Time series analysis of coal mine accident experience

This study investigates several forecasting techniques that can be useful to mine safety managers for studying mine accident rate behavior. Three time series models were studied for extrapolation of accident rates. These models are applied to historical accident incidence data from a coal mine. Further, a method is presented for evaluating the three models for the selection of an appropriate model. For this particular mine application, it is concluded that the more complex Box-Jenkins ARMA model as well as first order autoregressive model do not give better results than the simple exponential smoothing model. However, when the random variations or autocorrelations in the accident experience rates between periods are different, the models may predict differently. As such, specific models must be developed for each mine on the basis of statistical analysis of the mine accident experience data over time. Moreover, the importance of incorporating human judgement to interpret the results of statistical forecasting cannot be overemphasized. Integration of policy or operating changes, which may impact mine safety performance, with statistical forecasting techniques is essential to arrive at a realistic prediction of future performance.     

煤矿瓦斯灾害事故频发的原因及其对策分析

1 煤矿安全生产形势与现状 我国是世界上灾害最严重的国家之一,近十年,每年平均灾害损失近1600亿元,相当于国民生产总值的3.8%,这一比例是发达国家的10倍以上.在众多的灾害中,伴随矿业生产的动力现象(冲击地压、煤与瓦斯突出)、瓦斯、粉尘、水灾和火灾等灾害事故,不仅造成人民生命财产的巨大损失和环境问题,而且还制约着矿业生产的发展,乃至整个国民经济和社会的可持续发展.中国的矿业事故是所有工伤事故中最为严重,造成的死亡人数仅次于公路交通,在各种人为显性事故灾害中居第二位,矿业灾害中尤以瓦斯灾害最为突出,是我国矿业发展中亟待解决的重大问题.     

我国煤矿事故的特征及微观原因分析

按照事故总量、所有制结构和事故类型对我国煤矿安全事故分析,虽然近几年我国安全生产形势有所好转,事故起数和死亡人数都有不同程度的下降,但事故总量依然很大,与发达国家相比还有一定差距,安全生产形势依然严峻。从微观层面分析了主要原因,包括开采自然条件复杂、管理方法和技术装备水平有限、煤矿企业超能力生产以及从业人员素质不高等。     

矿井下着火点位置数值模拟研究

矿井煤炭自燃是煤矿五大自然灾害之一,而煤炭自燃隐蔽着火点位置的确定是解决煤炭自燃问题的关键。本文结合实际情况将火源位置的确定问题归结为热传导方程的寻源反问题。在理想状态下,把煤矿井下热传导的三维模型简化为二维模型,建立热传导方程及初始条件和边界条件,在matlab中编制了有限差分程序对井下着火点的温度场进行了正反演模拟。数值模拟结果表明:该方法能够较准确地反演出火源的特性,并随着离散化程度的提高,离散解逐渐逼近真实解。通过本文的数值模拟我们得知有限差分法求解热传导寻源反演的方法是解决矿井隐蔽火源发火点位置的有效途径之一,对矿井防、灭火研究具有较高的理论和实际应用价值。     

煤矿井下噪声危害分析及对策

煤矿井下噪声作为一种强污染和安全隐患并未得到充分的重视,为了说明加强井下噪声治理工作的必要性,分源分析了煤矿井下的噪声产生及其强度.分析结果表明煤矿高强度噪声污染可对井下工人的身体产生特异性和非特异性危害,同时也可直接或间接导致各种事故的发生,为矿井安全生产埋下了隐患.从井下噪声的产生、传递、接受三方面分别提出了降低和解决矿井噪声危害的方法和对策,得出不仅需要改进现有井下防噪技术,而且需要加强矿井行政管理,提高工人的防噪意识,才可降低矿井噪声的危害.但彻底根治煤矿井下噪声危害是一个综合性的难题,需要煤炭工业整体的发展和社会各界提高对劳动保护的重视程度.     

安全评价五步法在煤矿事故防治中的应用研究

针对我国安全管理手段落后,安全评价机构不可能对瞬时变化的煤矿生产系统进行详细评价的问题,提出了一种简单、快速的评价方法——安全评价五步法.安全评价五步法的实施步骤为:停止操作;查找安全隐患;判断隐患对人身、财产和环境的危害程度;对风险进行控制;如果控制有效则恢复操作,否则重新开始下一轮五步风险评价.在评价过程中进一步结合层次分析法和模糊评价法对危险因素进行评价.应用安全评价五步法对龙泉煤矿03采煤工作面顶板的安全状况进行了评价,评价结果与实际相符,验证了安全评价五步法的有效性.基于安全评价五步法可建立实时、动态的控制风险的方法体系,及时进行修正更新,从而使企业形成具有预防和矫正功能的自组织机制,进而实现安全管理工作的闭环控制,提高工作效率,预防事故的发生.     

一起煤仓爆炸事故分析

煤仓在一定的条件下会聚积瓦斯 ,而瓦斯达到一定的浓度 ,且氧气含量足够时 ,遇明火则会发生爆炸。因此 ,在建煤仓时 ,应使其便于观察煤仓的储煤情况 ;用明火测煤仓储煤量是绝对应禁止的。     

Pressure characteristics and dynamic response of coal mine refuge chamber with underground gas explosion

Coal mine refuge chambers are new devices for coal mine safety which can provide basic survival conditions after gas explosion. In order to simulate the propagation of underground methane/air mixture blast wave, and check structural safety of coal mine mobile refuge chamber, an underground tunnel model and a refuge chamber model have been established based on explicit nonlinear dynamic ANSYS/LS-DYNA 970 program. Results show that the reflected wave pressure on the impact surface was about two times higher than that on the incident one. The relationship between the pressure fields of the chamber was analyzed. The maximum pressure of gas explosion reached about 0.71 MPa, and the pulse width was 360 ms. The maximum absolute displacement and stress occurs at the main door center and the connection of stiffeners and the front plate, respectively. The entire coal mine mobile refuge chamber was in elastic state and its strength and stiffness meet the safety requirements. The cabin door, the front plate and the connecting flange at cabin back as well as the stiffeners on each side were the most critical components. Suggestions were put forward for the refuge chamber.     

基于激波理论的新兴煤矿煤与瓦斯突出事故研究

通过分析新兴煤矿煤与瓦斯突出事故,发现在事故中由于煤与瓦斯突出事故诱发了激波的生成,瞬间产生的巨大超压,引起风流逆向,大量瓦斯随逆向风流从突出地点扩散传播至二水平,接触卸载巷电机车架空线所产生的电火花,从而引发瓦斯爆炸事故。提出了突出激波对事故的影响并分析了突出激波的形成及其破坏作用,研究了影响突出激波破坏作用的影响因素,得出参与突出的瓦斯量和瓦斯压力是影响激波强度的关键因素。有助于了解突出后的气流动力演化规律,并为煤与瓦斯突出事故的防灾、救灾措施的制定以及提高矿井的抗灾能力提供了参考。     

煤矿斜井串车提升跑车事故原因分析

为了防止斜井串车提升跑车事故的发生,必须管理好提升系统和阻车器两个部分.因为这两部分设备、器材工作状况的好坏和作业人员的规范操作,直接影响提升系统的安全.本文应用故障树分析方法,通过对煤矿斜井串车提升跑车事故的分析,提出了控制斜井跑车基本事件发生的途径,为斜井提升系统安全管理提供科学依据.     

煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的系统动力学仿真研究

为了深入探讨煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的影响机理,针对煤矿井下安全环境的复杂性和特殊性,建立了煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性的系统动力学仿真模型,采用变异系数法确定各影响因素的权重系数,通过文献调研和问卷调查,完成了煤矿井下安全系统脆弱性仿真。结果表明:设备系统对安全系统暴露度效果最显著;环境系统对安全系统敏感度效果最显著;员工系统和管理系统对安全系统适应度效果最显著。为了有效提升煤矿井下安全系统水平,煤矿企业需要通过改进设备系统（尤其是员工安全保障品）来降低安全系统暴露度,通过完善环境管理（尤其是尘毒治理情况）来降低安全系统敏感度,通过加强员工系统和管理系统（尤其是员工违规操作和安全监督检查）来提升安全系统适应度。     

Aerosol concentration and particle size distributions in underground excavations of a hard coal mine

Deposition of aerosols in the respiratory system depends inter alia on their size and the respiratory tract deposition is appreciable for nanometer-sized particles. This article presents the results of measurements of size distributions of aerosols in the range of several nanometers up to about 20?μm in the underground mine excavations of an active hard coal mine. The study included practically all particles of a respirable fraction. The results showed that a high concentration of fine and ultrafine aerosols occurs in key underground workplaces especially during mining machine operations, although their contribution to total mass concentration is usually negligible.     

煤矿井下不同作业场所的职业健康风险定量评价

为评估煤矿井下工人面临的职业健康风险,采用特征化分析和货币化法,提出煤矿井下不同作业场所职业健康风险的定量评价方法。对井下主要作业场所进行划分,收集各作业场所粉尘、噪声和热环境的清单数据,进行特征化分析,将粉尘、噪声和热环境对工人的健康风险影响量化,最后进行货币化,使评价结果赋予经济意义。结果表明:平煤某矿的职业健康风险为715.47万元,主要作业场所职业健康风险由大到小依次为回采、掘进、煤仓口、锚喷作业点和胶带运输转载,评价结果可为煤矿职业健康管理提供更全面的决策依据。     

矿井综采作业面毒害气体积聚现象的数值模拟研究

本文研究矿井综采作业面附近毒害气体的积聚过程和分布规律。由"U"型通风作业面实际情况出发,提出作业面几何模型和气体流动的动力学控制方程,运用数值分析方法跟踪以CH_4和CO为代表的毒害气体在正常通风作业面的积累和分布情况。计算结果证实,作业面煤层和采空回填区释放出的CH_4和CO因局部涡流作用在回风巷隅角积聚,气体浓度经历升高而后逐渐稳定的过程;设备附近的毒害气体积聚过程与回风巷隅角类似,但积聚速度较快。迎风面附近CH_4和CO气体浓度相对较低;受上浮效应影响,背风面的毒害气体浓度积聚过程主要发生在背风面中上部。在常规通风条件下,局部CH_4浓度已超出安全规程允许的最高值,CO浓度亦达到危害人体健康的水平。本项工作获得的认识为作业面附近毒害气体监测和控制提供指导。     

煤矿井下主要设备噪声源测定分析研究

煤矿地面噪声防治已经受到人们的重视,但煤矿井下噪声仍被人们所忽视,对它研究的不多。通过对开滦集团东欢坨煤矿和荆各庄煤矿进行井下噪声测量,制作噪声频谱图和噪声传播衰减趋势图,分析井下噪声的频谱特性和衰减变化,为煤矿井下降噪提供依据。结果表明所测得的煤矿井下各点噪声强度均大于90dB（A）,且以中高频率为主,所以应当采取相应的针对性措施为煤矿井下进行降噪处理。     

Factors associated with occupational injury severity in the New South Wales underground coal mining industry

The relationship between a large number of mine and mine worker characteristics and injury severity was examined using multiple regression techniques. The study was based on data extracted from the New South Wales (N.S.W.) Joint Coal Board's computer based accident/incident reporting system describing 21,372 non-fatal, lost-time injurious incidents that occurred in the N.S.W. underground coal mining industry during the 4 year period from 1 July 1986 to 30 June 1990. The number of days lost as a result of an injurious incident was the best available proxy measure of injury severity. Over the study period, the number of days lost per 100,000 tonnes of raw coal production declined by 73%. Over the same period, injurious incidents involving more than 20 days off work, which constituted only 16% of all injurious incidents in underground mines, resulted in 75% of the total days lost for the whole N.S.W. underground coal mining industry. Factors that had practical importance and that were significantly associated with injury severity included mine worker's age, part of the body injured, type of accident, agency of accident, and mine worker activity. Factors not important or not significant in their relationship with injury severity were: time into shift, previous hours worked, mine location of incident, occupation, work experience, frequency of task, shift, and mining region. This study suggests that factors related to the susceptibility of a mine worker's body tissue to damage or repair, and factors related to the concentration of energy on the mine worker by vehicle and environmental characteristics are important determinants of injury severity.     

多软件联合的煤矿三维数值建模方法及其应用

为了解决复杂三维地质模型构建耗时费力、难度大的问题,提出了一种联合多个软件的复杂三维地质模型快速构建的方法,以钻孔信息为基础资料,利用3DMINE建立岩（煤）层等高线,以dxf文件形式导入GOCAD生成岩（煤）层点阵数据文件,利用SURFER对点阵数据进行网格化处理,导入RHIRO软件之中生成ANSYS可读取的iegs文件,经过ANSYS划分网格后导入FLAC3D中进行数值计算。以山东郓城煤矿的地质模型构建为例进行介绍,给出了以该方法进行地应力反演后得到的区域应力场分布云图。通过多个煤矿应用表明:该方法建模速度快,摒弃了繁杂命令流式建模方法,通过数据的逐步对接,减少了中间过程的人为干扰和误差,兼顾了ANSYS优良的网格划分功能和FLAC3D数值计算能力,且效果较好,可在其他领域和行业复杂地质模型构建中推广使用。     

Depth perception,dark adaptation,vigilance and accident proneness of Chinese coal mine workers

To explore the relationships between human factors and accident proneness of coal mine workers, the depth perception, dark adaptation and vigilance abilities of 239 Chinese coal mine workers were tested and their accident proneness was surveyed with an accident proneness questionnaire. The results indicated that dark adaptation and vigilance abilities of the mine workers declined with increasing age. Vigilance had a significant negative relationship with accident proneness. There were significant differences in vigilance between coal mine workers doing different types of work. Individual difference in vigilance was relevant to the type of work that an individual did in a coal mine. The dark adaptation index had a significant positive relationship with accident proneness. Coal mine workers with weaker dark adaptation ability were also more accident prone. Some ergonomics recommendations concerning coal mine safety management in China are proposed.     

煤矿井下喷雾降尘影响因素的试验研究

为提高煤矿井下喷雾降尘效率和改善作业环境,研究相关影响因素与降尘效果间的关系.基于自行设计的喷雾降尘试验系统,采用粉尘质量浓度测定仪对井下常用的螺旋形压力喷嘴在不同喷雾压力、喷嘴直径、风流粉尘质量浓度及巷道风速下的降尘效果进行了系统的测定.结果表明,1)随喷雾压力增加,全尘和呼吸性粉尘的降尘效率均不断增加;但当喷雾压力增加至8 MPa后,继续提高喷雾压力,降尘效率的提高不明显.2)在相同喷雾压力下,随喷嘴直径增加,全尘降尘效率不断增加;而呼吸性粉尘降尘效率先增加后减小,在喷嘴直径为1.5 mm时达到最大值.在耗水量相同的情况下,随喷嘴直径增加,全尘和呼吸性粉尘降尘效率均下降.3)在井下喷雾降尘中,当耗水量不受限制时,为同时确保全尘和呼吸性粉尘的降尘效率,选择直径为1.5mm的喷嘴较为合适;当耗水量受限制时,宜选择直径为1.2mm的喷嘴.4)随风流粉尘质量浓度增加,全尘和呼吸性粉尘的降尘效率均有所提高.5)随巷道风速增加,全尘和呼吸性粉尘的降尘效率均呈现一定程度的下降,且巷道风速对呼吸性粉尘的影响更为明显.对于煤矿井下喷雾降尘,工作面风速对全尘降尘效率的影响并不明显,但对呼吸性粉尘降尘效率有较大的影响.     

地下铁矿扩界开采地表影响范围预测

矿山开采活动形成的地下空区往往会对地表造成一定的影响,为确保矿山的安全生产并提供地表影响范围计算的科学依据,现根据某铁矿采用下向胶结充填法采矿需进行扩界开采的工程实际,将该矿的地表影响范围运用概率积分法进行预测。在已知该矿9条勘探线矿体形状的基础上,根据图件可得矿体的埋深、倾角、产状等基础资料,对于较薄矿体以及尖灭部位需做适当的处理,提供更为客观正确的计算数据。以地表沉陷数值的大小为参考标准运用概率积分法计算出地表移动边界和需监测范围,并计算倾斜、曲率和水平应变判断地表建筑物是否位于安全区。可得矿区周边房屋均处于安全区内和地表移动边界之外,扩界开采对地表影响较小,为同类工程提供参考和建议。