Alcohol outlet density and university student drinking: a national study

AIMS: To examine the geographic density of alcohol outlets and associations with drinking levels and related problems among university students. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey study using geospatial data, with campus-level and individual-level analyses. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 2550 students (mean age 20.2, 60% women) at six university campuses in New Zealand (63% response). MEASUREMENTS: Counts of alcohol outlets within 3 km of each campus were tested for their non-parametric correlation with aggregated campus drinking levels and related problems. Generalized estimating equations were used to model the relation between outlet counts within 1 km and 3 km of student residences and individual drinking levels/problems, with control for gender, age, ethnicity and high school binge drinking frequency, and adjustment for campus-level clustering. FINDINGS: Correlations for campus-level data were 0.77 (P = 0.07) for drinking and personal problems, and 0.31 (P = 0.54) for second-hand effects. There were consistent significant associations of both on- and off-licence outlet densities with all outcomes in student-level adjusted models. Effects were largest for 1 km densities and off-licence outlets. CONCLUSIONS: There are positive associations between alcohol outlet density and individual drinking and related problems. Associations remain after controlling for demographic variables and pre-university drinking, i.e. the associations are unlikely to be due to self-selection effects. Increasing alcohol outlet density, and particularly off-licences, may increase alcohol-related harm among university students.     

Drinking games,tailgating, and pregaming: Precollege predictors of risky college drinking

Background: The transition from high school to college is a critical period for developing college drinking habits. Hazardous alcohol consumption increases during this period, as well as participation in drinking games, pregaming, and tailgating. All of these risky drinking practices are associated with higher levels of intoxication as well as an increased risk of alcohol-related problems. Objective: The current study aimed to evaluate pre-college predictors (personality, social norms, and beliefs reflecting the internalization of the college drinking culture [ICDC]) of estimated peak BAC (pBAC) reached during drinking games, pregaming, and tailgating, as well as pBAC and alcohol-related problems during the first 30 days of college. Methods: Participants (n?=?936) were incoming freshmen at a large university who completed a baseline assessment prior to college matriculation and a follow-up assessment after they had been on campus for 30 days. Results: Using path analysis, ICDC was significantly associated with pBAC reached during the three risky drinking practices. ICDC had an indirect effect on both pBAC and alcohol-related problems via pBAC from drinking games, pregaming, and tailgating. Hopelessness and sensation seeking were significantly related to alcohol use outcomes. Conclusion: Precollege perceptions of the college drinking culture are a stronger predictor of subsequent alcohol use than social norms. Interventions that target these beliefs may reduce peak intoxication and associated harms experienced during the first 30 days of college.     

A comparison between two retrospective alcohol consumption measures and the daily drinking diary method with university students

Background: There are two main categories of retrospective self-report alcohol consumption measures: summary and daily drinking. Time-efficient summary measures have been criticized for being less able to capture sporadic and unpatterned drinking. A novel retrospective summary measure, the Typical and Atypical Drinking Diary (TADD), may produce more precise estimates of alcohol consumption than the gold-standard daily measure, the Timeline Followback (TLFB). Objective: To establish how accurately the TADD and TLFB retrospectively capture alcohol consumption compared to the Daily Drinking Diary (DDD) method. Method: Forty-three university undergraduates (77% female) concurrently recorded their daily alcohol consumption for 28 consecutive days using daily drinking diaries. Participants then retrospectively estimated their alcohol consumption using both the TADD and TLFB 28 days following completion of the 28-day daily consumption period. Results: When compared against the drinking data obtained from the DDD method, the TADD consistently produced accurate retrospective estimates of total alcohol consumption, number of drinking days, and number of heavy drinking episodes. Contrariwise, the TLFB significantly underestimated all aspects of drinking. Underreporting on the TLFB was hypothesized to be associated with social desirability bias. Conclusion: The TADD is a valid and reliable instrument for retrospectively measuring alcohol consumption and drinking variability in the university student population.     

Association of acculturation with drinking games among Hispanic college students

Objective: This cross-sectional study was conducted to investigate which components of acculturation relate to drinking games participation among Hispanic college students. We also sought to examine whether the relationships between acculturation and drinking games would differ from the associations between acculturation and other alcohol-related outcomes. Method: A sample of 1,397 Hispanic students aged 18–25 (75% women; 77% US-born) from 30 US colleges and universities completed a confidential online survey. Results: Associations among acculturative processes, drinking games participation, general alcohol consumption, and negative drinking consequences differed across gender. Most significant findings emerged in the domain of cultural practices. For women, US cultural practices were associated with greater general alcohol consumption, drinking games frequency, and amount of alcohol consumed while gaming, whereas for men, US cultural practices were associated with general alcohol consumption and negative drinking consequences. Conclusions: Hispanic and US cultural practices, values, and identifications were differentially associated with drinking games participation, and these associations differed by gender. It is therefore essential for college student alcohol research to examine US culture acquisition and Hispanic culture retention separately and within the domains of cultural practices, values, and identifications.     

Social anxiety and drinking game participation among university students: the moderating role of drinking to cope

Background: Few studies have examined the relationship of social anxiety with drinking game participation. Drinking games represent a popular form of drinking in university settings. Due to their structure, games may appeal to socially anxious drinkers, particularly among those seeking to fit in or cope with the social setting. Objectives: To examine the relationship of social anxiety with frequency of drinking game participation among a university undergraduate sample and to investigate if drinking motives moderate this association. Method: A total of 227 undergraduate students aged 18–24 years (73% female) who had consumed alcohol in the prior year were included in the current investigation. Hierarchical regression examined the influences of social anxiety and drinking motives on frequency of drinking game participation, as well the interactions of social anxiety with drinking for coping motives and conformity motives. Results: Social anxiety failed to emerge as a significant predictor of frequency of drinking game participation. However, drinking to cope moderated the relationship of social anxiety with frequency of drinking game participation. Socially anxious students who drank to cope were more likely to participate in drinking games on occasions when they consumed alcohol than those who did not endorse this drinking motive. Conclusion: Results demonstrated the influence of drinking to cope in the relationship of social anxiety with frequency of drinking game participation. Future work should examine the relationship with other indicators of drinking game activity. Intervention efforts addressing social anxiety and drinking should consider motives for drinking, as well as drinking patterns.     

The relationship between drinking games and intentions to continue drinking,intentions to drive after drinking,and adverse consequences: Results of a field study

Background: Drinking games have become a nearly universal aspect of excessive drinking on university campuses with 50–62% of college students reporting playing drinking games in the past month. Participation in drinking games has been correlated with numerous negative consequences and increased consumption of alcohol. Objectives: The present study addresses the influence of drinking games on three drinking-related outcomes: problems experienced the night of the drinking event, the intent to keep drinking, and the intent to drive after drinking. Methods: The data collected for the present study were part of a study testing environmental influences of drinking behaviors of young adults. A total of 226 randomly selected parties (representing 1725 partygoers) were selected for study inclusion. Three multilevel logistic regression models tested the relationship between drinking games and the three drinking-related outcomes. Results: Participants who reported playing drinking games were 1.58 times more likely to report continued drinking intentions than participants who did not play drinking games. If drinking games were observed at a party, participants were 2.38 times more likely to plan to drive while intoxicated. Additionally, participants who reported playing drinking games were 1.59 times more likely to report experiencing a drinking-related problem than participants who did not play drinking games. Conclusion: Drinking games have consequences beyond increasing the level of intoxication; they contribute to problematic behavior at individual and environmental levels. Preventing drinking games is warranted.     

Trajectories of drinking from 18 to 26 years: identification and prediction

Objective   To identify developmental trajectories of drinking between the ages of 18 and 26 years and to identify variables, amenable to policy influence, which predict these trajectories.
Design   Longitudinal data were analysed using latent class mixture modelling.
Setting   Participants were interviewed in a central location.
Participants   Provincial city birth cohort, cross-national studies suggest findings are generalizable to other similar market economies.
Measurements   The frequency of drinking over the past year and the typical quantity consumed per drinking occasion were computed from five location-specific questions. Measures used to predict membership of trajectory groups were ease of access to alcohol, drinking on licensed premises, response to alcohol advertising, educational achievement, parental consumption, age of onset of regular drinking and living arrangements.
Results   Three trajectories of quantities consumed showed reduced consumption after age 21 but one trajectory showed marked increases. Three trajectories of frequency of drinking increased or remained stable over time. Access to licensed premises at age 18 had the most significant impact on membership of the trajectory groups and educational achievement had a significant impact on membership of the heavier quantity trajectory groups. Parental alcohol consumption, access to alcohol at 15 years, liking for alcohol advertising, living arrangement and age of onset of regular drinking also influenced trajectory membership.
Conclusions   Quantity and frequency of drinking in adolescence and early adulthood had different trajectories. Membership of heavier drinking groups was affected by environmental influences which are subject to policy change, particularly that of earlier access to licensed premises. In a small group high-quantity consumption did not decrease at age 26.     

Age–period–cohort modelling of alcohol volume and heavy drinking days in the US National Alcohol Surveys: divergence in younger and older adult trends

Aims   The decomposition of trends in alcohol volume and heavy drinking days into age, period, cohort and demographic effects offers an important perspective on the dynamics of change in alcohol use patterns in the United States.
Design   The present study utilizes data from six National Alcohol Surveys conducted over the 26-year period between 1979 and 2005.
Setting   United States.
Measurements   Alcohol volume and the number of days when five or more and eight or more drinks were consumed were derived from overall and beverage-specific graduated frequency questions.
Results   Trend analyses show that while mean values of drinking measures have continued to decline for those aged 26 and older, there has been a substantial increase in both alcohol volume and 5+ days among those aged 18–25 years. Age–period–cohort models indicate a potential positive cohort effect among those born after 1975. However, an alternative interpretation of an age–cohort interaction where drinking falls off more steeply in the late 20s than was the case in the oldest surveys cannot be ruled out. For women only, the 1956–60 birth cohort appears to drink more heavily than those born just before or after. Models also indicate the importance of income, ethnicity, education and marital status in determining these alcohol measures.
Conclusions   Increased heavy drinking among young adults in recent surveys presents a significant challenge for alcohol policy and may indicate a sustained increase in future US alcohol consumption.     

Which came first: the readiness or the change? Longitudinal relationships between readiness to change and drinking among college drinkers

Aims Although readiness to change (RTC) is cited as a key mechanism underlying drinking behavior change, empirical evidence supporting RTC as a predictor of college drinking has been mixed. Considering methodological limitations of previous studies, the current aim was to conduct a more comprehensive test of longitudinal relationships between readiness to change and college drinking. Design In this correlational, longitudinal study, we used a series of cross‐lagged path analyses to test associations between RTC and college drinking outcomes over a 2‐year period. Setting Data collection was conducted via online surveys on a university campus in the US Pacific Northwest. Participants Participants (n = 818; 58% women) were college students who reported at least one heavy‐drinking episode in the past month and participated in a randomized controlled trial of personalized normative feedback interventions. Measurements Drinking quantity–frequency items and the Rutgers Alcohol Problem Index assessed drinking outcomes. The Readiness to Change Questionnaire assessed RTC. Findings For drinking‐related problems, the best‐fitting model included cross‐lagged paths between RTC and subsequent drinking‐related problems. For drinking quantity–frequency, best‐fitting models also included the cross‐lagged paths between drinking quantity–frequency and subsequent RTC. Higher RTC almost uniformly predicted higher subsequent levels of drinking and greater experience of drinking‐related problems, and drinking quantity–frequency variables were primarily positive predictors of subsequent RTC. Conclusions Contrary to previous assumptions, ‘the Readiness to Change Questionnaire’ does not appear to be predictive of lower levels of subsequent drinking.     

Randomized controlled trial of the effects of completing the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test questionnaire on self-reported hazardous drinking

AIMS: The direct effects of screening on drinking behaviour have not previously been evaluated experimentally. We tested whether screening reduces self-reported hazardous drinking in comparison with a non-screened control group. DESIGN: Two-arm randomized controlled trial (RCT), with both groups blinded to the true nature of the study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: A total of 421 university students aged 18-24 years, recruited in five London student unions. INTERVENTIONS: Both groups completed a brief pen-and-paper general health and socio-demographic questionnaire, which for the experimental group also included the 10-item Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) screening questionnaire. MEASUREMENTS: The primary outcome was the between-group difference in AUDIT score at 2-3-month follow-up. Eight secondary outcomes comprised other aspects of hazardous drinking, including dedicated measures of alcohol consumption, problems and dependence. FINDINGS: A statistically significant effect size of 0.23 (0.01-0.45) was detected on the designated primary outcome. The marginal nature of the statistical significance of this effect was apparent in additional analyses with covariates. Statistically significant differences were also obtained in three of eight secondary outcomes, and the observed effect sizes were not dissimilar to the known effects of brief interventions. CONCLUSIONS: It is unclear to what extent these findings represent the effects of screening alone, a Hawthorne effect in which drinking behaviour has changed in response to monitoring, or whether they indicate reporting bias. These possibilities have important implications both for the dissemination of screening as an intervention in its own right and for behavioural intervention trials methodology.     

Approaches to brief intervention for hazardous drinking in young people

This article represents the proceedings of a symposium at the 2002 joint conference of the Research Society on Alcoholism and the International Society for Biomedical Research on Alcoholism in San Francisco. The chair was John B. Saunders. The focus of the symposium was on brief intervention approaches for hazardous drinking among young people. The presentations were (1) Evidence for the effectiveness of brief intervention as an approach to reducing hazardous alcohol use, by John B. Saunders; (2) College student hazardous drinking in New Zealand, the USA, UK, and Australia: implications for research, policy, and intervention, by Kypros Kypri; (3) Applications of motivational feedback on the college campus, by Scott T. Walters; (4) A population based individualized alcohol harm reduction feedback intervention: preliminary results from the college-based alcohol risk reduction (CBARR) trial, by Robert G. Laforge; and (5) Brief interventions: conclusions and future directions, by Mary E. Larimer.     

Implementation of NIAAA College Drinking Task Force Recommendations: How Are Colleges Doing 6 Years Later?

Background: In 2002, the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA) College Drinking Task Force issued recommendations to reduce heavy drinking by college students, but little is known about implementation of these recommendations. Current discussion about best strategies to reduce student drinking has focused more on lowering the minimum legal drinking age as advocated by a group of college and university presidents called the Amethyst Initiative than the NIAAA recommendations. Methods: A nationally representative survey of administrators was conducted at 351 4‐year colleges in the United States to ascertain familiarity with and progress toward implementation of NIAAA recommendations. Implementation was compared by enrollment size, public or private status, and whether the school president signed the Amethyst Initiative. Results: Administrators at most colleges were familiar with NIAAA recommendations, although more than 1 in 5 (22%) were not. Nearly all colleges use educational programs to address student drinking (98%). Half the colleges (50%) offered intervention programs with documented efficacy for students at high risk for alcohol problems. Few colleges reported that empirically supported, community‐based alcohol control strategies including conducting compliance checks to monitor illegal alcohol sales (33%), instituting mandatory responsible beverage service (RBS) training (15%), restricting alcohol outlet density (7%), or increasing the price of alcohol (2%) were operating in their community. Less than half the colleges with RBS training and compliance checks in their communities actively participated in these interventions. Large colleges were more likely to have RBS training and compliance checks, but no differences in implementation were found across public/private status or whether the college president signed the Amethyst Initiative. Conclusions: Many colleges offer empirically supported programs for high‐risk drinkers, but few have implemented other strategies recommended by NIAAA to address student drinking. Opportunities exist to reduce student drinking through implementation of existing, empirically based strategies.     

US state alcohol sales compared to survey data, 1993–2006

Aims Assess long‐term trends of the correlation between alcohol sales data and survey data. Design Analyses of state alcohol consumption data from the US Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System based on sales, tax receipts or alcohol shipments. Cross‐sectional, state annual estimates of alcohol‐related measures for adults from the US Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System using telephone surveys. Setting United States. Participants State alcohol tax authorities, alcohol vendors, alcohol industry (sales data) and randomly selected adults aged ≥ 18 years 1993–2006 (survey data). Measurements State‐level per capita annual alcohol consumption estimates from sales data. Self‐reported alcohol consumption, current drinking, heavy drinking, binge drinking and alcohol‐impaired driving from surveys. Correlation coefficients were calculated using linear regression models. Findings State survey estimates of consumption accounted for a median of 22% to 32% of state sales data across years. Nevertheless, state consumption estimates from both sources were strongly correlated with annual r‐values ranging from 0.55–0.71. State sales data had moderate‐to‐strong correlations with survey estimates of current drinking, heavy drinking and binge drinking (range of r‐values across years: 0.57–0.65; 0.33–0.70 and 0.45–0.61, respectively), but a weaker correlation with alcohol‐impaired driving (range of r‐values: 0.24–0.56). There were no trends in the magnitude of correlation coefficients. Conclusions Although state surveys substantially underestimated alcohol consumption, the consistency of the strength of the association between sales consumption and survey data for most alcohol measures suggest both data sources continue to provide valuable information. These findings support and extend the distribution of consumption model and single distribution theory, suggesting that both sales and survey data are useful for monitoring population changes in alcohol use.     

Pattern of drinking and fatal injury: a population-based follow-up study of Finnish men

AIM: To find out how the frequency of drinking one to two drinks, three to four drinks and five or more drinks of alcohol per drinking occasion predicts injury mortality in 16 years of follow-up among the Finnish 15-69-year-old male population. DESIGN: Three alcohol surveys conducted in 1969, 1976 and 1984 were pooled and linked with mortality information from the national cause of death register. METHOD: Cox proportional hazard models were used for analysing the survival time data. FINDINGS: Drinking at the level of one to two drinks, regardless of frequency, did not elevate the risk of fatal injury, nor did drinking at the level of three to four drinks. Drinking five or more drinks at a time significantly increased the risk of fatal injury in graded relation, compared with those who never drank at that level. The risk was highest for those who drank five or more drinks at a time at least weekly (RR = 5.78, 95% CI = 2.80-11.94), when adjusted for possible confounders. CONCLUSIONS: We found that besides the total volume of consumption, a drinking pattern that involves drinking occasions when consumption exceeds four drinks of alcohol at a time leads to a significant increase in the risk of fatal injury among Finnish men. The risk is highest among those who have the highest annual number of heavy drinking occasions. The finding does not support the hypothesis that alcohol tolerance would lower the risk of fatal injuries among frequent heavy drinkers.     

Socio‐economic status predicts drinking patterns but not alcohol‐related consequences independently

Aim To identify independent relationships between socio‐economic status and drinking patterns and related consequences and to identify socio‐economic groups at risk for heavier consumption. Design and setting Three comparable national telephone surveys were utilized: 1995, 2000 and 2004. The respondents were aged 18–65 years. Contextual information includes that a number of liberalized alcohol policy changes occurred over the time of the surveys. Results Educational qualification, income and occupation were associated independently with alcohol consumption. There were indications that the different dimensions of drinking (quantity and frequency) had different relationships with socio‐economic status (SES). For example, lower SES groups drank heavier quantities while higher SES groups drank more frequently. SES, however, did not play a major role predicting drinking consequences once drinking patterns were controlled for, although there were some exceptions. It was the lower‐to‐average SES groups that were at greater risk for drinking heavier quantities compared to other SES groups in the population (as they had sustained increases in the quantities they consumed over time where other SES groups did not). Conclusion Socio‐economic status was related independently to drinking patterns and there were indications that SES interacted differently with the different dimensions of drinking (quantity and frequency). For the most part, socio‐economic status was not related independently to the experience of alcohol‐related consequences once drinking patterns were accounted for. It was the lower‐to‐average SES groups that were at greater risk for drinking heavier quantities compared to other SES groups in the population.     

Ten-year patterns of alcohol consumption and drinking problems among older women and men

AIMS: This study focused on changes in 10-year patterns of alcohol consumption among older women and men, late-life and life history predictors of drinking problems, and gender differences in these predictors. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: A sample of late-middle-aged community residents (N = 1291) who had consumed alcohol in the past year or shortly before was surveyed at baseline and 1 year, 4 years and 10 years later. MEASUREMENTS: At each contact point, participants completed an inventory that assessed their alcohol consumption, drinking problems and health-related and life context factors. Participants also provided information about their life history of drinking. RESULTS: Over the 10 years, the proportion of individuals who consumed alcohol declined. Among individuals who continued to drink, women and men showed comparable declines in alcohol consumption, minor concomitants of alcohol consumption and drinking problems. In addition to the amount of alcohol consumption, smoking, friends' approval of drinking and avoidance coping consistently predicted late-life drinking problems. With respect to life history factors, heavy drinking, drinking problems and increased drinking in response to life events were related to a higher likelihood of late-life drinking problems; obtaining help from family members and friends and, among men, participation in Alcoholics Anonymous, were related to a lower likelihood of problems. CONCLUSION: Older women and men show comparable declines in alcohol consumption and drinking problems. Specific late-life social context and coping variables, and life history indices, are risk factors for late-life drinking problems among both women and men.     

Progression through early drinking milestones in an adolescent treatment sample

Aims Research using nationally representative and community samples demonstrates a robust association between early onset of drinking and increased likelihood of numerous adverse outcomes. However, little is known about the subsequent drinking that occurs early in the drinking career. The present study dissects the transition from any alcohol use to treatment entry by taking a fine‐grained approach to examining the attainment and progression of drinking events in a sample of adolescents in substance use treatment. Design/Setting Data were taken from the Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study for Adolescents (DATOS‐A), a multi‐site, community‐based study of adolescents entering treatment. Participants Respondents included 3331 youth aged 12–18 years (mean = 15.75) admitted to treatment in 1993–95 (74% male, 52% white, 24% African American, 20% Hispanic). Measurements Age of attainment was obtained for five drinking‐related milestones, including first drink of alcohol, first time drunk, first monthly drinking, first drank five or more drinks/day on a weekly basis and first drank five or more drinks/day on a daily basis. Findings Most milestones were attained at a very early age, and average progression through adjacent drinking events was relatively swift, Movement through early drinking milestones was accelerated in girls and white youth. Youth who reported their first drink at an early age (age 10 or younger) showed slower progression, suggesting the existence of distinct processes underlying early use and drinking transitions within an individual. Conclusions This study provides data relevant to understanding drinking progression/natural history in a large clinical sample, especially for differences by gender and ethnicity. The findings have implications for the identification of intermediate stages that might benefit from selected intervention programs.     

Drinking games and contextual factors of 21st birthday drinking

Background: 21st birthday celebrations are among the highest risks for alcohol use throughout emerging adulthood and celebrants often experience a range of alcohol-related consequences. Objectives: The present research considered what happens when drinking games are paired with an already high-risk event (i.e., 21st birthday celebrations) and how drinking games compare with other contextual factors on 21st birthdays. Methods: Approximately four days after turning 21, 1124 college students (55% women) completed an online survey assessing alcohol use and related consequences experienced during their birthday celebrations. Participants were also asked whether drinking games and other contextual factors were associated with their celebrations. Results: Overall, 18% of participants reported playing drinking games during their 21st birthday celebrations. These individuals reported consuming more alcohol, had higher estimated BACs, and experienced more negative consequences than those who did not play drinking games. The association between playing drinking games and alcohol use and negative consequences was stronger for men. The effect of drinking games on negative consequences was mediated through elevated BAC levels. Receiving bar specials, having drinks purchased, playing drinking games, and loud music were uniquely and significantly associated with all alcohol outcomes. Conclusion: Together, these results suggest that drinking games are part of a larger context of risk contributing to extreme drinking on 21st birthdays. Furthermore, these results will help to facilitate interventions that are more individually tailored to target specific contextual risks, behaviors, and events.     

Exploring the emergence of alcohol use disorder symptoms in the two years after onset of drinking: findings from the National Surveys on Drug Use and Health

Aims This study investigates the occurrence of clinical features of alcohol dependence and socially maladaptive drinking during the first 24 months after the onset of alcohol use. Design Data for this study are from the nationally representative 2004–07 National Surveys on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH). Setting General population of the United States, aged 12 years and older. Participants New‐onset alcohol users (NOAUs) were drinkers who started to drink alcohol within 24 months of the NSDUH assessment and consumed alcohol during the last 12 months. Measurements The NSDUH assessed for clinical features of alcohol dependence and socially maladaptive drinking, consistent with the DSM‐IV. Findings NOAUs frequently experienced problems relating to self‐reported tolerance, spending a great deal of time recovering from the effects of alcohol and unsuccessful attempts at cutting down on drinking. The likelihood of experiencing the clinical features increased steadily in the first 9 months after use, but appeared to plateau or only gradually increase thereafter. Strong evidence emerged that the clinical features measured a single latent dimensional of ‘alcohol use disorder’ (AUD) in this sample. The majority of the clinical features were good indicators of the underlying AUD continuum in the 2 years after first drinking onset. Conclusions There may be a period of time during the second year of alcohol use, when level of alcohol use disorder fluctuates rather than increases. Public health and safety efforts designed to target problematic alcohol use in the earliest stages of alcohol involvement could be useful in preventing the escalation of alcohol problems in this group of drinkers.