Change trend of natural gas hydrates in permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (1960–2050) under the background of global warming and their impacts on carbon emissions

Global warming and the response to it have become a topic of concern in today’s society and are also a research focus in the global scientific community. As the world’s third pole, the global warming amplifier, and the starting region of China’s climate change, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is extremely sensitive to climate change. The permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is rich in natural gas hydrates (NGHs) resources. Under the background of global warming, whether the NGHs will be disassociated and enter the atmosphere as the air temperature rises has become a major concern of both the public and the scientific community. Given this, this study reviewed the trend of global warming and accordingly summarized the characteristics of the temperature increase in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Based on this as well as the distribution characteristics of the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, this study investigated the changes in the response of the NGHs to global warming, aiming to clarify the impacts of global warming on the NGHs in the permafrost of the plateau. A noticeable response to global warming has been observed in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Over the past decades, the increase in the mean annual air temperature of the plateau was increasingly high and more recently. Specifically, the mean annual air temperature of the plateau changed at a rate of approximately 0.308–0.420°C/10a and increased by approximately 1.54–2.10°C in the past decades. Moreover, the annual mean ground temperature of the shallow permafrost on the plateau increased by approximately 1.155–1.575°C and the permafrost area decreased by approximately 0.34×10⁶ km² from about 1.4×10⁶ km² to 1.06×10⁶ km² in the past decades. As indicated by simulated calculation results, the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has decreased by 29–39 m in the past 50 years, with the equivalent of (1.69 – 2.27)×10¹⁰–(1.12–1.51)×10¹² m³ of methane (CH₄) being released due to NGHs dissociation. It is predicted that the thickness of the NGH-bearing permafrost will decrease by 23 m and 27 m, and dissociated and released NGHs will be the equivalent of (1.34–88.8)×10¹⁰ m³ and (1.57–104)×10¹⁰ m³ of CH₄, respectively by 2030 and 2050. Considering the positive feedback mechanism of NGHs on global warming and the fact that CH₄ has a higher greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide, the NGHs in the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will emit more CH₄ into the atmosphere, which is an important trend of NGHs under the background of global warming. Therefore, the NGHs are destructive as a time bomb and may lead to a waste of efforts that mankind has made in carbon emission reduction and carbon neutrality. Accordingly, this study suggests that human beings should make more efforts to conduct the exploration and exploitation of the NGHs in the permafrost of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, accelerate research on the techniques and equipment for NGHs extraction, storage, and transportation, and exploit the permafrost-associated NGHs while thawing them. The purpose is to reduce carbon emissions into the atmosphere and mitigate the atmospheric greenhouse effect, thus contributing to the global goal of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality.©2022 China Geology Editorial Office.     

Growth behavior and resource potential evaluation of gas hydrate in core fractures in Qilian Mountain permafrost area,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The Qilian Mountain permafrost area located in the northern of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is a favorable place for natural gas hydrate formation and enrichment, due to its well-developed fractures and abundant gas sources. Understanding the formation and distribution of multi-component gas hydrates in fractures is crucial in accurately evaluating the hydrate reservoir resources in this area. The hydrate formation experiments were carried out using the core samples drilled from hydrate-bearing sediments in Qilian Mountain permafrost area and the multi-component gas with similar composition to natural gas hydrates in Qilian Mountain permafrost area. The formation and distribution characteristics of multi-component gas hydrates in core samples were observed in situ by X-ray Computed Tomography (X-CT) under high pressure and low temperature conditions. Results show that hydrates are mainly formed and distributed in the fractures with good connectivity. The ratios of volume of hydrates formed in fractures to the volume of fractures are about 96.8% and 60.67% in two different core samples. This indicates that the fracture surface may act as a favorable reaction site for hydrate formation in core samples. Based on the field geological data and the experimental results, it is preliminarily estimated that the inventory of methane stored in the fractured gas hydrate in Qilian Mountain permafrost area is about 8.67×10¹³ m³, with a resource abundance of 8.67×10⁸ m³/km². This study demonstrates the great resource potential of fractured gas hydrate and also provides a new way to further understand the prospect of natural gas hydrate and other oil and gas resources in Qilian Mountain permafrost area.©2023 China Geology Editorial Office.     

青藏高原天然气水合物的形成与多年冻土的关系

天然气水合物是一种新型清洁能源,赋存在多年冻土区和海洋沉积物等低温高压环境中.青藏高原多年冻土面积占高原总面积的一半以上,是可能的天然气水合物赋存区.根据青藏高原多年冻土条件和天然气水合物形成的热力学条件,讨论了多年冻土地温梯度、冻土厚度与天然气水合物形成的热力学条件之间的关系和青藏高原存在天然气水合物的可能性.结果表明,青藏高原多年冻土区基本具备形成天然气水合物的热力学条件,最适宜的热力学条件是多年冻土地温梯度接近或略大于多年冻土底板附近融土的地温梯度,且融土地温梯度越小,越容易形成天然气水合物.估算得到天然气水合物最浅的顶界埋深为74 m左右,最深的底界埋深达上千米.     

青藏铁路沿线多年冻土区天然气水合物的地质、地球化学异常

通过对青藏铁路沿线多年冻土区重点地段野外冻胀、坍塌、冷泉冒气现象的观测及对低空大气、冷泉气体、表层冻土沉积物、地下冰等不同介质中气体的地球化学分析,发现部分冻土区如托纠山、昆仑山口、雁石坪等地区存在着明显的地质地球化学异常。这些气体地球化学异常可能主要是由青藏高原多年冻土区不同类型的断裂作用把深部气体带至浅部冻土沉积物中形成的,另一部分可能与浅部有机质转化成烃的作用相关,还有一部分可能与冰川发生位移造成的烃类气体聚集体重新分配有关;地质异常现象可能与该区构造热活动或天然气水合物形成的演化有关。对比前人的模拟计算结果,本次地质地球化学异常区的冻土厚度基本能满足天然气水合物形成的温压条件,这些异常可能与天然气水合物有关。     

木里地区永久冻土层的形成及对天然气水合物的成藏影响

以青海木里天然气水合物成藏地区为研究对象,总结分析了现有木里地区永久冻土和天然气水合物的特点;基于青藏高原第四纪的气候调查相关证据和现有地质勘探资料,利用FLAC3D模拟计算永久冻土的形成过程,计算结果表明,现有的永久冻土可能形成于晚全新世新冰期(4000～3000至1000 a BP),约经历170 a的降温后形成稳...     

基于BP神经网络的青藏高原土壤养分评价

土壤养分在养分循环和土壤-植物关系中起着重要作用,在高海拔生态系统中,由于缺乏系统的实地观测,土壤养分在高山草原中仍然知之甚少。为了了解青藏高原多年冻土区高寒草地土壤养分的基本情况以及土壤养分的等级划分,利用青藏高原腹地西大滩至安多地区采集的154个土壤样品数据,基于BP神经网络模型建立具有3层网络,10个中间层节点的土壤养分评价模型。在MATLAB软件中进行BP神经网络的训练和验证后,对青藏高原多年冻土区高寒草地土壤养分进行综合评价。结果表明：2009年青藏高原高寒草地的土壤养分综合评价等级为4级,属于较低水平。综合评价结果与基于主成分分析方法的土壤质量指数（SQI）基本一致,说明BP神经网络模型对青藏高原土壤养分的评价结果是合理的。对评价结果与海拔、植被盖度和植被类型的关系分析表明,海拔越高或植被盖度越高,土壤养分的评价等级越高;不同植被类型的评价等级表现出高寒沼泽草甸（2级）>高寒草甸（4级）>高寒草原（5级）的趋势。BP网络作为一种简单又准确的识别方法,不仅可以评估土壤养分等级,还可以比较不同地区的土壤养分高低状况,希望为青藏高原的土地资源管理与保护提供基本的科学依据。     

青藏高原东缘晚新生代地质特征与古环境变化

青藏高原东缘地区发育了完整的晚新生代湖相、黄土、红土和冰川沉积系列,不同成因的沉积物记录了晚新生代以来古环境时空变迁的信息。上新世昔格达湖相沉积发育于4.2～2.6MaBP,具有9个冷—暖气候环境变化阶段。川西风尘堆积始于1.15MaBP,连续记录了14个古季风变化旋回,成都平原红土记录了1.13Ma来的5个古环境演化阶段。青藏高原东缘发育了约4.3MaBP的老冰期,第四纪时期出现了5次极端古气候事件,对应为5期冰期。     

Study on Environmental and Hydrological Effects of Thermokarst Lakes in Permafrost Regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Thermokarst lake is the most visible morphologic landscape developing during the process of permafrost degradation, and it is still an international hot topic in permafrost research. The climate warming, and the consequent degradation of the permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau aggravate thermokarst lake development. The permafrost is normally considered as an aquiclude, and the permafrost degradation, especially when the permafrost is completely thawed by a thermokarst lake, might influence regional ground water. Therefore, a research program focusing on environmental and hydrological effects of thermokarst lakes in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau was started and supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China. The work proposed by the application includes: To analysis the spatial and temporal distribution rule of thermokarst lakes in the Qinghai-Tibet Engineering Corridor (QTEC) under the climate change and engineering activities, and to evaluate the ecological environment effects through remote sensing and field investigation; to reveal the main factors influencing a typical thermokarst lake and its hydrothermal condition, and to elucidate the conversion relationship between the thermokarst lake and the groundwater with hydrological and isotope tracer tests; to make an analysis of the influences of different lake stage and size on regional permafrost, hydrological conditions and ecological environment through numerical simulation and statistical modelling, considering the relationships between the thermokarst lake and the ground water level. The research results will help to accurately assess regional permafrost ecological environment evolution and trend prediction, and to reasonably understand the impact factors of the permafrost hydrological evolution and its response mechanism to the ecological environment in the river source regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. In this paper, the research status analysis, the main research contents, research objectives and prospects were introduced so as to provide some references for related researchers and engineers.     

甘肃临夏盆地新近纪红粘土粒度组成的古环境意义①

临夏盆地十里墩剖面新近纪红粘土粒度组成特征、磁化率值分析表明:8.2Ma以来,临夏盆地经历了干旱化的逐级发展和东亚冬季风的逐渐加强过程。8.2～7.4Ma,东亚冬季风形成,干旱化已经发生,风成红粘土开始在盆地沉积;7.4～6.8Ma,亚洲冬季风逐渐加强,开始影响黄土高原地区,形成大面积的红粘土堆积,盆地为半干旱～半湿润的气候环境;6.8～6.0Ma气候与构造稳定,基本维持了前期的气候特点;5.9～5.3Ma,盆地冬季风强度略有增加,为干湿与干凉交替的气候环境;5.3～4.8Ma盆地冬季风盛行、干旱化程度强烈,气候特征为干凉;4.8～4.0Ma,夏季风开始盛行,气候变的湿润。4.0Ma后,青藏高原开始发生又一次强烈隆升。     

The first offshore natural gas hydrate production test in South China Sea

Natural gas hydrates (NGH) is one of key future clean energy resources. Its industrialized development will help remit the huge demand of global natural gas, relieve the increasing pressure of the environment, and play a vital role in the green sustainable growth of human societies. Based on nearly two decades’ studying on the reservoir characteristics in the South China Sea (SCS) and the knowledge of reservoir system, the China Geological Survey (CGS) conducted the first production test on an optimal target selected in Shenhu area SCS in 2017. Guided by the “three-phase control” exploitation theory which focused on formation stabilization, technologies such as formation fluid extraction, well drilling and completing, reservoir stimulating, sand controlling, environmental monitoring, monitoring and preventing of secondary formation of hydrates were applied. The test lasted for 60 days from May 10^th when starting to pump, drop pressure and ignite to well killing on July 9^th, with gas production of 3.09×10⁵ m³ in total, which is a world record with the longest continuous duration of gas production and maximal gas yield. This successful test brings a significant breakthrough on safety control of NGH production.     

Analysis of groundwater flow through low-latitude alpine permafrost by model simulation: a case study in the headwater area of Yellow River on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Warming climate and thawing permafrost have profound impacts on groundwater flow regimes in cold regions because of the shrinkage or disappearance of the confining unit formed by the permafrost layers and improving hydraulic connections. Numerical simulations of coupled groundwater flow and heat transfer are often used to characterize the changing permafrost hydrogeology. In this study, a number of scenarios for different hydraulic gradients and lake-water depths have been used to simulate the concordant permafrost evolution and groundwater movement using a two-dimensional cylindrical coordinate model at time scales of decades to centuries in response to a warming climate. The model is applied to a representative headwater catchment in the south-central headwater area of the Yellow River on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, China. The results show that the presence and movement of groundwater and the deeper subpermafrost aquifer can substantially accelerate permafrost degradation, and the disappearance of residual permafrost at depth can result in the sudden establishment of deep groundwater flow paths. All hydrological impacts will become evident after the stabilization of the hydrothermal and flow fields at 100–200 years. The stable discharge rate of groundwater flow varies from 8.0 to 12.4 m³ s⁻¹, and the stable velocity of groundwater flow varies from 1.6 × 10⁻⁷ to 4.4 × 10⁻⁷ m s⁻¹ under different scenarios within the model domain. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow velocity and discharge rate in local groundwater flow systems can be enhanced by an increased hydraulic conductivity, leading to an accelerated degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.

     

青藏高原天然气水合物资源预测

青藏高原分布着中国规模最大的多年冻土带,发育有良好的中、新生代海相地层及海相、陆相盆地,为高原天然气水合物矿藏的形成创造了有利条件。本文根据陆上天然气水合物的形成条件,从多方面讨论了水合物形成的可能性及其矿藏有利的分布位置,认为青藏高原完全有条件形成天然气水合物矿藏,最有利的分布区是藏北地区含油气盆地储集层的露头区。对水合物矿藏的研究不但具有资源意义,而且还有潜在的环境意义。     

青海木里地区天然气水合物形成条件分析

我国的青藏高原地区有大面积的多年冻土分布,其适宜的温压条件为天然气水合物的形成创造了有利的环境。在青藏高原北部祁连山区木里煤田多年冻土层煤炭地质勘查施工中,发现天然气水合物存在的证据。通过分析木里地区多年冻土带天然气水合物的形成条件,对天然气水合物烃类气体的来源进行了探讨,提出煤层和煤系分散有机质热演化过程中形成的烃类气体是木里煤田天然气水合物主要来源的观点,将并其称之为“煤型气源”天然气水合物。     

青藏高原多年冻土区活动层土壤入渗特征及机理分析

青藏高原多年冻土区活动层土壤的入渗规律研究是高寒区土壤水循环过程研究的主要内容。以青藏高原多年冻土区高寒沼泽草甸、高寒草甸和高寒草原的活动层土壤为研究对象,裸地为参照对象,分析了不同植被类型土壤的入渗规律及其主要影响因子。结果表明：不同植被类型土壤的入渗能力排序为高寒草原>裸地>高寒草甸>高寒沼泽草甸。高寒草甸土壤中致密的根系对土壤水分的运移具有强烈的阻滞作用,降低了土壤的入渗性能,而高寒草原土壤层根系较为稀疏,对土壤入渗的阻滞作用较弱,土壤水分向深层的渗漏速率较大。通过对比4种土壤入渗模型的模拟结果,发现Horton模型更适用于描述高寒草地土壤水分的入渗过程。另外,不同入渗模型对裸地入渗过程的模拟均优于其他植被类型草地,说明植被类型及植物的生长状况影响土壤入渗过程的模拟效果。全球变暖条件下,多年冻土区土壤入渗研究将为青藏高原多年冻土区陆地水文过程模型提供参数支持,为未来水资源变化研究提供基础数据。     

Late Cenozoic Stratigraphy and Paleomagnetic Chronology of the Zanda Basin, Tibet, and Records of the Uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The characteristics of Late Cenozoic tectonic uplift of the southern margin of the Qinghai- Tibet Plateau may be inferred from fluvio-lacustrine strata in the Zanda basin, Ngari, Tibet. Magnetostratigraphic study shows that the very thick fluvio-lacustrine strata in the basin are 5.89- 0.78 Ma old and that their deposition persisted for 5.11 Ma, i.e. starting at the end of the Miocene and ending at the end of the early Pleistocene, with the Quaternary glacial stage starting in the area no later than 1.58 Ma. Analysis of the sedimentary environment indicates that the Zanda basin on the southern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau began uplift at -5.89 Ma, later than the northern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. Presence of gravel beds in the Guge and Qangze Formations reflects that strong uplift took place at -5.15 and -2.71 Ma, with the uplift peaking at -2.71 Ma.     

Annual soil CO2 efflux in a wet meadow during active layer freeze–thaw changes on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Soil CO₂ efflux from an ecosystem responds to the active layer thawing depth (H) significantly. A Li-8100 system was used to monitor the CO₂ exchange from a wet meadow ecosystem during a freeze–thaw cycle of the active layer in a permafrost region on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. An exponential regression equation ( $ F_{\text{soil\, flux}} = 1.84e^{0.023H} + 5.06\,R^{2} = 0.96 $ ) has been established on the basis of observed soil CO₂ efflux versus the thawed soil thickness. Using this equation, the total soil CO₂ efflux during an annual freeze–thaw cycle has been calculated to be approximately 8.18 × 10¹⁰ mg C. The results suggest that freeze–thaw cycles in the active layer play an important role in soil CO₂ emissions and that thawed soil thickness is the major factor controlling CO₂ fluxes from the wet meadow ecosystem in permafrost regions on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. It can be concluded that with active layer thickening due to permafrost degradation, massive amounts of soil carbon would be emitted as greenhouse gases, and the permafrost region would become a carbon source with a positive feedback effect on climate warming. Hence, more attention should be paid to the influences of the active layer changes on soil carbon emission from these permafrost regions.     

青藏高原重大冻土工程的基础研究

青藏高原是我国乃至世界高海拔多年冻土区的典型代表。伴随着青藏铁路的建成通车,西藏自治区迎来了新一轮经济发展,迫切需要新建高速公路、输变电线路、输油气管道工程等。这些拟建工程与已建的青藏公路、青藏铁路、格拉输油管道、兰西拉光缆等工程均聚集于宽度不足10km范围内的青藏工程走廊。在这狭长的冻土工程走廊内,已修建或拟建的各种冻土构筑物相互影响,多因素耦合叠加,加速区域内的冻土退化,而冻土融化必将影响到工程的稳定性和生态环境退化。再加上全球气候变化的影响,其变化程度更加剧烈。面对国家需求,国家重点基础研究发展项目"青藏高原重大冻土工程的基础研究"于2012年4月正式启动。该项目旨在揭示气候变化与人类工程活动加剧背景下冻土变化及灾害时空演化规律,建立冻土工程稳定性和服役性能评价体系,提出冻土工程灾害防治理论与控制对策,为冻土构筑物群灾害应急预案和重大冻土工程建设提供科学决策依据。     

0．7Ma以来的念青唐古拉山脉隆升过程——来自冰川剥蚀作用的证据

通过对念青唐古拉山冰碛地层划分及冰碛物同位素测年，发现最早一期冰碛物形成于0．7～0．6MaBP，指示自中更新世以来念青唐古拉山脉开始隆升，主峰地区发生了大规模的冰川剥蚀作用，形成了大面积分布的冰碛高平台；0．2～0．14MaBP念青唐古拉山又快速隆升，并堆积了刚刚伸出各大沟谷口的高侧碛；0．07～0．03MaBP念青唐古拉山再次小规模隆起，形成各大沟谷内的侧碛和终碛垄；0．01Ma BP还有小规模冰川活动。念青唐古拉山主峰地区的冰川剥蚀作用反映出的山脉隆升过程，可较好地与青藏高原的隆起过程相对比，它应是青藏高原隆升的响应。     

The extent of permafrost in China during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LLGM)

Recent investigations into relict periglacial phenomena in northern and western China and on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau provide information for delineating the extent of permafrost in China during the Late Pleistocene. Polygonal and wedge‐shaped structures indicate that, during the local Last Glacial Maximum (LLGM, between ～35 and 10.5 ka BP), the southern limit of latitudinal permafrost in northern China advanced southward at least to ～38–40°N in the east and to ～37–39°N in the west. This represents an advance of about 5–10° of latitude beyond present‐day permafrost limits. The lower limits of elevationally controlled permafrost on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and its peripheries were about 1000 m lower: this permafrost was largely continuous during the LLGM. This suggests a cooling of between 4 and 10°C, or more. This paper discusses the extent of permafrost during the LLGM and presents maps that have been constructed on the basis of extensive and integrative analysis of all reliable and pertinent data. The results indicate that the extent of LLGM permafrost in China was between ～3.8 and 4.3×10⁶ km². This is 80 to 100% more than that of ～2.15×10⁶ km² in the 1970s, and 120 to ～150% more than that of ～1.75×10⁶ km² today.     

Holocene development and permafrost history in sub‐arctic peatlands in Tavvavuoma,northern Sweden

Under changing climatic conditions permafrost peatlands can play an important role in the global carbon budget through permafrost carbon feedbacks and shifts in carbon assimilation. To better predict future dynamics in these ecosystems an increased understanding of their Holocene carbon and permafrost history is needed. In Tavvavuoma, northern Sweden, we have performed detailed analyses of vegetation succession and geochemical properties at six permafrost peatland sites. Peatland initiation took place around 10 000 to 9600 cal. a BP, soon after retreat of the Fennoscandian Ice Sheet, and the peatlands have remained permafrost‐free fens throughout most of the Holocene. At the four sites that showed a continuous accumulation record during the late Holocene radiocarbon dating of the shift from wet fen to dry bog vegetation, characteristic of the present permafrost peatland surface, suggests that permafrost developed at around 600–100 cal. a BP. At the other two sites peat accumulation was halted during the late Holocene, possibly due to abrasion, making it more difficult to imply the timing of permafrost aggradation. However also at these sites there are no indications of permafrost inception prior to the Little Ice Age. The mean long‐term Holocene carbon accumulation rate at all six sites was 12.3±2.4 gC m⁻² a⁻¹ (±SD), and the mean soil organic carbon storage was 114±27 kg m⁻².