Long-term statistics of extreme tsunami height at Crescent City

Historically, Crescent City is one of the most vulnerable communities impacted by tsunamis along the west coast of the United States, largely attributed to its offshore geography. Trans-ocean tsunamis usually produce large wave runup at Crescent Harbor resulting in catastrophic damages, property loss and human death. How to determine the return values of tsunami height using relatively short-term observation data is of great significance to assess the tsunami hazards and improve engineering design along the coast of Crescent City. In the present study, the extreme tsunami heights observed along the coast of Crescent City from 1938 to 2015 are fitted using six different probabilistic distributions, namely, the Gumbel distribution, the Weibull distribution, the maximum entropy distribution, the lognormal distribution, the generalized extreme value distribution and the generalized Pareto distribution. The maximum likelihood method is applied to estimate the parameters of all above distributions. Both Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and root mean square error method are utilized for goodness-of-fit test and the better fitting distribution is selected. Assuming that the occurrence frequency of tsunami in each year follows the Poisson distribution, the Poisson compound extreme value distribution can be used to fit the annual maximum tsunami amplitude, and then the point and interval estimations of return tsunami heights are calculated for structural design. The results show that the Poisson compound extreme value distribution fits tsunami heights very well and is suitable to determine the return tsunami heights for coastal disaster prevention.     

海岸工程变化的BJ-1遥感监测分析

 海岸工程对海岸带经济发展和生态环境影响很大。随着海岸工程建设迅猛的发展,采用遥感的方法对海岸工程变化进行遥感监测显得尤为重要。本文以北京一号小卫星(BJ-1)资料为数据源,利用多种变化监测的方法对天津港和曹妃甸港区2006年和2010年的海岸工程变化进行监测。结果显示,波段替换法与SVM分类相结合的方法在2个重点研究区域精度最高,其总体精度和Kappa系数分别为92.35%和0.7902;面向对象的方法精度和稳定性其次,其总体精度和Kappa系数分别为91.77%和0.7732。     

Long-term variation of storm surge-associated waves in the Bohai Sea

When investigating the long-term variation of wave characteristics as associated with storm surges in the Bohai Sea, the Simulating Waves Nearshore(SWAN) model and ADvanced CIRCulation(ADCIRC) model were coupled to simulate 32 storm surges between 1985 and 2014. This simulation was validated by reproducing three actual wave processes, showing that the simulated significant wave height(SWH) and mean wave period agreed well with the actual measurements. In addition, the long-term variations in SWH, patterns in SWH extremes along the Bohai Sea coast, the 100-year return period SWH extreme distribution, and waves conditional probability distribution were calculated and analyzed. We find that the trend of SWH extremes in most of the coastal stations was negative, among which the largest trend was-0.03 m/a in the western part of Liaodong Bay. From the 100-year return period of the SWH distribution calculated in the Gumbel method, we find that the SWH extremes associated with storm surges decreased gradually from the center of the Bohai Sea to the coast. In addition, the joint probability of wave and surge for the entire Bohai Sea in 100-year return period was determined by the Gumbel logistic method. We therefore, assuming a minimum surge of one meter across the entire Bohai Sea, obtained the spatial SWH distribution. The conclusions of this study are significant for offshore and coastal engineering design.     

Stochastic Model for Estimating Extreme Water Level in Port and Coastal Engineering Design

Extreme water level is an important consideration when designing coastal protection structures. However, frequency analysis recommended by standard codes only considers the annual maximum water level, whereas water levels should actually be regarded as a combination of astronomical tide and storm surge. The two impacting factors are both random variables, and this paper discusses their dependency structures and proposes a new joint probability method to determine extreme design water levels. The lognormal, Gumbel, Weibull, Pearson type 3, traditional maximum entropy, and modified maximum entropy distributions are applied to fit univariate data of astronomical tides and storm surges separately, and the bivariate normal, Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank and Clayton copulas are then utilized to construct their joint probability distributions. To ensure that the new design method is suitable for use with typhoon data, the annual occurrence frequency of typhoon processes is considered and corresponding bivariate compound probability distributions are proposed. Based on maximum water level data obtained from Hengmen hydrological station in the Pearl River Basin, China, these probability models are applied to obtain designs for extreme water levels using the largest sum of the astronomical tide and storm surge obtained under fixed joint return periods. These design values provide an improved approach for determining the necessary height of coastal and offshore structures.     

Hydrodynamic conditions in front of a vertical wall with an overhanging horizontal cantilever slab

Transforming wave heights from offshore to the shoreline is the first step of any coastal engineering work. Wave breaking is analyzed to understand hydrodynamic conditions. For vertical breakwaters and sea walls, wave reflection is an important process that affects the determination of the wave height. Many of the design formulas presented in the literature depend on empirical studies based on the structures tested. In this study, the hydrodynamic conditions in front of a vertical wall with an overhanging horizontal cantilever slab with a foreshore slope of 1/20 are determined experimentally under regular wave conditions to assess the applicability of the formulas of Goda (2000) for predicting the nearshore wave height and breaker index equation (Goda, 2010). The selection of wave measurements used to determine the design wave height, the reflection coefficients, and wave breaking is also analyzed, and the reflection equations are derived from the dataset covering different breaker types. Small-scale tests show that the incident wave height is a good representative of the design wave height and that the values predicted by Goda are in good agreement with actual measurements. However, the predicted H_max values are overestimated. In addition, the inception of the wave breaking point is postponed because of the reflection and/or turbulence left over from preceding waves, which is an effect of the vertical wall. At higher water levels, the effect of the vertical wall on the inception point becomes more significant.     

辽东湾海岸地貌近代演化特征

辽东湾海岸类型及其分布受区域地质构造控制。海岸类型可分为:港湾型基岩海岸、岛礁型基岩海岸、岬湾型沙质海岸、平原型淤泥质海岸等4类;潮间带地貌分为海滩、潮滩、岩滩3类;水下堆积地貌主要有水下三角洲及潮下浅滩。受河流输沙影响,淤积先从河口开始,然后向外围扩散。在湾顶部,地貌及内、外动力条件利于海岸淤涨,但受滨岸海洋水文条件制约,发展不均衡,可出现局部短时间的侵蚀后退现象。海岸工程可控制海岸的演化过程,滩涂地带引种植物可促进海岸持续淤涨。     

滨州市海岸带工程地质特征分析

根据该次工程地质调查和钻探工作取得的大量数据,结合收集的钻孔资料,对研究区土体工程地质层进行了系统研究,并依据地层沉积年代、成因类型、地层结构、工程力学性质,对研究区陆域地表以下,海底以下50m深度范围内的土层进行分层研究,并对各层工程地质特征进行了分析,对区内软土分布范围、饱和砂土液化进行了综合研究,为滨州海岸带港口及重大工程规划建设提供系统的基础地质资料和决策依据。     

Selection of environmental conditions for nearshore structure design

1　Introduction　InChina ,coastalcitiesaremostlyregionaleconomicdevelopmentcenters.Becauseoftheirspecialgeogra phiclocations ,typhoonsandassociatedstormsurgescauseheavylossesoflivesandproperties.In 1 992 Qing daowasfloodedduetothecoincidenceoftheastrono m…     

基于承压强度的滨海旅游行为分异特征

在强调幸福的时代,承压强度和旅游行为的关系是值得特别关注的问题。以减压作用明显的滨海旅游目的地为对象,用演绎方法确定压力层次结构,以指标层问题设计测试语句,采用问卷工具以抽样调查手段获得基础数据,通过德尔菲法结合层次分析法得到承压强度值,采用聚类方法得到承压强度的人群类型,利用单因素方差分析和多重变量的交叉列联表分析,发现3种承压强度的人群类型在出游动机、获取信息途径、开支预算、目的地偏好、交通类型5个方面存在显著分异,在出游方式偏好、旅游社选择、旅游住宿3个方面分异不明显。根据研究结论进行管理思考,得到了一些有益的启示。     

Impact of Human Activities on Depositional Process of Tidal Flat in Quanzhou Bay of China

As a very important component of a coastal system,tidal flats come to be a focus of the studies on land-ocean interaction in the coastal zone because those areas are subjected to intense human activities and are highly sensitive to the global change.The Quanzhou Bay,located along the middle part of Fujian coast of China,covers about 136.4km2,and the area of coastal wetland in the entire bay from intertidal to subtidal with 6m of water depth accounts for 96% of the total area.Seven short cores were collected and divided in situ with the interval of 5cm on the coastal wetlands of Quanzhou Bay on April 19,2006.The sediment samples were scattered and the grain sizes were measured by using Mastersizer 2000.Human beings' activities on tidal flat have disturbed the vertical distribution of sediments in stratigraphic sequence and accelerated the sedimentation rates.Grain size analysis results show that the grain size diameters increase and sediment becomes worse sorted towards the sea under the strong human disturbance;Spartina alterniflora can play a role of trapping the fine sediment;but near the bank,the sediment becomes coarse and there are two peak values on frequency curve influenced by the sandpile.The trough formed by human activities along the coastline changes the transport path of water and suspended sediment.The sediments are transported through the trough and deposit in it during the flood;the ebb flow is retarded by the flow output through the adjacent trough,and the deposited sediment can not be re-suspended;then,the sedimentation rate increases.In situ observation show that the sedimentation rate is about 8-10cm/yr.     

THE EROSIONAL PROCESS OF THE SOFT SHORE OF CHINA IN THE RECENT DECADES

ＴＨＥ ＥＲＯＳＩＯＮＡＬ ＰＲＯＣＥＳＳ ＯＦ ＴＨＥ ＳＯＦＴ ＳＨＯＲＥ ＯＦ ＣＨＩＮＡ ＩＮ ＴＨＥ ＲＥＣＥＮＴ ＤＥＣＡＤＥＳ ＷａｎｇＷｅｎｈａｉ（王文海）；ＷｕＳａｎｇｙｕｎ（吴桑云）；ＸｉａＤｏｎｇｘｉｎｇ（夏东兴）（ＦｉｒｓｔＩ...     

基于灰色关联分析法的福建沿海港口经济腹地测度研究

运用灰色系统理论,采用灰色关联分析方法和模型,以2001-2013年间福建沿海主要港口货物吞吐量和内陆省内生产总值的数据为基础,选取数列进行数据处理,通过关联性分布和排序,得到福建沿海港口经济最有影响力的腹地范围和空间分布,实证得出福建沿海港口应重点发展以江西作为主要腹地、兼考虑湖南为次要腹地、湖北和安徽其次考量的结论,最后提出立足腹地实情、结合资源优势互补的经济策略建议,为福建扩展港口经济腹地措施提供理论依据和支持。     

Causes of land loss in Tuvalu,a small island nation in the pacific

Studies on land loss in Tuvalu reveal the following findings. Although both sea level rise and coastal erosion can cause land loss in the tropic Pacific oceanic islands, their mechanisms are different. When sea level rises, the low elevation coastal zone submerges and the erosion datum plane rises, the beach process progresses normally as always, resulting in no beach sediment coarsening. When the sea level is stable, coastal erosion removes finer sediment from reef flat, beach and land, resulting in beach sediment coarsening. The human-induced coastal erosion in the tropic Pacific oceanic islands has the following features. 1) Erosion occurs or intensifies immediately after inappropriate human activities. 2) It occurs near the places having human activities and places related to the above places in sediment supply. 3) It often occurs on original prograding or stable coasts (on lagoon coasts for atolls) because there are more coastal engineering projects and other human activities on such coasts. 4) It is chronic, covering a long period of time. The coastal geological events in Tuvalu islands do not accord with the features resulted from sea level rise but do accord with the features resulted from coastal erosion, particularly from human-induced erosion. The land loss in Tuvalu is mainly caused by inappropriate human activities including coastal engineering and aggregate mining, and partly caused by cyclones. Moreover, all recent measurements (satellite altimetry,thermosteric sea level data and tide observations) so far have not been able to verify any sea level rise around Tuvalu islands.     

基于物理模型试验的多层滑带堆积层滑坡—抗滑桩受力特征

研究抗滑桩的受力特征是进行抗滑桩设计工作的关键。我国三峡库区部分堆积层滑坡发育多层滑带,而目前抗滑桩的设计方法仅针对单层滑坡,因此,对多层滑带堆积层滑坡—抗滑桩受力特征的研究具有重要意义。基于三峡库区堆积层滑坡工程地质特征,开展了多层滑带堆积层滑坡物理试验模型,在滑坡的后缘施加推力来模拟滑坡演化过程,同时监测滑坡—抗滑桩体系的多场信息。试验结果表明,在多层滑带堆积层滑坡的演化过程中,桩身受力表现出了很好的规律性。根据坡表位移的变化趋势,将滑坡演化分为4个阶段,在此基础上对桩身受力进行分析。滑坡推力分布图式中出现了4个极大值,土体抗力分布图式中出现唯一最大值,该试验结果为抗滑桩的设计提供了一定的理论支持。      

基于傅里叶级数的中国沿海地区Tm模型精化研究

本文采用中国沿海地区13个探空站2010~2014年实测地表温度T_s与平均温度T_m数据,利用傅里叶级数分析法精化中国沿海地区T_m模型,并将2015年探空站实测T_m数据与精化模型进行对比检验。结果表明,精化模型在T_m探测方面具有更高的计算精度,其计算大气可降水量的误差概率分布趋近于正态分布,具有较强的稳定性。     

Coastal upwelling and coastal jets in continuously stratified seas

Nonlinear numerical models of continuously stratified seas are developed for vertical sections to study the mechanism of coastal upwelling and coastal jets in two kinds of seas: the so-called finite or closed sea bounded by two vertical coastal coasts, without elevation of sea surface, but with a flat bottom; and the semi-infinite sea bounded by only one vertical coast, with both an elevation of sea surface and a flat or inclined bottom. Constant wind stress in the first case, and constant wind stress or negative wind stress curl in the second case, are abruptly imposed. The key procedure for the mathematical analysis is to calculate the horizontal pressure gradient first by a special treatment. In the first case, the variation of horizontal components of velocity is changed with time to show three successive time intervals. The results show that the width of baroclinic jets depends upon (σS)^1/2, and that distribution of isopycnic lines delineates the warm and cold regions. The relative importance of each term in the equilibrium among forces is thus determined. Distribution of stream function in vertical section reveals the upper and bottom Ekman layers. Two coastal jets are found with different alongshore velocities. The distribution of density anomalies displays the horizontal diffusion adjustment. An unstable case appears at different surface boundary conditions. In the second case, the vertical velocity will be stronger in the sea with less stratification, with an inclined bottom, and with a negative wind stress curl. The horizonatal offshore velocity increases in strength in a sea with inclined bottom and with negative wind stress curl. The vertical circulation pattern reveals the upwelling only. The distribution of density shows the isopycnic lines lifted upward near the shores. Obviously, the range of elevation of sea surface near the shore is larger than that far offshore. The jet width is less than the Rossby radius of deformation. A stronger jet will occur in more shallow water with negative wind stress curl. The coastal jet does not develop when the coefficient of horizontal turbulence increases to a certain limiting value.     

Molecular identification and population differentiation of Aurelia spp. ephyrae in sea cucumber aquaculture ponds of northern China

Aurelia spp. ephyrae have been reported to form blooms in sea cucumber aquaculture ponds in the Bohai and Yellow Seas. To identify the species, we carried out a genetic analysis of Aurelia spp. ephyrae and medusae based on mitochondrial 16 S rRNA gene. Samples offour Aurelia sp. ephyrae populations were collected in sea cucumber aquaculture ponds and samples offour Aurelia sp. medusae populations were collected in coastal waters. Using a BLASTn search, we found that both the ephyrae collected in the aquaculture ponds and medusae collected in coastal waters belong to Aurelia coerulea. Seventeen haplotypes were recovered from the 16 S rRNA gene. The overall haplotype diversity and nucleotide diversity of the 166 A. coerulea individuals were 0.686% and 0.329%, respectively, indicating high haplotype diversity and low nucleotide diversity. Moreover, the haplotype diversity of ephyrae populations were generally lower than that of medusae populations with close sampling points. The genetic differentiation between ephyrae populations collected in the sea cucumber aquaculture ponds and A. coerulea medusae collected in coastal waters was not significant, suggesting the ephyrae populations in the sea cucumber culture ponds were part of the same genetic group as the medusae populations in the coastal waters. Phylogeographic analysis of the 16 S rRNA region revealed that there was no significant correlation between the haplotypes and the geographic distribution of populations. Pairwise fixation index values showed significant genetic differentiation and limited gene flow between A. coerulea population of Weifang and other locations.     

江苏沿海地区土地利用生态价值测算评估

江苏沿海地区生态价值的测算评价对于区域土地合理利用、优化配置具有重要的指导意义。根据江苏沿海地区土地利用和生态服务特征构建了江苏沿海地区耕地、城镇工矿用地、林地和沿海滩涂4个主要地类的生态价值体系以及综合当量因子法、价值量评价法、市场价值法、专家评估法、生产成本法和偿付意愿法等的生态价值测算方法模型,基于土地利用数据、播种面积、产出值、单产价格、降雨量以及废水、废气及烟（粉）尘排放量等数据测算了2011年江苏沿海地区现状土地利用生态价值。结果表明,江苏沿海地区耕地的生态价值均值为6178.95元/hm²、城镇工矿用地的生态价值为-5163.26元/hm²、林地的生态价值为16 438.42元/hm²、沿海滩涂的生态价值为8125.53元/hm²;连云港市、南通市、盐城市的耕地、林地、沿海滩涂都产生了正向的生态价值,共计104.55、4.56、23.28亿元,而这3个城市的建设用地造成了一定的生态价值损失,共计-28.53亿元。     

PT型袖珍贯入仪在海岸带地区工程地质调查中的应用

通过对莱州湾地区工程地质勘察中大量袖珍贯入试验与静力触探试验、标准贯入试验、土工试验数据的对比分析,采用数理统计方法,建立了PT型袖珍贯入阻力与静力触探试验指标、标准贯入试验击数、土的液性指数及压缩模量相关公式。为今后在海岸带地区工程地质勘察中,采用PT型袖珍贯入仪对岩心的现场贯入试验,及时准确地判定土的物理力学性质提供了依据。     

Spatio-temporal distribution of vegetation index and its influencing factors——a case study of the Jiaozhou Bay,China

The coastal zone is an area characterized by intense interaction between land and sea, high sensitivity to regional environmental changes, and concentrated human activities. Little research has investigated vegetation cover changes in coastal zones resulting from climate change and land-use change, with a lack of knowledge about the driving mechanism. Normalized diff erence vegetation index(NDVI) can be used as an indicator for change of the coastal environment. In this study, we analyzed the interannual changes and spatial distribution of NDVI in the coastal zone around Jiaozhou Bay in Qingdao, a coastal city undergoing rapid urbanization in northeast China. The underlying causes of NDVI variations were discussed in the context of climate change and land-use change. Results showed that the spatio-temporal distribution of NDVI displayed high spatial variability in the study area and showed a typical trend of gradually increasing from coastal to inland regions. The significant increase area of NDVI was mainly found in newly added construction land, extending along the coastline towards the inland. Land vegetation cover demonstrated a certain response relationship to sea-land climate change and land-based activities. The impact of land-based human activities was slightly greater than that of sea-land climate change for land vegetation cover. The results indicate that promoting ecological policies can build an ecological security framework of vegetation suitable for the resource characteristics of coastal cities. The framework will buf fer the negative ef fects of sea-land climate change and land-based human activities on vegetation cover and thereby achieve the balance of regional development and ecological benefits in the coastal zone.