海河流域1961年-2010年极端气温与降水变化趋势分析

以海河流域30个气象基准站1956年-2010年气温和降水日值资料为基础,选取12个表征极端气候变化指标,分析了该流域极端气温与降水的变化趋势。结果表明:海河流域极端高温的强度、频度和持续时间均有较强的增加趋势;极端低温的强度、频度显著降低,反映出流域整体增温的气候变化背景;流域短历时极端降水强度有增大趋势,年极端降水的发生频次降低,连续湿日表现出一定的减少趋势,而连续干日在近几十年来有一定的增加趋势,区域呈现弱干化趋势。从年代际变化特征看,20世纪90年代以来,年极端高温事件和短历时强降水事件发生趋于频繁,而长持续性降水事件的降水量减少。海河流域整体的暖干趋势以及降水集中的趋势,将对农业生产、水资源开发利用造成不利影响,同时,短历时极端强降水事件的增加可能加剧局地的山洪灾害和城市内涝的风险。     

珠江三角洲水位变化趋势及其影响分析

珠江三角洲网河区５０年代至６０年代大规模联围筑闸后，对以洪为主河道，上下游高高潮位或低低潮痊都有所壅高，且壅高值为上游大于下游，沿而下呈递减变化；对以潮为主的河道，高潮位或低潮位都呈上升趋势，县低潮位上升明显。河道泥沙淤积也促使洪水位不断提高。另外，预计未来５０ａ海平面上升将使网河区水位相应地抬升，其中对以径 主的河口如磨刀门水位影响较小，对以潮流为主的河口如虎门、蕉门水位影响较大。     

赣江流域气候和土地利用变化对蓝绿水的影响

采用标准化降水指数(SPI)确定赣江流域的典型年,基于SWAT模型,对典型年份赣江流域蓝绿水的时空分布进行了分析;设置多种气候与土地利用情景,定量分析了气候和土地利用变化对流域内蓝绿水的影响。结果表明:1972年、1998年和2014年分别为赣江流域的干旱年、湿润年和正常年;湿润年的蓝水量最为丰富,是干旱年的2.01倍,绿水量的变化相对稳定,干旱年绿水系数最高,是湿润年的1.44倍;土地利用变化对蓝绿水的时空分布影响较小;气候变化情景下蓝水量、绿水量分别增加了75.52mm和30.65mm,绿水系数减小了2.33%,共同变化情景下蓝绿水变化趋势与气候变化情景大致相同,表明气候变化对流域蓝绿水的影响较大。     

气候变化对黄河水资源的影响及其适应性管理

气候变化将直接影响降水、蒸散发和径流等水文要素,并在一定程度上改变水资源量及其时空分布,进一步影响水资源利用格局及水安全形势。气候变化对水资源安全的影响是国际上普遍关心的全球性问题,也是我国可持续发展面临的重大战略问题。黄河作为中华民族的母亲河,在全球气候变化的条件下,水资源的供需矛盾日益尖锐。结合黄河的水资源特点,研究和评价了气候变化情景下黄河水资源的脆弱性,并从配置、利用、调度、管理方面系统地提出了适应性对策:探讨有序适应的黄河流域水资源优化配置方案;完善水沙调控体系,探讨高效输沙模式;合理开发非常规水资源;优化调整梯级水库运用方式;实施最严格的水资源管理制度;积极实施外流域调水。     

塔里木河流域未来农业水价调整中水资源费计价模型

在已有研究的基础上,对水资源费的种类进行了进一步细分,将水资源费分为:绝对水租、级差水租、水资源稀缺价值、水资源选择价值和超定额用水的水资源费价值,对未来塔里木河流域水资源费价格形成机制进行分析,构建了塔里木河流域未来农业水价进一步调整中水资源费的计价模型,这些研究将成为未来塔里木河流域农业水价调整的理论基础和农业水资源经济配置的重要经济手段之一。     

Identification of River Sections for Domestic Water Supply along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China

This paper presents major findings from a recent study aiming to systematically determine suitable river sections for local domestic water supply along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu Province, China. On the basis of analysis on the current riverbank utilization and bank stability, accessible and stable river sections in the region were selected. The water quality in these river sections was then studied using a two-dimensional unsteady flow and pollutant transport/transformation model, RBFVM-2D. The model was calibrated and verified against the hydrodynamic data, water quality data and remote sensing data collected from the river. The investigation on the pollution sources along the river identified 56 main pollution point sources. The pollution zones downstream of these point sources are the main threat for the water quality in the river. The model was used to compute the pollution zones. In particular, simulations were conducted to establish the relationship between the extent of the pollution zone and the wastewater discharge rate of the associated point source. These water quality simulation results were combined with the riverbank stability analysis to determine suitable river sections for local domestic water supply.     

Hydro-economic Modeling in River Basin Management: Implications and Applications for the European Water Framework Directive

Economic ideas and processes are becoming increasingly integrated with more traditional engineering and hydrologic models of water management problems. Combining economic management concepts and performance indicators with an engineering-level of understanding of a hydrologic system can provide results and insights more directly relevant for water management decisions and policies. When such models are developed and used with involvement of stakeholders, they can become a basis for shared understanding of water problems as a foundation for negotiated management and policy solutions. When implemented with optimization software, integrated hydro-economic models also can suggest promising innovative solutions for policy-makers to consider. Their applications to river basin management problems are reviewed. Economic and integrated economic-engineering-hydrologic modeling is then discussed in the context of the evolving European Water Framework Directive. Relevant items are cost recovery and water pricing, cost-effectiveness of water management measures, and public participation in decision processes.     

土地利用变化和气候波动对东江流域水循环的影响

研究土地利用变化和气候波动对东江流域水资源及水循环的影响，将为东江流域国民经济的可持续性发展、水资源的有效利用和调配等提供决策依据。以SCS模型为基础，建立适用于东江流域的月水量平衡模型，并利用8个代表流域的资料进行检验，模型结构简单，模拟结果说明所建模型具有较高的模拟精度。     

长江流域水资源开发保护中的关键科学和技术问题

为了应对长江流域水资源开发保护面临的新要求和新挑战,对所涉及的关键科学和技术问题进行了探讨.研究表明,新时期下的长江流域水资源开发保护需要具有整体性和系统性的水问题治理目标和模式,其中涉及到的关键科学与技术问题包括:气候变化和人类活动等多因素影响下四水问题耦合驱动机制、水环境与水资源开发保护及经济社会发展的相互作用关系...     

Sensitivity of water quality indicators in a large tropical reservoir to selected climate and land‐use changes

This study compared the sensitivity of water quality in tropical Aguamilpa Reservoir, as represented by normalized algae mass and dissolved oxygen, to selected projected changes from global climate change and development. The sensitivity of reservoir stratification as an indicator of reservoir sensitivity also was analysed. Model simulations indicated the reservoir was more sensitive to changes during the warm‐dry season than at other times. Both indexes (normalized algal mass and dissolved oxygen mass) were more sensitive to changes in air temperature (climate change) and nitrogen loading (development) than to changes in flow. The sensitivity to air temperature was similar to, but generally less than, the sensitivity to nutrient inflow. At the bounding values for change (3 °C for temperature; 50% increase in nitrogen loading), the algae mass sensitivities were 0.15 mg L^?1 per 3 °C and 0.2 mg L^?1 per 50% nitrogen load increase, and the dissolved oxygen mass sensitivities were 0.7 mg L^?1 per 3 °C and 2.0 mg L^?1 per 50% load increase. Changes in air temperature and nitrogen loadings affect the reservoir in different ways, air temperature mostly changing the timing of the algal growth with little change in peak values, while nutrient loadings change the peak values with little change in the timing. While the sensitivities are similar, the total algal mass change is significantly larger for nitrogen loading, compared to air temperature changes. These results imply global climate change effects can be partially mitigated by implementing management measures in the surrounding watersheds to minimize nutrient inflows, especially nitrogen in the case of Aguamilpa Reservoir.     

A Semi-Distributed Monthly Water Balance Model and its Application in a Climate Change Impact Study in the Middle and Lower Yellow River Basin

Abstract

Human activities and climatic change have greatly impacted hydrological cycles and water resources planning in the Yellow River basin. In order to assess these impacts, a semi-distributed monthly water balance model was proposed and developed to simulate and predict the hydrological processes in the middle and lower Yellow River basin. GIS techniques were used as a tool to analyze topography, river networks, land-use, human activities, vegetation, and soil characteristics. The model parameters were calibrated in 35 gauged sub-basins in the middle Yellow River, and then the relationships between the model parameters and the basin physical characteristics were established. A parameterization scheme was developed in which the model parameters were estimated for each grid element by regression and optimization methods. Based on the different outputs of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), the sensitivities to global warming of hydrology and water resources for the Yellow River basin were studied. The proposed models are capable of producing both the magnitude and timing of runoff and water resources conditions. The runoffs are found to be very sensitive to temperature increases and rainfall decreases. Results of the study also indicated that runoff is more sensitive to variation in precipitation than to increase in temperature. The additional uncertainty of climate change has posed a challenge to the existing water resources management practices, and the integration of water resources management will be necessary to enhance the water use efficiency in the Yellow River basin.     

长江三角洲地区气候变化背景下城市化发展与水安全问题

全球变暖等气候变化背景下,城市化的高速发展给长江三角洲地区水文和水资源带来了较大的影响,该区域的水安全问题成为人们关注的热点。通过对该地区水文水资源变化气候背景的分析,选择区域内的典型城市,以遥感和GIS作支持,开展以城市化发展为标志的下垫面变化对降雨、径流及暴雨洪水的影响研究,分析了城市化发展对河网水系与水环境的影响。在此基础上,从保证城市水安全的角度,对水资源持续利用与优化配置进行了分析和探讨,以寻求地区城市化发展下的水资源利用与保护的对策措施,从而为保障地区水安全以及经济持续发展提供支持。     

中亚瓦赫什河上游源区气候水文要素演变特征

为研究全球变化背景下中亚河流源区气候水文变化,基于中亚跨境河流瓦赫什河上游源区1955—2017年气象水文数据,分析了流域内气候水文要素演变特征及流量变化主要控制因子。结果表明:瓦赫什河上游源区近1955—2017年气候呈现暖湿化趋势;瓦赫什河上游源区气温在1994年发生突变现象,降水在2007年与2012年发生突变现象,流量则在2003年发生突变现象;小波分析显示瓦赫什河上游流域气温、降水、流量的第一主周期分别为28 a、20 a、28 a,周期性振荡明显;瓦赫什河上游源区在气候水文要素关联上,气温与流量变化相较于降水紧密,但受全球升温停滞影响,温度对于流量作用并没有持续增强。     

Analysis of changes in flood regime using a distributed hydrological model: a case study in the Second Songhua River basin,China

Abstract

This study proposes and tests a new approach to detect and analyze changes in flood regime using a distributed hydrological model (EasyDHM), using the Second Songhua River basin, China, as a case study. Model calibration and parameter sensitivity were used to represent flood regimes in a 60-year series (1954–2013), with three different flood regime periods identified. The changes in flood regime were estimated by model parameters, flood result residuals and the overall process in the hydrological model in the three periods. The results show that human activities significantly impacted flood regimes, with significant flood regime change largely attributed to increases in water storage in multiple small reservoirs. Flood volume was reduced significantly between the periods in all three watersheds. The parameters also changed in variety between the periods. The study highlights the importance of incorporating data on small-reservoir constructions in flood control systems.     

北洛河流域近期水沙变化原因水文分析

在分析北洛河流域自然环境特征和水土保持情况的基础上,利用降雨径流泥沙资料,建立降雨产流产沙统计模型,分析了北洛河流域近期水沙变化原因.结果表明:北洛河流域的减沙主要是刘家河以上的减沙,人类活动影响约占60%,降雨影响约占40%;径流量的大量减少主要发生在刘家河以下,就人类活动与降雨影响来看,降雨影响约占60%～70%,人类活动影响约占30%～40%.     

黄河流域气候与水资源演变特点研究

以观测资料和前人研究成果为基础,阐述了气候变化对黄河流域水资源总量、极端水文事件、水生态环境等的影响;指出气候变化已经影响到了黄河流域水资源系统的各个环节,这种影响是否是趋势性的．未来影响程度如何,有待进一步研究。黄河流域气候变化对水资源影响评估研究正在兴起．黄河流域气候变化研究应该着重极端气象水文事件变化对流域水沙调控体系建设、水资源统一管理和调度、黄土高原区和河口区生态环境等的影响及其适应性管理对策研究,以促进流域综合管理。     

Water quality changes in hyporheic flow paths between a large gravel bed river and off‐channel alcoves in Oregon,USA

Changes in water quality that occur as water flows along hyporheic flow paths may have important effects on surface water quality and aquatic habitat, yet very few studies have examined these hyporheic processes along large gravel bed rivers. To determine water quality changes associated with hyporheic flow along the Willamette River, Oregon, we studied hyporheic flow at six‐bar deposit sites positioned between the main river channel and connected lentic alcoves. We installed piezometers and wells at each site and measured water levels and water quality in river, hyporheic and alcove water. Piezometric surfaces along with substrate characteristics were used to determine hyporheic flow path direction and hyporheic flow rate. At all sites, hyporheic flow moved from the river through bar deposits into alcove surface water. Stable isotope analysis showed little influence of upwelling groundwater. At a majority of sites, hyporheic dissolved oxygen and ammonium decreased relative to river water, and hyporheic specific conductance, nitrate and soluble reactive phosphorous increased relative to river water. At three sites, hyporheic temperature decreased 3–7°C relative to river water; there was less temperature change at the other three sites. At the two sites with the highest hyporheic flow rates, hyporheic cooling was propagated into the alcove surface water. Hyporheic changes had the greatest effect on alcove water quality at sites with highly permeable substrates and high‐hyporheic flow rates. The best approach to enhancing hyporheic flows and associated water quality functions is through restoring fluviogeomorphic channel processes that create and maintain high‐permeability gravel deposits conducive to hyporheic flow. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of land‐use change and climate variability on streamflow in the Woken River basin in Northeast China

In this study, the soil and water assessment tool, which is a widely used hydrological model, is applied to study the response of streamflow to land‐use changes and climate variability in the Woken River basin in northeastern China. This model is calibrated and verified based on sensitivity analysis to simulate the effects of land‐use change, climate variability, and extreme land‐use scenarios on streamflow. Simulations are performed to construct different scenarios for quantitative analysis. Compared with the base period, the land‐use change reduced the annual average streamflow and had little effect on the monthly streamflow. Climate variability increased the average annual streamflow and had a substantial effect on monthly streamflow. The effect of climate variability on streamflow was much greater than that of land‐use changes. Under the extreme land‐use scenarios, the annual average streamflow under the forestland scenario decreased, and the average annual streamflow under the grassland and agricultural land scenarios increased. Both the forestland and grassland scenarios exhibited lower monthly streamflow from March to August with especially large influences in June–August, which was when floods were more likely to occur. The agricultural land scenario exhibited the opposite trend. These results indicate that climate variability will obviously change streamflow and that natural disasters related to both high and heavy precipitation must be emphasised. Relevant departments can optimize the land‐use structure and spatial layout to mitigate the negative effects of climate variability.     

基于区域水平衡理论和SWAT模型的沁河流域水收支平衡演变分析

基于区域水平衡理论和SWAT模型,提出了分布式水收支平衡模型的构建思路及水收支平衡计算方法,对人类活动和未来气候变化情景下的沁河流域水收支平衡状况进行模拟,并通过皮尔逊相关系数和Mann-Kendall检验方法分析了水收支平衡的关键影响要素及其演变规律。结果表明:2010—2016年沁河流域蓄水总量呈下降趋势,降水量及出口径流量为沁河流域水收支平衡相对关键的影响要素；未来多气候情景下蓄水总量呈上升趋势,多年平均降水量及出口径流量两个关键影响要素的总体变化情况与辐射强迫水平呈正相关关系；典型气候情景SSP2-4.5下降水量及出口径流量在2037—2041年、2061—2063年可能存在突变。     

黄河源区径流变化特征及影响因素研究

近年来,黄河源区水资源状况发生了较大变化,为探究黄河源区径流变化特征及影响因素,基于1961-2018年共58 a的径流和气象资料,采用Mann-Kendall检验和小波分析等方法对其进行了分析。结果表明：黄河源区径流量整体上呈现出不显著减少趋势,递减速率为-0.63×10⁸ m³/a,夏、秋季减少幅度大,冬、春季减少幅度较小;1990年前后径流量均呈现不显著增加趋势,且1990年后增加趋势明显加速,后者增幅是前者的3.09倍;1990年后,降水量和气温递增高值区高度重合,且降水量是影响径流量变化的最重要因素。说明暖湿化加速和空间迁移过程导致了黄河源区冰川的加速消融,这也是1990年后径流快速增加的主要原因。