Mechanism of CO2 Emission Reduction by Global Energy Interconnection

The challenge of global warming has become a driving force for a global energy transition. The Global Energy Interconnection (GEI) is a modern energy system aimed at meeting the global power demand in a clean and green manner. With the development of clean replacement, electricity replacement, and grid interconnection strategies, GEI contributes to the global temperature control by dramatically reducing the level of energy-related CO₂ emissions. This study proposes an integrated framework for analyzing the mechanism of CO₂ emission reduction via GEI implementation. The obtained results demonstrate that the total cumulative contribution of GEI to mitigating the effects of CO₂ emissions (estimated by conducting a scenario analysis) corresponds to a total reduction of 3100 Gt CO₂. The contributions of the clean replacement, electricity replacement, and carbon capture and storage GEI components to this process are equal to 55, 42, 5%, respectively. Using GEI, the utilization of clean energy in 2050 will increase by a factor of 4.5 at an annual growth rate of 4.4%, and the electrification rate will be 2.4 times greater than the current one.     

Nuclear and clean coal technology options for sustainable development in India

Due to the growing energy needs along with increasing concerns towards control of greenhouse gas emissions, most developing countries are under pressure to find alternative methods for energy conversion and policies to make these technologies economically viable. Most of the energy is produced from fossil fuel in India which is not a sustainable source of energy. In this paper Indian power sector has been examined by using MARKAL model for introduction of clean coal and advanced nuclear technologies with implementation of energy conservation potential. The result shows that application of clean technologies gives energy security but not significant reduction in carbon dioxide emissions. When clean technologies apply with energy conservation a huge amount of CO₂ can be reduced and also economically viable. Three scenarios including base case scenario have been developed to estimate the resource allocations and CO₂ mitigation. The clean technologies with maximum savings potential shows 70% CO₂ reduction in the year 2045.     

Regional differences in the CO2 emissions of China's iron and steel industry: Regional heterogeneity

Identifying the key influencing factors of CO₂ emissions in China's iron and steel industry is vital for mitigating its emissions and formulating effective environmental protection measures. Most of the existing researches utilized time series data to investigate the driving factors of the industry's CO₂ emission at the national level, but regional differences have not been given appropriate attention. This paper adopts provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013 and panel data models to examine the key driving forces of CO₂ emissions at the regional levels in China. The results show that industrialization dominates the industry's CO₂ emissions, but its effect varies across regions. The impact of energy efficiency on CO₂ emissions in the eastern region is greater than in the central and western regions because of a huge difference in R&D investment. The influence of urbanization has significant regional differences due to the heterogeneity in human capital accumulation and real estate development. Energy structure has large potential to mitigate CO₂ emissions on account of increased R&D investment in energy-saving technology and expanded clean energy use. Hence, in order to effectively achieve emission reduction, local governments should consider all these factors as well as regional heterogeneity in formulating appropriate mitigation policies.     

Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO₂ emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO₂ price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO₂ price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO₂ price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO₂ storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology pathways, the models agree that fossil fuels, in particular natural gas, will remain an important part of the electricity mix in the core baseline scenario. According to the models there is agreement that the introduction of a carbon price will lead to a decline in absolute and relative shares of aggregate fossil fuel generation. However, predictions vary as to the extent to which coal, nuclear and renewable energy play a role.     

Future energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions in Jordanian industries

Most, i.e. 85%, of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Jordan emanate as a result of fossil fuel combustion. The industrial sector consumed 23.3% of the total national fuel consumption for heat and electric-power generation in 1999. The CO₂ emissions from energy use in manufacturing processes represent 12.1% of the total national CO₂ emissions. Carbon dioxide is also released as a result of the calcining of carbonates during the manufacture of cement and iron. Electricity, which is the most expensive form of energy, in 1999 represented 45% of total fuel used for heat and power nationally. Heavy fuel oil and diesel oil represented 46% and 7%, respectively, of all energy used by industry. Scenarios for future energy-demands and the emissions of gaseous pollutants, including GHGs, have been predicted for the industrial sector. For these, the development of a baseline scenario relied on historical data concerning consumption, major industries’ outputs, as well as upon pertinent published governmental policies and plans. Possible mitigation options that could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions are assessed, with the aim of achieving a 10% reduction by 2010, compared with the baseline scenario. Many viable CO₂ emission mitigation measures have been identified for the industrial sector, and some of these can be considered as attractive opportunities due to the low financial investments required and short pay back periods. These mitigation options have been selected on the basis of low GHG emission rates and expert judgement as to their viability for wide-scale implementation and economic benefits. The predictions show that the use of more efficient lighting and motors, advanced energy systems and more effective boilers and furnaces will result in a significant reduction in the rates of GHG emissions at an initial cost of between 30 and 90 US$ t⁻¹ of CO₂ release avoided. However, most of these measures have a negative cost per ton of CO₂ reduced, indicating short pay-back periods for the capital investments needed.     

Measuring effectiveness of carbon tax on Indian road passenger transport: A system dynamics approach

The objective of this study is to examine whether carbon tax as a mitigation instrument could be effective in reducing CO₂ emissions from road passenger transport in India. A simulation exercise with system dynamics modelling is used to explore various scenarios pertaining to the carbon tax on fuel. To validate the model, available data from 2000 to 2011 on major variables such as CO₂ emissions, passenger kilometre travelled and GDP growth rate has been used in the paper as a reference case. Findings from scenario analysis using different tax rates indicate a potential reduction in CO₂ emissions in the range of 26 to 40% as compared to a baseline scenario in 2050. The analysis shall assist policymakers in designing an appropriate rate of the carbon tax and optimise its effect through revenue recycling.     

Decomposition of CO2 emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil: Challenges and policy implications

This study evaluates the changes in CO₂ emissions from energy consumption in Brazil for the period 1970–2009. Emissions are decomposed into production and consumption activities allowing computing the full set of energy sources consumed in the country. This study aims to develop a comprehensive and updated picture of the underlying determinants of emissions change from energy consumption in Brazil along the last four decades, including for the first time the recently released data for 2009. Results demonstrate that economic activity and demographic pressure are the leading forces explaining emission increase. On the other hand, carbon intensity reductions and diversification of energy mix towards cleaner sources are the main factors contributing to emission mitigation, which are also the driving factors responsible for the observed decoupling between CO₂ emissions and economic growth after 2004. The cyclical patterns of energy intensity and economy structure are associated to both increments and mitigation on total emission change depending on the interval. The evidences demonstrate that Brazilian efforts to reduce emissions are concentrated on energy mix diversification and carbon intensity control while technology intensive alternatives like energy intensity has not demonstrated relevant progress. Residential sector displays a marginal weight in the total emission change.     

CO2 emissions mitigation potential of solar home systems under clean development mechanism in India

The Government of India has taken several initiatives for promotion of solar energy systems in the country during the last two decades. A variety of policy measures have been adopted which include provision of financial and fiscal incentives to the potential users of solar energy systems however, only 0.4 million solar home systems (SHSs) have been installed so far that is far below their respective potential. One of the major barriers is the high costs of investments in these systems. The clean development mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol provides industrialized (Annex-I) countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in developing (non-Annex-I) countries to achieve a reduction in carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. SHSs could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development, if developed correctly. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the CO₂ mitigation potential of SHSs under CDM in India.     

Managing urban energy system: A case of Suzhou in China

Managing urban energy system is vital for energy conservation and CO₂ reduction. Integrating energy input–output model with carbon emission pinch analysis, we propose a framework for managing urban energy system. This framework could analyze current energy demands and CO₂ emissions, predict their future possibilities and optimize energy mix of key sectors under CO₂ emission constraints. Key sectors are identified by the energy input–output table from both direct and accumulative perspectives. Moreover, taking Suzhou, a typical manufacturing center and export-oriented city in China, as a case example, energy metabolism of Suzhou in 2020 is predicted using energy input–output model. And three sectors named Coking, Smelting and pressing of metals and Production and supply of electric power are identified to have big effects on CO₂ emissions. Subsequently, energy mix of three identified key sectors is optimized under CO₂ emission constraints by the carbon emission pinch analysis. According to the results, clean energy sources will occupy a great position in Suzhou's future energy demands. And the reuse of wastes as energy sources should be limited to achieve CO₂ mitigation targets. Finally, policy implications of results and future work are discussed.     

A local-scale low-carbon plan based on the STIRPAT model and the scenario method: The case of Minhang District,Shanghai, China

To achieve a goal of reducing the emission intensity of carbon dioxide in 2020 by 40–45% relative to 2005 in China, the framework for a low-carbon scenario was developed on a small scale in Minhang District, Shanghai. The STIRPAT model was employed to reveal the factors that contribute to CO₂ emissions in this district: the increase of population, affluence and urbanisation level would increase CO₂ emissions, but energy intensity would decrease. Stakeholder involvement was another key component of the framework, and in this case, several rounds of negotiation and feedback resulted in fifteen final scenarios with the estimations of CO₂ emissions in 2015. For the low-carbon development plan of Minhang District, the model considered the actual capacity and development potential of this district, the best scenario combining with the high rates of affluence growing and energy intensity reducing as well as the middle rates of population growth and urbanisation level. The final CO₂ emissions of this scenario were 66.1 Mt in 2015. Based on these results, strategic suggestions have been proposed to reduce future energy intensity in Minhang District through industrial and energy resource structure reformation, lifestyle change and the transportation system improvement in this district.     

An integrated optimization modeling approach for planning emission trading and clean-energy development under uncertainty

The growing concern for global warming caused by the increased atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) has a significant effect on environmental and energy policies and economic activities, due to the ever-increasing use of fossil fuels such as coal, oil and natural gas throughout the world. A variety of complexities and uncertainties exist in CO₂-emission-related processes and various impact factors, such as CO₂-emission inventory, mitigation measure, and cost parameter. Decision makers face problems of how many clean-energy resources (or carbon credits) are needed to be replaced (or bought) by measuring electric-power benefits and uncertain economic penalties from random excess CO₂ exceeding to given discharge permits. In this study, an integrated optimization modeling approach is developed for planning CO₂ abatement through emission trading scheme (ETS) and clean development mechanism (CDM), where uncertainties presented in terms of fuzzy sets, interval values, and random variables can be addressed. The developed model is also applied to a case study of planning CO₂-emission mitigation for an electric-power system (EPS) that involves three fossil-fueled power plants (i.e., gas, oil and coal-power plants). Different trading schemes and clean-energy development plans corresponding to different CO₂-emission management policies have been analyzed. The results demonstrate that CO₂-emission reduction program can be performed cost-effective through emission trading and clean-energy development projects. Violation analyses are also conducted to demonstrate that different violation levels for model’s objective and constraints have different effects on system benefit and satisfaction degree as well as emission trading and clean-energy development.     

The analysis of CO2 emission reduction using an ExSS model of Guangdong province in China

This paper studied the CO₂ emission scenarios of Guangdong province in 2020 and divided the CO₂ emission increment and reductions into various departments and driving factors. Based on the Extended Snapshot model, two CO₂ emission scenarios, Business as Usual (BaU) and Counter Measure (CM) scenario were constructed. CM scenario was completed by using reduction technical measures to achieve the reduction emission goal. The results showed that the amount of CO₂ emission is less 189 million tonne in 2020 CM scenario than BaU scenario. By decomposing the emission reduction measures in CM scenario, it showed that the main means to reduce CO₂ emissions were the industrial structure adjustment, the advanced energy efficiency and the power sector structure adjustment, and the emission reduction contribution rates were 36.85%, 34.55% and 21.74%, respectively. The analysis results could be recommended to the government to make the low-carbon development policy and path.     

Modeling carbon emission performance under a new joint production technology with energy input

The nonparametric data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology has gained much popularity in assessing carbon emission performance within a joint production framework with energy inputs and CO₂ emissions. The majority of existing studies, however, neglected the interlinkage between energy inputs and CO₂ emissions in their analytical frameworks, which may distort the modeling results. To address this issue, we invoked the weak disposability assumption for both (fossil) energy inputs and CO₂ emissions, and developed a new joint production technology that was found in line with the material balance principle and simultaneously allowed for the flexibility of emission abatement options. Built upon the production technology, we developed two indexes to measure carbon emission performance, and proposed a decomposition model to quantify the roles of different options in abating CO₂ emissions. We also applied the proposed models to study the carbon emission performance of the world's top 25 CO₂ emitters. It was found that carbon emission performance varied across different emitters and different abatement options. Energy efficiency improvement and energy structure adjustment were not of equal importance in pursuing the minimum CO₂ emissions.     

Study on China's low carbon development in an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment framework

Emissions mitigation is a major challenge for China's sustainable development. We summarize China's successful experiences on energy efficiency in past 30 years as the contributions of Energy Usage Management and Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which are essential for low-carbon economy. In an Economy–Energy–Electricity–Environment (E4) framework, the paper studies the low-carbon development of China and gives an outlook of China's economy growth, energy–electricity demand, renewable power generation and energy conservation and emissions mitigation until 2030. A business-as-usual scenario is projected as baseline for comparison while low carbon energy and electricity development path is studied. It is defined as low carbon energy/electricity when an economy body manages to realize its potential economic growth fueled by less energy/electricity consumption, which can be characterized by indexes of energy/electricity intensity and emissions per-unit of energy consumption (electricity generation). Results show that, with EUM, China, could save energy by 4.38 billion ton oil equivalences (toes) and reduce CO₂ emission by 16.55 billion tons; with IRSP, China, could save energy by 1.5 Btoes and reduce CO₂ emission by 5.7 Btons, during 2010–2030. To realize the massive potential, China has to reshape its economic structure and rely much on technology innovation in the future.     

CO2 emissions and mitigation potential in China’s ammonia industry

Significant pressure from increasing CO₂ emissions and energy consumption in China’s industrialization process has highlighted a need to understand and mitigate the sources of these emissions. Ammonia production, as one of the most important fundamental industries in China, represents those heavy industries that contribute largely to this sharp increasing trend. In the country with the largest population in the world, ammonia output has undergone fast growth spurred by increasing demand for fertilizer of food production since 1950s. However, various types of technologies implemented in the industry make ammonia plants in China operate with huge differences in both energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. With consideration of these unique features, this paper attempts to estimate the amount of CO₂ emission from China’s ammonia production, and analyze the potential for carbon mitigation in the industry. Based on the estimation, related policy implications and measures required to realize the potential for mitigation are also discussed.     

Regional development and carbon emissions in China

China announced at the Paris Climate Change Conference in 2015 that the country would reach peak carbon emissions around 2030. Since then, widespread attention has been devoted to determining when and how this goal will be achieved. This study aims to explore the role of China's changing regional development patterns in the achievement of this goal. This study uses the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) to estimate seven socioeconomic drivers of the changes in CO₂ emissions in China since 2000. The results show that China's carbon emissions have plateaued since 2012 mainly because of energy efficiency gains and structural upgrades (i.e., industrial structure, energy mix and regional structure). Regional structure, measured by provincial economic growth shares, has drastically reduced CO₂ emissions since 2012. The effects of these drivers on emissions changes varied across regions due to their different regional development patterns. Industrial structure and energy mix resulted in emissions growth in some regions, but these two drivers led to emissions reduction at the national level. For example, industrial structure reduced China's CO₂ emissions by 1.0% from 2013 to 2016; however, it increased CO₂ emissions in the Northeast and Northwest regions by 1.7% and 0.9%, respectively. Studying China's plateauing CO₂ emissions in the new normal stage at the regional level yields a strong recommendation that China's regions cooperate to improve development patterns.     

Decentralised carbon footprint analysis for opting climate change mitigation strategies in India

Carbon footprint (CF) refers to the total amount of carbon dioxide and its equivalents emitted due to various anthropogenic activities. Carbon emission and sequestration inventories have been reviewed sector-wise for all federal states in India to identify the sectors and regions responsible for carbon imbalances. This would help in implementing appropriate climate change mitigation and management strategies at disaggregated levels. Major sectors of carbon emissions in India are through electricity generation, transport, domestic energy consumption, industries and agriculture. A majority of carbon storage occurs in forest biomass and soil. This paper focuses on the statewise carbon emissions (CO₂, CO and CH₄), using region specific emission factors and statewise carbon sequestration capacity. The estimate shows that CO₂, CO and CH₄ emissions from India are 965.9, 22.5 and 16.9 Tg per year, respectively. Electricity generation contributes 35.5% of total CO₂ emission, which is followed by the contribution from transport. Vehicular transport exclusively contributes 25.5% of total emission. The analysis shows that Maharashtra emits higher CO₂, followed by Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. The carbon status, which is the ratio of annual carbon storage against carbon emission, for each federal state is computed. This shows that small states and union territories (UT) like Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Andaman and Nicobar Islands, where carbon sequestration is higher due to good vegetation cover, have carbon status >1. Annually, 7.35% of total carbon emissions get stored either in forest biomass or soil, out of which 34% is in Arunachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa.     

Transition scenarios of power generation in China under global 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets

Under the Paris Agreement, targets implemented for 2100 specify temperature increases well below 2 °C, with an ambitious target of 1.5 °C. China signed this agreement and will support these global targets. The question remains whether they are possible, especially considering the slow progress in recent decades, despite the fact that the Kyoto Protocol implemented these targets in 2010. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) required modeling research teams to analyze possible pathways, policy options, and cost benefit analyses for GHG mitigation. China’s CO₂ emissions from the energy and cement industries already accounted for almost 29% of global emissions in 2017, and this trend is expected to continue increasing. The role of China in global GHG mitigation is therefore crucial. This study presents a scenario analysis for China’s power generation against the background of the global 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. We discuss the possibility of a lower CO₂ emission power generation scenario in China in order to evaluate the national emission pathway towards these targets. Our findings suggest that China can accomplish rapid transition in the power generation sector, reaching its emission peak before 2025. This would make the global 2 °C target possible because energy system development is a key factor. Furthermore, the recent progress of key power generation technologies, potential for further investment in the power generation sector, and recent policy implementation all significantly contribute to China following a low carbon emission development pathway.     

Impacts of CO2 emission constraints on technology selection and energy resources for power generation in Bangladesh

This paper examines the impacts of CO₂ emission reduction target and carbon tax on future technologies selection and energy use in Bangladesh power sector during 2005–2035. The analyses are based on a long-term energy system model of Bangladesh using the MARKAL framework. The analysis shows that Bangladesh will not be able to meet the future energy demand without importing energy. However, alternative policies on CO₂ emission constraints reduce the burden of imported fuel, improve energy security and reduce environmental impacts. The results show that the introduction of the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon taxes directly affect the shift of technologies from high carbon content fossil-based to low carbon content fossil-based and clean renewable energy-based technologies compared to the base scenario. With the cumulative CO₂ emission reduction target of 10–20% and carbon tax of 2500 Taka/ton, the cumulative net energy imports during 2005–2035 would be reduced in the range of 39–65% and 37%, respectively, compared to the base scenario emission level. The total primary energy requirement would be reduced in the range of 4.5–22.3% in the CO₂ emission reduction targets and carbon tax 2500 Taka/ton scenarios and the primary energy supply system would be diversified compared to the base scenario.     

Energy demand and carbon emissions under different development scenarios for Shanghai,China

In this paper, Shanghai's CO₂ emissions from 1995 to 2006 were estimated following the IPCC guidelines. The energy demand and CO₂ emissions were also projected until 2020, and the CO₂ mitigation potential of the planned government policies and measures that are not yet implemented but will be enacted or adopted by the end of 2020 in Shanghai were estimated. The results show that Shanghai's total CO₂ emissions in 2006 were 184 million tons of CO₂. During 1995–2006, the annual growth rate of CO₂ emissions in Shanghai was 6.22%. Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will rise to 300 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 3.91 times that of 2005. Total CO₂ emissions in 2010 and 2020 will reach 290 and 630 million tons, respectively, under the BAU scenario. Under a basic-policy (BP) scenario, total energy demand in Shanghai will be 160 million tons of coal equivalent in 2020, which is 2.06 times that of 2005. Total CO₂ emissions in 2010 and 2020 in Shanghai will be 210 and 330 million tons, respectively, 28% and 48% lower than those of the business-as-usual scenario. The results show that the currently planned energy conservation policies for the future, represented by the basic-policy scenario, have a large CO₂ mitigation potential for Shanghai.