太平洋表层海温的年代际变化

众所周知，ENSO(El Nino/ Southern Oscillation)是发生在热带太平洋的年际时间尺度上最强的气候信号，与 El Nino (La Nina)相应的正(负)海温距平(SSTA)主要分布于赤道中东太平洋地区(Rasmusson et al.，1982)。相对于热带太平洋的年际ENSO现象，人们注意到北太平洋海平面气压(SLP)存在更长周期的年代际变化(Trenberth et al.，1994)，有人认为这与北太平洋的表层温度(SST)变化有关(Latif et al.，1994)，也有人认为与热带SST的异常关系更为密切(Jacobs et al.，1994)。20世纪80年代后的ENSO事件和20世纪60，70年代有明显的差别(Wang，1995)，20世纪90年后El Nino发生频数增加，并且在1997和1998年出现了20世纪最强的一次Nino事件(McPhaden，1999)。 因此，不论是作为大气年代际变化可能的一个驱动因子，还是作为年际ENSO的背景场，从整体上了解太平洋SST的年代际时间尺度上的时、空变化特征都是十分重要的。     

1980～1999年热带太平洋次表层盐度年际变化同化数据分析

通过统计方法利用一套海洋同化数据分析了热带太平洋次表层的盐度变化特征.结果表明次表层盐度的年际变化与ENSO相关,且次表层盐度信号区域呈东西方向“跷跷板”的分布.对影响这些次表层的盐度信号区域平均的纬向平流、经向平流、垂直运动和淡水通量异常等因素进行了分析,并且与影响表层盐度年际变化模态的影响因素差异进行了比较,结果表明,纬向平流的异常对表层盐度的异常变化影响较大,而对次表层盐度异常有较大影响的是海水的垂直运动异常.     

赤道太平洋次表层海温异常年际和年代际变率特征与ENSO循环

用美国马里兰大学提供的海洋同化(SODA)月平均资料,分析了赤道太平洋次表层海温异常年际和年代际变率的演化特征,讨论了它们对ENSO循环的影响.结果指出,赤道太平洋次表层海温异常年际和年代际变率具相似的ENSO模分布和演变过程,二者均以赤道西太平洋暖池次表层海温显著的异常中心与赤道东太平洋表层海温异常中心显著反号为主要分布特征,其演变过程通过赤道西太平洋暖池次表层海温异常中心沿海洋气候温跃层向东向上传播来完成.赤道西太平洋暖池次表层海温异常年际变率决定了ENSO循环,年代际变率对ENSO循环也有重要影响,其影响主要在中太平洋, 造成ENSO模的年代际变化.当年代际变率处于正常状态时,ENSO循环基本上是东部型冷暖事件之间的转换;当年际和年代际变率位相相同时,ENSO事件强度将会加强和持续,并出现中部型ENSO事件;当二者位相相反时, ENSO事件强度将会减弱.     

太平洋年代际变化研究进展浅析

综述了近几年太平洋年代际变化形成机制或起因的7种代表性观点,对已有观点作了初步评述,并提出未来太平洋年代际变化研究应关注以下方面:太平洋年代际变化的多重模态及相应的多重机制,不同时空尺度海洋现象间的相互作用,南太平洋年代际变化及在全太平洋年代际变化中的作用,ENSO与PDO的预测,海洋环流的年代际变化及其对气候变化的作用,海洋热能、机械能的收支及转换等关键问题.     

路经南海热带气旋迅速加强的年代际变化

本文利用中国气象局热带气旋资料中心最佳路径数据集、美国国家环境预报中心/美国国家大气研究中心大气再分析数据集和国家海洋信息中心的海洋再分析数据集,研究了路经南海热带气旋迅速加强(Rapid Intensification, RI)的年代际变化。在1951–2017年期间,路经南海的热带气旋主要发生在6–12月,其中发生RI的热带气旋集中在7–12月,且RI呈现年代际变化,这种变化和太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO)显著相关。在正PDO年,RI频数较少且主要分布在菲律宾群岛东部和南海北部;而在负PDO年,RI频数较多且分布在菲律宾群岛东部的大范围区域。路经南海热带气旋RI的年代际变化与PDO对大尺度海洋大气变量的调制有关。回归分析显示热带气旋潜热对路经南海热带气旋RI频数的年代际变化影响最大,而相对湿度的影响相对较小,垂直风切变的影响很小。     

阿拉伯海东南海域盐度收支的季节变化

采用SODA海洋同化产品的月平均资料,本文分析了阿拉伯海东南海域表层盐度的季节变化特征,发现局地海面淡水通量不能解释盐度的变化。两个典型区域的表层海水盐度收支分析表明,海洋的平流输送是造成阿拉伯海东南海域盐度冬季降低、夏季升高的主要原因,而淡水通量仅在夏季印度西侧沿岸区域造成盐度降低。冬季,东北季风环流将孟加拉湾北部的低盐水沿同纬度输送到阿拉伯海,然后向北输送,使表层海水盐度降低;夏季,西南季风环流把阿拉伯海西北部的高盐水向南、向东输送,使阿拉伯海东南海域盐度升高。受地理位置因素的影响,阿拉伯海东南海域表层盐度的变化冬季明显强于夏季。     

北太平洋冬季大气年代际振荡及其相关的SST变化

20世纪60年代， Namias(1969)就发现北太平洋海平面气压(SLP)存在10a以上长周期的变化，这种变化与北美冬季气温异常密切相关。70年代以后，又有人(White et al.，1972； Trenberth，1990； Trenberth et al.，1994)对上述变化作了进一步的验证，并指出1976年以后北太平洋的SLP异常偏低，即阿留申低压异常偏强。以阿留申低压为主要活动中心的大气年代际振荡被称为北太平洋涛动(NPDO)，它与北大西洋涛动(NAO)一起构成年代际气候变动最重要的观测依据，北太平洋年代际振荡的机制也引起了人们的广泛兴趣。作为大气运动的缓变下垫面强迫之一的海表面温度(SST)，它的异常变化对年际气候的显著影响已被公认(Wallace et al.，1981，1998)，由此推断，其对年代际时间尺度气候变化的影响可能也不可忽视。众所周知，SST年际变化最显著区位于赤道中东太平洋(如Nino 3区)，而与北太平洋年代际振荡显著相关的SST变化(时间变化和空间分布)又如何呢?作者就这一问题，分析了北太平洋大气环流年代际振荡的时、空变化特征，并揭示了与之相关的SST变化的时间变化和空间分布。     

北太平洋副热带模态水盐度的年代际变化

副热带模态水(Subtropical Mode Water;STMW)在气候变化中起着重要作用。本文利用全球高分辨率数值模拟结果,研究了北太平洋STMW核心层盐度(Core Layer Salinity;CLS)的年代际变化及其物理机制。结果表明,CLS存在显著的年代际变化,其空间分布则与背景流场分布特征有关。侵蚀区CLS滞后生成区CLS约1~2年,这主要是海流平流输运引起的。生成区内,STMW的季节循环一般可分为生成期(12-4月)、隔离期(5-6月)和侵蚀期(7-11月),生成期混合层盐度(Mixed Layer Salinity;MLS)决定着隔离期和侵蚀期的CLS,而MLS年代际变化则主要由同太平洋年代际涛动存在负相关性的海表面淡水通量的变化引起。     

南海盐度锋的年际变化特征分析

为了探究南海表层5 m盐度锋的年际变化特征,应用50年(1958—2007年)的SODA月平均资料,采用均方差和经验正交函数进行研究。结果表明,盐度锋年际变化显著的区域集中在北部湾、海南岛以东、南海北部、吕宋海峡、东马来西亚西北部和越南最南端;第一模态和第二模态时间系数变化趋势均表明南海盐度锋强度在逐渐减小;前者呈单极子型空间分布,后者空间分布型则为偶极子型。第一模态时间系数功率谱分析表明该模态存在3—5年和7—16年的周期,Morlet小波分析显示1965—2000年该模态主要存在4年、9年和12年左右的周期。第一模态确立的3个负位相中心区域(海南岛以东、吕宋海峡和越南最南端)的均值变化趋势一致,强度都在逐渐增大,具有同位相变化特征;第二模态时间系数功率谱分析表明该模态存在3年、5年和8—12年的周期。Morlet小波分析表明1962—2001年期间该模态存在3年、5年和9—12年的周期。第二模态找出的两个正负位相中心分别在东马来西亚西北部和南海北部,前者盐度锋强度在逐渐减小,而后者强度却在持续增大,强度的年际变化呈现反位相变化特征。     

南海上层海洋热含量的年际和年代际变化

分析了１９５９－１９８８年南海表面至１００ｍ垂直平均温度资料，结果表明，南海上层海洋热含量存在明显的准两年，４－５年和年代际振动，在Ｅ１ Ｎｉｎｏ年，南海上层热含量显著增加，５０年代末至７０年代初，南海ＴＡＶ为负距平，此后转为正距平，南海ＴＡＶ的变化与ＥＮＳＯ事件，东亚冬季风和热带大气环流的变异密切相关。     

南海海表面温度年代际异常变化特征及其与PDO的联系

利用奇异谱分析和小波分析的方法,分析了南海海表面温度异常(SSTA)在年代际尺度上的变化特征及其与太平洋年代际涛动(PDO)之间的关系.发现南海 SSTA 年代际振荡与年循环之间存在一定程度上的锁相:在冬、春季较强,而夏、秋季则较弱.此外,在过去的140多年,南海 SSTA 年代际振荡显著衰弱.通过与 PDO 指数进行相关分析发现,在年代际尺度上 PDO 与南海 SSTA 具有一定的相关性.一方面这种相关性只在20世纪前50年比较显著,这在一定程度上解释了为何南海 SSTA 的年代际振荡表现出衰减的趋势;另一方面,当 PDO 位相超前南海 SSTA 位相3到6个月时,两者表现出较强的相关性.进一步分析表明,PDO 可能通过调控赤道东太平洋 SST,从而影响南海 SSTA 的年代际变化.     

Multi-scale variability of subsurface temperature in the South China Sea

Using Morlet wavelet transform and harmonic analysis the multi-scale variability of subsurface temperature in the South China Sea is studied by analyzing one-year (from April 1998 to April 1999) ATLAS mooring data. By wavelet transform, annual and semi-annual cycle as well as intrasea-sonal variations are found, with different dominance, in subsurface temperature. For annual harmonic cycle, both the downward net surface heat flux and thermocline vertical movement partially control the subsurface temperature variability. For semi-annual cycle and intraseasonal variability, the subsurface temperature variability is mainly linked to the vertical displacement of thermocline.     

南海北部次表层高盐水的季节变化及其与西北太平洋环流的关系

次表层高盐水(34.68‰)作为北太平洋热带水(NPTW)的示踪,可用来研究黑潮入侵,了解南海与太平洋的水体交换。文章利用基于高分辨率混合坐标海洋模式(HYCOM)的海洋再分析资料,研究了南海北部次表层高盐水的季节变化及其影响因子。模拟结果显示,南海北部高盐水位于100~200m水深,最西可达111°E,其体积存在明显的季节变化,12月达到极大值,6月达到极小值。进一步的分析表明,其季节变化主要受低纬度西北太平洋大尺度环流的调制,与北赤道流分叉点位置的季节变化(1月到达最北端、6月到达最南端)呈现很好的相关性。受太平洋大尺度风场的影响,北赤道流分叉点上半年(下半年)向南(北)移动,导致黑潮输运增强(减弱),通过吕宋海峡进入南海的盐通量减少(增加),从而使南海次表层高盐水的盐度降低(升高)。吕宋海峡断面的流速和盐通量分布特征显示,西太平洋高盐水主要通过吕宋海峡中部(20°~21°18'N)进入南海北部。     

南海海面高度变化及其与太平洋上涛动信号的关系

本文使用循环平稳经验正交函数(CSEOF)方法分析了南海海面高度(SCS-SSH)的时空变化模态,并对它们与太平洋海盆尺度振荡的关系进行了探讨分析。结果表明,SCS-SSH的第一个CSEOF模态是季节变化模态,其变化强度受到一个与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)有关的低频信号的调制,即在厄尔尼诺期间季节变化的幅度减弱(最大可降低30%,1997/98)而在拉尼娜期间季节变化增强。SCS-SSH的第二个CSEOF模态是年际-年代际尺度的低频变化模态,其空间模态的月与月之间的差异微弱,而时间模态和太平洋年代际振荡(PDO)指数高度相关。然后,我们使用独立成分分析(ICA)方法提取了太平洋中的五个主要振荡成分,并检验了它们对SCS-SSH变化的各自影响。分析表明,纯粹的ENSO模态(类似于太平洋东部型ENSO)对SCS-SSH的低频变化的影响比较微弱,而ENSO的红化模态(类似于太平洋中部型ENSO)对SCS-SSH的低频变化具有明显影响。由于ENSO的红化模态是PDO信号的一个主要成分,这一结果解释了为什么在影响SCS-SSH的低频变化上PDO比ENSO更重要。径向鞍型振荡模态、黑潮延伸体处的增温模态、以及赤道的降温模态也由ICA方法提取出来,但它们对SCS-SSH低频变异的影响微弱。进一步的分析表明,太平洋的涛动信号可能以不同的方式来影响南海海面高度变化和海表温度变化。     

Decadal modes of sea surface salinity and the water cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean: The anomalous late 1990s

Limitations in sea surface salinity (SSS) observations and timescale separation methods have led to an incomplete picture of the mechanisms of SSS decadal variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates. Little is known regarding the roles of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the large-scale SSS variability over the tropical basin. A self-organizing map (SOM) clustering analysis is performed on the intrinsic mode function (IMF) maps, which are decomposed from SSS and other hydrological fields by ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), to extract their asymmetric features on decadal timescales over the tropical Pacific. For SSS, an anomalous pattern appeared during 1997 to 2004, a period referred to as the anomalous late 1990s, when strong freshening prevailed in large areas over the southwestern basin and moderate salinization occurred in the western equatorial Pacific. During this period, the precipitation and surface currents were simultaneously subjected to anomalous fluctuations: the precipitation dipole and zonal current divergence along the equator coincided with the SSS increase in the far western equatorial Pacific, while the weak zonal current convergence in the southwestern basin and large-scale southward meridional currents tended to induce SSS decreases there. The dominant decadal modes of SSS and sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Pacific both resemble the NPGO but occur predominantly during the negative and positive NPGO phases, respectively. The similarities between the NPGO and Central Pacific ENSO (CP-ENSO) in their power spectra and associated spatial patterns in the tropics imply their dynamical links; the correspondence between the NPGO-like patterns during negative (positive) phases and the CP La Niña (CP El Niño) patterns for SSS is also discussed.     

Significant salinity increase in subsurface waters of the South China Sea during 2016–2017

The South China Sea(SCS) is the largest semi-enclosed marginal sea in the North Pacific. Salinity changes in the SCS play an important role in regional and global ocean circulation and the hydrological cycle. However, there are few studies on salinity changes over the SCS due to lack of high-quality and long-term observations. In the past decade, the deployment of floats from the Argo program in the SCS and their accumulated temperature and salinity profiles have made it possible for us to examine salinity changes over the entire basin. In this study,salinity changes were investigated with Argo and underwater glider temperature and salinity observations and gridded temperature–salinity objective analyses(UK Met Office Hadley Centre EN4.2.1 objective analysis and China Argo Real-time Data Center BOA_Argo). The results indicated that the subsurface water in the entire SCS became significantly saltier during 2016–2017. The most significant salinity increase was found during 2016 in the northeastern SCS. The subsurface water in the northeastern SCS exhibited a salinity maximum above 35, which was recorded by three Argo floats during 2015–2016. Such high salinity water was rarely observed and reported prior to the Argo era. Average salinity of 2016–2017 along the 25.5σ_θ–23.5σ_θ isopycnal surfaces in the whole SCS is 0.014-0.130 higher than the climatology. Increases in subsurface salinity started from the northeastern SCS and extended southwestward gradually. Moreover, the subsurface salinity changes, especially in the northern SCS,exhibited a semiannual lead behind the subsurface Luzon Strait transport. Further analysis indicated that the predominance of advection, driven by subsurface Luzon Strait transport, led to salinification along the western boundary of the SCS. In other parts of the SCS, negative wind stress curl trends tended to preserve the high salinity characteristics of the subsurface water.     

Response of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation in the Yellow Sea over the past 400 a

Quantitative identification of long-term changes in the abundance of Japanese anchovy (Engraulis japonicus) in the Yellow Sea is particularly important for understanding evolutionary processes of the Yellow Sea ecosystem. Unfortunately, the driving mechanisms of climate variability on the anchovy are still unclear due to the lack of long-term observational data. In this study, we used the fish scale deposition rate in the central Yellow Sea to reconstruct the time series of the anchovy stock over the past 400 a. On this basis, we further explored the impacts of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) on the anchovy. Our results show that the anchovy stock is positively correlated with the PDO on a decadal time scale. In addition, anchovy abundance was relatively high during 1620–1860 AD (the Little Ice Age, LIA), though in a state of constant fluctuation; anchovy abundance maintained at a relatively low level after ~1860 AD. In particular, followed by overfishing since the 1980s, the anchovy stock has declined sharply. Based on these findings, we infer that fluctuations of the anchovy stock may be regulated by basin-scale “atmosphere–ocean” interactions. Nevertheless, the role of overfishing should not be ignored.     

Spatial-temporal variability of submesoscale currents in the South China Sea

Spatial and seasonal variabilities of submesoscale currents in the northeastern South China Sea are investigated by employing a numerical simulation with a horizontal resolution of 1km. The results suggest that submesoscale currents are widespread in the surface mixed layer mainly due to the mixed layer instabilities and frontogenesis. In horizontal, submesoscale currents are generally more active in the north than those in the south, since that active eddies, especially cyclonic eddies, mainly occur in the northern area. Specifically, submesoscale currents are highly intensified in the east of Dongsha Island and south of Taiwan Island. In temporal sense, submesoscale currents are more active in winter than those in summer, since the mixed layer is thicker and more unstable in the winter. The parameterization developed by Fox-Kemper et al. is examined in terms of vertical velocity, and the results suggest that it could reproduce the vertical velocity if mixed layer instability dominates there. This study improves our understanding of the submesoscale dynamics in the South China Sea.     

Vertical characteristics revealed by biweekly and synoptic variability of upper sea temperature in the northern South China Sea

On the basis of the analysis of the sea temperature data that are observed from the three automatic temperature line acquisition sysem mooring buoys deployed in the central South China Sea (SCS) during South China Sea monsoon experiment, vertical features of biweekly and synoptic variability are discussed. There are five vertical modes, that is, subsurface temperature variability is in phase with,out of phase with, leads to, lags the surface temperature variability, and at depths within the subsurface layer the upper and lower temperature variations are out of phase. The formation of these vertical modes is related to the property of low-level atmospheric forcing and to the background in atmosphere and ocean. Wind stress curl is the main driving factor in forming Modes 1 and 3, and wind stresses in forming Modes 2 and 4.     

南海盐度对南海夏季风响应的初步分析

为分析南海盐度对南海夏季风的响应情况,采用1967-2001年共35年的月平均海洋同化数据(SODA)等资料,利用合成等分析方法,探讨了南海上层盐度与净淡水通量、风应力、Ekman抽吸速度的关系以及不同海域盐度对南海夏季风爆发以及季风强度的响应.结果表明,随着南海夏季风建立,南海北部、东部的盐度降低,南部盐度增加.在强季风年,南海北部沿岸、东部盐度偏低,南海南部马来西亚以北海域盐度偏高;弱季风年南海盐度异常分布则为北部、东部盐度偏高,南部盐度偏低.南海上层盐度对南海夏季风爆发和季风强度的响应均与南海的净淡水通量、风应力、Ekman抽吸速度存在密切关系.