长江江苏段船载危化品安全风险事故概率研究

长江江苏段危化品运输船舶日均流量达500艘次,年过境化学品运输量超过2亿吨,给沿江分布的集中式饮用水水源地带来巨大环境风险。本文将长江江苏段航道水域分成19段,结合统计的长江水路交通状况数据(AIS数据),利用统计学方法学和线性插值技术,对长江江苏段危化品船舶污染事故概率进行预测计算,以考察江段的安全环境风险承载力。针对长江江苏段危险品船舶的高风险,提出降低船舶安全事故概率的对策。     

基于GIS-AHP方法的危险品物流运输选线研究

文章针对地理信息系统（GIS）和层次分析法（AHP）在目标数据量化及综合评价方面的优点,提出了危险品运输选线GIS-AHP方法,阐述了GIS-AHP方法的具体实施步骤,并结合某跨地区危险品道路运输实例进行了选线分析。结果表明,该方法能显著提高危险品道路运输的风险综合评价水平,且所选路线科学、合理。     

欧洲危险品运输管理经验借鉴

如果单独考虑对生命和财产造成的伤害程度,在各种不同的运输方式中,因为公路往往通过人口密集的区域,所以依托公路的危险品运输较其他运输方式更为危险。加强危险品公路运输管理,对其风险进行评估,合理选择危险品公路运量等路径策略开始成为人们关注的焦点,欧洲在这方面积累了不少经验。     

危货运输经营：向左走？向右走？

随着国民经济建设步伐的加快，化工企业如雨后春笋般越来越多，生产的化工产品也越来越多，而绝大部分化工产品都属于危险品，都需要有危险货物运输资质的企业来运输。很多有商业头脑的经营者，都盯准了这块“大蛋糕”，虽然运输危险品存在高风险，但是有风险才有利润，风险越大，利润越高，     

居“危”思“安”,安全不容让步

正危险品安全监管的任何一个环节出问题,均可能成为下一个"炸弹"。"目前,全国取得危险品许可证的生产、经营和使用企业达28.5万余家。不少大容量储存设施陆续投用,运输线路也在变长,生产、储存,运输和物流环节的安全风险剧增。"3月3日,交通运输部安全总监成平带着《《关于如何改进危险品安全监管体制机制》的提案接受了     

基于公共安全三角形的危险品航空运输情景构建

针对危险品航空运输由于人员在运输环节中存在错误操作构成安全隐患的问题，基于公共安全三角形理论，构建危险品航空运输事件情景，提前为事故发生做出应急准备。首先，在危险品航空运输全流程风险分析的基础上识别并归纳运输流程中存在的致灾因子；同时，根据风险计算公式得到致灾因子的风险水平，经营人判断是否要进行情景构建。其次，将承灾载体按照人、物以及环境三大类进行划分。最后，根据承灾载体以及突发事件的具体情况结合其应急管理的需要进行情景构建，为危险品航空运输突发事件的应急管理提供指导。     

危货运输经营:向左走?向右走?

随着国民经济建设步伐的加快,化工企业如雨后春笋般越来越多,生产的化工产品也越来越多,而绝大部分化工产品都属于危险品,都需要有危险货物运输资质的企业来运输。很多有商业头脑的经营者,都盯准了这块"大蛋糕",虽然运输危险品存在高风险,但是有风险才有利润,风险越大,利润越高,为了丰厚的利润,部分经营者纷纷"试水",申办危险货物运输经营资质。根据《道路危险货物运输管理规定》(交通部2005     

开展危险品运输稽查活动应注意哪些问题

近日,嘉兴市公路运输管理处组织了一次危险品运输专项稽查活动,由于事前计划周全,组织严密,一举查获危险品黑车13辆,有效维护了危险品运输市场秩序。     

势在必行的全国危险品运输标准化建设

<正>标准数量少,远远满足不了危险品运输安全的需求。而运输急需的专项作业标准等尚未制定。为预防和减少危险品运输事故的发生,同时为运输企业和监管部门的实际工作提供指导,有必要制定和实施一系列相关的技术标准来约束和控制危险品运输全过程。现如今,我国危险品运输标准化建设情况如何呢?     

洋为中用加速标准化建设

为预防和减少危险品运输事故的发生．为了给运输企业和管理部门的实际工作提供技术指导，我国先后制定和实施了一系列相关的技术标准来约束和控制运输全过程，但相比国外，我国危险品运输标准化工作仍然存在不少问题：     

Energy use in passenger transport in OECD countries: Changes since 1970

This paper analyzes some of the changes that took place in the structure of energy use for passenger travel in industrialized countries. Data is presented on energy use and travel activity for the four major modes of travel — automobile, bus, rail and air — for eight OECD countries: the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, West Germany, France, Italy, Sweden, and Norway. We use the Laspeyres and Divisia indices to analyze the causes of the change in energy use between 1970 and 1987. The total change in energy use for travel is explained by changes in domestic passenger transport volumes, the mix of modes of travel, and the energy intensities of each mode. We have found two important effects that have a fundamental impact on energy use for travel since 1970. First, shifts among modes of transport towards more energy-intensive ones and large increases in volumes of travel (measured in passenger-kilometers) increased energy use for travel in many OECD countries, often more rapidly than the overall growth in GDP. Second, energy intensities, measured in mJ/passenger-kilometer, of passenger transport fell only in a few countries between 1970 and 1987. Even though individual automobiles have become more energy-efficient, greater size, power, and weight, worsening traffic conditions in Japan and Europe, and fewer people in cars restrained or even offset efficiency improvements. Particularly notable are the increases in intensities in Japan and Germany. The most important exception to this trend was the United States, but the intensities of land-based travel remain higher there than in most other countries. These findings lead to a pessimistic outlook for future energy use for travel. After all, if little or no energy was saved during the decades of high fuel prices, what can be expected in the 1990s?     

基于LEAP模型的佛山市交通碳排放研究

随着城市化的发展,珠三角城市交通能源消耗和碳排放迅速增长。为了探讨珠三角城市低碳交通的发展方向,本文采用LEAP模型,以珠三角的佛山市为例,模拟了不同情景下交通总量、陆运和水运的能源消耗、能源结构和碳排放由2011至2030年的变化情况;并据此提出了珠三角城市低碳交通发展对策。结果表明:水运在交通运输中所占份额逐渐被陆运替代,将形成陆运为主、水运为辅的交通模式;在交通总量、陆运和水运等的交通能耗及碳排放方面,低碳情景均小于基准情景,且呈水运小于陆运的态势;而清洁能源使用比重的增加则有利于交通领域的低碳发展。珠三角城市低碳交通发展需关注陆运交通,提高清洁能源在陆运中的使用比重,优化陆运与水运的交通布局,提高运输及能源利用效率。     

Elasticities of fuel and traffic demand and the direct rebound effects: An econometric estimation in the case of Norway

We estimate the elasticities of fuel and travel demand with respect to fuel prices and income in the case of Norway. Furthermore, we derive the direct rebound effects that explain the degree to which a fuel price increase is “offset” in the form of greater fuel use and/or travel due to improvements in vehicle fuel efficiency. For this purpose, we use and compare two alternative econometric approaches: the error correction model (ECM) and the dynamic model. Our initial assumption is that one should not be indifferent with respect to the approach used to derive elasticities. The data used are for the period 1980–2011. Our results indicate the following: (1) the dynamic model fits the data better than the ECM model does; (2) the estimated elasticities of fuel demand with respect to price and income are −0.26 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.36 and 0.09 in the long run. For travel demand, the respective elasticities are −0.11 and 0.06 in the short run and −0.24 and 0.13 in the long run, implying inelastic demands for fuel and travel demand; and (3) rebound effects indicate that 0.26% and 0.06% of fuel savings as a result of fuel price increase will be offset in the form of more fuel use in the short run and in the long run, respectively, if fuel efficiency increases by 1%. Our policy recommendations are that policies should not be indifferent to the methods used to derive elasticities. We contend that it is crucial to seriously consider rebound effects in policy making because basic elasticity estimates exaggerate the impact of fuel price increases.     

Risk of increasing temperature due to climate change on high-speed rail network in Spain

With more than 3,200 km of track, the Spanish high-speed rail network is the longest network in Europe and the second largest in the world after China. Due to its geographical location in southern Europe, the entire network is exposed to periods of elevated temperatures that can cause disturbances and severe disruptions such as rail deformation, or in the worst case, lateral track buckling. In this study, the vulnerability of the current Spanish high-speed rail network is analysed in terms of track buckling failures with a Monte Carlo simulation. Downscaled temperature projections from a range of Global Climate Models (GCMs), under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5), were forced in a buckling model and particularized for different segments of the network. With that, the proposed methodology provides the number of rail buckles expected per year by assuming current maintenance standards and procedures. The result reveals significant increase in the occurrence of buckling events for future years, mainly in the central and southern areas of mainland Spain. However, relevant variations are found in different climates and time horizon scenarios in Spain. The anticipated buckling occurrences highlight the vulnerability of the Spanish rail network in the context of global warming scenarios. Overall, the proposed methodology is designed to be applicable in large-scale railway networks to identify potential buckling sites for the purpose of understanding and predicting their behaviour.     

Distributed work and travel behaviour: The dynamics of interactive agency choices between employers and employees

This paper develops a framework within which multiple agents make discrete choices in respect of a common objective – the determination of participation in distributed work, especially the opportunities and constraints associated with telecommuting. Ideas in discrete choice theory and game theory are combined to define a set of choice experiments in which employees and employers interact in arriving at a choice path in a distributed work context. A state choice experiment with offers and feedback, known as an interactive agency choice experiment (IACE), is empirically investigated in the context of telecommuting options with an exploratory sample of employees and employers in Sydney, Australia. The approach highlights the role of information and negotiation in breaking down the barriers to more flexible work activity, to deliver potential benefits to the transport system such as reduced traffic congestion and environmental sustainability. The paper identifies the types of incentives that an employee/er has to offer the employer/employee in securing effective telecommuting. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

新疆钢渣成渣工艺及集料化分析研究

本文通过对新疆不同成渣工艺及钢渣矿物化学组成、稳定性、物理指标进行分析,阐述了新疆钢渣技术现状,推动钢渣在公路工程中的资源化利用。新疆钢渣主要集中于北疆的乌昌地区,在热泼法和热闷法两种成渣工艺下,钢渣化学矿物成分相对稳定,属于高碱活性材料,并具有胶凝特性,同时具有一定工程级配。f-CaO含量热闷法小于热泼法,并且在自然环境下可陈化降解,有利于钢渣的稳定性。钢渣物理指标优于新疆常规碎、砾石材料,可集料化用于公路工程建设。此外,钢渣在工程应用中具有显著的经济和生态效益。     

The effect of uncertainty on US transport-related GHG emissions and fuel consumption out to 2050

The future of US transport energy requirements and emissions is uncertain. Transport policy research has explored a number of scenarios to better understand the future characteristics of US light-duty vehicles. Deterministic scenario analysis is, however, unable to identify the impact of uncertainty on the future US vehicle fleet emissions and energy use. Variables determining the future fleet emissions and fuel use are inherently uncertain and thus the shortfall in understanding the impact of uncertainty on the future of US transport needs to be addressed. This paper uses a stochastic technology and fleet assessment model to quantify the uncertainties in US vehicle fleet emissions and fuel use for a realistic yet ambitious pathway which results in about a 50% reduction in fleet GHG emissions in 2050. The results show the probability distribution of fleet emissions, fuel use, and energy consumption over time out to 2050. The expected value for the fleet fuel consumption is about 450 and 350 billion litres of gasoline equivalent with standard deviations of 40 and 80 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The expected value for the fleet GHG emissions is about 1360 and 850 Mt CO₂ equivalent with standard deviation of 130 and 230 in 2030 and 2050 respectively. The parameters that are major contributors to variations in emissions and fuel consumption are also identified and ranked through the uncertainty analysis. It is further shown that these major contributors change over time, and include parameters such as: vehicle scrappage rate, annual growth of vehicle kilometres travelled in the near term, total vehicle sales, fuel economy of the dominant naturally-aspirated spark ignition vehicles, and percentage of gasoline displaced by cellulosic ethanol. The findings in this paper demonstrate the importance of taking uncertainties into consideration when choosing amongst alternative fuel and emissions reduction pathways, in the light of their possible consequences.     

The role of attitude structures,direct experience and reframing for the success of congestion pricing

Congestion pricing was introduced in Stockholm in 2006, first as a trial followed by a referendum, and permanently from 2007. Public attitudes to the charges became more negative during the period from the decision to the start of the system. Once the trial started, public attitudes became dramatically more positive over the following years, going from 2/3 against the charges to more than 2/3 in favor of the charges. Self-reported changes in behavior and attitudes considerably underestimate actual changes: about 3/4 of the decrease in car trips and more than half of the change in attitudes seem to have gone unnoticed by respondents, ex post. Self-interest and belief in the charges’ effectiveness strongly affect attitudes at any given point in time, but can only explain a minor part of the change in attitudes. I suggest that the debate and the shift in attitudes can be understood as a public and political reframing of the congestion charges over time.     

The impacts of built environment on home-based work and non-work trips: An empirical study from Iran

This paper aims to explore the impact of built environment attributes in the scale of one quarter-mile buffers on individuals’ travel behaviors in the metropolitan of Shiraz, Iran. In order to develop this topic, the present research is developed through the analysis of a dataset collected from residents of 22 neighborhoods with variety of land use features. Using household survey on daily activities, this study investigates home-based work and non-work (HBW and HBN) trips. Structural equation models are utilized to examine the relationships between land use attributes and travel behavior while taking into account socio-economic characteristics as the residential self-selection. Results from models indicate that individuals residing in areas with high residential and job density, and shorter distance to sub-centers are more interested in using transit and non-motorized modes. Moreover, residents of neighborhoods with mixed land uses tend to travel less by car and more by transit and non-motorized modes to non-work destinations. Nevertheless, the influences of design measurements such as street density and internal connectivity are mixed in our models. Although higher internal connectivity leads to more transit and non-motorized trips in HBW model, the impacts of design measurements on individuals travel behavior in HBN model are significantly in contrast with research hypothesis. Our study also shows the importance of individuals’ self-selection impacts on travel behaviors; individuals with special socio-demographic attributes live in the neighborhoods with regard to their transportation patterns. The findings of this paper reveal that the effects of built environment attributes on travel behavior in origins of trips do not exactly correspond with the expected predictions, when it comes in practice in a various study context. This study displays the necessity of regarding local conditions of urban areas and the inherent differences between travel destinations in integrating land use and transportation planning.