Potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain,Iran

It is important to predict how groundwater levels in an aquifer will respond to various climate change scenarios to effectively plan for how groundwater resources will be used in the future. Due to the overuse of groundwater resources and the multi-year drought in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain in Iran, some land subsidence and a drop in groundwater levels has taken place, and without active management, further degradation of the groundwater resource is possible under predicted future climate change scenarios in the country. To determine the potential impacts of climate change on groundwater levels in the region, the groundwater model GMS was coupled with the atmospheric circulation model HADCM3 using scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for the period 2016–2030. The results of the climate modelling suggest that the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will experience an increase in minimum temperature and maximum temperature of, respectively, between 0.03 and 0.47, and 0.32–0.45 °C for this time period. The results of the groundwater modelling suggest that water levels on the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will continue to decline over the forecast period with decreases of 34.51, 36.57 and 33.58 m being predicted, respectively, for climate scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. Consequently, groundwater resources in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain will urgently need active management to minimize the effects of ongoing water level decline and to prevent saltwater intrusion and desertification in the region.     

Hydrogeologic assessment of escalating groundwater exploitation in the Indus Basin, Pakistan

Groundwater development has contributed significantly to food security and reduction in poverty in Pakistan. Due to rapid population growth there has been a dramatic increase in the intensity of groundwater exploitation leading to declining water tables and deteriorating groundwater quality. In such prevailing conditions, the hydrogeological appraisal of escalating groundwater exploitation has become of paramount importance. Keeping this in view, a surface water–groundwater quantity and quality model was developed to assess future groundwater trends in the Rechna Doab (RD), a sub-catchment of the Indus River Basin. Scenario analysis shows that if dry conditions persist, there will be an overall decline in groundwater levels of around 10 m for the whole of RD during the next 25 years. The lower parts of RD with limited surface water supplies will undergo the highest decline in groundwater levels (10 to 20 m), which will make groundwater pumping very expensive for farmers. There is a high risk of groundwater salinization due to vertical upconing and lateral movement of highly saline groundwater into the fresh shallow aquifers in the upper parts of RD. If groundwater pumping is allowed to increase at the current rate, there will be an overall decline in groundwater salinity for the lower and middle parts of RD because of enhanced river leakage.     

Groundwater simulation using a numerical model under different water resources management scenarios in an arid region of China

Groundwater plays an important role in the economic development and ecological balance of the arid area of northwest China. Unfortunately, human activity, for example groundwater extraction for irrigation, have resulted in excessive falls in groundwater level, and aquifer overdraft in the oasis, disrupting the natural equilibrium of these systems. A groundwater numerical model for Minqin oasis, an arid area of northwest China, was developed using FEFLOW software to simulate regional groundwater changes under transient conditions. The vertical recharge and discharge (source/sink terms) of the groundwater models were determined from land-use data and irrigation systems for the different crops in the different sub-areas. The calibrated model was used to predict the change for the period from 2000 to 2020 under various water resources management scenarios. Simulated results showed that under current water resources management conditions groundwater levels at Minqin oasis are in a continuous drawdown trend and groundwater depth will be more than 30 m by 2020. Reducing the irrigation area is more effective than water-saving irrigation to reduce groundwater decline at Minqin oasis and the annual groundwater budget would be −0.978 × 10⁸ m³. In addition, water-diversion projects can also reduce the drawdown trend of groundwater at Minqin oasis, and the groundwater budget in the Huqu sub-area would be in zero equilibrium if the annual inflow into the oasis was enhanced to 2.51 × 10⁸ m³. Furthermore, integrative water resources management including water-diversion projects, water-saving irrigation, and reducing the irrigation area are the most effective measures for solving groundwater problems at Minqin oasis.     

Groundwater Flow Simulation and its Application in Groundwater Resource Evaluation in the North China Plain,China

The purpose of this study is to establish a 3D groundwater flow modelling for evaluating groundwater resources of the North China Plain.First,the North China Plain was divided into three aquifers vertically through a characterization of hydrogeological conditions.Groundwater model software GMS was used for modeling to divide the area of simulation into a regular network of 164 rows and 148 lines.This model was verified through fitting of the observed and the simulated groundwater flow fields at deep and shallow layers and comparison between the observed and simulated hydrographs at 64 typical observation wells.Furthermore,water budget analysis was also performed during the simulation period(2002-2003).Results of the established groundwater flow model showed that the average annual groundwater recharge of the North China Plain during 1991 to 2003 was 256.68×10~8 m~3/yr with safe yield of groundwater resources up to 213.49×10~8 m~3/yr,in which safe yield of shallow groundwater and that of deep groundwater was up to 191.65×10~8 m~3/yr and 22.64×10~8 m~3/yr respectively.Finally,this model was integrated with proposal for groundwater withdrawal in the study area after commencement of water supply by South-North Water Transfer Project,aiming to predict the changing trend of groundwater regime.As indicated by prediction results,South-North Water Transfer Project,which is favorable for effective control of expansion and intensification of existing depression cone,would play a positive role in alleviation of short supply of groundwater in the North China Plain as well as maintenance and protection of groundwater.     

华北平原东部水资源可持续利用

华北平原东部水资源短缺，深层地下水严重超采，生态环境恶化。为水资源的可持续利用．要发展井灌井排渠灌沟排，以开发利用当地浅层地下水包括微成水和成水为基础．以引调可利用的地表水补源。以调控地下水埋深在临界动态为棱心，以土壤及潜水的地层空间作为调节大气降水、土壤水、地下水、地表水的地下水库．最大限度圯犯时空分布不均的天然降雨转化为可持续利用的水资源。     

Effects of climate change on the groundwater system in the Grote-Nete catchment,Belgium

The effects of climate change on the groundwater systems in the Grote-Nete catchment, Belgium, covering an area of 525 km², is modeled using wet (greenhouse), cold or NATCC (North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Change) and dry climate scenarios. Low, central and high estimates of temperature changes are adopted for wet scenarios. Seasonal and annual water balance components including groundwater recharge are simulated using the WetSpass model, while mean annual groundwater elevations and discharge are simulated with a steady-state MODFLOW groundwater model. WetSpass results for the wet scenarios show that wet winters and drier summers are expected relative to the present situation. MODFLOW results for wet high scenario show groundwater levels increase by as much as 79 cm, which could affect the distribution and species richness of meadows. Results obtained for cold scenarios depict drier winters and wetter summers relative to the present. The dry scenarios predict dry conditions for the whole year. There is no recharge during the summer, which is mainly attributed to high evapotranspiration rates by forests and low precipitation. Average annual groundwater levels drop by 0.5 m, with maximum of 3.1 m on the eastern part of the Campine Plateau. This could endanger aquatic ecosystem, shrubs, and crop production.     

雄安新区地下水资源概况、特征及可开采潜力

地下水资源在中国社会经济发展中发挥重要作用,特别是在地表水资源相对匮乏的北方地区。掌握一个地区地下水资源状况、动态变化特征及可开采潜力,对该地区的供水安全保障至关重要。本文选择雄安新区,在近年来开展的区域水文地质调查、监测及综合研究等成果基础上,结合前人研究,对雄安新区区域水文地质条件、地下水动态变化特征等进行分析总结;以恢复地下水降落漏斗为地下水可持续开采利用方案的目标,从白洋淀流域平原区尺度,设置现状开采条件、河流补水、工农业节水及地下水禁(限)采等不同情景方案,采用地下水数值模拟技术,综合分析不同情景30年后的预测结果,提出白洋淀流域平原区地下水可持续开采利用方案;在流域地下水可持续开采利用方案基础上,分析雄安新区地下水可开采的最大资源量,进而评价雄安新区地下水可开采潜力。结果显示,雄安新区区域水文地质条件相对简单,浅层富水性中等,深层富水性较强;地下水位为多年下降状态,近年来,浅、深层地下水整体呈企稳或回升状态,局部地区仍有所下降;地下水质量总体良好,且较为稳定。根据评价结果,雄安新区地下水可开采潜力约为1.80×10~8m~3/a,其中,浅层地下水可开采潜力约为1.50×10~8m~3/a,深层地下水可开采潜力约为0.30×10~8m~3/a。     

Using environmental isotopes to evaluate the renewable capacity of a typical karst groundwater system in northern China

The karst groundwater in northern China is an important source of water supply. Its capacity for self-renewal is a key factor affecting its sustainable use. The Pingyi–Feixian karst aquifer in central and southern Shandong Province is a typical karst water source, contributing 54% to the total groundwater taken from the region. In this study, 25 groups of water samples were collected from the Pingyi–Feixian karst aquifer in November 2013. The compositions of isotopes of tritium (³H), carbon-13 (¹³C), and carbon-14 (¹⁴C) were measured. As indicated by the tritium values between 7.1 and 12.2 TU, the Pingyi–Feixian karst groundwater is primarily originated from both historical atmospheric precipitation and modern precipitation. The ¹⁴C ages corrected by δ¹³C were between 146 and 5403 years. Specifically, the shallow groundwater is younger than deep groundwater. Groundwater age tends to increase along the flow path. The ages of the groundwater in recharge area were between 146 and 1348 years, while the ages of deep groundwater in flowing area were generally between 2000 and 4000 years. The ages of the groundwater in discharge area with little anthropic exploitation were larger than 4500 years, whereas these with large amounts of exploitation were less than 1500 years. The shallower the groundwater, the stronger its capacity for renewal. The renewable capacity of karst groundwater in discharge area was significantly affected by anthropic exploitation. The karst groundwater in the areas with less exploitation showed the weakest capacity, whereas that in the area with intensive exploitation was much older and had a stronger renewable capacity.     

Groundwater level fluctuation in the Waimea Plains, New Zealand: changes in a coastal aquifer within the last 30 years

Data for the Waimea Plains, New Zealand indicate that the lower confined groundwater aquifer is hydraulically homogeneous and that shallow groundwater levels inland are affected mostly by anthropogenic processes, while those near the coast are affected more by sea level variation. Analysis of long-term data for New Zealand indicates that sea level has increased continuously, but trends are not spatially uniform. Results from non-parametric trend analysis show that rising trends for groundwater levels are predominant in the shallow aquifer both inland on the Waimea Plains and, for recent years, near the coast, while decreasing trends are evident in the underlying confined aquifer near the coast. Groundwater level change in the shallow aquifer appears to be more affected by climate change than the lower confined aquifer. Correlation analysis indicated that groundwater levels are more affected by rainfall during the rainy season than the dry season and more influenced by rainfall inland than near the coast. Groundwater level declines in the lower confined aquifer near the coast, which has its major recharge area inland in the catchment, may be substantially affected by groundwater abstraction in inland areas as well as sea level variation, but there are little evidences of seawater intrusion. Meanwhile, groundwater recharge over the catchment area has great influence on rising groundwater levels in the shallow aquifer and its recharge is estimated to be 417.8 mm/year using chloride concentrations of precipitation and groundwater.     

Identifying vulnerable areas of aquifer under future climate change (case study: Hamadan aquifer,West Iran)

Groundwater is the main source of water in arid and semi-arid regions, so it is very important to recognize vulnerable parts of aquifer under future climate change conditions. In this research, 16 climate models were evaluated based on weighting approach. HADCM3 and CGCM2.3.2a models were selected for temperature and precipitation prediction, respectively. LARS-WG was used for downscaling AOGCMs outputs. Results show that temperature increase by 1.4 °C and precipitation changes between +10 and ?6 % under B1 and A2 emission scenario, respectively. Runoff volumes will decrease by ?39 % under A2 emission scenario whereas runoff volume will increase by +12 % under B1 emission scenario. Simulation of groundwater head variation by MODFLOW software indicates higher groundwater depletion rate under A2 scenario compared to B1 scenario. Groundwater model outputs indicate that the most vulnerable part of the aquifer is located in the southwest region. Large number of extraction wells and low aquifer transmissivity are the reasons for high vulnerability of the region.     

太行山前倾斜平原区地下水位动态特征分析及其趋势预测--以河北省栾城县为例

随着太行山前社会经济的飞速发展 ,地下水的开采量大大增加 ,多年的连续超采 ,导致地下水位大幅度持续下降。本文以河北省栾城县为例 ,在研究区内水文地质条件以及对区内的地下水进行全面监测的基础上 ,对区内多年的地下水动态特征进行了综合分析研究 ,并在此基础上采用灰色系统理论对区内的浅层地下水位总体变化趋势进行了预测。研究表明 ,区内地下水开发利用程度较高 ,农业的季节性开采是影响地下水动态的主要因素 ,地下水位表现为典型的开采型动态 ,在现有地下水开采条件下 ,地下水位将以 1m a的速度下降。     

Impacts of sea-level rise and urbanization on groundwater availability and sustainability of coastal communities in semi-arid South Texas

The sea levels along the semi-arid South Texas coast are noted to have risen by 3–5 mm/year over the last five decades. Data from General Circulation Models (GCMs) indicate that this trend will continue in the 21st century with projected sea level rise in the order of 1.8–5.9 mm/year due to the melting of glaciers and thermal ocean expansion. Furthermore, the temperature in South Texas is projected to increase by as much as 4 °C by the end of the 21st century creating a greater stress on scarce water resources of the region. Increased groundwater use hinterland due to urbanization as well as rising sea levels due to climate change impact the freshwater-saltwater interface in coastal aquifers and threaten the sustainability of coastal communities that primarily rely on groundwater resources. The primary goal of this study was to develop an integrated decision support framework to assist land and water planners in coastal communities to assess the impacts of climate change and urbanization. More specifically, the developed system was used to address whether coastal side (primarily controlled by climate change) or landward side processes (controlled by both climate change and urbanization) had a greater control on the saltwater intrusion phenomenon. The decision support system integrates a sharp-interface model with information from GCMs and observed data and couples them to statistical and information-theoretic uncertainty analysis techniques. The developed decision support system is applied to study saltwater intrusion characteristics at a small coastal community near Corpus Christi, TX. The intrusion characteristics under various plausible climate and urbanization scenarios were evaluated with consideration given to uncertainty and variability of hydrogeologic parameters. The results of the study indicate that low levels of climate change have a greater impact on the freshwater-saltwater interface when the level of urbanization is low. However, the rate of inward intrusion of the saltwater wedge is controlled more so by urbanization effects than climate change. On a local (near coast) scale, the freshwater-saltwater interface was affected by groundwater production locations more so than the volume produced by the community. On a regional-scale, the sea level rise at the coast was noted to have limited impact on saltwater intrusion which was primarily controlled by freshwater influx from the hinterlands towards the coast. These results indicate that coastal communities must work proactively with planners from the up-dip areas to ensure adequate freshwater flows to the coast. Field monitoring of this parameter is clearly warranted. The concordance analysis indicated that input parameter sensitivity did not change across modeled scenarios indicating that future data collection and groundwater monitoring efforts should not be hampered by noted divergences in projected climate and urbanization patterns.     

华北平原地下水演化及预测

华北平原近４０年来大规模地下水开采已导致一系列严重的环境问题,不利于当地经济可持续发展。本文根据地下水演化主要取决于自然因素和人类活动本着抓主要矛盾且易于操作的原理,主要研究降雨及开采地下水这一对主要供需预矛盾,利用水均衡方法并结合数理统计方法,建立地下水演化模型并预测该区主要地区和城市的水资源盈亏情况,为该区地下水合理开发利用及环境保护提供科学依据。     

Impact of climate change on waterlogging and salinity distributions in Huai Khamrian subwatershed, NE Thailand

Regional climate models project significant changes in temperature and rainfall over the Greater Mekong Subregion over the twenty-first century. The potential impacts of climate change on areas affected by waterlogging and shallow saline groundwater in Northeast Thailand was investigated using the variable density groundwater model SEAWAT supported with recharge estimates derived from the hydrologic model HELP3. The focal area is the 154 km² Huai Kamrian subwatershed. Changes in groundwater salinity and waterlogging areas at the middle and end of this century were predicted using the calibrated model. These predictions used the dynamically downscaled PRECIS regional climate change scenarios generated by ECHAM4 GCM A2 and B2 scenarios. Recharge rates are predicted to increase as a result of the higher intensity of rainfall. Shallow watertable areas are projected to increase by approximately 23 % from existing conditions during the middle of the century and up to 25 % by the end of this century. Although the precise rate and timing of climate change impacts are uncertain, all of the scenarios clearly point towards an extension in the area of waterlogging and area affected by shallow saline groundwater areas. Given that areas affected by shallow saline watertables are predicted to expand for both climate change scenarios as well as for the base case, it is concluded that climate change will have a significant impact on the area affected by salinity and waterlogging areas for both climate change scenarios. Evaluation of management options that explore the adaptation to saline environments and to means to reduce salt affected areas are required.     

Assessing the impact of climate change on Mogan and Eymir Lakes’ levels in Central Turkey

Global warming is likely to have significant effect on the hydrological cycle. Some parts of the world may see significant reductions in precipitation or major alterations in the timing of wet and dry seasons. Climate change is one of the serious pressures facing water resources and their management over the next few years and decades. As part of the southern belt of Mediterranean Europe, Turkey is highly vulnerable to anticipated climate change impacts. The changes in global climate will seriously affect inland freshwater ecosystems and coastal lakes. Mogan and Eymir Lakes located in Central Turkey are shallow lakes that may be impacted significantly by climate change. The interaction between the lakes and groundwater system has been modelled in order to analyse the response of lake levels to climate change over a planning period of 96 years, beginning from October 2004 and ending in September 2100. The impacts of the emission scenarios of A2 and B1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on lake levels have been analyzed with the help of the lake-aquifer simulation model. The fluctuations in lake levels due to climate change scenarios are compared with the results of a scenario generated by the assumption of the continuation of the average recharge and discharge conditions observed for 1999 and 2004. The results show that very small, but long-term changes to precipitation and temperature have the potential to cause significant declines in lake levels and temporary drying of the lakes in the long-term. The impact of climate change on lake levels will depend on how these water resources are managed in the future.     

Impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge in Küçük Menderes River Basin in Western Turkey

Groundwater is an important component of the global freshwater supply and is affected by climate. There is a strong need to understand and evaluate the impacts of climate change over the long term, in order to better plan and manage precious groundwater resources. Turkey, located in Mediterranean basin, is threatened by climate change. The purpose of this study was, through a quantitative overview, to determine the impacts of climate change on the groundwater recharge rates in Küçük Menderes River Basin in western Turkey. According to the data of Ödemi? and Selçuk meteorological stations located in the basin, there is a significantly decreasing trend in precipitation combined with increasing trends in temperature and evaporation observed in 1964–2011. The calculations of groundwater recharge with hydrologic budget method for the observation period showed an approximately 15% decline in groundwater recharge in the basin. Thus, the combined impacts of climate change and excessive groundwater pumping, due to increasing water demand, have caused a significant decline in groundwater levels. Consequently, the proper management of the groundwater resources threatened by climate change requires effective governance to both mitigate the adverse impacts of climate change and facilitate the adaptation of sustainable integrated water management policies.     

Assessing the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on Haihe River basin,eastern China: a coupled model approach

The modeling of changes in surface water and groundwater in the areas of inter-basin water diversion projects is quite difficult because surface water and groundwater models are run separately most of the time and the lack of sufficient data limits the application of complex surface-water/groundwater coupling models based on physical laws, especially for developing countries. In this study, a distributed surface-water and groundwater coupling model, named the distributed time variant gain model–groundwater model (DTVGM-GWM), was used to assess the influence of climate change and inter-basin water diversion on a watershed hydrological cycle. The DTVGM-GWM model can reflect the interaction processes of surface water and groundwater at basin scale. The model was applied to the Haihe River Basin (HRB) in eastern China. The possible influences of climate change and the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) on surface water and groundwater in the HRB were analyzed under various scenarios. The results showed that the newly constructed model DTVGM-GWM can reasonably simulate the surface and river runoff, and describe the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of groundwater level, groundwater storage and phreatic recharge. The prediction results under different scenarios showed a decline in annual groundwater exploitation and also runoff in the HRB, while an increase of groundwater storage and groundwater level after the SNWDP’s operation. Additionally, as the project also addresses future scenarios, a slight increase is predicted in the actual evapotranspiration, soil water content and phreatic recharge. This study provides valuable insights for developing sustainable groundwater management options for the HRB.     

Characterizing the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the karst aquifer of Fangshan,Beijing (China)

Correct understanding of groundwater/surface-water (GW–SW) interaction in karst systems is of greatest importance for managing the water resources. A typical karst region, Fangshan in northern China, was selected as a case study. Groundwater levels and hydrochemistry analyses, together with isotope data based on hydrogeological field investigations, were used to assess the GW–SW interaction. Chemistry data reveal that water type and the concentration of cations in the groundwater are consistent with those of the surface water. Stable isotope ratios of all samples are close to the local meteoric water line, and the ³H concentrations of surface water and groundwater samples are close to that of rainfall, so isotopes also confirm that karst groundwater is recharged by rainfall. Cross-correlation analysis reveals that rainfall leads to a rise in groundwater level with a lag time of 2 months and groundwater exploitation leads to a fall within 1 month. Spectral analysis also reveals that groundwater level, groundwater exploitation and rainfall have significantly similar response periods, indicating their possible inter-relationship. Furthermore, a multiple nonlinear regression model indicates that groundwater level can be negatively correlated with groundwater exploitation, and positively correlated with rainfall. The overall results revealed that groundwater level has a close correlation with groundwater exploitation and rainfall, and they are indicative of a close hydraulic connection and interaction between surface water and groundwater in this karst system.     

江苏沿海地区深层地下水开发利用现状及环境地质问题

江苏沿海地区深层地下水在开发利用过程中，由于开采布局不合理和存在“三集中”(开采层次集中、开采地段集中、开采时间集中)以及水文环境地质条件脆弱等因素，出现水位逐年下降，并形成区域性降落漏斗，致使部分地段地下水资源枯竭、水质成化和诱发地面沉降等诸多环境地质问题。本文着重分析沿海地区深层地下水开发利用的6个阶段(初级、城市开采、城市超采、区域超采、区域控制开采和区域压缩开采阶段)、区域降落漏斗的3个发展过程(1986年、1995年和2002年)和因深层水超量开采诱发的水资源枯竭、水质成化和地面沉降等环境地质问题的发育特征及演化趋势，从地下水资源管理和可持续发展的角度，提出深层水的保护规划、浅层咸水、海水资源的开发利用、实行强制节水、污水资源化和发展海洋性产业的对策建议。     

Evaluation of climate change effects in a coastal aquifer in Morocco using a density-dependent numerical model

A density-dependent numerical groundwater model was applied to study the climate change impact in a shallow aquifer in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, the Saïdia aquifer. The stresses imposed to the model were derived from the IPCC emission scenarios and included recharge variation and sea level rise. The main effect of the climate change in the Saïdia aquifer will be a decrease in renewable resources, which in the worst-case scenario may decrease to 50–60% of present-day values, due to the decline in recharge and to a reduced inflow from the adjacent Triffa aquifer. The water quality will be affected mostly in the area immediately adjacent to the seashore, where salinity may increase up to 30 g/l. Localised areas may see a decrease in salinity due to the induced freshwater recharge from Oued Moulouya River and diminished inflow from high-salinity springs.