Uncertainty management in integrated assessment modeling: towards a pluralistic approach

Integrated Assessment (IA) is an evolving research community that aims to address complex societal issues through an interdisciplinary process. The most-widely used method in Integrated Assessment is modeling. The state of the art in Integrated Assessment modeling is described in this paper in terms of history, general features, classes of models, and in terms of the strengths and weaknesses, and the dilemmasand challenges modelers face. One of the key challenges is the issue of uncertainty management. The paper outlines the sources and types of uncertainty modelers are confronted with. It then discusses how uncertainties are currently managed inIntegrated Assessment modeling, on which evaluation it is argued that complementary methods are needed that allow for pluralistic uncertainty management. The paperfinalises with discussing pluralistic concepts and approaches that are currently explored in the IA community and that seem promising in view of the challenge to incorporate explicitly more than one hidden perspective in models.     

Impact of anthropogenic activities on water quality of Lidder River in Kashmir Himalayas

The pristine waters of Kashmir Himalaya are showing signs of deterioration due to multiple reasons. This study researches the causes of deteriorating water quality in the Lidder River, one of the main tributaries of Jhelum River in Kashmir Himalaya. The land use and land cover of the Lidder catchment were generated using multi-spectral, bi-seasonal IRS LISS III (October 2005 and May 2006) satellite data to identify the extent of agriculture and horticulture lands that are the main non-point sources of pollution at the catchment scale. A total of 12 water quality parameters were analyzed over a period of 1 year. Water sampling was done at eight different sampling sites, each with a varied topography and distinct land use/land cover, along the length of Lidder River. It was observed that water quality deteriorated during the months of June–August that coincides with the peak tourist flow and maximal agricultural/horticultural activity. Total phosphorus, orthophosphate phosphorus, nitrate nitrogen, and ammoniacal nitrogen showed higher concentration in the months of July and August, while the concentration of dissolved oxygen decreased in the same period, resulting in deterioration in water quality. Moreover, tourism influx in the Lidder Valley shows a drastic increase through the years, and particularly, the number of tourists visiting the valley has increased in the summer months from June to September, which is also responsible for deteriorating the water quality of Lidder River. In addition to this, the extensive use of fertilizers and pesticides in the agriculture and horticulture lands during the growing season (June–August) is also responsible for the deteriorating water quality of Lidder River.     

Natural and anthropogenic factors affecting the shallow groundwater quality in a typical irrigation area with reclaimed water,North China Plain

In this study, the hydrochemical characteristics of shallow groundwater were analyzed to get insight into the factors affecting groundwater quality in a typical agricultural dominated area of the North China Plain. Forty-four shallow groundwater samples were collected for chemical analysis. The water type changes from Ca·Na-HCO₃ type in grass land to Ca·Na-Cl (+NO₃) type and Na (Ca)-Cl (+NO₃+SO₄) type in construction and facility agricultural land, indicating the influence of human activities. The factor analysis and geostatistical analysis revealed that the two major factors contributing to the groundwater hydrochemical compositions were the water-rock interaction and contamination from sewage discharge and agricultural fertilizers. The major ions (F, HCO₃) and trace element (As) in the shallow groundwater represented the natural origin, while the nitrate and sulfate concentrations were related to the application of fertilizer and sewage discharge in the facility agricultural area, which was mainly affected by the human activities. The values of pH, total dissolved solids, electric conductivity, and conventional component (K, Ca, Na, Mg, Cl) in shallow groundwater increased from grass land and cultivated land, to construction land and to facility agriculture which were originated from the combination sources of natural processes (e.g., water-rock interaction) and human activities (e.g., domestic effluents). The study indicated that both natural processes and human activities had influences on the groundwater hydrochemical compositions in shallow groundwater, while anthropogenic processes had more contribution, especially in the reclaimed water irrigation area.     

Stochastic landslide vulnerability modeling in space and time in a part of the northern Himalayas, India

Little is known about the quantitative vulnerability analysis to landslides as not many attempts have been made to assess it comprehensively. This study assesses the spatio-temporal vulnerability of elements at risk to landslides in a stochastic framework. The study includes buildings, persons inside buildings, and traffic as elements at risk to landslides. Building vulnerability is the expected damage and depends on the position of a building with respect to the landslide hazard at a given time. Population and vehicle vulnerability are the expected death toll in a building and vehicle damage in space and time respectively. The study was carried out in a road corridor in the Indian Himalayas that is highly susceptible to landslides. Results showed that 26% of the buildings fall in the high and very high vulnerability categories. Population vulnerability inside buildings showed a value >0.75 during 0800 to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours in more buildings that other times of the day. It was also observed in the study region that the vulnerability of vehicle is above 0.6 in half of the road stretches during 0800 hours to 1000 hours and 1600 to 1800 hours due to high traffic density on the road section. From this study, we conclude that the vulnerability of an element at risk to landslide is a space and time event, and can be quantified using stochastic modeling. Therefore, the stochastic vulnerability modeling forms the basis for a quantitative landslide risk analysis and assessment.     

Transfer of natural and anthropogenic radionuclides to ants, bryophytes and lichen in a semi-natural ecosystem

Few data are available to quantify the transfer of both natural and anthropogenic radionuclides to detritivorous invertebrates to facilitate estimation of the internal dose to such biota in models used to assess radiation exposure. To enhance the available data, activity concentrations of ¹³⁷Cs, ⁴⁰K, ⁹⁰Sr, ^239?+?240Pu, ²⁴¹Am, ²³⁵U and ²³⁸U were measured in ants (Formicidae) and corresponding undisturbed soil collected from the Zlatibor mountain in Serbia and ant/soil concentration ratios (CR) calculated. The ²⁴¹Am concentration ratios for ants were fourfold higher than those calculated for ants in a previous study whereas they are similar to the more numerous data previously reported for a range of detritivorous invertebrates in other studies. CR values for ¹³⁷Cs in ants were similar to the few other reported values and slightly lower than those for a range of detritivorous invertebrates. Those for ^239?+?240Pu were slightly higher than those for ants in two other studies but they were close to upper limit of a range of data reported for detritivorous invertebrates. All the CR values will be included in a future revision of the ERICA Tool database and will particularly improve the information available for uranium.     

Spatial succession modeling of biological communities: a multi-model approach

Strong spatial correlation may exist in the spatial succession of biological communities, and the spatial succession can be mathematically described. It was confirmed by our study on spatial succession of both plant and arthropod communities along a linear transect of natural grassland. Both auto-correlation and cross-correlation analyses revealed that the succession of plant and arthropod communities exhibited a significant spatial correlation, and the spatial correlation for plant community succession was stronger than arthropod community succession. Theoretically it should be reasonable to infer a site's community composition from the last site in the linear transect. An artificial neural network for state space modeling (ANNSSM) was developed in present study. An algorithm (i.e., Importance Detection Method (IDM)) for determining the relative importance of input variables was proposed. The relative importance for plant families Gramineae, Compositae and Leguminosae, and arthropod orders Homoptera, Diptera and Orthoptera, were detected and analyzed using IDM. ANNSSM performed better than multivariate linear regression and ordinary differential equation, while ordinary differential equation exhibited the worst performance in the simulation and prediction of spatial succession of biological communities. A state transition probability model (STPM) was proposed to simulate the state transition process of biological communities. STPM performed better than multinomial logistic regression in the state transition modeling. We suggested a novel multi-model framework, i.e., the joint use of ANNSSM and STPM, to predict the spatial succession of biological communities. In this framework, ANNSSM and STPM can be separately used to simulate the continuous and discrete dynamics.     

Forest ecological classification and mapping: Their application for ecosystem management in Newfoundland

A prerequisite to sustaining ecosystems is the inventory and classification of landscape structure and composition. Ecological classification and mapping involves the delineation of landscapes into easily recognizable units. Topography, soils, vegetation, physical landscape form, and successional pathways are delineation criteria commonly used.Damman (1967) developed a forest type classification system for Newfoundland using vegetation, soil and landforms as the defining criteria. Damman's forest types were used in combination with mensurational data to assign forest types to timber volume productivity classes. Since each of the Damman forest types is associated with characteristic soils, parent materials, moisture regime and topographic position, the mapping units are similar to Canada Land Inventory (CLI) mapping units. Field work to confirm the correlation between Damman forest types and CLI capability classes was initiated in 1993. CLI maps were recoded in 1994 and Damman forest types were determined; resulting ecosystem-based maps provide a common framework to assess forestry/wildlife interactions in an ecosystem planning process.     

Cumulative influences of a small city and former mining activities on the sediment quality of a subtropical estuarine protected area

This study aimed to evaluate the sediment quality in the estuarine protected area known as Cananéia-Iguape-Peruíbe (CIP-PA), located on the southeastern coast of Brazil. The study was designed considering possible negative effects induced by the city of Cananéia on the sediment quality of surrounding areas. This evaluation was performed using chemical and ecotoxicological analyses. Sediments were predominantly sandy, with low CaCO₃ contents. Amounts of organic matter varied, but higher contents occurred closer to the city, as well as did Fe and Total Recoverable Oils and Greases (TROGs) concentrations. Contamination by Cd and Cu was revealed in some samples, while concentrations of Zn were considered low. Chronic toxicity was detected in all tested sediments and acute toxicity occurred only in sediments collected near the city. The principal component analysis (PCA) revealed an association among Cd, Cu, Fe, TROG, fines, organic matter, CaCO₃, and chronic toxicity, whereas acute toxicity was found to be associated with Zn and mud. However, because Zn levels were low, acute toxicity was likely due to a contaminant that was not measured. Results show that there is a broad area within the CIP-PA that is under the influence of mining activities (chronic toxicity, moderate contamination by metals), whereas poorer conditions occur closer to Cananéia (acute toxicity); thus, the urban area seems to constitute a relevant source of contaminants for the estuarine complex. These results show that contamination is already capable of producing risks for the local aquatic biota, which suggests that the CIP-PA effectiveness in protecting estuarine biota may be threatened.     

Assessing the impacts of water abstractions on river ecosystem services: an eco-hydraulic modelling approach

The provision of important river ecosystem services (ES) is dependent on the flow regime. This requires methods to assess the impacts on ES caused by interventions on rivers that affect flow regime, such as water abstractions. This study proposes a method to i) quantify the provision of a set of river ES, ii) simulate the effects of water abstraction alternatives that differ in location and abstracted flow, and iii) assess the impact of water abstraction alternatives on the selected ES. The method is based on river modelling science, and integrates spatially distributed hydrological, hydraulic and habitat models at different spatial and temporal scales. The method is applied to the hydropeaked upper Noce River (Northern Italy), which is regulated by hydropower operations. We selected locally relevant river ES: habitat suitability for the adult marble trout, white-water rafting suitability, hydroelectricity production from run-of-river (RoR) plants. Our results quantify the seasonality of river ES response variables and their intrinsic non-linearity, which explains why the same abstracted flow can produce different effects on trout habitat and rafting suitability depending on the morphology of the abstracted reach. An economic valuation of the examined river ES suggests that incomes from RoR hydropower plants are of comparable magnitude to touristic revenue losses related to the decrease in rafting suitability.     

Assessment of anthropogenic influences on surface water quality in urban estuary, northern New Jersey: multivariate approach

Concentrations of selected heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Ni, Fe, and Zn), nutrients (NO ₃ ^? and NH₃), fecal coliform colonies, and other multiple physical–chemical parameters were measured seasonally from 12 locations in an urban New Jersey estuary between 1994 and 2008. Stepwise regression, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis were used to group water quality results and sampling locations, as well as to assess these data’s relationship to sewage treatment effluents and the distance to the mouth of the river. The BOD₅, NH₃, NO ₃ ^? and fecal coliform counts clustered as one group and positively correlated to the distances from treated effluent and the measures of magnitude at the discharge points. Dissolved solids and most metal species scored high along a single principal component axes and were significantly correlated with the proximity to the industrialized area. From these data, one can conclude that the effluent discharge has been a main source of anthropogenic input to the Hackensack River over the past 15 years. Therefore, the greatest improvement to water quality would come from eliminating the few remaining combined sewer overflows and improving the removal of nutrients from treated effluents before they are discharged into the creeks and river.     

Development of a practical forest ecosystem classification from existing biophysical studies: An approach used in northwestern Quebec

While forest ecosystem classification work in Quebec has traditionally concentrated on inventory and mapping, more effort is now being placed on developing field guides similar to those produced in other Canadian provinces. As part of a project to produce a practical forest ecosystem field guide for the Amos Lowlands Ecological Region in northwestern Quebec, existing sub-regional ecological studies were exploited in order to develop a regional classification of forest ecosystems, or forest stations. Review of four fundamental studies provided a list of 107 ecological phases, each representing a particular combination of forest composition, surface deposit type and moisture regime. A series of silvicultural and environmental interpretations were developed and values for each were attributed to the ecological phases. Cluster analysis was then performed to classify phases into 29 broader units. A large, regional biophysical database which became available later in the project provided a means of validating and effectively modifying the classification. The justifications for using the original approach are discussed.     

Integrated approach for the quality assessment of freshwater resources in a vineyard area (South Portugal)

An integrated chemical and biological approach for the quality assessment of freshwater resources in a vineyard area of the ??Alentejo?? region (South Portugal) is presented. This includes analysis to 11 pesticide compounds and whole toxicity testing on algae and crustaceans. Simazine, terbuthylazine, terbutryn, desethylatrazine and chlorpyrifos were the most frequently detected pesticides in water collected from wells and drainage channels. Mixtures of up to three compounds in different qualitative combinations were also found. The quality standards for individual pesticides (0.1 ??g L^???1) and pesticides-total (0.5 ??g L^???1) were exceeded in some samples. However, their maximum concentrations were lower than the WHO guidelines, the USEPA health advisory values and the environmental quality standards for priority substances applicable to surface water. In five samples, the herbicides terbuthylazine and terbutryn and the insecticide chlorpyrifos did not pass the toxicity exposure ratio (TER) trigger values specified for aquatic organisms (algae, Daphnia and fish). Maximum toxic effects on Daphnia magna (100%) and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata (82.56%) were determined in groundwater samples, while in surface water, no toxicity was observed. Concerning effects on Heterocypris incongruens in sediment samples collected at the drainage channels, mortality and growth inhibition values were below 38%. Pro-active management of the use of pesticides is recommended for implementing at the farm and catchment level to reduce inputs into ground- and surface water.     

A comparative study on mesozooplankton abundance and diversity between a protected and an unprotected coastal area of Andaman Islands

The study was carried out to understand the variability in phytoplankton production (Chlorophyll a) and mesozooplankton diversity from two different shallow coastal regions of south Andaman viz. Port Blair Bay (PBB), the only real urban area among the islands and Mahatma Gandhi Marine National Park, a Marine Protected Area (MPA) at Wandoor. Seasonal sampling was carried out during the Northeast monsoon (NEM—November 2005), Intermonsoon (IM—April 2006), and Southwest monsoon (SWM—August 2006). Significant (P?<?0.05) seasonal variation was observed in the environmental variables at both the regions. Higher average chlorophyll a (Chl. a) and mesozooplankton standing stock were observed at PBB compared to MPA, but the seasonal variation observed was marginal at both the study areas. Chl. a showed a steep increasing gradient from outer to the inner regions of the PBB. The number of zooplankton taxa recorded at both areas was quite similar, but marked differences were noticed in their relative contribution to the total abundance. Eventhough the Copepoda dominated at both the areas, the non-copepod taxa differed significantly between the regions. Dominance of carnivores such as siphonophores and chaetognaths were noticed at PBB, while filter feeders such as appendicularians and decapod larvae were more abundant at MPA. A total of 20 and 21 copepod families was recorded from PBB and MPA, respectively. Eleven species of chaetognaths were observed as common at both areas. Larval decapods were found to be predominant at MPA with 20 families; whereas, at PBB, only 12 families were recorded. In the light of the recent reports on various changes occurring in the coastal waters of the Andaman Islands, it is suspected that the difference in Chl. a as well as the mesozooplankton standing stock and community structure observed between the two study areas may be related to the various anthropogenic events influencing the coastal waters.     

Developmental strategies for sustainable ecosystem on mine spoil dumps: a case of study

An important goal of ecological rehabilitation is to accelerate natural successional processes to increase biological productivity, soil fertility and biotic control over biogeochemical fluxes within the recovering ecosystems. A new approach called Microbe Assisted Green Technology (MAGT) is an integrated biotechnological approach developed at National Environmental Engineering Research Institute (NEERI) through exhaustive laboratory as well as field studies and serve as a model for land reclamation and development of lush green vegetation on mine overburdens. One year old seedlings of native tree species were planted on 6.3 ha area of manganese mine overburden at Gumgaon under Manganese Ore India Ltd., Maharashtra, India. Continuous efforts resulted in nutrient rich soil with high N, P, K and organic carbon; well developed biodiversity, including bacteria, fungi, higher plants (more than 350 species) and different classes of animals. Planted trees accumulated 698 t ha( - 1) above ground biomass and 143 t ha( - 1) below ground mass. This was achieved in 18 years by MAGT, which otherwise takes hundreds of years.     

Natural and anthropogenic controls on sediment composition of an arid coastal environment: Sharm Obhur,Red Sea,Saudi Arabia

The present study investigated the natural and anthropogenic processes that control the composition of the bottom sediments of Sharm Obhur, Red Sea. Mineralogical analysis using XRD indicated that the sediments consist of carbonate and non-carbonate minerals. Elemental interrelationships allowed differentiating two groups of elements of different sources and origin. Elements that are in the same group are positively correlated, while they correlate negatively with elements of the other group. The first group includes silicon, Al, Fe, Mn, Mg, vanadium (V), chromium (Cr), Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn, whereas the other group includes Ca, Sr, and CaCO₃. The highest concentration levels of the first group and the highest content of non-carbonate minerals were obtained from the sediments near the head of the sharm (zone A), whereas the sediments near the mouth of the sharm (zone B) yielded high concentrations of second group and carbonate minerals. Metal enrichment and contamination factors and pollution load index were calculated. The values of these indices differentiate two groups of metals: lithogenic and non-lithogenic. Except for lead (Pb) at one sampling site, metals in zone A sediments are of lithogenic source, supplied to the sharm either naturally by aeolian transportation and through Wadi Al-Kuraa'a during rare but major floods or by human activities such as dumping and shore protection. Non-lithogenic Cr, Pb, V, and Mn were documented from some sampling sites in zone B, and their occurrences are related to waste disposal and fossil fuel combustion.     

Fine-resolution mapping of wildfire fuel types for Canada: Fuzzy logic modeling for an Alberta pilot area

The Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System (CFFDRS) is used daily across Canada for evaluating forest fire danger. Fuel-type information is one of the inputs required by the models used in the CFFDRS. In this project, three fuel-type maps with a 25 m resolution were produced for a pilot study area located in Alberta using land cover only; land cover and biomass; and, land cover, biomass and leaf area index data derived from satellite imagery. The relationships between inputs and fuel types were determined mainly by the opinions of forest fire scientists and incorporated into a computer program using fuzzy set methodology. Not all the CFFDRS fuel types could be distinguished using these inputs; three of the coniferous types had to be grouped into one common fuel type. Overall accuracy was between 74 and 83% based on ground-truth comparisons. The most accurate map resulted from land cover and biomass data. Detailed accuracy assessment indicated that the overall accuracy increased up to 86% if ambiguous fuel type identification was considered. No combination of inputs was able to define a fuel type with absolute certainty, which is a reflection of differing expert opinions and the small number of inputs used to produce the maps.