木工企业生产规模的优化决策研究

本文从企业与环境关系相互协调的角度出发，分析讨论了木材加工与综合利用利用企业的生产规模问题，探讨并提出了其决策模式．为实现此类企业生产规模决策优化，提供了一种有效的方法和途径．     

胶合板生产的管理优化分析

运用系统优化设计与决策理论及方法,针对目前我国胶合板企业的生产状况,对生产过程中的管理决策进行探讨.分析如何进行企业产品定位、质量跟踪及反馈;描述生产管理数据库的建立,提出了多种类型产品混合生产的优化管理模式及两种适合胶合板企业决策的方法.     

企业经营与决策的参考-浅谈档案在企业发展中的作用

在现代化科学管理中,信息是企业经营决策的先决条件,如能及时、准确、全面、系统地提供与企业生产经营有关的信息,领导就能做出科学的决策,就能使企业立于不败之地。而档案就是一种丰富广泛的信息资源,它记载了企业各项活动和管理工作的情况、成功经验和教训,从自然资源、生产手段到计划管理和生产技术等方面的信息,都可以作为企业经营与决策的科学依据和参考资料。档案是企业发展和振兴的重要因素,在企业发展中起着重要的作用,体现在企业生产经营的各个方面。１为企业领导决策服务在一切工作中,决策正确是其成功的根本保证,要做…     

碳审计下减排利益相关者行为决策博弈分析

作为一种减排监督机制,碳审计具有约束生产企业减排行为决策的作用,而不同的碳审计模式具有不同的约束效果。由此,在生产企业减排过程中,何种模式能有效地规避其碳排放不合规的行为,成为了亟待解决的问题。以博弈论为基础,分析了减排利益相关者间的行为决策。研究发现：无碳审计模式难以具有约束生产企业碳排放不合规行为的作用;在政府实施碳审计的模式下,其实施碳审计的时效性较差,削弱了碳审计对碳排放不合规行为的约束力。在政府鼓励经销商实施碳审计的模式下,经销商与生产企业在不同博弈阶段有不同的行为决策,可以提高碳审计对碳排放不合规行为的约束力。     

基于GIS技术的森林经营优化与辅助决策系统

森林经营是一种战略性的、长远的规划 ,是一项复杂的系统工程 ,必须考虑其全局性、长远性和针对性 ,为使森林经营方案更为科学、实用、可行 ,满足林业经营管理的需要 ,基于GIS的经营优化与辅助决策系统是编制森林经营方案的一种有效方法和途径。系统以Citys tar软件和VisualFoxpro为平台 ,以Powerbuilder为开发语言 ,利用OLE/ODBC技术进行系统集成 ,建立森林经营优化与辅助决策系统 ,包括数据库管理、优化与辅助决策、图形制作 3个子系统 ,为森林经营方案的编制及生产管理、技术管理、计划管理提供了有效的工具     

因果——优序图法在林化企业中的应用

<正> 一、问题的提出生产管理是企业管理中的重要一环。管理工作离不开决策,把握决策对象的特性、普遍和特殊规律,增强决策的科学性,提高决策水平,是目前企业管理,特别是生产管理中存在的亟待解决的问题。本文描述的因果——优序图法旨在林化企业生产管理中采用定量化分析的方法,努力找出影响结果(如产品的产量和质量等)的原因(包含可测和不可测的),并     

森林火灾扑救智能决策支持系统

介绍了一种森林火灾扑救智能决策支持系统的结构、开发原理以及模型建立,同时提出了资源竞争决策的思想。资源竞争决策是一种能够应用于智能决策支持系统中的复杂的决策方法,具有应用领域广、适应性强、资源有效利用率高、评价机制完善等特点。     

以质量求生存努力开创我省松香生产的新局面

在国际国内松香市场供过于求,我省松香生产技术经济劣势客观形势下,还要不要坚持发挥松香生产优势决策?怎样发展松香生产?这将是必须回答和解决的一个问题。一、正确理解优势、坚持决策与实施的统一。松香和紫胶是我省的优势之一。最近几年随着省委关于发挥松香生产优势方针的确定和政策的调查,我省松香生产确有较大发展。全省现有松香生产设备55套,国营松香企业32     

Excel 200O在林业生产经营决策中的应用

林业生产中经常遇到经营决策问题,科学的决策可使成本最小,利润最大.本文详细介绍了Excel 2000在林业生产经营决策中应用技巧.     

第六讲 灰色统计层次决策和灰色聚类

一、灰色统计层次决策灰色统计层次决策是统一归纳全局不同层次对各种决策方案决策量的一种统计决策方法。设i=Ⅰ,Ⅱ,…N表示不同层次参加决策的群体;j=1~#,2~#,…m~#表示开发产品的项目(或称决策方案);k=1,2,…p表示决策量(或称投资水平)。记d_ij为第i层次对开发第j种产品所提成的投资量(即决策量),它表示我们首先要了解不同决策层对开发某种产品所提成的投资量,然后按不同投资水平进行统计分析,从而确定开发最适宜的产品。     

浙江省营林技术决策咨询系统

“浙江省营林技术决策咨询系统”，集营林技术决策与咨询为一体，涵盖针阔用材林、经济林、竹林等140个浙江省常见的造林树种。该系统应用计算机辅助设计技术、实现在特定立地条件下选择适宜生长的树种，并进行效益优化分析，大大推进营林生产决策科学化、定量化进程。该软件已获计算机软件著作权登记保护。     

基于非线性规划的模糊多属性群体偏好决策模型

针对决策属性权重未知且属性值为三角模糊数的群体多属性决策问题,提出了一种新的非线性规划决策方法。该方法首先设置理想方案的属性值和权值,并依据专家偏好集合和三角模糊数的距离来判断群体决策的一致度和不一致度,然后构建模糊多属性群体偏好非线性规划决策模型,求解模型得到理想方案属性值和各属性的权重,再通过计算各备选方案到理想方案的实际距离来进行决策和方案排序,最后通过算例检验,为决策提供新思路。     

基于粗糙集的林分经营决策因子分类研究

以湖南涟源龙山森林公园次生林林分为研究对象,以森林生态系统近自然经营为目标,以林分空间结构理论为指导,选取影响林分经营决策的多个主要因子作为条件属性,以主要经营措施择伐作为决策属性,应用粗糙集理论(Rough Set)进行属性约简,获得各因子的决策优先度和指标权重,精简和优化林分经营决策的指标体系。结果表明:应用优化的经营决策指标体系指导林分经营,有利于林分空间结构的优化和生态系统的稳定,且实际使用简单,操作性强。     

营林技术决策系统的研究与开发

A set of forestation decision-making system which covers 140 tree species growing extensively in Zhejiang Province including coniferous forest, broad-leaf forest, production forest, and bamboo forest, was developed by cooperation of silvicultural techniques and computer programming based on the experience of forestry management and mathematical models. It can be easily operated to help user selecting tree species in given site types and optimize their benefits, which advances the efficiency of forestation and improves the rationality of decision-making.     

Analysis of information used in the management of plant genetic resources: a case study from northwestern Mato Grosso,Brazil

Evaluation and monitoring are critical to agroforestry (AFS) project management, especially if they aim to contribute to use and conservation of biodiversity and plant genetic resources. A methodology to analyze information used in decision-making processes was developed and applied in a biodiversity conservation project in the Brazilian Amazon. Quality of information gathered at landscape, AFS, species (Bactris gasipaes Kunth, both wild and cultivated varieties) and genetic diversity levels in three dimensions was analyzed. The information at the landscape level was good, while that in the organizational-institutional and socio-economic dimensions was acceptable; information gaps were serious in the genetic-ecological dimension. Ecological and economic functionality assessment based on indicators built upon reported administrative actions suggests that information related to conservation played a greater role in decision-making and management than information associated with use and development. The application of the methodology proved instrumental for enhancing efficacy of decision-making within an adaptive management approach to plant genetic resources use and conservation.     

碳汇营林技术推广的认知基础测度与实证研究

基于文献回顾与理论假设,设计了一套用于测评农户对碳汇营林技术推广过程中内在认知基础的量表体系,并根据调研数据对该量表测度效果进行了实证检验。检验最终结果显示:在碳汇营林技术推广过程中,农户关于碳汇营林技术推广的交易成本与权利损失认知、农户关于碳汇营林技术推广的社会生态与经济收益认知、农户关于碳汇营林技术推广的组织参与认知等,都将对推广过程的实现度与满意度产生显著性影响。这一结果说明,本研究所提出的影响农户对碳汇营林技术推广的认知基础测度框架大体趋于合理并可以接受,这就为更进一步进行碳汇营林技术推广相关管理制度的设计与构建,提供了一个主观数据设置方面的实证支持。     

发展森林旅游应该注意的几个问题

随着我国森林旅游业的发展,森林旅游的决策、规划设计、经营管理、旅游产品开发和市场营销问题是一个值得认真研究和探索的课题。本文就如何加强森林旅游业的决策、规划设计、经营管理、旅游产品开发和市场营销问题进行探讨。     

基于多指标区间数关联分析的相对隶属度方法

针对具有区间数的多指标决策问题,借鉴一种逼近于理想点(TOPS IS)分析方法的思想,采用区间数灰色关联度的计算方法,对正、负关联度,利用相对隶属度方法对多方案进行排序,给出了解决区间数多指标决策问题的计算步骤.本文将整个评价方案看作一个整体来寻求正、负理想方案,该方法避免了区间数难以排序的问题,具有可理解性和可操作性.最后给出实例以验证该方法的有效性和实用性.     

The future orientation of foresters: An exploratory research among Dutch foresters into the prerequisite for strategic planning in forestry

The importance of strategic planning as an instrument to cope with the uncertain future has been long recognized, especially in forestry which is characterized by its relationship with the distant future. Surprisingly, the question to what extent the future is indeed considered in forestry decision-making has received only limited attention. It is therefore the objective of this paper to explore empirically foresters' relation with time (called time perspectives), and more specifically their future orientation, as a basic prerequisite for strategic planning in forestry. In a case study approach, Dutch foresters were questioned with Cottle's Circles Test on the role of the future in their decision-making and the extent to which their planning is merely an extrapolation of past experiences and/or the perception of present conditions. The results indicate a strong future orientation of (Dutch) foresters in planning and decision-making. This allows for strategic planning in a truly entrepreneurial style with uncertainty being interpreted as a valuable resource. However, the results also show that this future orientation is constantly contested by the importance which foresters are assigning to the ‘past’ for learning.     

Adopting robust decision-making to forest management under climate change

Key message

Multi-objective robust decision making is a promising decision-making method in forest management under climate change as it adequately considers deep uncertainties and handles the long-term, inflexible, and multi-objective character of decisions. This paper provides guidance for application and recommendation on the design.

Context

Recent studies have promoted the application of robust decision-making approaches to adequately consider deep uncertainties in natural resource management. Yet, applications have until now hardly addressed the forest management context.

Aims

This paper seeks to (i) assemble different definitions of uncertainty and draw recommendation to deal with the different levels in decision making, (ii) outline those applications that adequately deal with deep uncertainty, and (iii) systematically review the applications to natural resources management in order to (iv) propose adoption in forest management.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review of robust decision-making approaches and their applications in natural resource management. Different levels of uncertainty were categorized depending on available knowledge in order to provide recommendations on dealing with deep uncertainty. Robust decision-making approaches and their applications to natural resources management were evaluated based on different analysis steps. A simplified application to a hypothetical tree species selection problem illustrates that distinct robustness formulations may lead to different conclusions. Finally, robust decision-making applications to forest management under climate change uncertainty were evaluated and recommendations drawn.

Results

Deep uncertainty is not adequately considered in the forest management literature. Yet, the comparison of robust decision-making approaches and their applications to natural resource management provide guidance on applying robust decision making in forest management regarding decision contexts, decision variables, robustness metrics, and how uncertainty is depicted.

Conclusion

As forest management is characterized by long decision horizons, inflexible systems, and multiple objectives, and is subject to deeply uncertain climate change, the application of a robust decision-making framework using a global, so-called satisficing robustness metric is recommended. Further recommendations are distinguished depending on the decision context.