云南地区地震总体活动水平起伏规律研究

系统分析了本世纪以来云南地区逐年最大地震强度序列的演变,揭示出了地震活动强弱循环各阶段的基本变化规律,并对其机理进行了探讨。指出地震活动的分期性和强弱交替性是云南地区地震活动的基本特征之一。在此基础上,运用混沌理论,建立了云南地区年最大地震强度的多维相空间相似统计预报模式,确定出构成最佳预报模式的最佳参变量。最后应用本模式对1987~1997年云南地区逐年最大地震强度进行了外推定量预测和定性预报准确率检验,结果表明,当外推时间L=1年和4年时,定量预测平均绝对误差$\Delta\bar{M}$分别为0.53和0.46;有无M≥6强震的辨识率ƒ=0.90,高于年自然发生率0.50。该预报模式输出稳定,可成为判断云南地区地震形势的重要依据。     

华北地震活动中短期异常图像研究

系统研究了多种地震活动性方法后认为, 1970年以来华北地区发生的M_S≥5.8中强震前, 约83%具有3级或4级地震异常条带、 孕震空区及信号震出现。 震前有信号震的比例占92%, 83%的信号震距主震150 km以内, 距主震发生时间小于1年的占67%。 条带时间形成进程在2年内的约占90%, 震前条带形成后到主震发生83%在5个月内。 空区形成进程在1年半内的占83%, 空区形成后到主震发生91%在50天内, 为有意义的地震活动图像短期异常特征。 文中还探讨了异常条带图像的定量判别指标及其与未来强震的关联。     

河北平原地震带的现今活动性分析

根据近41年的现代地震资料,利用地震活动性参数组合、b值空间分布、断裂带分段,并结合历史强震构造背景的综合分析方法,分析河北平原地震带各分段现今地震活动习性和地震危险性.研究结果表明：河北平原地震带存在7个具有不同现今活动习性的分段,其中,唐山—迁安段和东明—阳谷段处于低b值、高应力状态,属于大震后晚期余震活跃或断层震后调整运动结果;昌平—宝坻、天津—肃宁段、新河段、邯郸—磁县及汤西段断层面现今活动习性均处于相对低应力下的频繁或稀疏小震滑动.因此,河北平原地震带未来短期内发生强震的可能性较小.     

Study on the relationship between geothermal exploitation and seismic activity in Xi''''an region

IntroductionGeothermal energy is a new and clear energy resource. It is very useful in heating and generating electricity and medical treating. The Assembly of International Environmental Protection in 1992 predicted that the usage and development of geothermal energy would exceed the traditional energy such as oil and coal, and its developmental prospect will be very bright.There are great geothermal resources in Weihe basin. The average value of heat flow in Weihe basin is 7.88(10(2 W/m2…     

双地震带的影响因素探讨

讨论了全球39个俯冲带内的双地震带层间距、应力类型与俯冲参数的相互关系,这些俯冲参数包括动力学参数(板块年龄、热参数、板片拉力)、运动学参数(俯冲板块速度、上覆板块运动速度、海沟迁移速度、弧后形变特征)、几何形态参数(浅俯冲角、深俯冲角、俯冲深度、长度)及上覆板块性质等. 结果表明:(1)I型双地震带易形成于年龄较古老(>60 Ma)的俯冲板块,其层间距主要与动力学参数有关;(2)II型双地震带出现在较年轻(<60 Ma)的板块,其层间距及应力状态更容易受局部应力场的影响;(3)当热参数大于5000 km时仅能形成I型双地震带,而当热参数小于5000 km时,两类双地震带都能形成;(4)上覆板块的性质似乎决定着双地震带层间距的上下限,其中大陆型上覆板块所对应的双地震带层间距小于20 km;而海洋型对应DSZ层间距则大于15 km. 限于现有的观测条件,本文基于有限样本的统计结果仍需要进一步验证.     

Research on the relationship between Earth＇s variable rotation and global seismic activity

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基于数据挖掘的甘肃武都殿沟泉氡异常与地震活动统计关系研究

殿沟泉气氡浓度在汶川地震后经常出现成簇高频震荡异常.应用数据挖掘方法,采用正规化、聚类、特征值计算等方法对氡观测数据和地震目录进行预处理,提取气氡异常、震级、震源深度和地震分区等参数,在此基础上采用贝叶斯网络模型开展殿沟泉氡异常与周边区域地震活动统计关系研究.利用聚类开展的地震分区结果显示与构造分区基本吻合,反映出不同...     

南北地震带地区地震烈度衰减关系研究

收集了我国南北地震带地区1970年~2012年的85次地震事件的烈度等震线资料,建立了震中烈度与震级之间的经验关系,利用长轴和短轴椭圆模型拟合得到了该地区的地震烈度衰减关系。同时还搜集整理了近年来基于我国各地区的地震资料,研究得到的地震烈度衰减关系,并将其中与南北地震带存在地域重合的研究结果与本文结果进行对比分析。该研究结果能够较好地反映南北地震带地区的地震烈度衰减规律,对该地区的地震灾害快速评估具有一定的参考意义。     

基于模拟退火法的青藏高原东缘噪声层析成像研究

青藏高原是全球造山带研究的热点地区,此前在青藏高原开展的三维层析成像研究大多基于线性反演方法.本文利用青藏高原东缘及邻区布设的127个宽频带固定地震台站记录的连续波形资料,首先通过噪声互相关提取了3~50 s Rayleigh波群速度频散曲线并反演得到群速度分布,再进一步采用模拟退火法反演了研究区的三维S波速度及泊松比结构.结果显示：（1）松潘—甘孜地块的中下地壳低速异常主要分布在龙日坝断裂带、鲜水河断裂带、龙门山断裂带和岷山隆起所围限的区域,而该区域的中下地壳仅具有中等泊松比值,推测松潘—甘孜地块中下地壳的低速物质可能是青藏高原与扬子块体长期相互作用产生的塑性低速滑脱层;上地壳脆性物质在板块作用下沿中地壳低速滑脱层顶界面发生逆冲增厚,造成龙门山的持续抬升和地形起伏,并在构造边界带形成了应变积累和应力集中;而龙门山断裂带的上地壳低速软弱物质为地壳发生破裂提供了有利条件,从而在某种程度上促进了汶川地震和芦山地震的发生.（2）岷山隆起一带中下地壳的高泊松比异常呈"凸起"形态,结合前人研究发现的较高热流和岩石快速抬升现象,推测岷山隆起一带可能存在岩石圈的拆沉,导致地幔热物质上涌而形成下地壳高泊松比物质.（3）川滇地块的北部和南部具有不同的S波速度和泊松比分布特征.30 km深度下川滇地块北部具有明显的低速异常,而该深度下并不具有明显的高泊松比值特征;此外剖面成像结果也显示川滇地块内的低速异常与高泊松比的分布不一致,因此川滇地块的研究结果不支持下地壳流模型.综合其他地震学证据,本文认为川滇地块的变形模式为上地壳纯剪切增厚,块体变形主要受块体内部的走滑断裂及活动边界断裂控制.     

中国仪器地震烈度增量与场地放大系数的关系研究

相对于基岩的中国仪器地震烈度增量可以作为地震小区划的一个重要指标,也可以作为研究区建(构)筑物差异抗震设防的可靠依据。使用2021年2月13日福岛地震期间日本KiK-net台网120个台阵记录的地震动数据,根据18种地震动参数的定义和《中国地震烈度表》中中国仪器地震烈度的算法,分别计算了相对基岩的、土层上的中国仪器地震烈度增量和这些地震动参数的放大系数,然后用一元、二元回归分析方法分别建立它们之间的经验关系式。结果表明：(1)一元回归分析中,中国仪器地震烈度增量与持时超过0.3秒的加速度阈值(a_0.3)的放大系数的相关系数最高且为0.918,与峰值地面加速度(PGA)、水平向最大谱烈度(SI)的放大系数的相关系数均在0.870以上;(2)从中国规范的II类场地到III类场地(或美国规范的C类场地到E类场地),中国仪器地震烈度增量的均值逐渐增大;(3)相比于一元回归结果,二元回归分析中的中国仪器地震烈度增量与18种地震动参数放大系数两两组合的相关系数普遍有所提高,其中中国仪器地震烈度增量与PGA和SI放大系数组合的相关系数最高且为0.9261。     

Study on the relationship between geothermal exploitation and seismic activity in Xi＇an region

Based on the analysis of the induced earthquakes in China and abroad, we get some ideas about earthquakes induced by pumping water out of a well or injecting water into a well. The induced earthquakes usually occur near the well, and they are generally small earthquakes. The earthquake sources are shallow, and they belong to the main shock-after shock type of earthquake or the swarm-type of earthquake. The magnitude and the quantity of the induced earthquakes obviously depend on the pressure and the quantity of water pumped or injected. These earthquakes happen as soon as pumping or injecting occurrence, or after ten or twenty days, they may occur at the time of injecting mud or injecting high pressure water when a well is being drilled, or at the time when the ground water is being normally exploited. A large quantity of hot water has been exploited since 1990 in Xi＇an, and the quantity of water exploited has been increasing year by year, as a result the groundwater level has been dropping with the water pumped out and the water level is high in summer and low in winter. The earthquakes in Xi＇an region belong to the solitary-type and they spread outside Xi＇an city where the wells are concentrated but no earthquake happens.The seismic frequency and the energy released have no relation with the quantity of water exploitation or the water level in the well. It is considered that geothermal exploitation does not induce earthquakes in and around Xi＇an because of its specially geological condition.     

Study on the relationship between geothermal exploitation and seismic activity in Xi’an region

Based on the analysis of the induced earthquakes in China and abroad, we get some ideas about earthquakes induced by pumping water out of a well or injecting water into a well. The induced earthquakes usually occur near the well, and they are generally small earthquakes. The earthquake sources are shallow, and they belong to the main shock-after shock type of earthquake or the swarm-type of earthquake. The magnitude and the quantity of the induced earthquakes obviously depend on the pressure and the quantity of water pumped or injected. These earthquakes happen as soon as pumping or injecting occurrence, or after ten or twenty days, they may occur at the time of injecting mud or injecting high pressure water when a well is being drilled, or at the time when the ground water is being normally exploited. A large quantity of hot water has been exploited since 1990 in Xi’an, and the quantity of water exploited has been increasing year by year, as a result the groundwater level has been dropping with the water pumped out and the water level is high in summer and low in winter. The earthquakes in Xi’an region belong to the solitary-type and they spread outside Xi’an city where the wells are concentrated but no earthquake happens. The seismic frequency and the energy released have no relation with the quantity of water exploitation or the water level in the well. It is considered that geothermal exploitation does not induce earthquakes in and around Xi’an because of its specially geological condition. Foundation item: Project sponsored by the Landslide Office of Shaanxi Province and Society of Disaster Reduction of Shaanxi Province.     

核爆地震模式识别中的特征相空间研究

从核爆地震模式识别中的最少不相关特征量确定、训练样本的选择出发,介绍了特征空间与相空间等价问题的由来,并通过数值实验验证了特征空间与相空间等价的有效性,确定了特征选择中不相关特征量的下限,而且特征相空间分析方法具有很好的噪声鲁棒性,对于分析实际的模式识别问题极具优势.最后,本文提出了进一步研究的思路和设想.     

Long-term seismicity in regions of present day low seismic activity: the example of western Europe

In western Europe, the knowledge of long-term seismicity is based on reliable historical seismicity and covers a time period of less than 700 years. Despite the fact that the seismic activity is considered as low in the region extending from the Lower Rhine Embayment to England, historical information collected recently suggests the occurrence of three earthquakes with magnitude around 6.0 or greater. These events are a source of information for the engineer or the scientist involved in mitigation against large earthquakes. We provide information relevant to this aspect for the Belgian earthquake of September 18, 1692. The severity of the damage described in original sources indicates that its epicentral intensity could be IX (EMS-98 scale) and that the area with intensity VII and greater than VII has at least a mean radius of 45 km. Following relationships between average macroseismic radii and magnitude for earthquakes in stable continental regions, its magnitude M_s is estimated as between 6.0 and 6.5. To extend in time our knowledge of the seismic activity, we conducted paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben to address the question of the possible occurrence of large earthquakes with coseismic surface ruptures. Our study along the Feldbiss fault (the western border of the graben) demonstrates its recent activity and provides numerous lines of evidence of Holocene and Late Pleistocene large earthquakes. It suggests that along the 10 km long Bree fault scarp, the return period for earthquakes with magnitude from 6.2 to 6.7 ranges from 10,000 to 20,000 years during the last 50,000 years. Considering as possible the occurrence of similar earthquakes along all the Quaternary faults in the Lower Rhine Embayment, a large earthquake could occur there each 500–1000 years. These results are important in two ways. (i) The evidence that large earthquakes occur in western Europe in the very recent past which is not only attested by historical sources, but also suggested by paleoseismic investigations in the Roer Graben. (ii) The existence of a scientific basis to better evaluate the long-term seismicity in this part of Europe (maximal magnitude and return period) in the framework of seismic hazard assessment.     

结构设计地震作用效应影响因素及规律分析

基于现行《建筑抗震设计规范》（GB50011－2001），本文分析了现行抗震设计中影响结构设计地震作用效应的主要因素，以规则平面框架对例对新旧规范影响结构设计地震作用效应的因素进行了对比，给出了其间的重要变化和基本规律。     

Research on the relationship between Earth’s variable rotation and global seismic activity

Based on the time series of observational variations of the length of day (LOD) and seismic data in the world, the relations of the decadal fluctuation and seasonal variation in the Earth’s rotation with global seismic activity are studied in this paper. The results suggest that there are overall correlations on temporal scale and regional discrepancy on spatial scale between global seismic activity and the Earth’s variable rotation, especially the seismic activity in the Eurasian seismic zone (not including southeast Asia) and the Lower California-Eastern Alaska seismic zone correlating well with the Earth’s variable rotation. According to the relations mentioned above, the observational data of the Earth’s rotation might provide a referential basis for monitoring global seismic activity.     

利用地震活动性参数b值判断张渤地震带中西段地震危险性

利用2000年7月-2017年6月地震资料,计算张渤地震构造带中西段地震活动性参数b值、a值和a/b值。基于沿断裂带的b值空间分布,结合多地震活动参数值组合、历史强震背景分布特点,分析张渤地震构造带中西段不同段落的强震危险性。研究结果表明,河北涿鹿及山西大同一带具有低b值、低a值、较高a/b值的参数组合,反映该区域具有高应力积累,未来具有强震发生的危险。     

基于Tesseral的盲源地震响应恢复影响因素研究

将盲源地震波记录中有用的反射波信号恢复并降低噪声影响,历来是地震勘探数据处理环节中的一个难题.本文利用tesseral软件,通过建立一个典型凹陷模型,对影响盲源地震响应恢复的六个主要因素:自由表面、被动源的震源分布、被动源数目、被动源子波信号的持续时间、震源子波类型和随机噪声的响应特征分别进行研究,研究结果表明,各影响因素对盲源地震响应恢复质量均有一定程度的影响,其中被动源的震源分布情况、能捕获的被动源数目和被动源持续时间这三个因素直接决定了被动源地震响应的恢复质量,能否接收到来自自由地表的多次波,决定了地震响应恢复的可能性.这对实际地震勘探数据处理具有一定的指导意义.     

南北地震带地震活动强度变化特征及其神经网络模型

南北地震带是中国大陆的一条主要活动地震带, 20世纪以来有很多大地震集中发生在这条地震带上。为了进一步探讨南北地震带地震活动强度变化的规律并对其进行中期预测,在研究了南北地震带逐年最大地震强度演化特征及其机理的基础上,建立了南北地震带地震强度序列变化的一种模式,建模中采用了人工神经网络技术,并提出了一种简易实用的能够获得较隹预测效果的确定神经网络输入窗口大小的方法。结果表明: 南北地震带的地震活动具有强弱分期轮回的特征; 用人工神经网络建模的预测结果与实际资料的对比检验中误差较小,因而该模型可作为南北地震带地震活动强度变化的预测模型。