State of the field: Measuring information and confirmation

The aim of this paper is to survey and discuss some key connections between information and confirmation within a broadly Bayesian framework. We mean to show that treating information and confirmation in a unified fashion is an intuitive and fruitful approach, fostering insights and prospects in the analysis of a variety of related notions such as belief change, partial entailment, entropy, the value of experiments, and more besides. To this end, we recapitulate established theoretical achievements, disclose a number of underlying links, and provide a few novel results.     

History and scientific practice in the construction of an adequate philosophy of science: revisiting a Whewell/Mill debate

William Whewell raised a series of objections concerning John Stuart Mill’s philosophy of science which suggested that Mill’s views were not properly informed by the history of science or by adequate reflection on scientific practices. The aim of this paper is to revisit and evaluate this incisive Whewellian criticism of Mill’s views by assessing Mill’s account of Michael Faraday’s discovery of electrical induction. The historical evidence demonstrates that Mill’s reconstruction is an inadequate reconstruction of this historical episode and the scientific practices Faraday employed. But a study of Faraday’s research also raises some questions about Whewell’s characterization of this discovery. Thus, this example provides an opportunity to reconsider the debate between Whewell and Mill concerning the role of the sciences in the development of an adequate philosophy of scientific methodology.     

Boyle and the origins of modern chemistry: Newman tried in the fire

William Newman construes the Scientific Revolution as a change in matter theory, from a hylomorphic, Aristotelian to a corpuscular, mechanical one. He sees Robert Boyle as making a major contribution to that change by way of his corpuscular chemistry. In this article it is argued that it is seriously misleading to identify what was scientific about the Scientific Revolution in terms of a change in theories of the ultimate structure of matter. Boyle showed, especially in his pneumatics, how empirically accessible, intermediate causes, as opposed to ultimate, mechanical ones can be explored and identified by experiment. Newman is right to observe that Boyle constantly sought intimate links between chemistry and the mechanical philosophy. However, by doing so he did not thereby significantly aid the cause of attaining experimental knowledge of chemical phenomena and the support that Boyle’s chemistry provided for the mechanical philosophy was weaker than both Boyle and Newman imply. Boyle was intent on articulating and defending a strict, mechanical account of the ultimate structure of matter to be sure, but his contributions to the new experimental science in general, and chemistry in particular, are best seen as distinct from that endeavour.     

Types of experiments and causal process tracing: What happened on the Kaibab Plateau in the 1920s

In a well-cited book chapter, ecologist Jared Diamond characterizes three main types of experiment performed in community ecology: laboratory experiment, field experiment, and natural experiment. Diamond argues that each form of experiment has strengths and weaknesses, with respect to, for example, realism or the ability to follow a causal trajectory. But does Diamond's typology exhaust the available kinds of cause-finding practices? Some social scientists have characterized something they call “causal process tracing.” Is this a fourth type of experiment or something else? I examine Diamond's typology and causal process tracing in the context of a case study concerning the dynamics of wolf and deer populations on the Kaibab Plateau in the 1920s, a case that has been used as a canonical example of a trophic cascade by ecologists but which has also been subject to controversy. I argue that ecologists have profitably deployed causal process tracing together with other types of experiment to help settle questions of causality in this case. It remains to be seen how widespread the use of causal process tracing outside of the social sciences is (or could be), but there are some potentially promising applications, particularly with respect to questions about specific causal sequences.     

How human and nature shake hands: The role of no-conspiracy in physical theories

No-conspiracy is the requirement that measurement settings should be probabilistically independent of the elements of reality responsible for the measurement outcomes. In this paper we investigate what role no-conspiracy generally plays in a physical theory; how it influences the semantical role of the event types of the theory; and how it relates to such other concepts as separability, compatibility, causality, locality and contextuality.     

Making the abstract concrete: The role of norms and values in experimental modeling

Experimental modeling is the construction of theoretical models hand in hand with experimental activity. As explained in Section 1, experimental modeling starts with claims about phenomena that use abstract concepts, concepts whose conditions of realization are not yet specified; and it ends with a concrete model of the phenomenon, a model that can be tested against data. This paper argues that this process from abstract concepts to concrete models involves judgments of relevance, which are irreducibly normative. In Section 2, we show, on the basis of several case studies, how these judgments contribute to the determination of the conditions of realization of the abstract concepts and, at the same time, of the quantities that characterize the phenomenon under study. Then, in Section 3, we compare this view on modeling with other approaches that also have acknowledged the role of relevance judgments in science. To conclude, in Section 4, we discuss the possibility of a plurality of relevance judgments and introduce a distinction between locally and generally relevant factors.     

Monthly data and short‐term forecasting: an assessment of monthly data in a VAR model

Use of monthly data for economic forecasting purposes is typically constrained by the absence of monthly estimates of GDP. Such data can be interpolated but are then prone to measurement error. However, the variance matrix of the measurement errors is typically known. We present a technique for estimating a VAR on monthly data, making use of interpolated estimates of GDP and correcting for the impact of measurement error. We then address the question how to establish whether the model estimated from the interpolated monthly data contains information absent from the analogous quarterly VAR. The techniques are illustrated using a bivariate VAR modelling GDP growth and inflation. It is found that, using inflation data adjusted to remove seasonal effects and the impacts of changes to indirect taxes, the monthly model has little to add to a quarterly model when projecting one quarter ahead. However, the monthly model has an important role to play in building up a picture of the current quarter once one or two months' hard data becomes available. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hormone and forskolin-stimulated cyclic AMP accumulation in human lymphocytes: reliability of longitudinal time measurements

Summary Reliability of measurement of lymphocyte cyclic AMP synthesis in intact cells was estimated by taking 3 successive blood samples during a one-month period from 11 healthy volunteers. Isoproterenol and prostaglandin E₁-stimulated cyclic AMP accumulation were used to evaluate the activity of these two receptor activities in human lymphocytes. Forskolin-stimulated cyclic AMP accumulation was used to evaluate the activity of the Ns/catalytic subunit. Only for forskolin was significant reliability observed. For isoproterenol and prostaglandin E₁ significant reliability was observed only for male subjects.Acknowledgment. This work was supported in part by the following organizations: Chief Scientist's Office, Israel Ministry of Health; Herman Goldman Foundation, New York; United Jewish Endowment Fund of Greater Washington-Pollinger Foundation.