Using data linkage to generate 30-day crash-fatality adjustment factors for Taiwan

Different countries have their own police reporting time standards for counting the number of fatalities in reported crashes. A rapid estimation method (such as adjustment factor) for the comparison is important. The data-linkage technique was used to combine police-reported crash data and vital registration data, in order to generate 30-day fatality adjustment factors for various reporting time standards, which could also shed light on the fatal injury trend over time. The major findings were as follows. Firstly, a conservative 30-day fatality adjustment factor for the first day (or 24 h) would be 1.54 (or 1.35) in an area with a large motorcycle population, like Taiwan. This produced 20-40% higher 30-day fatalities than UK Transport Research Laboratory predicted, and 15-25% higher fatalities than those in Europe/Japan. Secondly, after excluding motorcycle impacts, the Taiwanese factors suggested 8-14% higher fatalities within 30 days than those in Europe/Japan. Third, motorcycle fatalities influenced the overall 30-day fatality trend within 3 days. In the future, both the police under-reporting problem and the motorcycle/overall fatal injury pattern within 3 days after crashing in developing countries like Taiwan merit further investigation.     

The kinematic features of motorcycles in congested urban networks

The aim of this paper is to compare the kinematic features of motorcycles with those of passenger cars in urban traffic. The hypothesis that motorcycles’ capability to swerve in urban traffic contributes to their seemingly assertive behaviour is examined. Data for this study were collected in afternoon peak hours at Central London using video recorders. Detailed information on the trajectories of 2109 vehicles (including 477 motorcycles and 1293 passenger cars) was extracted from the video images and the observable kinematic features were analysed. In addition, a model describing the longitudinal following behaviour of motorcycles was employed to analyse the impacts of motorcycles’ swerving behaviour. The model was calibrated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) numerical methods. The observable kinematic features show that in comparison to passenger cars, motorcycles have shorter safety gaps, higher speeds and severer acceleration and deceleration rates reflecting their generally much higher power to weight ratios and usage of available braking power. However, the data also support the hypothesis that motorcyclists maintain a considerable safety margin as they have the ability to avoid a collision by swerving away.     

Role of sensory and cognitive conspicuity in the prevention of collisions between motorcycles and trucks at T-intersections

Motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable to injury in crashes with heavy vehicles due to substantial differences in vehicle mass, the degree of protection and speed. There is a considerable difference in height between motorcycles and trucks; motorcycles are viewed by truck drivers from downward angles, and shorter distances between them mean steeper downward angles. Hence, we anticipated that the effects of motorcycle conspicuity treatments would be different for truck drivers. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the effects of motorcycle conspicuity treatments on the identification and detection of motorcycles by truck drivers. Two complementary experiments were performed; the first experiment assessed the impact of motorcycle sensory conspicuity on the ability of un-alerted truck drivers to detect motorcycles, and the second experiment assessed the motorcycle cognitive conspicuity to alerted truck drivers. The sensory conspicuity was measured in terms of motorcycle detection rates by un-alerted truck drivers when they were not anticipating a motorcycle within a realistic driving scene, while the cognitive conspicuity was determined by the time taken by alerted truck drivers to actively search for a motorcycle. In the first experiment, the participants were presented with 10 pictures and were instructed to report the kinds of vehicles that were presented in the pictures. Each picture was shown to the participants for 600 ms. In the second experiment, the participants were presented with the same set of pictures and were instructed to respond by clicking the right button on a mouse as soon as they detected a motorcycle in the picture. The results indicate that the motorcycle detection rate increases, and the response time to search for a motorcycle decreases, as the distance between the targeted motorcycle and the viewer decreases. This is true regardless of the type of conspicuity treatment used. The use of daytime running headlights (DRH) was found to increase the detection rate and the identification of a motorcycle by a truck driver at a farther distance, but effect deteriorates as the distance decreases. The results show that the detection rate and the identification of a motorcyclist wearing a black helmet with a reflective sticker increases as the distance between the motorcycle and the truck decreases. We also found that a motorcyclist wearing a white helmet and a white outfit is more identifiable and detectable at both shorter and longer distances. In conclusion, although this study provides evidence that the use of appropriate conspicuity treatments enhances motorcycle conspicuity to truck drivers, we suggest that more attention should be paid to the effect of background environment on motorcycle conspicuity.     

Judgments of approach speed for motorcycles across different lighting levels and the effect of an improved tri-headlight configuration

The misperception of vehicle approach speed is a key contributory factor to road traffic crash involvement. Past research has indicated that individuals use the rate of visual looming to calculate the time to passage (TTP) of a vehicle, and that smaller vehicles loom to a lesser extent than larger vehicles. Despite a disproportionate number of fatal injuries occurring on the road after dark, and a higher than average number of accidents involving automobile drivers violating the right of way of a motorcyclist occurring in low light conditions, there has been very little consideration of the accuracy of TTP for smaller and larger vehicles under low levels of luminance. We investigated drivers’ judgments of motorcycle and car approach speeds across a number of levels of luminance within a virtual city scene, as well as the effectiveness of a tri-headlight formation on motorcycle speed judgments. The accuracy of car approach speed judgments were not affected by changes in lighting conditions, but speed judgments for the solo headlight motorcycle became significantly less accurate as lighting reduced in the early night and night-time conditions. Incorporation of a tri-headlight formation onto the standard motorcycle frame resulted in improved accuracy of approach speed judgments, relative to the solo headlight motorcycle, as ambient light levels reduced. The practical implications of the findings are discussed in terms of road safety and motorcycle design.     

Increasing motorcycles attention and search conspicuity by using Alternating-Blinking Lights System (ABLS)

Poor conspicuity of Powered Two-Wheelers (PTW) is one of the main factors contributing to their involvement in accidents. The current study examined the influence of different rider's outfits on PTWs’ detectability, and evaluated the potential of a unique Alternating-Blinking Lights System (ABLS) to increase the rider's conspicuity. This study included two experiments that examined the visual search involved in the process of scanning video clips of dynamic traffic scenes. The first experiment examined PTWs’ attention conspicuity, while the second evaluated PTWs’ search conspicuity. In the attention conspicuity experiment participants were not alerted to the possible presence of a PTW and were asked to report the types of vehicles that were present in each video clip. In the search conspicuity experiment the participants were asked to actively search for a PTW and report its presence or absence in each video clip. Every participant was presented with a series of 96 video clips, 48 with a PTW and 48 without (controls). The independent variables were: (i) level of ambient illumination, (ii) road type, (iii) PTW's initial distance from the viewer, and (iv) rider's outfit. The results of the attention conspicuity experiment indicated that the environmental context has a strong effect on the probability of detecting the PTW. The ABLS increased the PTWs’ attention conspicuity by moderating the effects of environmental context, and was most effective at dusk and in urban environments. The results of the search experiment indicated that detection rates decreased and reaction time (RT) increased as the level of luminance decreased. RT was shortest with the ABLS across all driving environments. The ABLS increased PTWs detection rates in both experiments and mitigated the difference in detection rates between the attention and search conspicuity experiments. The results indicated that the ABLS was the most potent conspicuity treatment of the ones evaluated in this study. In conclusion, PTW conspicuity should be enhanced by incorporating aspects of both attention and search conspicuity. The riders need to take into consideration the perceptual characteristics of their riding environment, and be equipped with a conspicuity aid that is less susceptible to the changing environment and provides the rider with a unique visual signature. In parallel, the expectancy of car drivers to the presence of PTWs should be increased.     

Errors in judging the approach rate of motorcycles in nighttime conditions and the effect of an improved lighting configuration

One of the key contributory factors for accident involvement is misjudgment of approach speed (Department for Transport, 2010). Past research has indicated that individuals can use the rate of visual looming in order to the judge time to passage (TTP) of approaching vehicles, and that smaller vehicles loom to a lesser extent than larger vehicles (e.g., Horswill et al., 2005). However, the judgment of TTP in nighttime conditions has received little attention. This paper explores drivers’ abilities to make judgments of motorcycles and car approach speeds in nighttime driving conditions, when only the headlights are visible, as well as the effectiveness of a tri-headlight configuration on the accuracy of motorcycle speed judgments. Results showed that individuals were significantly more accurate at judging the speed of two car headlights compared with the standard solo headlight motorcycle. However, the inclusion of a tri-headlight formation on a standard motorcycle frame significantly improved these judgments. A further investigation demonstrated that tri-headlight configurations with separation between headlights on the horizontal and vertical axes are most effective for yielding accurate speed judgments. The implications of the results for road safety and motorcycle design are discussed.     

Influence of front light configuration on the visual conspicuity of motorcycles

A recent study (Cavallo and Pinto, 2012) showed that daytime running lights (DRLs) on cars create “visual noise” that interferes with the lighting of motorcycles and affects their visual conspicuity. In the present experiment, we tested three conspicuity enhancements designed to improve motorcycle detectability in a car-DRL environment: a triangle configuration (a central headlight plus two lights located on the rearview mirrors), a helmet configuration (a light located on the motorcyclist's helmet in addition to the central headlight), and a single central yellow headlight. These three front-light configurations were evaluated in comparison to the standard configuration (a single central white headlight). Photographs representing complex urban traffic scenes were presented briefly (for 250 ms). The results revealed better motorcycle-detection performance for both the yellow headlight and the helmet configuration than for the standard configuration. The findings suggest some avenues for defining a new visual signature for motorcycles in car-DRL environments.     

Use of Cognitive Work Analysis for exploration of safety management in the operation of motorcycles and scooters

The risk of accident, injury and death is disproportionately higher for motorcycle riders than for motorists. In this paper, we investigate strategies of safety management associated with operation of powered two-wheel vehicles (motorcycles and scooters). Accident prevention is most often driven by an epidemiological approach that investigates the risk factors associated with accidents. By focusing on risk factors, these types of studies fail to examine the strengths of the system in any depth. In this paper we employ an ethnographic approach structured by reference to the framework of Cognitive Work Analysis, to identify how riders of powered two-wheel vehicles manage their own safety and the safety of others. We anticipate that this research will open up a rich, relatively untapped, area for exploration of safety interventions.     

Validity of using linked hospital and police traffic crash records to analyse motorcycle injury crash characteristics

Linking hospital discharge and police traffic crash records has been used to provide information on causes and outcomes for hospitalised traffic crash cases. Motorcyclists are particularly vulnerable to injury in a traffic crash, but no published linkage studies have reported in detail on this road user group. The present study examined motorcycle traffic crash injury cases in New Zealand in 2000–2004 by probabilistically linking national hospital discharge records with police traffic crash reports. Injury cases had to have spent at least one night in hospital before being discharged and were defined as serious or moderate based on their International Classification of Disease Injury Severity Scores (ICISS). Despite a robust linkage process, only 46% of cases could be linked to a police record; 60% of the serious injuries and 41% of the moderate. The low linkage was most likely due to under-reporting of crashes to or by the police. While moderate injury cases were expected to be under-reported, the level of under-reporting of cases with serious threat-to-life injuries is concerning. To assess whether the linked dataset could provide valid information on the crash circumstances and injury outcomes of hospitalised motorcycle crash cases, the characteristics of the linked and unlinked hospital discharge cases were compared using chi-square tests and multivariate logistic regression. Serious injury cases were less likely to be linked if only one vehicle was involved, or the injured riders and passengers were younger than 20 years or spent less than one week in hospital. For moderate injury cases, there were also differences in linkage by injured body region and crash month. While these discrepancies need to taken into consideration when interpreting results, the linked hospital-police dataset has the potential to provide insights into motorcycle crash circumstances and outcomes not otherwise obtainable.     

The rising burden of serious thoracic trauma sustained by motorcyclists in road traffic crashes

In many countries increased on-road motorcycling participation has contributed to increased motorcyclist morbidity and mortality over recent decades. Improved helmet technologies and increased helmet wearing rates have contributed to reductions in serious head injuries, to the point where in many regions thoracic injury is now the most frequently occurring serious injury. However, few advances have been made in reducing the severity of motorcyclist thoracic injury. The aim of the present study is to provide needed information regarding serious motorcyclist thoracic trauma, to assist motorcycling groups, road safety advocates and road authorities develop and prioritise counter-measures and ultimately reduce the rising trauma burden. For this purpose, a data collection of linked police-reported and hospital data was established, and considerable attention was given to establishing a weighting procedure to estimate hospital cases not reported to police and fatal cases not admitted to hospital. The resulting data collection of an estimated 19,979 hospitalised motorcyclists is used to provide detailed information on the nature, incidence and risk factors for thoracic trauma. Over the last decade the incidence of motorcyclist serious thoracic injury has more than doubled in the population considered, and by 2011 while motorcycles comprised 3.2% of the registered vehicle fleet, one quarter of road traffic-related serious thoracic trauma cases treated in hospitals were motorcyclists. Motor-vehicle collisions, fixed object collisions and non-collision crashes were fairly evenly represented amongst these cases, while older motorcyclists were over-represented. Several prevention strategies are identified and discussed.     

Estimating the human recovery costs of seriously injured road crash casualties

Road crashes result in substantial trauma and costs to societies around the world. Robust costing methods are an important tool to estimate costs associated with road trauma, and are key inputs into policy development and cost–benefit analysis for road safety programmes and infrastructure projects. With an expanding focus on seriously injured road crash casualties, in addition to the long standing focus on fatalities, methods for costing seriously injured casualties are becoming increasingly important. Some road safety agencies are defining a seriously injured casualty as an individual that was admitted to hospital following a road crash, and as a result, hospital separation data provide substantial potential for estimating the costs associated with seriously injured road crash casualties. The aim of this study is to establish techniques for estimating the human recovery costs of (non-fatal) seriously injured road crash casualties directly from hospital separation data. An individuals’ road crash-related hospitalisation record and their personal injury insurance claim were linked for road crashes that occurred in New South Wales, Australia. These records provided the means for estimating all of the costs to the casualty directly related to their recovery from their injuries. A total of 10,897 seriously injured road crash casualties were identified and four methods for estimating their recovery costs were examined, using either unit record or aggregated hospital separation data. The methods are shown to provide robust techniques for estimating the human recovery costs of seriously injured road crash casualties, that may prove useful for identifying, implementing and evaluating safety programmes intended to reduce the incidence of road crash-related serious injuries.     

A longitudinal study of risk factors for motorcycle crashes among junior college students in Taiwan

A cohort of 4729 junior college students in an urban and a rural area in Taiwan was followed up for a period of 20 months. Students' characteristics, including riding exposures, as well as human, vehicular, and environmental factors were collected using one initial and three follow-up questionnaires. The Anderson-Gill (AG) multiplicative intensity model was used to determine the risk of a motorcycle crash over time while also allowing for the modeling of multiple events. The average response rate for the four assessments was 92%. The adjusted relative hazard (RH) for students living in the rural as opposed to the urban area for crashes was 1.67 at the beginning of the study but decreased to 0.66 by the end. Past motorcycle crash history, number of riding days, average riding distance, risk-taking level, alcohol consumption, and traffic violations were all significantly associated with an increased risk of being involved in a crash. Conversely, increasing age, riding experience, and automobile licensure were related to a decreased risk of crashing. Furthermore, helmet use was not independently related to the risk of crashing. In conclusion, a high-risk group predisposed to involvement in a motorcycle crash, including both non-injury and injury-related crashes, can be identified using selected risk factors for crash prevention among young riders.     

Association between setting quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction

Since the 1980s, many countries have set quantified road safety targets as part of their comprehensive road safety strategies. This paper studies the association between the setting of quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction over the past two decades. Both aggregate and disaggregate levels of hypothesis tests are performed on data from 14 countries that set road safety targets during the period 1981-1999. A before-and-after analysis of the treatment and comparison groups is conducted, and the results show that the majority of countries with quantified road safety targets experienced a reduction in road fatalities in this period. Overall, the establishment of quantified road safety targets is found to have an appreciable association with an improvement in road safety.     

Economic development's effect on road transport-related mortality among different types of road users: a cross-sectional international study

The relationship between a country's stage of economic development and its motor vehicle crash (MVC) mortality rate is not defined for different road users. This paper presents a cross-sectional regression analysis of recent national mortality in 44 countries using death certificate data provided by the World Health Organization. For five types of road users, MVC mortality is expressed as deaths per 100,000 people and per 1000 motor vehicles. Economic development is measured as gross national income (GNI) per capita in U.S. dollars and as motor vehicles per 1000 people. Results showed overall MVC mortality peaked among low-income countries at about US$ 2000 GNI per capita and at about 100 motor vehicles per 1000 people. Overall mortality declined at higher national incomes up to about US$ 24,000. Most changes in MVC mortality associated with economic development were explained by changes in rates among nonmotorized travelers, especially pedestrians. Overall MVC rates were lowest when pedestrian exposure was low because there were few motor vehicles or few pedestrians, and were highest during a critical transition to motorized travel, when many pedestrians and other vulnerable road users vied for use of the roadways with many motor vehicles.     

Traffic safety among motorcyclists in Norway: A study of subgroups and risk factors

Although it is widely recognized that motorcyclists have a particularly high accident risk, our knowledge of the mechanisms producing this accident risk is incomplete. The aims of the present paper are to identify subgroups of motorcyclists with a particularly high accident risk and to identify the relevant risk factors at work. The study presented in this paper relies both on a questionnaire (N = 3356) relating rider characteristics, behaviors and accident risk, and analyses of fatal motorcycle accidents (ca. 100) from 2005 to 2008 in Norway. The results reveal that riders of racing replica bikes (sport bikes), and riders younger than 19 years, including especially youths (16–17 years) riding light motorcycles (≤125 cm³), are subgroups of Norwegian motorcyclists with particularly high accident risks. Analysis of fatal motorcycle accidents reveals that about half of the fatal accidents involve sport bikes. Nearly all fatal accidents with sport bikes involved excessive speed. The combination of low age, low experience, risky behavior and “unsafe” attitudes seems to be a particular potent risk factor for Norwegian motorcyclists.     

Assessment of missile hazards: evaluation of the fragment number and drag factors

An approach was proposed for the assessment of the expected number and drag factor of fragments generated in the collapse of a vessel due to internal pressure. The analysis of a database reporting data on more than 140 vessel fragmentation events allowed the identification of a limited number of fragment reference shapes. The correlation of fragment reference shapes to the vessel credible fragmentation patterns allowed the assessment of the expected number and reference shape of fragments generated. Starting from the fragment reference shapes identified, simplified functions for drag factor calculation were developed, based on few geometrical parameters of the vessel undergoing the fragmentation event. The probabilistic models for the expected shape and number of fragments generated and the simplified drag factor functions developed may constitute an important input for the analysis of the possible fragment trajectories in the framework of missile hazard assessment.     

An update on the association between setting quantified road safety targets and road fatality reduction

This note is intended to rectify estimates provided in a previous paper (Wong et al., 2006) of the short-term effectiveness in terms of road fatality reduction of the setting of quantified road safety targets using data from 14 OECD countries during the period 1980–1999. This work is important in measuring the association between target setting and road safety improvement, because such targets are intended to serve as a useful tool to motivate timely road safety measures by the road authorities and others. The estimates to be rectified were based on before-and-after analysis using a comparison group of countries for each country that had set a target. This note first provides a correction to the qualification test for the inclusion of a country in any particular comparison group. It then presents the numerical effects of this correction on the estimates of the effectiveness of setting quantified road safety targets, both in individual countries and across the whole group of countries that set targets in the relevant period. Finally, impacts on the findings of the previous paper are discussed, with the conclusion that the changes in those of the numerical estimates that are affected do not alter the main message of the paper.     

Barriers to, and factors associated, with observed motorcycle helmet use in Vietnam

This study investigated barriers to, and factors associated with, observed motorcycle helmet use among motorcyclists in Hai Duong Province, Vietnam. The findings highlighted an array of factors associated with observed helmet use namely, support for universal helmet legislation and a positive attitude towards what might be perceived as negative attributes of helmet use such as inconvenience and discomfort in hot weather. As well, older age (greater than 25 years in age), riding on a compulsory road, being a driver, trips of greater than 10 km, higher levels of education (having a university degree and higher) were found to be key determinants of helmet use. Despite over 95% of motorcyclists disagreeing with the statement that wearing a helmet does not reduce the severity of head injury in a crash, most motorcyclists believed that helmets did not need to be worn for a short trip. Overall, only 23% of motorcyclists were observed wearing a helmet. The authors conclude that efforts to increase helmet use need to focus on the necessity for universal helmet legislation in association with identifying solutions to reduce the negative attitudes towards helmet use.     

The association between price of regular-grade gasoline and injury and mortality rates among occupants involved in motorcycle- and automobile-related motor vehicle collisions

Motorcyclists have been reported to be more likely to die in a motor vehicle collision (MVC) than automobile occupants. With the recent increase in the pump price of gasoline, it has been reported that people are switching to motorcycles as main modes of transportation. This study evaluated the association between motor vehicle collision-related injury and mortality rates and increases in gasoline prices for occupants of automobiles and riders of motorcycles.There were an estimated 1,270,512 motorcycle MVC and 238,390,853 automobile MVC involved occupants in the U.S. from 1992 to 2007. Higher gasoline prices were associated with increased motorcycle-related injuries and deaths; however, this association no longer remained after accounting for changes in the number of registered vehicles.The current study observed that, while the number of injuries and fatalities in motorcycle-related MVCs increase with increasing gasoline price, rates remained largely unchanged. This suggests that the observed increase in motorcycle-related injuries and fatalities with increasing gasoline price is more a factor of the number of motorcycles on the road rather than operator characteristics.     

Analysis of factors that increase motorcycle rider risk compared to car driver risk

As in other parts of the Western world, there is concern in New Zealand about increasing popularity of motorcycles because of potential increases in road trauma. This study sought to identify important factors associated with increased risk for motorcyclists to inform potential policy approaches to reduce motorcyclist injury, such as changes to motorcyclist licensing, training and education. Using data extracted from a register of all New Zealand licensed motor vehicles that were matched to crash data, statistical models were fitted to examine patterns of motorcycle risk in comparison with small cars. These showed generally elevated risks for motorcyclists compared to cars, but particularly elevated risks for motorcycle owners aged in their 20s or who lived in more urbanised settings. In crashes, motorcyclists have little protection from injury, putting the motorcyclist at high risk of injury. When comparing new motorcycles with new cars, the odds of fatal or serious injury to a motorcycle rider involved in an injury crash were almost eight times the odds for a car driver.