The prediction of SO2 removal using statistical methods and artificial neural network

Artificial neural network and a statistical model have been applied in a laboratory scale trickle bed reactor (TBR) to investigate the SO₂ removal efficiency of activated carbon. The performance of artificial neural network (ANN) model has been compared with the statistical model based on central composite experimental design. Two independent variables, which affect the amount of SO₂ removal by the liquid phase in the TBR, were selected; namely liquid flow rate and gas flow rate. Amount of SO₂ removal was chosen as the dependent variable (target data). A second order statistical model has been considered to show the dependence of the amount of SO₂ removal on the operating parameters. A back-propagation ANN has been used to develop a model relating to the amount of SO₂ removal. A series of experiments have been conducted on the basis of the statistics-based design of experimental method. It is observed that a neural network architecture having one input layer with two neurons, one hidden layer with three neurons, one output layer with one neuron and an epoch size of 20 gives better prediction. The predictions are more accurate than those obtained from regression models.     

Prediction of bankruptcy Iranian corporations through artificial neural network and Probit-based analyses

In this study, multilayer perceptron (MLP) of artificial neural networks is utilized to build a new model for bankruptcy prediction. A precise MLP-based relationship is obtained to classify samples of 136 bankrupt and non-bankrupt Iranian corporations using their financial ratios. A Probit analysis is performed to benchmark the MLP model. Ratios of sales to current assets ratio, operational income to sales, quick assets to total assets, and total liability to total assets are used as the effective predictive financial ratios. A comparative study is further conducted on the classification accuracy of the MLP, Probit, and other existing models. The proposed MLP model has a significantly better performance than the Probit and other models found in the bankruptcy prediction literature.     

Analysis of international debt problem using artificial neural networks and statistical methods

It is known from the scientific researches that artificial neural networks are alternatives of statistical methods such as regression analysis and classification in recent years. Since multi-layer backpropagation neural network models are nonlinear, it is expected that the neural network models should make better classifications and predictions. The studies on this subject support that idea. In this study, a macro-economic problem on rescheduling or non-rescheduling of the countries’ international debts is taken into account. Among the statistical methods, logistic and probit regression, and the different neural network backpropagation algorithms are applied and comparisons are made. Evaluations and suggestions are made depending on the results and different neural network architecture.     

Prediction of rock fragmentation due to blasting using artificial neural network

Prediction of rock fragmentation is essential for optimizing blasting operation. Fragmentation depends on many parameters such as rock mass properties, blast geometry and explosive properties. In this paper, artificial neural network (ANN) method is implemented to develop a model to predict rock fragmentation due to blasting in an iron ore mine. In the developing of the proposed model eight parameters such as hole diameter, burden, powder factor, blastability index, etc., were incorporated. Training of the model was performed by back-propagation algorithm using 220 datasets. A four-layer ANN was found to be optimum with architecture 10-9-7-1. Sensitivity analysis revealed that the most effective parameters on rock fragmentation are blastability index (G), charge per delay (J), burden (C), SMR (F) and powder factor (E).     

Prediction of unconfined compressive strength of rock surrounding a roadway using artificial neural network

The unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of rocks is an important design parameter in rock engineering and geotechnics, which is required and determined for rock mechanical studies in mining and civil projects. This parameter is usually determined through a laboratory UCS test. Since the preparation of high-quality samples is difficult, expensive and time consuming for laboratory tests, development of predictive models for determining the mechanical properties of rocks seems to be essential in rock engineering. In this study, an attempt was made to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) and multivariable regression analysis (MVRA) models in order to predict UCS of rock surrounding a roadway. For this, a database of laboratory tests was prepared, which includes rock type, Schmidt hardness, density and porosity as input parameters and UCS as output parameter. To make a database (including 93 datasets), different rock samples, ranging from weak to very strong types, are used. To compare the performance of developed models, determination coefficient (R ²), variance account for (VAF), mean absolute error (E _a) and mean relative error (E _r) indices between predicted and measured values were calculated. Based on this comparison, it was concluded that performance of the ANN model is considerably better than the MVRA model. Further, a sensitivity analysis shows that rock density and Schmidt hardness were recognized as the most effective parameters, whereas porosity was considered as the least effective input parameter on the ANN model output (UCS) in this study.     

Cluster analysis in industrial market segmentation through artificial neural network

Market segmentation has commonly applied cluster analysis. This study intends to make the comparison of conventional two-stage method with proposed two-stage method through the simulated data. The proposed two-stage method is the combination of self-organizing feature maps and K-means method. The simulation results show that the proposed scheme is better than the conventional two-stage method based on the rate of misclassification.     

Prediction of the strength of mineral admixture concrete using multivariable regression analysis and an artificial neural network

This study applies multiple regression analysis and an artificial neural network in estimating the compressive strength of concrete that contains various amounts of blast furnace slag and fly ash, based on the properties of the additives (blast furnace slag and fly ash in this case) and values obtained by non-destructive testing rebound number and ultrasonic pulse velocity for 28 different concrete mixtures (M_control and M₁–M₂₇) at different curing times (3, 7, 28, 90, and 180 days). The results obtained using the two methods are then compared and discussed. The results reveal that although multiple regression analysis was more accurate than artificial neural network in predicting the compressive strength using values obtained from non-destructive testing, the artificial neural network models performed better than did multiple regression analysis models. The application of an artificial neural network to the prediction of the compressive strength in admixture concrete of various curing times shows great potential in terms of inverse problems, and it is suitable for calculating nonlinear functional relationships, for which classical methods cannot be applied.     

Prediction of sand ripple geometry under waves using an artificial neural network

The length and height of a sand ripple in the seabed are the two basic parameters used to estimate the bottom shear stress and predict the transport of sand by wave action. These values are currently obtained with the help of many empirical equations. A different estimation method, in the form of an artificial neural network, is presented in this paper. The network is trained by measurements collected in the laboratory and in-situ under different forcing conditions. Validation of the present neural network results with different measurements shows that the new method can predict the ripple length and height much more accurately than the conventional empirical equations.     

Prediction of creep curve of HP40Nb steel using artificial neural network

Neural Computing and Applications - Simulation of creep curves using data obtained from a limited number of short-time creep tests is helpful for predicting the long-time creep life of materials by...     

Suspended sediment load simulation by two artificial neural network methods using hydrometeorological data

Estimates of sediment load are required in a wide spectrum of water resources engineering problems. The nonlinear nature of suspended sediment load series necessitates the utilization of nonlinear methods for simulating the suspended sediment load. In this study artificial neural networks (ANNs) are employed to estimate the daily total suspended sediment load on rivers. Two different ANN algorithms, the feed-forward back-propagation (FFBP) method and the radial basis functions (RBF), were used for this purpose. The neural networks are trained using rainfall flow and suspended sediment load data from the Juniata Catchment, USA. The simulations provided satisfactory simulations in terms of the selected performance criteria comparing well with conventional multi-linear regression. Similarly, the simulated sediment load hydrographs obtained by two ANN methods are found closer to the observed ones again compared with multi-linear regression.     

Emergence of adaptive behaviors for artificial creature using a combined artificial neural network

This study proposes a method to acquire adaptive behavior for artificial creature which has a lot of joints using a combined Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Experiment in this study focuses on artificial fish model, which has a lot of joints, tracking towards a target in the virtual water environment. In order to control motions of joints, a combined ANN is implemented with the model. At first, one ANN is prepared to control specific joints so as to swim basically in response to minimal input information using evolutionary computation in preliminary experiments. And an new network is constructed by combining its network and the other network. In order to acquire complicate behavior for artificial creature, weights of combined ANN are optimized. Experiment result shows the model which has many joints acquire adaptive swimming behavior towards a target by optimizing combined network.     

Fractional snow cover mapping through artificial neural network analysis of MODIS surface reflectance

Accurate areal measurements of snow cover extent are important for hydrological and climate modeling. The traditional method of mapping snow cover is binary where a pixel is considered either snow-covered or snow-free. Fractional snow cover (FSC) mapping can achieve a more precise estimate of areal snow cover extent by estimating the fraction of a pixel that is snow-covered. The most common snow fraction methods applied to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) images have been spectral unmixing and an empirical Normalized Difference Snow Index (NDSI). Machine learning is an alternative for estimating FSC as artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been successfully used for estimating the subpixel abundances of other surfaces. The advantages of ANNs are that they can easily incorporate auxiliary information such as land cover type and are capable of learning nonlinear relationships between surface reflectance and snow fraction. ANNs are especially applicable to mapping snow cover extent in forested areas where spatial mixing of surface components is nonlinear. This study developed a multilayer feed-forward ANN trained through backpropagation to estimate FSC using MODIS surface reflectance, NDSI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and land cover as inputs. The ANN was trained and validated with higher spatial-resolution FSC maps derived from Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) binary snow cover maps. Testing of the network was accomplished over training and independent test areas. The developed network performed adequately with RMSE of 12% over training areas and slightly less accurately over the independent test scenes with RMSE of 14%. The developed ANN also compared favorably to the standard MODIS FSC product. The study also presents a comprehensive validation of the standard MODIS snow fraction product whose performance was found to be similar to that of the ANN.     

A comparative study on authorship attribution classification tasks using both neural network and statistical methods

The present paper investigates the application of the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) to the task of categorizing texts based on their authors’ style. This task is of particular importance for information retrieval applications involving very large document databases. The emphasis of this article is to determine the extent to which the MLP model can be fine-tuned to successfully analyse such data, uncovering the stylistic differences among authors. The MLP-based method is compared and contrasted to statistical techniques, such as discriminant analysis, that are widely used in stylistic studies. The comparison of the methods is based on their classification performance, to provide an objective evaluation of the advantages of each method. A second aim of the study presented here is to compare the effectiveness of distinct features in the task of uncovering the author identity for each method. To evaluate to a greater depth the effectiveness of the entire approach, the results of the proposed MLP-based method are compared to those of established approaches, such as the support vector machines (SVM), using both the original parameters employed by the MLP as well as term frequency–inverse document frequency (TF–IDF) parameters, and the cascade correlation approach. It is found that the proposed MLP-based approach possesses a number of advantages, such as high classification accuracy, broadly comparable to that of the SVM, coupled with the ability to algorithmically reduce the set of parameters used without adversely affecting the classification accuracy.     

Estimation of all-terminal network reliability using an artificial neural network

The exact calculation of all-terminal network reliability is an NP-hard problem, with computational effort growing exponentially with the number of nodes and links in the network. During optimal network design, a huge number of candidate topologies are typically examined with each requiring a network reliability calculation. Because of the impracticality of calculating all-terminal network reliability for networks of moderate to large size, Monte Carlo simulation methods to estimate network reliability and upper and lower bounds to bound reliability have been used as alternatives. This paper puts forth another alternative to the estimation of all-terminal network reliability — that of artificial neural network (ANN) predictive models. Neural networks are constructed, trained and validated using the network topologies, the link reliabilities, and a network reliability upperbound as inputs and the exact network reliability as the target. A hierarchical approach is used: a general neural network screens all network topologies for reliability followed by a specialized neural network for highly reliable network designs. Both networks with identical link reliability and networks with varying link reliability are studied. Results, using a grouped cross-validation approach, show that the ANN approach yields more precise estimates than the upperbound, especially in the worst cases. Using the reliability estimation methods of the ANN, the upperbound and backtracking, optimal network design by simulated annealing is considered. Results show that the ANN regularly produces superior network designs at a reasonable computational cost.Scope and purposeAn important application area of operations research is the design of structures, products or systems where both technical and business aspects must be considered. One expanding design domain is the design of computer or communications networks. While cost is a prime consideration, reliability is equally important. A common reliability measure is all-terminal reliability, the probability that all nodes (computers or terminals) on the network can communicate with all others. Exact calculation of all-terminal reliability is an NP-hard problem, precluding its use during optimal network topology design, where this calculation must be made thousands or millions of times. This paper presents a novel computationally practical method for estimating all-terminal network reliability. Is shown how a neural network can be used to estimate all-terminal network reliability by using the network topology, the link reliabilities and an upperbound on all-terminal network reliability as inputs. The neural network is trained and validated on a very minute fraction of possible network topologies, and once trained, it can be used without restriction during network design for a topology of a fixed number of nodes. The trained neural network is extremely fast computationally and can accommodate a variety of network design problems. The neural network approach, an upper bound approach and an exact backtracking calculation are compared for network design using simulated annealing for optimization and show that the neural network approach yields superior designs at manageable computational cost.     

Prediction of cutting temperature in orthogonal machining of AISI 316L using artificial neural network

In this study, an approach based on artificial neural network (ANN) was proposed to predict the experimental cutting temperatures generated in orthogonal turning of AISI 316L stainless steel. Experimental and numerical analyses of the cutting forces were carried out to numerically obtain the cutting temperature. For this purpose, cutting tests were conducted using coated (TiCN + Al₂O₃ + TiN and Al₂O₃) and uncoated cemented carbide inserts. The Deform-2D programme was used for numerical modelling and the Johnson–Cook (J–C) material model was used. The numerical cutting forces for the coated and uncoated tools were compared with the experimental results. On the other hand, the cutting temperature value for each cutting tool was numerically obtained. The artificial neural network model was used to predict numerical cutting temperatures by means of the numerical cutting forces. The best results in predicting the cutting temperature were obtained using the network architecture with a hidden layer which has seven neurons and LM learning algorithm. Finally, the experimental cutting temperatures were predicted by entering the experimental cutting forces into a formula obtained from the artificial neural networks. Statistical results (R², RMSE, MEP) were quite satisfactory. This demonstrates that the established ANN model is a powerful one for predicting the experimental cutting temperatures.     

Prediction of power output of a coal-fired power plant by artificial neural network

Accurate modeling of thermal power plant is very useful as well as difficult. Conventional simulation programs based on heat and mass balances represent plant processes with mathematical equations. These are good for understanding the processes but usually complicated and at times limited with large number of parameters needed. On the other hand, artificial neural network (ANN) models could be developed using real plant data, which are already measured and stored. These models are fast in response and easy to be updated with new plant data. Usually, in ANN modeling, energy systems can also be simulated with fewer numbers of parameters compared to mathematical ones. Step-by-step method of the ANN model development of a coal-fired power plant for its base line operation is discussed in this paper. The ultimate objective of the work was to predict power output from a coal-fired plant by using the least number of controllable parameters as inputs. The paper describes two ANN models, one for boiler and one for turbine, which are eventually integrated into a single ANN model representing the real power plant. The two models are connected through main steam properties, which are the predicted parameters from boiler ANN model. Detailed procedure of ANN model development has been discussed along with the expected prediction accuracies and validation of models with real plant data. The interpolation and extrapolation capability of ANN models for the plant has also been studied, and observed results are reported.     

Realization of emergent behavior in collective autonomous mobile agents using an artificial neural network and a genetic algorithm

This paper proposes a pursuit system that utilizes the artificial life concept where autonomous mobile agents emulate the social behavior of animals and insects and realize their group behavior. Each agent contains sensors to perceive other agents in several directions, and decides its behavior based on the information obtained by these sensors. In this paper, a neural network is used for behavior decision controlling. The input of the neural network is decided by the existence of other agents, and the distance to the other agents. The output determines the directions in which the agent moves. The connection weight values of this neural network are encoded as genes, and the fitness individuals are determined using a genetic algorithm. Here, the fitness values imply how much group behavior adequately fit the goal and can express group behavior. The validity of the system is verified through simulation. Also in this paper, we have observed the agents emergent behavior during simulation.This paper was supported by WonKwang University in 2004.     

Prediction of vehicle reliability performance using artificial neural networks

Product development is an important but also dynamic, lengthy and risky phase in the life of a new product. The optimisation of the product development phase through extensive knowledge of the involved procedures is believed to reduce the risks and improve the final product quality. Artificial intelligence and expert systems have been used successfully in optimising the development phase of some new products as it will be demonstrated by the first sections of this publication. This paper presents the first module of an expert system, a neural network architecture that could predict the reliability performance of a vehicle at later stages of its life by using only information from a first inspection after the vehicle’s prototype production. The paper demonstrates how a tool like neural networks can be designed and optimised for use in reliability performance predictions. Also, this paper presents an optimisation methodology that enabled the neural network to deal with the limited amount of available training data, common during new product development, and to finally achieve acceptable prediction performance with small error. A case example is presented to demonstrate the methodology.     

Prediction of urban stormwater quality using artificial neural networks

There are a vast number of complex, interrelated processes influencing urban stormwater quality. However, the lack of measured fundamental variables prevents the construction of process-based models. Furthermore, hybrid models such as the buildup-washoff models are generally crude simplifications of reality. This has created the need for statistical models, capable of making use of the readily accessible data. In this paper, artificial neural networks (ANN) were used to predict stormwater quality at urbanized catchments located throughout the United States. Five constituents were analysed: chemical oxygen demand (COD), lead (Pb), suspended solids (SS), total Kjeldhal nitrogen (TKN) and total phosphorus (TP). Multiple linear regression equations were initially constructed upon logarithmically transformed data. Input variables were primarily selected using a stepwise regression approach, combined with process knowledge. Variables found significant in the regression models were then used to construct ANN models. Other important network parameters such as learning rate, momentum and the number of hidden nodes were optimized using a trial and error approach. The final ANN models were then compared with the multiple linear regression models. In summary, ANN models were generally less accurate than the regression models and more time consuming to construct. This infers that ANN models are not more applicable than regression models when predicting urban stormwater quality.