中国的水库诱发地震

本文对中国13座水库诱发地震的分布、地质构造背景和诱发地震类型进行了分析讨论。文章指出,中国的水库地震主要分布于少震区和弱震区,这些地区处于低应变状态,水库蓄水较易于改变其应力平衡状态。中国的震例还表明,水库诱发地震的形成受区域地震活动水平的影响远远逊于库区的地质构造和水文地质条件的控制。诱发地震的水库可以成为窥测区域地震活动的“窗口”,可以根据大区域地震活动图象对水库诱发地震的衰减过程作出某种判断。最后,本文提出,水库诱发地震宜划分为“震群型’。和“前震—主震—余震型”两类,它们的特征和形成机制有所不同。     

玄武岩中发生水库诱发地震问题初析

玄武岩中发生水库诱发地震问题初析胡平，陈献程（国家地震局地质研究所北京１０００２９）１引言水库诱发地震是人类兴建水利水电工程后产生的地展现象。它所达到的最高烈度往往远超过相应工程场地的地震基本烈度，因而对工程及库区居民安全造成严重的灾害（如中国新丰江     

对龙羊峡水库发生诱发地震可能性的探讨

本文用龙羊峡水电站的水压致裂应力测量结果分析了该水库发生诱发地震的可能性。结果表明,该水库库区浅层的应力特点为:S_H>Sh>Sv,具备发生诱发地震的应力条件,但浅部和深部的应力状态可能不同。这给由浅部应力测值推测可能发生的诱发地震的震级的上限带来困难。     

按新的水库诱发地震分类探讨长江三峡水库诱发地震的可能性

提出了一种新的水库诱发地震分类方法，将水库地震分为断裂活动型、崩滑塌陷型、膨胀破裂型和岩溶气爆型四大类共十个亚类。指出评价水库诱发地震的危险性实际上主要是评估诱发断裂活动型水库强震的可能性。在分析了长江三峡水库区水库诱发强震的地质条件之后，按照上述观点着重分析了水库诱发断裂活动型强震的可能性。得出的基本结论是：对整个长江三峡水库区而言，水库诱发地震的最大震级不会超过５．５级；倘若仅就库首区而论，水     

国内外水库诱发地震目录

国内外水库诱发地震目录杨清源，胡毓良，陈献程，陈凌岳（国家地震局地质研究所，北京１０００２９）已知目前世界上发生水库诱发地震的震例有１０９例。其中Ｍｓ＞６．０有４例，Ｍｓ≥５．０有１９例，Ｍｓ４．０～４．９有２５例，Ｍｓ３．０～３．９有２５例，Ｍｓ     

四川省铜街子电站水库诱发地震

本文详细介绍了铜街子电站水库诱发地震的活动特征，结合地质构造对诱发成因进行了初步探讨，并就该区地震的发展趋势作了估计。这是四川省首次获得该水库蓄水期库区的微震观测资料。     

大岗山水库地震台网水库诱发地震常规定位方法对比

采用MSDP软件中的单纯型、HypoSat和LocSat定位方法,从震源深度及残差等方面,对比分析2014年大岗山水库区域内123次M_L≥2.0地震的定位结果,选择适用于水库诱发地震的最佳定位方法,并以库区17次定点爆破事件为例,验证最佳定位方法的可靠性。结果认为,LocSat定位方法更适用于水库诱发地震。     

建设凉山州水库地震监测综合台网为凉山州水电资源全面开发服好务

水电资源是四川省凉山州的第一资源,可开发量达5816万kW。但凉山州也属地震高发区,因此要重视水库的安全运行工作,建议建立一个全州性的水库地震监测综合台网。     

水库诱发地震震级预测的统计研究

于收集到的全球102例水库及已发地震的资料,应用隶属函数方法综合分析了水库基本属性、震中区岩性、库坝区基本烈度和震中区断层类型等与水库诱发地震之间的关系,从统计学角度给出了水库诱发最大地震震级的判定方法．通过回溯检验和费舍尔判别检验给出了预测震级的相对误差和正确识别率,总体预测效果较好,可为将来水库的设防和最大地震震级的判定提供统计学上的依据．      

Cost-effective network design for groundwater flow monitoring

The extensive use of groundwater resources has increased the need for developing cost-effective monitoring networks to provide an indication of the degree to which the subsurface environment has been affected by human activities. This study presents a cost-effective approach to the design of groundwater flow monitoring networks. The groundwater network design is formulated with two problem formats: maximizing the statistical monitoring power for specified budget constraint and minimizing monitoring cost for statistical power requirement. The statistical monitoring power constraint is introduced with an information reliability threshold value. A branch and bound technique is employed to select the optimal solution from a discrete set of possible network alternatives. The method is tested to the design of groundwater flow monitoring problem in the Pomona County, California.     

Evaluation of hydrologic data obtained from a local groundwater monitoring network in a metropolitan city,Korea

In the late 1980s, dramatic increases in water use caused over‐exploitation of groundwater resources and deterioration of water quality in Seoul metropolitan city. To monitor changes in quantity of groundwater resources and their quality, the metropolitan government established a local groundwater monitoring network in 1997 consisting of 119 monitoring wells. Groundwater resources in the urban area were affected by various human activities, including underground construction such as subways, pumping for public or private water use, leaky sewer systems and pavements. The variation patterns of the groundwater levels were mainly classified into four types, reflecting natural recharge due to rainfall events during the wet season, artificial recharge from leaky sewer or water supply systems, and heavy groundwater pumping for drainage or flood control purposes at underground construction sites. Significantly decreasing trends of groundwater levels in the suburbs of Seoul indicate groundwater use for various agricultural activities. Subway construction lowered the water level by an average of 25 m. Electrical conductivity values showed a wide range, from 100 to 1800 µS/cm (mean 470 µS/cm). Groundwater temperature generally showed a stable pattern, except for some sensitive increases at relatively shallow monitoring wells. Detailed analysis of the monitored groundwater data would provide some helpful implications for optimal and efficient management of groundwater resources in this metropolitan city. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying uncertainty of the semivariogram of transmissivity of an existing groundwater monitoring network

A method is presented for quantifying the uncertainty of the semivariogram of transmissivity and determining the required number of measurements. In this method, the estimated semivariogram and its 95% confidence limits are first determined from a finite number of measurements. The uncertainty of the estimated semivariogram is then quantified using the random field simulation technique. For a given value of the quantitative index of uncertainty, the required number of measured data can finally be obtained. Actual transmissivity data of an existing groundwater monitoring network are used in the application of the proposed method. The required numbers of measurements of transmissivity for four different values of the quantitative index of uncertainty are provided, from which reliable semivariograms of the transmissivity can be obtained. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

我国地震地下流体观测台网调整与优化方案探讨

本文首先简要介绍了我国地震地下流体观测台网的现状,然后针对其存在的主要问题提出了调整与优化的建议: ① 调整布局,重点加强我国中西部地区(105°E以西)的监测; ② 扩大规模,观测井(泉)数要达到1000个左右; ③ 全面提高观测井质量,淘汰不符合规范要求的观测井(泉),改造不完全符合规范要求的观测井,新建一批完全符合规范的观测井; ④ 优化观测项目的组合,大力发展观测井(泉)水流量观测,强化以H₂、 He、 CO₂等为主测项的断层带土壤气观测,建立断层带土壤气观测网; ⑤ 优化现有的观测模式,开展平面上的台阵式观测与垂向的多层次立体化观测; ⑥ 完善与提升现有数字化观测技术水平.      

流域化数字水库地震台网监测系统

雅砻江数字水库地震台网技术系统按照流域化建设和运行模式,以科学合理的测震台站布设、多样化及时通信组网方式和现代化台网中心,构成一个台站流域化布局、地震数据传输通信方式多元化、监测成果实时共享的水库地震监测系统,为工程安全监测和区域防震减灾及相关研究工作提供准确详实的基础资料,并为同类工程及大规模水库地震台网的设计和建设提供参考依据。     

二滩水电站水库诱发地震预测

二滩水电站是国内仅次于长江三峡水电站正在建设中的最大水电站。二滩水电站水库可能诱发ＭＳ＝５．０±０．５的水库地震;在二滩水电站水库区域里的４条主要断层中的３条断层诱发水库地震的条件概率是相当高的;在各主要断层中诱发水库地震的概率排序为树河－普威断层,李明久断层,西番田断层,头滩断层     

关于用密集钻孔应变台网监测强震前兆的若干问题

提出了地震前兆研究是地震预测研究的基础,其研究的对象是个案. 地震前兆研究受到的最大限制,是对个案的观测严重不足. 龙门山断裂带西南段仍然存在发生强震的危险性,应该不失时机地在那里建立密集的钻孔应变观测网. 四分量钻孔应变仪是我国发明的、 已经可以与地震仪和GPS相提并论的观测仪器. 对地震前兆研究而言,钻孔应变观测在理论和实践两方面都具有优越性. 本文认为: 钻孔应变观测点应该建在应力集中的构造部位; 应该在钻孔选点和仪器安装两方面采取措施以保证观测点建设的成功; 四分量钻孔应变观测最重要的是数据自洽; 钻孔应变观测不必追求很深; 观测点建设不必进行绝对应力测量.