新型城镇化进程中农村居民消费模式与消费协调研究

新型城镇化背景下,收入增加激发了居民消费潜力,居民消费逐渐呈现出多样性,农村居民消费模式也发生了重大变化。作为新兴消费群体,农村居民消费增长与消费模式变化在拉动国民经济增长、促进经济增长方式改变中起着重要的作用。本文基于消费协调视角对农村居民新阶段的消费模式进行了研究,探讨如何优化农村居民消费模式,改善消费结构,使农村居民消费模式与社会、经济、自然环境相协调,与国民经济绿色发展大战略相协调,构建消费机制,促进新型城镇化建设进程。     

我国农村居民消费的层次演变初探

消费结构变化一直是国外经济学家研究的重点之一。本文基于消费结构变化理论,根据1991～2006年我国农村部分收入和消费数据,分析了农村地区基础性的食物消费与其他消费的关系及各自所属层次,并进一步得出结论,我国农村居民消费是按层次结构发展的,农村居民肉类消费还有较大的增长空间。     

农村居民牛肉消费特征及影响因素分析

利用2002—2011年的统计数据,对农村居民牛肉消费特征进行了总结:农村居民人均牛肉消费量总体上不断增加,农村居民人均牛肉消费量占人均猪牛羊肉消费量的比例持续波动,农村居民牛肉消费的地域差别明显。利用面板数据进行了回归分析,分析结果:农村居民人均纯收入、牛肉价格和猪肉价格是影响农村居民牛肉消费的显著性因素,并且农村居民牛肉消费对收入更为敏感。     

基于ELES模型的中国城镇居民食品消费需求系统研究

利用2008-2018年中国31个省份城镇居民食品消费支出和人均可支配收入数据,运用ELES模型对中国城镇居民食品消费需求系统进行研究,分析各类食品的边际消费倾向、基本消费需求、需求收入弹性和自价格弹性.主要研究结论是:水产品、饮食服务消费将成为未来食品消费的主要增长点,但饮食服务消费的增长速度会有所放缓;水产品消费将...     

收入增长对城乡居民消费差异化的影响分析——基于拓展LA/AIDS模型

将我国城乡居民收入增长因素引入到LA/AIDS模型中,实证检验了消费结构受收入增长影响的显著性水平,并进一步对比消费支出弹性系数和收入增长差异,考察居民收入增长对其消费结构影响的内在作用机制并探索如何采取相应措施控制城乡居民收入增长差距来缩小消费的差距。结果表明:首先,我国各地区城乡居民在消费结构和消费形式上趋于一致;其次,加快农村居民收入增长、控制城乡居民收入差距有助于降低衣着、居住、生活用品、医疗保健和其他类商品的消费差距,而保持农村居民收入增长、缩小城乡居民收入差距有助于降低食品、交通通信、教育文化娱乐的消费差距;最后,收入增长对城乡居民消费差异化的影响具有区域性的特点。     

我国卷烟需求分析(下)-卷烟需求模型实证分析与结论

运用1997~2002年中国烟草行业和相关的宏观经济数据,对我国卷烟需求模型进行了实证分析,研究表明,居民消费支出、卷烟价格、地区差异、经济增长、产业升级、城镇居民恩格尔系数、农村居民消费支出,以及卷烟平均消费倾向变化对我国卷烟需求均有显著影响。中国卷烟需求增长的潜力市场在中西部和农村,在当前良好的宏观经济条件下,卷烟需求增长是市场作用的客观结果,卷烟生产每年增长3%~4%才能初步缓解市场需求矛盾。     

中国城乡居民养殖产品及其加工品消费趋势分析

运用2003~2008年间国内部分省市城乡居民养殖产品及其加工品消费支出与家庭人均可支配收入统计面板数据,结合扩展线性支出系统模型(ELES),分析了我国城乡居民养殖产品及其加工品的消费趋势。结果表明,农村居民收入提高后对肉类、水产品、禽类等养殖产品消费的增长空间较大;而城镇居民则对肉禽加工品、奶类及加工品需求更富有弹性。     

北京市农村居民消费需求分析

在建设全面小康社会中，北京市农村居民的消费结构将不断发生变化。本文根据北京市农村居民实际消费情况，利用扩展线性支出模型，对消费需求现状进行基本需求、边际消费倾向和收入需求弹性分析，并据此提出更好地满足农村居民消费需求的政策建议。     

我国城镇居民食品消费需求分析与预测模拟

食品消费关系社会民生,是居民消费的重要组成部分。基于2006—2012年全国31个省份城镇居民食品消费支出和收入数据,运用ELES模型实证分析我国城镇居民食品消费需求系统。在此基础上,运用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)模拟2013—2017年各食品的收入弹性。结果表明:水产品长期具有高档食品特征,对收入变动十分敏感,其与奶制品是今后食品消费增长的主要动力;肉禽和蔬菜基本需求逐期递增,收入弹性具有收敛趋势;受农村居民向城市转移的影响,粮食、蛋类等低价食品的消费需求增加;生存型消费支出约占30%,食品消费结构逐步向膳食均衡转变。     

我国粮食需求预测

利用时间序列模型预测未来一定时期中国农村和城镇居民人均食物消费,再结合城镇化、人口增长、料肉比等相关数据,对中国粮食总需求进行预测.研究结果显示,我国粮食总需求呈现出增加趋势,截至2020年,粮食总需求量为60 390.93万t,口粮消费量将减少,饲用粮消费量将持续增加,且大约在2015年,饲用粮消费量将超过口粮,两者在2020年将分别达到27 470.22万t、18415.71万t;到2020年城镇居民口粮和饲用粮消费量均将超过农村居民.本文根据此研究结果,提出相关的政策建议.     

Impact of improved maize adoption on household food security of maize producing smallholder farmers in Ethiopia

In recent years, maize has gained prominence as an important staple crop in Ethiopia second only to teff in terms of acreage. Most of this is grown by semi-subsistence farm households whose livelihoods are tied to crop production and some livestock keeping. Therefore, an important policy question concerns the impact that the reported maize revolution has had on household food security. This paper answers that question by examining the empirical regularities that explain the adoption of improved maize varieties (IMVs) and how this has impacted household food security in a sample of 2327 maize producing households in 39 districts of Ethiopia. An endogenous switching regression model supported by the dose-response continuous treatment effect method was used to empirically assess the impact of IMV adoption on per capita food consumption expenditure and perceived household food security status. Results show that IMV adoption has a robust and positive impact on per capita food consumption and also significantly increases the probability of a smallholder being in food surplus. The advances in the adoption of improved maize has thus contributed significantly to the food security of maize producing smallholders, confirming the role of crop improvement in contributing to food security of agrarian households.     

Impact of farm level corruption on the food security of households in Bangladesh

In this article, we have analyzed the impact of farm level corruption on households’ food security using survey data collected from 210 Bangladeshi rice farmers. Econometric results confirm that the cost of corruption adversely affects households’ calorie consumption. The marginal effect of corruption is higher for the low expenditure households relative to the high expenditure households. This happens because the high expenditure households exhibit more flexibility in terms of adjusting their budgets and hence, are able to cover the cost of corruption without affecting their food consumption, whereas for the low expenditure households such flexibility is limited and hence are forced to compromise on their food budget. Variables such as the better education of women and land holding also positively contribute to food security.     

The effect of climbing bean adoption on the welfare of smallholder common bean growers in Rwanda

This paper assessed the effect of climbing bean adoption on the welfare of the bean growers in Rwanda, using four indicators: per capita consumption expenditure, poverty head count, quantity of bean consumed per person and food security. The analysis was based on cross sectional data from a nationally representative survey of bean growers, conducted in 2011. Instrumental variables and control function approaches were used to address the endogeneity of climbing bean adoption decisions in household welfare outcomes. Results demonstrated that investments in climbing bean research and dissemination efforts contributed significantly to improve household welfare. One additional kilogram of climbing bean seed planted raises per capita consumption expenditure by 0.9% and that of bean consumption by 2.8%, and increases the probability that a household is food secure by 0.6% while decreasing the likelihood of being poor by 0.6%. These findings highlight the important role climbing bean adoption can play in reducing food insecurity and poverty in land constrained areas.     

鲜湿糙米线品质劣变机理及调控技术研究进展

全谷物以其对营养健康的重要作用在全世界得到了广泛关注。鲜湿糙米线作为营养健康的全谷物主食食品存在更易腐败、老化变硬、易断条、蒸煮损失率高等问题。系统阐述了鲜湿米线品质影响因素,鲜湿糙米线在储藏过程中的水分含量、pH值、蒸煮品质、水分迁移、质构、微观结构等品质变化规律,分析了鲜湿糙米线品质劣变机理;并进一步对选择糙米原料、外源添加物、糙米全籽粒磨粉及回填法制备工艺等鲜湿糙米线品质调控技术2016—2023年最新研究进展进行了综述,为鲜湿糙米线的品质调控和品质提升提供参考。     

Improving food security through agricultural research and development in Timor-Leste: a country emerging from conflict

Timor-Leste is a small, poor and predominantly-agricultural nation of less than 1 million people. Most families suffer from chronic food insecurity practising food rationing 1–6 months of the year. The small size of Timor-Leste, its recent birth as a nation and conflict history, together with little previous research on staple crops make it a unique crucible to test the effect of a major post-conflict initiative of agriculture research on national food security. Research started in 2000 with the introduction of germplasm of staple crops (maize, peanut, rice, cassava and sweet potato). Replicated trials confirmed by extensive evaluation in farmer-managed trials revealed significant yield advantages over the local cultivar in maize of 53%, in peanut of 31%, in rice of 23% and in sweet potato of 80%, accompanied by improvements in size and eating quality. Cultivars of maize (2), peanut (1), rice (1) and sweet potato (3) were released in 2007. One year later an early adoption study of 544 farmers involved in on-farm trials showed that 73% had re-grown new cultivars. Cultivar adoption not only increased household food security but often produced surpluses for sale in the market—sometimes for the first time. The project is planning to increase seed production and dissemination to move from a highly positive pilot-scale impact in six Districts to impact food security nationally.     

Aspirations and food security in rural Ethiopia

Despite some improvements in recent years, poverty and food insecurity remain widespread and the main challenges in Ethiopia. Much of the empirical literature focuses on identifying the resource-related constraints for farmers to achieve food security and move out of poverty, with little attention paid to ‘internal’ or psychological factors such as aspirations. Using individual and household data collected in rural Ethiopia, we examined if aspirations were strongly associated with well-being outcomes, in our case food security, as posited in the theoretical framework of aspirations failure. We found that aspirations of the household head were positively and strongly associated with various triangulating measures of household food security including per-capita calorie consumption, the food consumption score (FCS), the household dietary diversity score (HDDS), and negatively associated with the household food insecurity access scale (HFIAS). In contrast, results suggest that the aspirations of the spouse of the household head are negatively associated with per-capita calorie consumption and FCS. We discuss the channels through which aspirations may affect food security and the avenues for future research.     

Does consumption of tobacco and alcohol affect household food security? Evidence from rural India

Using a nationally representative household-level dataset on consumption expenditure, this paper examines the crowding-out effects of tobacco and alcohol spending on food and non-food consumption in rural India. We found a positive relationship between spending on these temptation goods and household income, but in proportionate terms the poor and socially-disadvantaged households spent more on such goods compared to others. In general, their consumption crowded out food expenditure but not as much as non-food expenditure. Tobacco expenditure crowded out more of consumer durables followed by foodgrains, healthcare and education. However, among the poor, foodgrains were traded-off more. Likewise, spending on alcohol also crowded out foodgrains, but the effects were larger for consumer durables and starker among the poor. Across social groups too, consumption of tobacco as well as alcohol led to a reallocation of budgets with consumer durables being most displaced followed by foodgrains. On the whole, the crowding out effects were larger for tobacco than alcohol and were greater for households belonging to the lower rungs of both income and social order. We identified that such crowding-out effects operated through peer effects or social interactions; hence the key inference is that government interventions aimed towards controlling tobacco or alcohol consumption would be more effective if these targeted peer groups and their group leaders.     

Improved production systems for traditional food crops: the case of finger millet in western Kenya

Increasing agricultural productivity through the dissemination of improved cropping practices remains one of the biggest challenges of this century. A considerable amount of literature is dedicated to the adoption of improved cropping practices among smallholder farmers in developing countries. While most studies focus on cash crops or main staple crops, traditional food grains like finger millet have received little attention in the past decades. Traditional food grains have however an important potential to improve food security, reduce micronutrient deficiencies, and enhance smallholder adaptation to climate change. The present study aims to assess the factors that influence adoption decisions among finger millet farmers in western Kenya. Based on cross-sectional household data from 270 farmers, we estimated a multivariate probit model to compare the adoption decisions in finger millet and maize production. While improved practices such as the use of a modern variety or chemical fertilizer are relatively well adopted in maize production, they are less common in finger millet production. Social networks as well as access to extension services play crucial roles in the adoption of improved finger millet practices, while the same variables are of minor importance for the adoption of improved maize practices. A Cobb-Douglas production function shows a positive effect of modern varieties and chemical fertilizer on finger millet yields.     

Household food insecurity in Timor-Leste

Timor-Leste is among the world’s youngest and poorest countries. It suffers from seasonal food insecurity and has the third-highest stunting rate globally. Previously inadequately documented, this paper summarises recent advances in understanding household food security in Timor-Leste and the multifaceted approaches being used to overcome it. Information comes from the extensive annual surveys of the Seeds of Life (SoL) program in Timor-Leste. The hungry season prior to maize and rice harvests is the key issue in household food security in Timor-Leste. Farm households cope with the problem through crop diversification with tubers playing a lead role as grain stocks dwindle. Foraging for wild food resources, selling animals and other assets, and social networks are other coping strategies. To address seasonal food insecurity, the government has focused on rice importation and the improvement of agricultural productivity within a multi-dimensional program. Information on storage by households of the key staple, maize, indicates an improving trend in food security at the household level from 2006/2007 to 2010/2011 through a significant reduction in the percentage of ‘at risk’ households—those who grow insufficient maize for storage during the year. The current emphasis on the widespread dissemination of the new high-yielding SoL cultivars has the potential to augment these improving trends. Nevertheless this picture remains vulnerable to weather shocks—such as drought—which are anticipated to increase with climate change and it is important to build further resilience into the agricultural systems of Timor-Leste.     

低蛋白调制大米的研究进展

慢性肾脏病(chronic kidney disease,CKD)发病率在我国呈逐年上升趋势,低蛋白饮食(low protein diet,LPD)是延缓CKD病情发展有效的食疗方法之一。本文就近年来日益受到广泛关注的低蛋白调整大米的研究方法进行了综述和展望,分析了包括育种栽培、物理方法、化学方法、生物技术降解等方法的优势与不足。其中利用生物技术降解整粒大米蛋白,能够在保持大米原有完整性和口感的同时大幅度降低其蛋白含量,产品更适合肾病患者长期食用。我国约2/3居民以大米为主食,肾病患者人数越来越多,而国内相关的低蛋白产品还相对较少,无法大众化,故从改善患者主食方面研制出符合患者饮食习惯的低蛋白大米的市场前景非常可观。