Public concern over global warming correlates negatively with national wealth

It has been shown previously that the awareness and concern of the general public about global warming is not only a function of scientific information. Both psychological and sociological factors affect the willingness of laypeople to acknowledge the reality of global warming, and to support climate policies of their home countries. In this paper, I analyse a cross-national dataset of public concern about global warming, utilising data from 46 countries. Based on earlier results at the national and regional level, I expect concern to be negatively correlated to national measures of wealth and carbon dioxide emissions. I find that gross domestic product is indeed negatively correlated to the proportion of a population that regards global warming as a serious problem. There is also a marginally significant tendency that nations’ per capita carbon dioxide emissions are negatively correlated to public concern. These findings suggest that the willingness of a nation to contribute to reductions in greenhouse gas emissions decreases with its share of these emissions. This is in accordance with psychological findings, but poses a problem for political decision-makers. When communicating with the public, scientists ought to be aware of their responsibility to use a language that is understood by laypeople.     

American evangelicals and global warming

American evangelicals have long played a significant role in American culture and politics. Drawing from a nationally representative survey, this article describes American evangelicals’ global warming risk assessments and policy preferences and tests several theory-based factors hypothesized to influence their views. American evangelicals are less likely than non-evangelicals to believe that global warming is happening, caused mostly by human activities, and causing serious harm, yet a majority of evangelicals are concerned about climate change and support a range of climate change and energy related policies. Multiple regression analyses found that the combination of biospheric, altruistic, and egoistic value orientations is a more significant predictor of evangelicals’ risk assessments and policy support than negative affect, egalitarian or individualistic worldviews, or socio-demographic variables.     

地球能量失衡与全球变暖

地球系统能量收支平衡即能量守恒,在大气顶部,入射的太阳辐射与出射辐射(包括反射的太阳辐射和地气系统发射的长波辐射)基本平衡.但是近百年来人类活动向大气排放的温室气体明显增加,例如CO2从工业革命前(1750年)的280×10-6,到2019年的(410±0.2)×10-6,增加148％;CH4和N2O增加了260％和1...     

Framework for integrated assessments of global warming impacts

This paper provides a framework for integrated assessment of the impacts of climate change on natural resources and sets the stage for papers that follow in this volume. Integrated assessments are used to organize large quantities of technical information bearing on complex issues (environmental and others) in ways that facilitate application of the information in decision making and policy setting. Any integrated assessment must be based on the best available information. For that reason this paper includes a ‘primer’ on the current (and presumably best available) understanding of the science underlying climatic change. The remainder of the paper describes the component parts of one possible framework for integrated assessment.     

Public perceptions of global warming

In this paper, we examine the way public opinion responds to the prospect of global warming. In particular, we focus on the public's willingness to pay in order to prevent various hypothetical climate scenarios from transpiring. To this end, fractional factorial survey methods are employed with a sample of over 600 residents of Southern California. By and large, the public is able to understand and evaluate rather complicated hypothetical climate scenarios, but the public appreciates some features of climate far better than others. In this context, the contingent valuation estimates we provide, while promising, are clearly not ready of consideration by policy makers.     

全球变暖中的科学问题

2013年各国政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第一工作组发布了第五次气候变化科学评估报告,以大量的观测分析和气候模式模拟证据,继续强调由于人类排放增加,全球正在变暖,未来将继续变暖的观点。本文综述研究全球变暖的几个深层次的科学问题,即多套全球气温观测资料的差异、不同标准气候态时段的作用、20世纪全球变暖的检测和归因及未来全球气温变化的走向,以此提出需进一步研究的科学问题。结果表明;需要进一步提高观测资料的质量;注意不同标准气候态时段对应的数值的不同;应进一步改善气候模式模拟年代际变率的能力及研究近15 a全球变暖减缓和停滞的原因,从而改善气候模式的模拟效果;造成预估未来全球气候变化的不确定性主要来自气候模式的差异、未来排放情景的差异及气候系统内部变率影响和自然外强迫的作用。     

Vegetation feedback under future global warming

It has been well documented that vegetation plays an important role in the climate system. However, vegetation is typically kept constant when climate models are used to project anthropogenic climate change under a range of emission scenarios in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios. Here, an atmospheric general circulation model, and an asynchronously coupled system of an atmospheric and an equilibrium terrestrial biosphere model are forced by monthly sea surface temperature and sea ice extent for the periods 2051?C2060 and 2090?C2098 as projected with 17 atmosphere?Cocean general circulation models participating in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, and by appropriate atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations under the A2 emission scenario. The effects of vegetation feedback under future global warming are then investigated. It is found that the simulated composition and distribution of vegetation during 2051?C2060 (2090?C2098) differ greatly from the present, and global vegetation tends to become denser as expressed by a 21% (36%) increase in global mean leaf area index, which is most pronounced at the middle and high northern latitudes. Vegetation feedback has little effect on globally averaged surface temperature. On a regional scale, however, it induces statistically significant changes in surface temperature, in particular over most parts of continental Eurasia east of about 60°E where annual surface temperature is expected to increase by 0.1?C1.0?K, with an average of about 0.4?K for each future period. These changes can mostly be explained by changes in surface albedo resulting from vegetation changes in the context of future global warming.     

Effect test of predicting global warming北大核心CSCD

[No abstract available]     

Creating a global warming implementation regime

This paper proposes a global warming implementation regime which addresses the issues of equity, flexibility, cost minimization, and population growth. Previously proposed international policy instruments, such as country by country targets, carbon taxes, and tradable permits, face major difficulties as stand alone proposals. The key element of the regime proposed here is to combine annual tradable permits which are allocated based on population in a fixed year with a small carbon tax ($5–10/tonne) on emissions in excess of permits. Both permits and carbon taxes are applied to national level governments, which in turn would use whatever mix of policies desired to reduce national emissions. It is suggested that the initial number of permits correspond to total global emissions in the base year; over time, the number of permits could be reduced and the tax rate increased if improved scientific knowledge so dictates. By allocating permits based on population the equity concerns of developing countries are addressed, while taxing emissions in excess of permit holdings removes the rigidity of a quota system and limits resource transfers by effectively capping the permit trading price, which is a major concern of industrialized countries. To accommodate the difficulties of countries which have not yet achieved the demographic transition, the permit allocation scheme could be subject to a one-time adjustment after 10–15 years based on some weighting of the initial and then-current populations. The proposed scheme is based on the premise that there is a large potential for reducing emissions in developed countries or limiting emission increases in developing countries, and the intention is to create competition between national level governments in implementing cost-effective emission reduction.     

全球变暖的有序适应问题

1 引言\n近百年全球变暖已是不争的事实。 其原因有不同说法, 但绝大多数科学家认为和人类活动有关。 例如, 建立在各国研究成果基础上的政府间气候工作组评估报告认为, 近代全球变暖主要是人类活动排放大量二氧化碳等大气温室气体所造成的（IPCC,2007）。观测证据显示,目前人类活动排放及大气温室气体的增长趋势仍在持续。由于大气中二氧化碳具有较长存在寿命以及海洋系统的热惯性等原因,即使现在就停止各种排放活动, 导致全球变暖的强迫力仍将在未来相当长时期内持续下去。因此,全球变暖作为一个事实已成为越来越多决策者必须考虑的问题。 近年来频繁地出现在G8和G20等国家[CM(22]首脑会议的议程中的一个议题就是： 应对全球[CM)]变暖。\n由于涉及各国经济发展利益,如何应对全球变暖已不是一个单纯的科学问题。目前很多国家\n已开始重视减排以及清洁能源的发展和利用问题,因而有了联合国主持的巴厘岛会议。这是象征各国政府共同意识到必须协调全球人类活动的一次重要会议。然而,即使仅从科学研究角度提出如何适应全球变暖问题,目前科学界却并无明确的解决思路。\n　　工业革命以来,人类在经济利益驱动下的大规模而无序的生产活动,导致大量大气温室气体排放促成当前的全球变暖。这可被视为人类历史上一次大规模无序活动影响全球气候系统的例证（叶笃正等,2001）。全球变暖已对各地产生了重大影响,就如何适应全球变暖而言,现在我们面临潜在的又一波无序的人类活动,即各国以维护本国利益为主导来展开适应全球变暖的行动。显然,各国都会尽量利用其正面影响,想方设法减轻或消除其负面影响。直接后果是导致各国当地经济和气候环境变化。然而,没有一个国家是封闭的,它的经济发展必然和其他地区有关。气候环境更是如此,一地的气候变化会影响到其他地区。因而,各国各行其是的后果是否导致人类整体利益的更大损害,不得而知。为避免新的一波人类无序活动所可能产生的不利影响,开展相应的科学研究,并在此基础上协调各国以形成全球有序适应,是有益的。\n　　在此,我们提出构建全球有序适应的一个思路。\n　　首先,需要开展更为全面的地球系统科学模拟研究,把人类活动作为地球系统中一个相互作用的组成部分,研究全球气候环境的演变（叶笃正,季劲钧,1998;叶笃正等,2009）。目前很多国家及一些国际科学计划已在开展关于全球变暖对各地经济发展的影响和适应研究,部分地反映在IPCC系列报告中。进而有必要在此研究基础上,发展模型模拟各种虚拟的适应方案,和由此导致的各种进一步的气候环境变化,及其对于各地社会和经济的反馈影响。这个虚拟试验研究应该由有关国际组织（如世界气象组织WMO）来组织实施,通过比较分析各种试验结果,总结出最有利于全球各地整体利益的几个最佳适应方案。这就是理想的全球有序适应方案。\n对于某些国家来说, 全球有序适应方案也可能会导致某些经济利益的损失。诚如此言,就涉及科学层面以外的国家利益问题了。 因此, 全球有序适应的实施必须通过有关国际机构（如联合国）来调控。 如果某些国家因参与全球有序适应而受到利益损失, 可以由其他国家（通过联合国某种基金的形式）来给予补偿。 目前国际社会在应对全球变暖问题方面尚缺乏整体措施, 亟待各国科学家以及其他[CM(22]有关力量协作,在国际层面达成共识并尽快付诸行动。\n　　需要指出,全球有序适应（adaptation）并不排斥减排措施（mitigation）。在执行各种国际减排公约的同时,各国应有序适应全球变暖。即要强调全球整体的发展和可持续性,达到整体利益的最佳,而非某个国家或地区局部的最佳。     

Sensitivity of global warming to the pattern of tropical ocean warming

The current generations of climate models are in substantial disagreement as to the projected patterns of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Tropics over the next several decades. We show that the spatial patterns of tropical ocean temperature trends have a strong influence on global mean temperature and precipitation and on global mean radiative forcing. We identify the SST patterns with the greatest influence on the global mean climate and find very different, and often opposing, sensitivities to SST changes in the tropical Indian and West Pacific Oceans. Our work stresses the need to reduce climate model biases in these sensitive regions, as they not only affect the regional climates of the nearby densely populated continents, but also have a disproportionately large effect on the global climate.

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全球变暖在5个圈层的证据

1 观测到的全球变暖 世界气象组织(WMO)2020年全球气候状况报告 [1]给出,2020年较1850—1900年变暖(1.2±0.1)℃,是自有观测记录以来3个最暖的年之一(2016,2019,2020年),而2016—2020年和2011—2020年分别是有观测记录以来最暖的5年和最暖的10年.注意到,2020年...     

Introducing population-adjusted historical contributions to global warming

The 1997 Brazilian Proposal suggested that differentiated emissions reduction targets for Annex I parties of the UNFCCC should be based on the impact of their historic greenhouse gas emissions on global temperature rise. In this paper, we develop methodologies for (and undertake) population-adjusted historical responsibility calculations. These adjust national-level historical responsibility calculations for historical population trends. We find a weak correlation between current per capita emissions levels and population-adjusted historical responsibility. Our calculations may contribute to burden sharing schemes in future climate agreements.     

全球气候变暖背景下索马里急流变化的预估研究

索马里急流的变化对亚洲季风和气候变动具有重要的影响,未来索马里急流到底会如何演变？如何受全球变暖的影响？针对这个问题,文中利用IPCC第四次评估报告（IPCC AR4）的多个海气耦合模式的模拟结果,评估了多个模式在当前气候（20C3M）条件下对夏季低空索马里急流的模拟能力;预估模式在SRESA2排放情景下对21世纪（2010—2099）的索马里急流变化。研究结果表明,18个模式在现代气候条件下对索马里急流有较好的模拟能力;18个模式的集合平均结果预测夏季索马里低空急流在21世纪的变化过程是：初期（2010—2040）增强至减弱,中期（2050—2060）增加至最强,末期（2070—2090）减至最弱。与现代气候条件模拟结果相比,夏季索马里低空急流在未来气候变暖背景条件下是趋于减弱的过程,在21世纪末期最弱。研究还表明了夏季低空索马里急流的变化幅度与全球平均气温的变化幅度是一个非线性的关系,各模式对二者关系的描述存在不确定性,鉴于索马里急流对印度季风和东亚季风及中国气候的重要性,索马里急流的变化规律和未来演变是科学界特别需要深入研究的问题。