西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究

热带气旋和台风是严重的突发性自然灾害之一。近20年来,对热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究成为台风领域的一个重要研究方向,并取得了显著的研究进展。通过对西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的季节、年际和年代际时间尺度变化的研究回顾,揭示了造成热带气旋和台风活动不同时间尺度变化的主要影响机制,其中包括低频振荡、季风槽和西传赤道波动、ENSO和QBO现象等,这些系统主要通过改变西北太平洋上空的环流,而影响到西北太平洋热带气旋活动以及登陆我国台风的不同时间尺度变化。还在西北太平洋海域热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展和作者最新的研究成果的基础上,展望了该领域的研究前景,并提出当前此研究领域中一些亟需研究的科学问题,主要包括了季风槽区能量交换、不同海域动力过程、赤道波动演变,以及热带气旋的季节和更长时间尺度的预测。     

太平洋中部宇宙尘的研究

研究区位于太平洋中部海盆,范围为7—12°N,176E—178°W,定为CP区;CC区位于太平洋东部海盆克拉里昂—克里帕顿断裂之间7—14°N,139—153°W。在CP区、CC区采回大量沉积物样品,对其中30个表层样和6个钻孔柱状样(柱状样取样间距5cm,取836个样     

全球变化背景下热带气旋主要变化特征及影响因素

热带气旋是可以影响全球中低纬度海域的气象现象。系统总结和回顾了国内外热带气旋的主要特征、潜在影响因素及影响机制的相关研究进展,并对其在全球变化背景下的变化趋势进行了总结和剖析。全球变暖以来,热带气旋的源地和路径都出现极移的趋势,移动速度略有增加,频率减小并且强度增大,但各大洋存在显著差异。重点回顾了火山活动、厄尔尼诺—南方涛动和太平洋年代际振荡、太阳辐射、热带辐合带以及气溶胶等因素对热带气旋的影响。其中,火山喷发导致平流层存在大量气溶胶,通过降低海表温度对热带气旋产生消极影响,但这种机制存在地域性差异;厄尔尼诺—南方涛动和太平洋年代际振荡以遥相关的方式调制全球热带气旋活动;太阳辐射和热带辐合带的变化与热带气旋频数存在相关性;气溶胶对不同发展阶段的热带气旋存在相反的影响机制。由于器测热带气旋数据在时间长度上和大部分替代指标在分辨率上的不足,严重制约了全球变化背景下热带气旋潜在影响因素的研究。未来可以通过寻找高分辨率记录载体来量化热带气旋活动历史,进一步解析热带气旋与潜在影响因素的关系,完善在气候波动影响下热带气旋活动的变化机制。     

内乌肯菊石Neuqueniceras在西藏的发现及其由“始中央大西洋”向东的迁移

古生代末形成的联合古陆于中生代早期在其东部沿印度河—雅鲁藏布江一线再次分裂,形成了古陆东端新的特提斯洋;而在古陆西端的中部,大约是在中侏罗世的阿连期或早巴柔期,介于南美和北美大陆之间的中央大西洋扩张脊变得活动起来,导致联合古陆南、北向的分裂,在其开裂初期的前裂谷阶段,始中央大西洋以陆表海形式出现,构成了连接东太平洋和西特提斯洋生物群相互交流的海路通道。其水体的深度以及生物群的交流明显受全球海平面变化的制约,这在中侏罗世东太平洋安第斯生物区特有的生物群沿这条海路向特提斯扩散的幅度和范围上得到体现。安第斯生物区特有的菊石属——内乌肯菊石（Neuqueniceras）在我国西藏南部的首次发现表明,在中卡洛期海平面上升达到高峰期时,安第斯生物群沿始大西洋走廊向东迁移和扩散远达特提斯东端的藏南聂拉木地区。     

南海与台湾岛东部海域浅地层碳酸盐旋回

前人提出南海晚第四纪碳酸钙含量变化存在“大西洋型”和“太平洋型”两种基本类型,本文利用δ¹⁸O、CaCO₃含量、Al₂O₃含量、SiO₂含量、浮游有孔虫丰度及钙质超微化石丰度,来表征南海与台湾东部海域13个柱状样的碳酸盐旋回特征。CaCO₃含量和SiO₂含量通常是表征碳酸盐旋回的良好指标,二者的变化常呈相互消长关系。研究区碳酸盐旋回包括“大西洋型”和“太平洋型”两种标准型式,但也存在不规则形态。“大西洋型”碳酸盐旋回与海平面冰期-间冰期升降旋回密切相关,本文研究的具有该旋回特征的柱状样主要分布在南海水深3000 m以浅区域,其中南海北部碳酸盐旋回很可能伴随着海平面下降（上升）期间富集陆源较粗（细）颗粒物的过程。“太平洋型”碳酸盐旋回在南海现今碳酸钙溶跃面上下很大水深范围都有分布,碳酸钙溶解作用旋回不是“太平洋型”碳酸盐旋回的根本原因。本文研究的台湾东部海域柱状样碳酸盐旋回既不属于大西洋型,也不属于太平洋型。研究区浅地层沉积速率变化与碳酸盐旋回的型式关系不大,主要受控于水深和冰期旋回中海平面变化。随着水深增大,沉积速率趋于增加。MIS2期平均沉积速率大约是MIS1期平均沉积速率的2倍多。     

全球海平面上升影响研究的内容、方法与问题

全球海平面上升影响研究是近年来随着全球变化研究的开展刚刚兴起的研究领域。本文分析了全球变暖引起的下一世纪海平面加速上升对沿海地区自然环境演变和社会经济发展等影响研究的主要内容与方法,并对影响研究中的若干问题进行了讨论。     

全球火山活动分布特征

根据全球活动火山目录 ,分析研究了全球火山分布的特征 ,描述了各区的火山活动分布 ,总结了火山活动强度的时、空分布特征。全球火山活动可分为三大区 ,西太平洋火山活动区 ,主要与太平洋板块向北西西方向的俯冲活动有关 ;东太平洋火山活动区 ,主要与太平洋东面的小板块 (胡安德富卡板块、科科斯、纳斯卡板块 )向美洲板块的俯冲有关 ;大西洋火山活动区 ,与大西洋和非洲的裂开 ,以及地中海带的活动有关。不同火山区带具有各自的最大喷发等级与相应的复发周期。一条火山弧上活动强度的分布往往是不对称的 ,意味着火山弧在整体上有其动力学的控制机理。火山活动显示了随纬度成带状分布。在 - 10～ 0° ,10 2 0° ,30 4 0°,5 0 6 0°分布有高值带。火山喷发活动还与当地的重力势有关 ,重力势正异常可能与高的正压力有关 ,有利于产生特大喷发。火山活动与大角度的正面俯冲带的弧后火山活动最强 ,当板块运动方向与板块边缘走向成小角度相交时 ,缺少正面俯冲的动力 ,火山活动相对平静。     

中全新世福建沿海地区海平面波动：基于NDQK5岩芯介形类化石记录

福建沿海地区第四系较为发育,是研究晚更新世以来相对海平面变化的理想区域。本文以福建宁德NDQK5岩芯中产出的高分辨率介形类化石为研究对象,结合加速器质谱法(accelerator mass spectrometry, AMS)14C和光释光测年技术建立岩芯年代框架,重建了中全新世期间福建沿海地区的相对海平面变化。结果显示,NDQK5岩芯中的介形类化石记录主要分布于4~17. 1 m段,对应年代约为8. 2~6. 9 ka BP。岩芯内共计识别出海相介形类23属26种,根据优势种以及特征种的相对丰度变化特征可将岩芯内的介形类动物群划分为3个组合：① 介形类组合A以Bicornucythere bisanensis和Sinocytheridea impressa为主,代表潮下带环境;② 介形类组合B以Sinocytheridea impressa和Neomonoceratina delicata为优势种,指示近岸内陆架的沉积环境;③ 介形类组合C以Sinocytheridea impressa和Loxoconcha ocellifera为主,代表潮间带的沉积环境。基于介形类组合的分布特征,本文推断福建沿海地区海平面约在8. 2~7. 4 ka BP期间持续上升,并在约7. 9~7. 4 ka BP区间达到最高;7. 4~7. 0 ka BP期间海平面下降,随后再次上升。因此,介形类化石记录指示福建沿海地区在全新世高海平面背景下依然存在相对海平面的次一级波动。同时,结合已有福建沿海地区海平面变化驱动机制的研究结果,本研究推断8. 2~7 ka BP期间福建沿海地区的海平面变化可能主要受控于冰盖融水;7 ka BP后该地区的海平面波动可能受控于“冰川- 水均衡调整”作用。     

一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数及其强弱变化之大气环流场差异

文章提出了一个新的东亚冬季风强度指数,并以此为依据从1948～1999年中挑选出两组强弱冬季风年份,通过合成分析对大气环流场和海表温度场在强弱东亚冬季风年的差异进行了对比分析。结果表明:东亚冬季风强度变化不单纯受局地气候系统影响,而与北半球半球尺度上的大气环流异常紧密相连。相对于弱的情形,强东亚冬季风年份中国大陆中东部及其东部大部分海域在整个对流层盛行偏北风距平、乌拉尔阻高显著加强、欧洲大陆西部维持一个深厚的气旋性异常环流系统、西风带环流偏弱、200hPa层南亚高压偏弱;中国大陆、北极地区、蒙古国大部分地区、欧洲大陆西北部表面温度降低;我国大陆与北太平洋海平面气压差加大;东亚大槽加强。研究还揭示,强东亚冬季风年份对应于北大西洋涛动弱指数,北大西洋和北太平洋海温状况对同期东亚冬季风强弱有着显著的影响     

中国近海潮汐变化对外海海平面上升的响应

针对外海海平面上升对中国沿海潮波系统和潮汐水位可能带来的影响,通过西北太平洋潮波数学模型对边界海平面上升后潮波变化进行了数值模拟。研究发现边界海平面上升后,在无潮点附近东侧迟角增加,西侧迟角减小;无潮点北侧振幅增加,南侧振幅减小;辽东湾、渤海湾顶、辽东半岛东海域、海州湾至鲁南沿海、苏北沿海、台湾海峡至浙东沿海和南海平均潮差增加,海平面上升0.90 m后潮差最大增幅达0.40 m;长江口、杭州湾至对马海峡、朝鲜西海岸和莱州湾海域潮差减小。随着海平面上升量值的增加,渤海、台湾海峡潮差变化速率相对稳定,黄海、东海和南海站位变化速率有所变动;平均高水位的变化趋势与潮差一致;潮差增加的区域,高水位抬升幅度超过边界海平面上升幅度。海平面上升引起的高水位超幅变化,增加了沿海地区对风暴潮和其他灾害防护的风险。     

A Comparative Analysis of Main Modes of Global-scale Sea Surface Temperature on Multiple Time Scale

Using the HadISST data from 1880 to 2009, removed the signal of global warming in one hundred year. The results show that, there were the significant interannual and interdecadal oscillation signal at the eastern Pacific and north Pacific and north Atlantic, especially the decadal oscillation in the south of eastern equatorial Pacific cannot be ignored. We found there are three major global-scale signals by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis on global sea surface temperature, the first mode is (ENSO-like/PDO-like) Pacific pattern, the second mode is (AMO-like) the north Atlantic pattern and the third mode is (ENSO Modoki-like/CP ENSO-like) Center Pacific Ocean pattern. In particular, the third mode is the performance of Center Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the global mode. There are significant signals in interannual and interdecadal scales, in the unfiltered conditions, the three modes can explain 34% of total variance contribution. Above the interdecadal scale, the sum of three modes variance contribution is 61%. In various time scales, the three signals and the average global temperature has a connection, especially the influence of the first and second mode is the most important, in the decadal scale, the sum of the first and second modal variance contribution is 50%. Since 2005, there is no significant signal of global warming may be associated with the simultaneous decline of the first two modes.     

Tropical cyclone activity in global warming scenario

Research efforts focused on assessing the potential for changes in tropical cyclone activity in the greenhouse-warmed climate have progressed since the IPCC assessment in 1996. Vulnerability to tropical cyclones becoming more pronounced due to the fastest population growth in tropical coastal regions makes it practically important to explore possible changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming. This paper investigates the tropical cyclone activity over whole globe and also individually over six different ocean basins. The parameters like storm frequency, storm duration, maximum intensity attained and location of formation of storm have been examined over the past 30-year period from 1977 to 2006. Of all, the north Atlantic Ocean shows a significant increasing trend in storm frequency and storm days, especially for intense cyclones. Lifetime of intense tropical cyclones over south Indian Ocean has been increased. The intense cyclonic activity over north Atlantic, south-west Pacific, north and south Indian Ocean has been increased in recent 15 years as compared to previous 15 years, whereas in the east and west-north Pacific it is decreased, instead weak cyclone activity has been increased there. Examination of maximum intensity shows that cyclones are becoming more and more intense over the south Indian Ocean with the highest rate. The study of the change in the cyclogenesis events in the recent 15 years shows more increase in the north Atlantic. The Arabian Sea experiences increase in the cyclogenesis in general, whereas Bay of Bengal witnesses decrease in these events. Shrinking of cyclogenesis region occurs in the east-north Pacific and south-west Pacific, whereas expansion occurs in west-north Pacific. The change in cyclogenesis events and their spatial distribution in association with the meteorological parameters like sea surface temperature (SST), vertical wind shear has been studied for Indian Ocean. The increase in SST and decrease in wind shear correspond to increase in the cyclogenesis events and vice versa for north Indian Ocean; however, for south Indian Ocean, it is not one to one.     

深海温度变化对太阳活动的响应

通过太平洋、大西洋深海温度场谱分析发现,地球海洋温度变化广泛盛行着22年尺度的年代际周期性变化,这种22年变化周期在深层海洋中更为清楚。分析认为,这是地球海洋温度场对太阳磁场周期性变化的响应。世界海洋不同海域深海温度对于太阳磁场磁性22年周期响应的相位存在显著不同,南北大西洋海温变化相位相差115度,即变化趋势接近相反;南北太平洋海温变化相位相差19度,南太平洋变化超前。另外,太阳活动所激发的海温变化的振荡幅度在不同海域也有显著差异,北大西洋海温22年周期振幅为0.07℃,而南大西洋则高达018℃,是北大西洋的2.5倍之多!在太平洋中,北太平洋深海温度22年周期振幅最大,南太平洋次之,赤道中太平洋最小     

南极科考断面水汽同位素观测与模拟及其反映的水循环信息

大气水汽同位素实时监测为水循环和区域大气环流分析提供了新的定量化方法. 依托雪龙号考察船, 利用水同位素激光光谱仪(PICARRO L1102-i)完成了38° N~69° S海表大气水汽氢氧稳定同位素的观测, 结合表层海水和GNIP降水同位素分析了多相水同位素纬向特征. 结果表明: 水汽、降水和表层海水同位素比率(δ¹⁸O, δD)随纬度呈明显的递变性规律, 赤道最低, 副热带升高, 而在南极大陆外围高纬区域则急剧降低;过量氘(d-excess)变化与此相反, 反映出副热带下沉气流对同位素富集影响以及高纬度极地气团经过洋面时过饱和分馏的剧烈变化. 实测水汽同位素与LMDZ4-iso和ECHAM5-wiso模型对比表明了模拟结果较好, 根据模拟进一步分析了南极内陆Dome A水汽同位素反映的水汽源区. 结果显示, 除了中纬度印度洋海区之外, 中低纬东太平洋海域也是冰盖内陆的重要水汽源区.     

Paleogeography of Cretaceous ammonoids of the Pacific coast of Russia

This work presents the results of a study of the biogeographical distribution of Late Albian-Maastrichtian ammonites, found in sequences of the Pacific coast of Russia. The taxa typical of the Pacific Realm were identified, and their distribution traced beyond the borders of this region. In addition, species-migrants, distributed within the studied area were established. As a results of our works, a high level of endemism of ammonite fauna of the East of Russia was noted (75–88% of endemic species, on average). The bipolarity, previously established in the distribution of ammonoids within the Pacific Paleobiogeographical Realm, as well as their high regional provincialism, was confirmed. The following division of the studied area into faunal ammonite provinces in the Late Cretaceous was proposed: Arctic Province; Boreal-Pacific Province, including northeastern Russia (Chukotka Peninsula, the Koryak Upland, Penzhyna Gulf) and the boreal coast of North America (Alaska Peninsula, Arctic Canada and British Columbia); Northwest Pacific Province, including the Primorye Territory, Sakhalin and Shikotan Islands, the Japanese Islands; Northeast Province of the Pacific (the western coast of the United States and Mexico); Southwest Pacific (Australia, New Zealand, Oceania) and Southeast (the western coast of South America and Antarctica, Seymour and James Ross Islands) Provinces. This division is confirmed by data on inoceramid species. In addition, levels of global transgressions and general sea level rise, associated with the appearances of most of widespread marine taxa in the Pacific shelf seas, are established. These include Late Albian, Cenomanian-Turonian boundary, Late Coniacian, Late Campanian, Early-Late Maastrichtian boundary. Moreover, migration of ammonites occurred due to the Tethys Ocean extension and followed the northern sea straits in the Arctic Ocean and within the Pacific Realm, depending on warm currents. Both the counter and one-way migrations were established.     

North Indian Ocean warming and sea level rise in an OGCM

The variability in the long-term temperature and sea level over the north Indian Ocean during the period 1958–2000 has been investigated using an Ocean General Circulation Model, Modular Ocean Model version 4. The model simulated fields are compared with the sea level observations from tide-gauges, Topex/Poseidon (T/P) satellite, in situ temperature profile observations from WHOI moored buoy and sea surface temperature (SST) observations from DS1, DS3 and DS4 moored buoys. It is seen that the long (6–8 years) warming episodes in the SST over the north Indian Ocean are followed by short episodes (2–3 years) of cooling. The model temperature and sea level anomaly over the north Indian Ocean show an increasing trend in the study period. The model thermocline heat content per unit area shows a linear increasing trend (from 1958–2000) at the rate of 0.0018 × 10¹¹ J/m² per year for north Indian Ocean. North Indian Ocean sea level anomaly (thermosteric component) also shows a linear increasing trend of 0.31 mm/year during 1958–2000.     

热点作用背景下的洋中脊跃迁和扩展作用:印度洋盆地张开过程探讨

在《印度洋底大地构造图》的基础上,分析了印度洋盆构造格局和洋盆演化重大事件序列,并从印度洋盆初始裂解机制、扩张中心跃迁与热点作用、洋中脊扩展作用等方面讨论了印度洋盆的张开过程,提出以下几点认识:(1)现今印度洋洋中脊可分为两个系统:东南印度洋中脊-中印度洋中脊-卡斯伯格洋脊系统(东支)和西南印度洋中脊系统(西支),前者是太平洋洋中脊扩展作用的产物,后者是太平洋-东南印度洋中脊与大西洋中脊之间构造调节的产物;(2)印度洋盆最初裂解受地幔柱垂向挤压-水平伸展作用控制,沿前寒武造山带等地壳薄弱带发育;(3)印度洋盆经历两次扩张中心的跃迁,其趋向性跃迁方向与热点相对板块的运动方向具有一致性,显示两者存在内在联系。(4)大西洋和太平洋洋中脊在印度洋交汇,于古近纪连通,末端伴随陆块持续发生碎裂化、裂解化,可称为鱼尾构造模式,表明印度洋盆衔接和调节了三大洋盆的发育和演化过程,具有全球洋盆枢纽的关键意义。     

从东海石油地质重要进展看西太平洋大陆边缘新生代盆地的构造演化——一种海沟向洋后退的残余弧后盆地演化模式

东海盆地石油地质研究在近二十年里主要取得五方面的进展 :证明了盆地是由一组大陆边缘新生界由西向东逐个变新的“盆地群体”组成 ,建立了陆架地区以组为单位的整个新生代地层单元 ,详细划分了西湖凹陷的内部地质结构 ,认定了煤和煤系沉积是东海陆架区的主力油气源岩 ,通过大量钻井验证了盆地中三类不同成因的圈闭。从环西太平洋盆地形成的地球动力学背景看 ,西太平洋是一个自北而南的沟—弧—盆 (陆缘海 )系统 ;大体以台湾海峡为界 ,东海盆地是一个由转换或被动边缘演化而来的聚敛边缘 ,而南海属于由活动或聚敛边缘转化而来的被动边缘。东海盆地与菲律宾海盆地具有相似的时空演化特征 ,由此论证了东海新生代盆地属于残余弧后向洋后退盆地     

Controls on deglacial changes in biogenic fluxes in the North Pacific Ocean

The subarctic North Pacific Ocean holds a large CO₂ reservoir that is currently isolated from the atmosphere by a low-salinity layer. It has recently been hypothesized that the reorganization of these high-CO₂ waters may have played a crucial role in the degassing of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere during the last deglaciation. This reorganization would leave some imprint on paleo-productivity records. Here we present ²³⁰Th-normalized biogenic fluxes from an intermediate depth sediment core in the Northwest Pacific (RC10-196, 54.7°N, 177.1°E, 1007 m) and place them within the context of a synthesis of previously-published biogenic flux data from 49 deep-sea cores north of 20°N, ranging from 420 to 3968 m water depth. The ²³⁰Th-normalized opal, carbonate, and organic carbon fluxes from RC10-196 peak approximately 13,000 calendar years BP during the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) period. Our data synthesis suggests that biogenic fluxes were in general lowest during the last glacial period, increased somewhat in the Northwest Pacific during Heinrich Event 1, and reached a maximum across the entire North Pacific during the B/A period. We evaluate several mechanisms as possible drivers of deglacial change in biogenic fluxes in the North Pacific, including changes in preservation, sediment focusing, sea ice extent, iron inputs, stratification, and circulation shifts initiated in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Our analysis suggests that while micronutrient sources likely contributed to some of the observed changes, the heterogeneity in timing of glaciogenic retreat and sea level make these mechanisms unlikely causes of region-wide contemporaneous peaks in export production. We argue that paleo-observations are most consistent with ventilation increases in both the North Pacific (during H1) and North Atlantic (during B/A) being the primary drivers of increases in biogenic flux during the deglaciation, as respectively they were likely to bring nutrients to the surface via increased vertical mixing and shoaling of the global thermocline.