2000年国际政治形势评析

2000年国际多极格局框架得到进一步发展;各大国为了各自的政治与安全利益,增强彼此间的双边多边合作;部分重要的地区冲突和热点问题逐步降温,地区政治形势更加变化莫测.这将对21世纪最初十年的国际政治形势产生巨大的影响.     

From Lab Experiments to Real Negotiations: An Investigation of International Iron Ore Negotiations

Negotiation researchers have conducted a large number of experimental lab studies to identify the factors that affect negotiation outcomes, but it remains unclear whether those results can be generalized to real‐world negotiations. To explore this question, we analyzed the dynamic international iron ore annual negotiations that took place from 2005 to 2009. We found evidence that supports two important findings from previous experiments. Specifically, we focused on the impact of negotiators’ best alternatives and first offers on negotiation prices using multiple case study analysis. We found that iron ore prices increased more when the gap between the previous year's negotiated price and the price on the alternative spot market, a public market in which commodities are traded for immediate delivery, was larger, which suggested that buyers were sensitive to the strength of this alternative, supporting the literature on the role of alternatives. We also found that the first offer price significantly influenced the final price. Our findings extend two important experimental findings from the negotiation literature to large‐scale business negotiations in the real world.     

《国际体系中的中国角色》评介

为纪念改革开放30周年,上海市社会科学界联合会组织上海社科精英撰写并推出五卷本《纪念改革开放30年丛书》(包括政治、经济、社会、文化、国际关系),已由中国大百科全书出版社出版。该丛书被列为上海市哲学社会科学规划课题项目,其中的国际卷《国际体系中的中国角色》①由俞新     

How NGOs Use Their Facilitative Negotiating Power and Bargaining Assets To Affect International Environmental Negotiations1

This article argues that NGOs can “tip the balance” in favor of particular outcomes at international environmental negotiations by leveraging a combination of facilitative negotiating power and discreet bargaining assets. It uses the international climate change negotiations to illustrate how NGOs employ their facilitative power and bargaining assets, which stem from NGOs' transnational character, ability to increase the transparency of negotiations, and claims to legitimacy.     

How NGOs Use Their Facilitative Negotiating Power and Bargaining Assets To Affect International Environmental Negotiations1

This article argues that NGOs can “tip the balance” in favor of particular outcomes at international environmental negotiations by leveraging a combination of facilitative negotiating power and discreet bargaining assets. It uses the international climate change negotiations to illustrate how NGOs employ their facilitative power and bargaining assets, which stem from NGOs’ transnational character, ability to increase the transparency of negotiations, and claims to legitimacy.     

Breaking Deadlocks in International Institutional Negotiations: The WTO, Seattle, and Doha

Negotiations among members of international institutions often stalemate yet the outcomes vary. Sometimes talks end in impasse and other times in agreement. Several familiar theories are unable to explain the contrast between two prominent outcomes in the World Trade Organization—its 1999 deadlock in Seattle and its 2001 agreement in Doha, Qatar, on an agenda for a new round. Extensive original evidence from these cases documents mechanisms that can tip the negotiation process between impasse and agreement in any institution, not only economic ones. The study illustrates benefits for international relations research of building on the relatively neglected tradition of negotiation analysis, a substantial part of which is outside political science.     

A Brief Review of Current International Situation and China＇s Diplomacy

The current international situation is volatile and highly complicated with abrupt changes. Various contradictions develop successively, and different challenges present them- selves one after another.     

International Relations in Portugal: The State of the Field and Beyond

This paper appraises the evolution of International Relations (IR) as an academic discipline in Portugal before engaging in an examination of the present state of the field. It is concerned with historical issues, associated with the discipline's journey towards its standing as a social science in its own right in Portuguese intellectual life. It considers institutional developments including those recently generated by the implementation of the Bologna framework for IR courses taught at national academic institutions. The Appendix offers an introduction to Portuguese IR publications.     

The Current State of Global Military Security

The world military security situation has entered a period of readjustment and transformation following the events of 9/11 and the ensuing war against terror. The "arc of crisis" in peripheral areas of the Eurasian continent and other regions is unsettled or tumultuous. Confronted by these new situations and challenges, military forces throughout the world have reassessed their respective strategic environment and adopted new transforming measures, which have brought about a dramatic change in military circumstances, thinking and operation in every country. More specifically, the U.S. unipolar military power has expanded, while at the same time is constrained by various internal and external factors. Worldwide military competition is becoming more complicated. Nuclear proliferation and upgrading has steadily developed, paving the way for an arms race on land, sea and in the air. Thus, the world's military situation is becoming more complex, with various factors-conflicts between unilateral and multilateral poles, cooperation and competition,readjustment and transformation, stability and instability-all interconnected.     

The Method is the Message: The Current State of Political Communication Research

Formal journalism ethics, as laid out in codes of ethics by journalism associations and the like, is part of a wider debate on media ethics that has been triggered in the Middle East due to the advent of global media in the region. This study compares journalism codes from Europe and the Islamic world in order to revisit the widespread academic assumption of a deep divide between Western and Oriental philosophies of journalism that has played a role in many debates on political communication in the area. The analysis shows that there is a broad intercultural consensus that standards of truth and objectivity should be central values of journalism. Norms protecting the private sphere are, in fact, more pronounced in countries of the Near and Middle East, North Africa, and in the majority of Muslim states in Asia than is generally the case in Europe, although the weighing of privacy protection against the public's right to information is today a component of most journalistic codes of behavior in Islamic countries. Obvious differences between the West and many Islamic countries are to be found in the status accorded to freedom of expression. Although ideas of freedom have entered formal media ethics in the Middle East and the Islamic world, only a minority of documents limit the interference into freedom to cases where other fundamental rights (e.g., privacy) are touched, whereas the majority would have journalists accept political, national, religious, or cultural boundaries to their work. Despite existing differences between Western and Middle Eastern/Islamic journalism ethics and in contrast to the overall neoconservative (Islamist) trends in societal norms, formal journalism ethics has been a sphere of growing universalization throughout the last decades.     

试论宪制变革的国际维度——基于俄罗斯的实证考察

后冷战时期不断变幻的国际环境,对长期存在的许多威权主义政体提出了挑战。国际环境之民主化影响,在不同地区呈现出不同形式。民主理念和制度并没有在全球得以均衡地传播,相反却因地缘和文化的接近而带有许多偶然性。在俄罗斯,无论是与西方的联系还是西方的影响,都是相对程度较低的,外部民主化压力的影响也是十分有限的。通过经济发展和民主之间的因果机制研究,以丰富和完善当下的民主理论。     

国际环境安全:现实困境与理论思考

基于当今世界中发达国家与发展中国家在环境安全观与战略上主要呈现为一种“极化竞争”、而不是“合作取向”的现实格局 ,作者提出 ,要想真正创建一种持久性或可分享的国际环境安全体系 ,就必须引入一种“超越民族国家至上地位和传统经济社会利益束缚”的生态主义理论视角。     

浅析沙特阿拉伯在国际气候变化谈判中的立场与策略

在应对气候变化的谈判中,作为世界上最大的产油国,沙特阿拉伯的立场十分引人注目。应对气候变化的措施对石油生产构成了制约,对沙特的经济发展也产生了负面影响。基于此,沙特确定了它在应对气候变化国际谈判中的基本立场。但由于自身的影响难以左右谈判的发展方向,因此该国时常采用同步前进、反复宣传负面影响、推迟谈判、对程序性规则作出自己的解释等杯葛策略,来表达和维护自己在气候谈判中的利益和诉求。     

核出口控制的国际规则制定:美国在多边谈判中的行为模式

美国向来被视作国际核不扩散机制的主导者。然而,尽管积极倡导实行核出口控制,美国却未能始终对该领域的国际规则制定施加影响。在核供应国集团中,相较于利益诱惑与威胁这一动用物质实力的谈判方式,美国更倾向于为规则主张的正当性提供辩护,以此推进核供应国集团准则的修改。不过,基于核不扩散规范的此种辩护,也未能保证美国达成其目标。多边谈判中两种参与谈判的行为方式分别为“议价”与“论辩”,在现有研究中对其给予了理论上的区分。在大多数情况下,美国在两种谈判方式之中选择“论辩”。对美国这一选择倾向的分析,从成本导向的理性选择着眼。此外,为解释在正当性论辩这一谈判方式之下影响谈判结果的要素,提出了基于利益分配关系的心理机制。案例分析聚焦卡特、老布什、小布什三届政府在核供应国集团中发起的四次准则修改行动,四次行动在谈判方式的选择和谈判结果上呈现鲜明对比。文章旨在深入认知大国在多边规则制定中的权力及其界限。国家行为体对于正当性论辩的关注及其在论辩中面临的困境,在规则与规范之争趋于激烈化的国际安全领域,都是日益普遍的现象。     

Sources of Power in Public Negotiations: A Framework Applied to Public-Public and Public-Private Negotiations

The negotiation literature has extensively examined the topic of power and how it can be wielded. Numerous frameworks have been created and utilized in the various treatises on negotiations; analyzing the power differential in any given situation is a common teaching technique. However, despite this focus on the topic, discussions of power have been mainly focused on negotiations in the private sector. As a result, many of the most common frameworks are oriented toward this type of situation, resulting in a clumsy application to a public-sector negotiation. Given the growing importance of negotiations to public-sector leaders, we provide a new structure for analyzing power that can be utilized in such situations. For a municipal leader confronted with a complex public-private partnership, it is important to have the right tools to use when examining the power dynamics at play. After examining several current models of power, as well as other writings on the topic in negotiation and strategy literature, we present a new model. This model divides power into different categories based on whether it stems from formal or informal mechanisms, and then offers several specific forms relevant to the public sector. We then use this new model to examine a case study involving the new mayor of Manchester, New Hampshire and her efforts to negotiate a better response to the opioid and homelessness crisis. This case study illustrates the unique nature of public sector negotiations and provides a roadmap for negotiators looking to use our new framework.     

当前国际格局的演变和我国外交工作

国际金融危机导致国际格局深刻演变。世界多极化和经济全球化强劲发展,国际力量均衡化、国际秩序合理化趋势深入推进,国际思想领域进入深刻反思期和活跃建构期。但世界力量格局北强南弱的局面仍将长期存在,多极化发展仍然是一个长期曲折过程。我国在十一五时期外交大有作为,加速进入世界舞台的显著位置。十二五时期恰逢世界进入后危机时代,我国面临的历史机遇和严峻挑战并存,机遇仍大于挑战。外交工作宜牢牢抓住为发展服务的主线,为我国经济社会长期平稳、较快发展创造有利的外部条件,实现在新时期的新发展、新跨越。     

研究国际体系的全新视角——《世界历史中的国际体系：重塑国际关系学》评介

当代 ,全球化浪潮正使世界联为一体 ,任何国家都不可能忽视别国因素而独立行事。在此背景下 ,主流国际关系理论如新现实主义、新自由主义、世界体系论等从结构、相互依赖和体系的意义上来解释国际关系。新兴的建构主义、女性主义等理论也从各自不同的角度理解国际关系的不同层面。 2 0 0 0年 ,正在众多理论争鸣于学术界时 ,英国学派新一代学者威斯敏斯特大学国际关系学教授巴里·布赞和布里斯托尔大学政治学教授理查德·利特尔在其新著《世界历史中的国际体系 :重塑国际关系学》① (以下简称《重塑》)中 ,对主流国际关系理论发起挑战 ,为我…