Less is more: Spectres of scarcity and the politics of resource access in the upstream oil sector

Our objective in this paper is to understand the significance of the peak oil claim for the large, publicly-traded oil companies to whom the tasks of finding oil, extracting it and delivering it to market have been allocated. On the face of it, peak oil would appear to offer the ultimate solution to a problem that has plagued the international oil industry for the last one hundred years: how to organise scarcity in the face of prodigious abundance. We examine how publicly-traded oil firms (‘Big Oil’) are engaging with the discourse and science of peak oil, and find that peak oil positions firms like Exxon, BP and Shell in a number of different and quite complex ways: as a beneficiary (of a higher price regime), but also as a victim (of shrinking reserves) and a suspect (for under-investing in exploration or exploiting reserves too rapidly). We find a surprising lack of consensus among Big Oil about the significance of peak oil’s core claim for an imminent, permanent decline in the production of conventional grades of crude, and we conclude that peak oil is not regarded as strategic priority for oil producers (the contrast here with climate change is instructive). To understand why this is the case we turn from the physical science-based account of peak oil to political economy, and examine the contradictory character of Big Oil’s current position. We show how the strong financial returns to Big Oil in the last few years mask a precarious structural position when it comes to reserves access and reserves replacement. Critically the origins of this squeeze originate primarily above-ground: in the ownership of reserves, the politics of resource access and the changing structure of the international oil industry, and not below-ground in geological limits. Accordingly, we reject the simple assumption that increasing geological scarcity explains/justifies high returns, and argue that the relative marginalisation of peak oil within Big Oil’s strategic concerns reflects the way it misdiagnoses the cause of oil companies’ woes when it comes to finding and replacing reserves. We conclude that peak oil’s claim of physically-induced scarcity obfuscates rather than illuminates when it comes to understanding the opportunities for - and constraints on - accumulation in the upstream oil sector.     

Some things old, some things new: The spatial representations and politics of change of the peak oil relocalisation movement

Despite continued uncertainty about the physical realities and political, economic and social implications of peak oil, combined concerns about oil scarcity, climate change and globalisation has spawned an energetic relocalisation movement dedicated to achieving a comprehensive reduction in oil dependency through community-scale initiatives. This paper uses a discourse approach to examine the emergence, geographical spread and practices of the Transition Network, a UK-originated relocalisation movement now involving 186 local initiatives in the UK and other countries. We trace the movement’s drawing upon, and innovation from, discourses and techniques used by other grassroots environmental movements to promote a spatial representation of peak oil as an inevitable and geographically undiscriminating problem, and its use of addiction metaphors and participatory techniques to promote personal and community-scale energy descent initiatives as a viable and necessary alternative to globalisation. We also analyse the spatial representations and techniques used in the Network’s “rhizomic” spread across multiple localities around the world and embedding in communities where relocalisation initiatives are established. We conclude by examining the future challenges these spatial constructions of peak oil pose for the relocalisation movement.     

Eco-localisation as a progressive response to peak oil and climate change - A sympathetic critique

This paper critically but sympathetically examines eco-localisation as a response to ‘peak oil’ and to reduce the emission of CO₂ to avoid dangerous climate change. Rather than seeing the politics of climate change and peak oil as in some way ‘post-political’, the paper argues that protagonists of localised economies are developing radical new conceptions of livelihood and economy that directly cut against the logic of growth-based capitalist economic strategies and elite conceptualisations of economic development. Building on development theory, the paper develops a conceptualisation of ‘immanent’ and ‘intentional’ localisation, with the former a simple move by businesses of economic activities that have high transport costs closer to their markets. Advocates of intentional localisation are working more pro actively at grassroots level to develop local solutions to peak oil and climate change based on developing less resource-intensive yet enjoyable and fulfilling livelihoods in more localised economies. In discussing the contested nature of localisation, the paper engages with critiques of eco-localisation from neoliberal advocates and from the left, before concluding that localisation should be seen more as a different calculation of where economic activities would be located, which aims to reduce oil consumption and CO₂ emissions, rather than a call for autarky. The paper concludes by arguing that analyses of the scale of economic networks need to pay more attention of the materiality of oil consumption and CO₂ emissions, and that scales cannot be seen as socially constructed.     

At the base of Hubbert’s Peak: Grounding the debate on petroleum scarcity

M. King Hubbert’s 1956 prediction of a ‘peak’ in US oil production has spurred a durable and divisive debate on the exhaustion of the petroleum resource. Pitting physical against economic explanations of resource scarcity, the peak oil debate has seemingly sunk into the well-worn grooves of a long history of scarcity debates. Yet, as this paper argues, this ‘stale dichotomy’ can partly be attributed to a severance from the contexts and ideas that informed Hubbert’s mathematical calculations. Specifically, this paper examines the broader influences on the peak oil model: Hubbert’s career in the newly formed field of geophysics; his personal concern with the relationship between energy and population growth; and his ties to Technocracy, Inc., a social movement originating in the US that aimed to replace political and business control with a group of specialist engineers and technicians. The paper further emphasizes the importance of institutional and political interests to the arguments launched against Hubbert, and in motivating change in this opposition over time. Last, it makes the case that the contemporary de-contextualization of Hubbert’s model has contributed towards a narrow focus of discussions within the oil industry and in certain governments on predicting the timing of a global peak, without addressing the wider questions implied by Hubbert’s model.     

Community Development Finance Institutions (CDFIs): Geographies of financial inclusion in the US and UK

The financial exclusion of enterprise is a concept that has been largely neglected by economic geographers. This is surprising given the attention dedicated to personal financial exclusion and alternative sources of finance. This paper compares financial inclusion policies in deprived areas of the United States (US) and United Kingdom (UK) through the example of Community Development Finance Institutions (CDFIs). CDFIs help overcome financial exclusion by providing local sources of loan finance to micro, small-and-medium-sized enterprises and social enterprises. Drawing upon interviews with key actors within the CDFI sector in the US and UK respectively, the paper aims to compare the CDFI landscape across the US and UK through the provision of finance for enterprise. This is in order to understand the geographies of finance that are being created by such alternative financial institutions thereby contributing to financial inclusion debates. The research concludes that although CDFIs do provide an important source of finance to excluded enterprises, policy initiatives have created uneven geographical coverage and market gaps leaving marked spaces of financial exclusion.     

新疆博格达山北麓二叠系油页岩成矿特征及资源潜力

博格达山北麓山前弧形冲断褶皱带上发育强烈变形的二叠系油页岩,产出层位为中二叠统芦草沟组。纵向上芦草沟组上段油页岩较下段发育,而品质下段好于上段,横向上以阜康县三工河地区油页岩最发育,含油率高,由此向东、向西两侧油页岩逐渐减薄,品质降低。芦草沟组油页岩形成于高盐度的半深水-深水陆缘近海湖泊环境,属低熟-成熟优质生油岩。油页岩产状以纸状、层状和砂质油页岩3种类型为主,纸状油页岩品质最好。利用体积法估算博格达山北麓芦草沟组油页岩资源为652.39×10⁸t,技术可采油页岩资源量226.5×10⁸t,页岩油资源量为54×10⁸t,技术可采页岩油资源量18.8×10⁸t,可回收页岩油资源量14.1×10⁸t。三工河地区油页岩品质好,厚度大,埋藏浅,油页岩和页岩油资源量大,是进一步勘查与开发的首选地区。     

Geographies of security and statehood in Norway’s ‘Battle of the North’

In this paper, we explore how ‘peak oil’ anxieties are woven into the spaces and practices of the state in Norway and the consequences of this for environmental justice and the public sphere more widely. We focus in particular on an ongoing struggle over access to hydrocarbon deposits in the Norwegian Arctic, the so-called ‘Battle of the North’. We use this dispute to highlight three wider theoretical points regarding (i) the continuing relevance of the state in the governing of nature-society relations, (ii) the increasingly fragmented and fluid nature of state space, and (iii) the significance of ‘security’ as a term around which social, economic and environmental tensions pivot. The paper concludes by reflecting on current efforts to prevent new oil activities in the north of Norway.     

Oil in parallax: Scarcity, markets, and the financialization of accumulation

Relations between oil scarcity, production, investment, and price have become increasingly mediated and shaped by financial markets. Yet, the mediation of finance is absent in peak oil narratives, which posit a direct relation between the availability of oil in the ground and its price on the market. The orthodox critique of peak oil deconstructs its basis in geological limits only to reproduce the argument from scarcity and reverse the relationship between the price of oil and its availability on the market. Both narratives are formulated in physical space and do not account for the degree to which the oil market has become infused by the logic of finance. Critical political economy, on the other hand, demonstrates the extent to which finance has transformed capital accumulation, only to render material production somewhat irrelevant to the accumulation of capital. This is equally problematic, given oil companies’ continuing investment in production and reserve expansion. The relation between accumulation, investment, and production under finance needs to be examined rather than discarded. I argue that finance has emancipated the circulation of oil in the world market from its circulation in physical space, fragmenting the oil market into a physical and a financial component, but reintegrating both under the dominance of financial logic without transcending their duality and their differences. I explicate this relation by examining the circulation of oil in trade and investment under the dictates of finance to open questions on current theorizations of oil scarcity in relation to prices, markets, and investment.     

西北地区油页岩地质特征、资源现状及其开发利用条件分析

中国西北地区预测和查明的油页岩总资源/储量至少是400亿t,折合页岩油约20亿t,探明的储量多为小型—中型规模。油页岩矿床主要有3种类型:中、晚石炭世滨浅海相沉积矿床、晚二叠世湖湾-湖相沉积矿床以及中生代内陆湖泊相沉积矿床。不同矿区面积相差较大,油页岩单层厚度一般为1～5m,总厚度在不同矿区变化也较大。油页岩多为褐黑色、黑色,略具油脂光泽,含油率5%～10%,矿体多呈层状展布,中、晚石炭世和侏罗纪形成的油页岩矿床多与煤层共生,时代越新,油页岩稀土元素丰度越高。西北地区已查明的油页岩矿均位于大、中城市附近,具有较好的开发利用前景,内蒙古巴格毛德地区是很有远景的找矿区。     

Weathering of fuel oil spill on the east Mediterranean coast, Ashdod, Israel

Residual fuel oil spilled into the sea from the Eshkol power station on 8 February, 1998 contaminated about 9 km of the foreshore north of the Ashdod harbour. A study of the aliphatic, polycyclic alkane and polyaromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) composition of the spilled oil shows rapid weathering in the early stages followed by gradual slowdown after about three months. Weathering of isoprenoids and PAH compounds and variation in Pr/Ph ratio appear to occur almost contemporaneously with that of n-alkanes, at a relatively moderate level of degradation, when much of the >C₂₀ n-alkane envelope is still well preserved. Depletion of various compounds in accordance with molecular size rather than molecular structure appears to imply that physical weathering processes, i.e. evaporation and perhaps flushing due to wave energy, might have played an important role in the degradation of the spilled residual fuel oil in this study case.     

The first peak ground motion attenuation relationships for North of Vietnam

The first attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) for northern Vietnam are obtained in this study. Ground motion data are collected by a portable broadband seismic network in northern Vietnam as a part of cooperation between the Institute of Geophysics, Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technology, Vietnam and Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taiwan. The database comprises a total of 330 amplitude records by 14 broadband stations from 53 shallow earthquakes, which were occurred in and around northern Vietnam in the period between 01/2006 and 12/2009. These earthquakes are of local magnitudes between 1.6 and 4.6, focal depths less than 30 km, and epicentral distances less than 500 km. The new attenuation relationships for PGA and PGV are:

log₁₀(PGA)=-0.987+0.7521M_L-log₁₀(R)-0.00475R,     

Variation of i-butane / n-butane ratio in oils of the Romashkino oil field for the period of 1982–2000: Probable influence of the global seismicity on the fluid migration

Changes in oil composition in the course of the development depend on numerous factors including both technogenic and natural ones. Physicochemical compositional analysis of 2456 oil samples collected in the Romashkino field in 1982–2000 from two productive strata (Devonian and Carboniferous reservoirs) has indicated statistically significant variations in the i-butane to n-butane content ratio (i-b / n-b). This ratio is characterized not only by a trend of steady growth but also by a significant variation with a period of 4.5 years. The i-b / n-b ratio variations are well correlated (R² = 0.61) between these two reservoirs (Devonian and Carboniferous) occurring at different depths. However, the average i-b / n-b ratios recorded in these reservoirs are essentially different (0.44 and 0.55, respectively). A possible relationship is discussed between the i-b / n-b ratio variations and those in global seismicity.     

Visualisation of bacterial degradation and mobilisation of oil in a porous medium

 Bacterial interaction with oil and sea water, in a porous medium, was studied using a transparent micro model mounted on a cybernetic-controlled positioning board of an inverted microscope. This was interfaced with computer-operated image analysis and surveillance equipment. Consecutive flooding of the model allowed oil to become trapped by capillary forces. Hydrocarbonoclastic bacteria were inoculated. The interaction of biofilm and oil was monitored during a period of 25 days, while mineral salts were supplied intermittently. A unique feature of biofilm behaviour was discovered. The phenomenon is discussed, and calculations are presented. A possible explanation of the phenomenon appears to be local reductions of the surface tension. The phenomenon helps explain why bacteria are able to mobilise oil trapped by capillary forces without reducing the interfacial tension to a level that leads to an increase in the capillary number sufficient to explain incremental oil recovery. The experimental design is believed to be suitable for studying biofilm behaviour on the pore level. Received: 26 January 1998 · Accepted: 9 July 1998     

樊家川油田储层渗流单元分析及其剩余油分布

樊家川油田已进入开发后期,为了精确预测层内剩余油潜力,解剖更小级别的储层非均质单元分布,在储层沉积微相研究的基础上,应用储层FZI值进行单一河流沉积单元的渗流单元划分,并讨论了成因砂体与渗流单元的关系以及渗流单元中剩余油分布规律,从而提高了剩余油预测的精度。     

河南濮城油田沙二上2+3砂层组末端扇沉积特征及剩余油分布

本文以濮城油田沙二上2+3砂层组为例,分析了末端扇储层的沉积特征,建立了末端扇沉积模式,确定了剩余油分布。末端扇储层分为近端亚相、中部亚相和远端亚相,中部亚相的分流河道微相是主要储集砂体。剩余油平面上主要集中在分流河道侧翼过渡区及近水道漫溢、远水道漫溢和分散的井网难控制的小透境体中,垂向上集中在正韵律顶部和反韵律底部等物性差的地方。二砂组主要富集在S₂³、S₂⁴小层的近气顶区,三砂组主要富集在S₃⁴、S₃⁵小层的濮53、文17断块构造高部位及注采不完善的地区。     

复杂断块油田弧形断层对油气的聚集作用——以东辛油田东营组油藏为例

以东辛油田东营组油藏为例,在断裂体系研究的基础上,通过对断层垂向封闭性的研究,建立断面正应力与断层封堵能力的关系,发现弧性断层具有独特的控油优势,进而探讨在复杂断块油田中弧性断层的受力机制及形成过程,分析弧形断层的剖面形态及封闭特征,及其对油气藏聚集的控制优势。指出复杂断块油田弧性断层的封闭性优于其他断层,这对寻找构造边缘和构造应力接合部位的次生油藏意义重大。     

高升油田莲花油层主要砂体稠油中的酸性化合物

酸性化合物是辽河稠油的主要化学组成部分。对辽河盆地高升油田莲花油层沙三段４个主要砂体（４、５、６、７砂体）稠油样品的分子地球化学研究表明,其酸性化合在型包括饱和的直链脂肪酸、单甲基支链（异构－和反异构）脂肪酸、类型戊二稀酸、五环三萜类羧酸、甾烷类羧酸、单环芳构有机酸和酚、多环羧酸和少量的氮流化合物。饱和烃和酸性倾合物在各砂体中的存在和分布特征对比分析的结果表明,有机质的分布在各砂体中的变化不能简单     

原油水洗作用与高凝固点原油的成因探讨

高凝固点原油在油藏开采过程中是一个非常棘手的问题,研究高凝固点原油的成因,对于开采过程中降低高凝固点原油的工艺措施具有重大指导意义。对取自大港油田的高凝固点原油样品从轻烃、全烃、饱和烃色质、芳烃色是行测试分析,并结合实际地质情况综合判断,认为该区的高凝固点原油的成因与原油在运移过程中遭受的水洗作用有关,轻烃尤其是苯和甲苯等轻芳烃的散失是造成原油具有高凝固点的重要原因。还对水洗作用对一些常用的原油轻     

世界油页岩资源开发利用现状与发展前景

由于世界原油价格的高涨和常规油气资源的短缺,非常规油气资源中的油页岩以资源丰富、经济性和开发利用的可行性成为21 世纪重要的石油补充和替代能源。世界油页岩资源探明储量折算成页岩油约70%分布在美国,其次集中分布在中国、俄罗斯、巴西、加拿大、约旦、澳大利亚和爱沙尼亚等; 中国油页岩资源约85%以上分布在吉林、辽宁和广东省。随着各国重新或开始重视油页岩的开发与利用,油页岩的储量、页岩油的产量和油页岩开发利用的经济价值都呈增长趋势,相应的政策支持力度也在加大。     

油页岩生产技术研究

总结了世界上从油页岩中制取页岩油的两大类生产技术方法:即地面干馏方法和地下转化方法,并总结了各方法的优缺点。根据我国油页岩资源的特点,认为应在发展和改进目前地面干馏技术的同时着力发展地下转化技术,为开采油页岩油进行技术改进。