in the year: March, April and May for snowmelt and May and June for glacier discharge. It is expected that the yearly total discharge due to the land use changes will be reduced by 0.6% in the near future, whereas, it will be reduced by about 5% if climate change is also taken into account. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of forest cover change on catchment evapotranspiration variation in China

Several large-scale revegetation programs in China have resulted in significant changes in forest cover (ΔF) during the past three decades. As forests have important effects on catchment hydrology, evaluating the effects of ΔF on hydrology is essential. Using data from 44 catchments across China, this study derived a rational analytical equation to link changes in actual evapotranspiration (ΔET) with those in F within the Budyko framework, and further quantified the effects of ΔF on ET variation during 1976–2015. The elasticity of ET to ΔF was found to be the greatest in the dry catchments in northwest China, followed by the humid catchments in south China, and was the smallest in the subhumid and semiarid catchments in north China. F averaged across all the catchments has increased, and has further led to the increase in ET. The F-ET relationship has become more prominent in the recent decade (2006–2015), with 68.0% of the catchments showing an average increase in F of 4.5% and a resultant average increase in ET of 8.2% compared with the baseline period (1976–1985). These results are helpful for quantitative assessment of hydrological responses to afforestation, especially in water-limited regions.     

The effect of climate and land use change on flow duration in the Maryland Piedmont region

This paper describes the use of a continuous streamflow model to examine the effects of climate and land use change on flow duration in six urbanizing watersheds in the Maryland Piedmont region. The hydrologic model is coupled with an optimization routine to achieve an agreement between observed and simulated streamflow. Future predictions are made for three scenarios: future climate change, land use change, and jointly varying climate and land use. Future climate is modelled using precipitation and temperature predictions for the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) and Hadley climate models. Results show that a significant increase in temperature under the CCC climate predictions produces a decreasing trend in low flows. A significant increasing trend in precipitation under the Hadley climate predictions produces an increasing trend in peak flows. Land use change by itself, as simulated by an additional 10% increase in imperviousness (from 20·5 to 30·5%), produces no significant changes in the simulated flow durations. However, coupling the effects of land use change with climate change leads to more significant decreasing trends in low flows under the CCC climate predictions and more significant increasing trends in peak flows under Hadley climate predictions than when climate change alone is employed. These findings indicate that combined land use and climate change can result in more significant hydrologic change than either driver acting alone. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Land use change effects on catchment streamflow response in a humid tropical montane cloud forest region,central Veracruz,Mexico

Tropical montane cloud forests (TMCF) are recognized for their capacity to maintain high dry-season baseflow and a host of other ecosystem services. Substantial areas of TMCF have been converted to pasture and crops such as coffee, while in other areas TCMF are recovering. However, little is known about the effects of this complex dynamic on catchment hydrology. We investigated the effect of land use on rainfall-runoff response in five neighbouring headwater micro-catchments in central Veracruz, Mexico, dominated by either mature TMCF (MF), young (20 year-old) and intermediate (40 year-old) naturally regenerating TMCF (YF and IF, respectively), shaded coffee (SC), and an intensively grazed pasture (IP). We used a 4-year record of high-resolution rainfall and streamflow (10 min) data collected from 2015 to 2019. These data were analysed via comparison of hydrologic metrics that summarize streamflow responses at various time scales and magnitudes. Results showed no statistical difference in the regulation capacity of high flows in the micro-catchment with 20 years of natural regeneration, compared to the MF. In terms of baseflow sustenance, our results support the hypothesis that MF and IF better promote this hydrologic service than the other land uses. SC exhibited a high capacity to modulate peak flows comparable to that of MF, and an intermediate capacity to sustain baseflow, suggesting that the integrated functioning of this micro-catchment was largely preserved. Finally, 40 years of intense pasture management was found to have degraded the soil hydraulic properties of IP; mainly, reducing its infiltration capacity, causing a fivefold greater peak flow response and a lower baseflow compared to MF.     

Influence of land evapotranspiration on climate variations

A coupled numerical model of the global atmosphere with a qualified biosphere (GOALS/LASG) has been used to assess the nature of the physical mechanisms for land-atmosphere interactions, and the impacts of the Asian/North American land-surface evapotranspiration on the regional and global climate. This sensitivity study suggests that the simulated climate would be relatively sensitive to land surface evapotranspiration, especially over the Asian regions. The removal of evapotranspiration in Asia would create a warmer and drier climate to a certain degree. Furthermore, the surface evapotranspiration anomalies would make a substantial contribution to the formation and variation of subtropical anticyclones through the changes in monsoon precipitation and the β -effect, but also make a large contribution to the variations of the atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere and even the globe. Therefore, besides the traditional perception that we have generally emphasized on the influence of subtropical anticyclones activities on the boreal summer precipitation over the regions of eastern China, the surface evapotranspiration anomalies, however, also have substantial impacts on the subtropical anticyclones through the changes in monsoon precipitation. For this reason, the variation in the internal heating sources of the atmosphere caused by the land surface evapotranspiration and the vapor phase change during the boreal summer is an important external factor forcing the weather and climate.     

Hydrological response to future land-use change and climate change in a tropical catchment

Hydrological response to expected future changes in land use and climate in the Samin catchment (278 km²) in Java, Indonesia, was simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. We analysed changes between the baseline period 1983–2005 and the future period 2030–2050 under both land-use change and climate change. We used the outputs of a bias-corrected regional climate model and six global climate models to include climate model uncertainty. The results show that land-use change and climate change individually will cause changes in the water balance components, but that more pronounced changes are expected if the drivers are combined, in particular for changes in annual streamflow and surface runoff. The findings of this study will be useful for water resource managers to mitigate future risks associated with land-use and climate changes in the study catchment.     

Hydrological effects of climate change,groundwater withdrawal,and land use in a small Korean watershed

The effects of variability in climate and watershed (groundwater withdrawal and land use) on dry‐weather streamflows were investigated using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). The equation to predict the total runoff (TR) using climate data was derived from simulation results for 30 years by multiple regression analysis. These may be used to estimate effects of various climate variations (precipitation during the dry period, precipitation during the previous wet period, solar radiation, and maximum temperature). For example, if daily average maximum temperature increases by 3 °C, TR during the dry period will decrease by 27·9%. Similarly, groundwater withdrawals strongly affect streamflow during the dry period. However, land use changes (increasing urbanization) within the forested watershed do not appear to significantly affect TR during the dry period. Finally, a combined equation was derived that describes the relationships between the TR during the dry period and the climate, groundwater withdrawal and urban area proportion in a small monsoon watershed. This equation will be effective to predict the water availability during the dry periods in the future since it is closely related to changes of temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, urban area ratio, and groundwater withdrawal quantity. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.