河西内陆河流域绿洲面积对地表径流的响应

利用NASA AVHRR NDVI 3g遥感资料计算得出河西内陆河流域植被归一化指数(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index,NDVI),将NDVI＞0.20区域视为绿洲,通过计算绿洲区NDVI的变差系数和线性斜率分析1982-2013年绿洲面积变化,并进一步分析其对地表径流的响应...     

河西内陆河流域水生态安全评价研究

水安全评价相关研究已有较多成果,但绝大多数采用P-S-R(压力-状态-响应)及其扩展模型,且评价指标体系的优化校准几乎从未提及.本文将W-SENCE(与水有关的社会-经济-自然复合生态系统)模型引入水生态安全评价领域,从水生态安全的自然属性和社会经济属性方面构建水生态安全评价指标体系,结合模糊系统分析及改进生态位理论对...     

中国内陆河流域植被对气候变化的敏感性差异(英文)

Terrestrial ecosystem and climate system are closely related to each other. Faced with the unavoidable global climate change, it is important to investigate terrestrial ecosystem responding to climate change. In inland river basin of arid and semi-arid regions in China, sensitivity difference of vegetation responding to climate change from 1998 to 2007 was analyzed in this paper. (1) Differences in the global spatio-temporal distribution of vegetation and climate are obvious. The vegetation change shows a slight degradation in this whole region. Degradation is more obvious in densely vegetated areas. Temperature shows a gen-eral downward trend with a linear trend coefficient of -1.1467. Conversely, precipitation shows an increasing trend with a linear trend coefficient of 0.3896. (2) About the central tendency response, there are similar features in spatial distribution of both NDVI responding to precipitation (NDVI-P) and NDVI responding to AI (NDVI-AI), which are contrary to that of NDVI responding to air temperature (NDVI-T). Typical sensitivity region of NDVI-P and NDVI-AI mainly covers the northern temperate arid steppe and the northern temperate desert steppe. NDVI-T typical sensitivity region mainly covers the northern temperate desert steppe. (3) Regarding the fluctuation amplitude response, NDVI-T is dominated by the lower sensi-tivity, typical regions of the warm temperate shrubby, selui-shrubby, bare extreme dry desert, and northern temperate meadow steppe in the east and temperate semi-shrubby, dwarf ar-boreous desert in the north are high response. (4) Fluctuation amplitude responses between NDVI-P and NDVI-AI present a similar spatial distribution. The typical sensitivity region mainly covers the northern temperate desert steppe. There are various linear change trend re-sponses of NDVI-T, NDVI-P and NDVI-AI. As to the NDVI-T and NDVI-AI, which are influ-enced by the boundary effect of semi-arid and semi-humid climate zones, there is less cor-relation of their linear change tendency along the border. There is stronger correlation in other regions, especially in the NDVI-T in the northern temperate desert steppe and NDVI-AI in the warm temperate shrubby, selui-shrubby, bare, extreme and dry desert.     

近50年来ENSO与祁连山区气温、降水和径流的对应关系

El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The correspondingrelationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain areaare analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, theresults show that effects of El Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in thedifferent time and zones. When El Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decreasein the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperaturerises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year ElNino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature,precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.     

The relationship between ENSO cycle and temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area

El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between E1 Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date fi‘om the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of E1 Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When E1 Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature,precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.     

The relationship between ENSO cycle and temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area

El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of El Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When El Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature, precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.     

近50 年来祁连山及河西走廊降水的时空变化

利用1960-2009 年的日降水量资料,采用线性趋势、5 年趋势滑动、IDW 空间插值、Morlet 小波分析、Mann-Kendall 突变检验等方法,对祁连山及河西走廊地区不同等级降水日数和降水强度的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:不同等级降水日数和降水强度的多年平均在空间上既表现出东西分异,也表现出南北分异;不同等级降水日数的年际变化在绝大部分区域呈增多趋势,且自东向西增幅减小,大雨强度的年际变化在绝大部分区域呈增大趋势,其它等级降水强度为部分区域呈增大趋势,部分区域呈减小趋势;小雨、中雨日数的年际变化呈显著增多趋势,大雨日数呈明显增多趋势,暴雨日数呈不明显增多趋势,小雨、大雨强度的年际变化呈不明显减小趋势,中雨、暴雨强度呈不明显增大趋势;不同等级降水日数变化的周期集中在2a、5a、8a、11a、19a,不同等级降水强度变化的周期集中在2a、5a、11a、15a、25a;除小雨强度突变减小外,其它等级降水日数均突变增多,降水强度均突变增大,降水量的增加主要是降水日数的增多造成的,其中小雨、中雨日数的增多贡献最大。     

1960年以来中国天山冰川面积及气候变化

Based on the statistics of glacier area variation measured in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960,the response of glacier area variation to climate change is discussed systematically.As a result,the total area of the glaciers has been reduced by 11.5% in the past 50 years,which is a weighted percentage according to the glacier area variations of 10 drainage basins separated by the Glacier Inventory of China (GIC).The annual percentage of area changes (APAC) of glaciers in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains is 0.31% after the standardization of the study period.The APAC varies widely for different drainage basins,but the glaciers are in a state of rapid retreat,generally.According to the 14 meteorological sta-tions in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains,both the temperature and precipitation display a marked increasing tendency from 1960 to 2009 at a rate of 0.34℃·(10a)-1 and 11 mm·(10a) -1,respectively.The temperature in the dry seasons (from November to March) increases rapidly at a rate of 0.46℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation grows slowly at 2.3 mm·(10a)-1.While the temperature in the wet seasons (from April to October) grows at a rate of 0.25℃·(10a)-1,but the precipitation increases at 8.7 mm·(10a)-1.The annual and seasonal climatic trends ac-celerate the retreat of glaciers.     

近50年来新疆天山山区水循环要素的变化特征与趋势

天山山区由于其特殊的地理位置与高海拔,成为新疆地表径流的主要产流区域。近几十年来,全球平均气温的持续上升对该区域气温、降水、径流等水循环要素产生重要的影响。根据天山南北坡有关水文气象台站的观测资料,系统地分析了该区域1960年代以来各水循环要素的变化特征与趋势。结果表明,受全球变暖的影响,1980年以来整个天山地区气温和降水均呈明显的上升趋势,其中10 a气温的升幅更为显著;对于降水而言,天山南坡降水增幅大于北坡,而南坡的西段是近10 a降水增幅最大的区域。受气温上升与降水增加的影响,天山地区出山径流总体上呈增加的趋势,其中,近10 a天山南坡中西段河流出山径流量增幅最为显著,平均增幅在30%以上。     

黑河流域中上游地区降水中氢氧同位素与温度关系研究

根据黑河流域中上游地区所取得的降水水样和降水气象资料,分析了该区域降水中氢氧同位素随温度的变化特征,研究了内陆河黑河流域中上游地区降水中氢氧同位素与温度的关系,揭示了降水中氢氧同位素随温度的变化规律。降水中氢氧同位素与温度有很好的正相关关系,且与降雨前后平均气温之间的相关性优于与降雨前和降雨后气温之间的,温度与δ~(18)O之间的相关性优于与δD的。在黑河流域,局地性降水的增加影响降水中氢氧同位素与温度之间的关系,在山前或山前盆地,因局地性降水增加,所以降水中氢氧同位素与温度的关系与山区相比较差。     

水资源约束下的内陆河流域农村劳动力转移研究——以黑河流域张掖市为例

农村劳动力转移和城乡协调发展是各国工业化与城市化发展的普遍现象。目前中国已进入城市化的快速发展期,但同时面临着严重的"三农"问题。内陆河流的劳动力转移除了受经济条件、体制条件的制约外,还深受水资源条件的约束。通过对水资源自然赋存格局和变化状态,时空分布与利用关系的分析,透视资源性缺水与结构性缺水,证明水资源条件的约束性持续存在并有加重的趋势。在保证生态环境良性运行和经济社会持续发展的前提下,分析计算水资源对人口和经济的承载力,结果表明,人口处于超载状态。因此以同步实现水资源的高效配置、缓解水资源压力和农村劳动力转移为主线,通过建立回归模型,分三个层次具体探讨了水资源约束条件下,农村劳动力在农业内部转移、从农业向非农业转移、从农村向城镇转移规模。通过上述劳动力三个层次的转移分析,基本上能够把水资源承载力条件下超载的人口转移出去。     

近50 a来祁连山及河西走廊极端气候的时空变化研究

 在全球变暖背景下,极端气候发生的频率增大,气象灾害造成的损失也随之增加。利用20个气象站1960-2009年的日平均气温和日降水量资料,运用线性趋势法、Spline空间插值法、Morlet小波分析法,对祁连山及河西走廊极端气候的时空变化特征进行了研究。结果表明：极端高温天数呈显著增加趋势,年际变化率为0.79d/a,20世纪90年代中后期之后极端高温天气发生的频率较高;极端低温天数呈显著减少趋势,年际变化率为-0.54d/a, 80年代中后期以来极端低温天气发生的频率较低;极端降水天数也呈显著增加趋势,年际变化率为0.02d/a,70年代中后期之后极端降水天气发生的频率较高。极端气温和降水的年际变化幅度存在区域差异,南部山区比走廊平原对全球气候变暖的响应敏感。极端高温天数和极端低温天数在8a、22a左右周期变化明显,其中22a是第一主周期;极端降水天数在6a、10a、22a左右周期变化明显,其中22a是第一主周期;从22a的周期变化推测,2010年以后11a左右极端高温天数偏少,极端低温天数偏多,极端降水天数偏少。     

干旱内陆河流域人居环境适宜性评价——以石羊河流域为例(英文)

The study employs slope,aspect,relief degree of land surface,land use,vegetation index,hydrology and climate,as evaluation indexes to set up the Human Settlements Environmental Index(HEI) model to evaluate the environmental suitability for human settlements in the Shiyang River Basin.By using GIS spatial analysis technology,such as spatial overlay analysis,buffer analysis and density analysis,the environmental suitability of the human settlement spatial situation and spatial pattern are established to analyze their spatial distribution.The results show that the index of suitability for human settlements in the Shiyang River Basin is between 17.13 and 84.32.In general,suitability for human settlements decreases from the southwest to the northeast.Seen from an area pattern,the suitable region is mainly distributed in the Minqin oasis,Wuwei oasis and Changning basin,which are about 1080.01 km 2 and account for 2.59% of the total area.Rather and comparatively suitable region is mainly distributed around the counties of Gulang,Yongchang and north of Tianzhu,which is about 1100.30 km 2.The common suitable region is mainly distributed outside the counties of Yongchang,Jinchuan and most parts of Minqin County,which are about 23328.04 km 2,accounting for 56.08% of the total area.The unsuitable region is mainly distributed upstream and to the north of the river,which is about 9937.60 km 2,accounting for 23.89% of the total area.Meanwhile,the least suitable region is distributed around the Qilian Mountains,which are covered by snow and cold desert and lie in the intersecting area between the Tengger Desert and Badain Jaran Desert.The total area is about 6154.05 km 2,accounting for 14.79% of the total area.Suitable regions for human habitation are mainly distributed around rivers in the form of ribbons and batches,while others are scattered.The distribution pattern is identical to the residential spatial pattern.In addition,the relationships between HEI and other factors have been analyzed.There is a clear logarithmic correlation between the residential environment and population,that is,the correlation coefficient between the evaluation value and population density reaches 0.851.There is also a positive correlation between the residential environment and economy,which reaches an evaluation value of 0.845 between the residential environment and GDP.Results also show that the environment is out of bearing with the existing population in Shiyang River Basin.Spatial distribution of population is profoundly affected by severe environmental problems,such as the expanded deserts,the hilly terrain and the changing climate.Surface water shortage and slow economic growth are bottlenecks for suitable human settlement in the Shiyang River Basin.Combining these problems with planning for construction of new country and the exploitation of local land,some residential areas should be relocated to improve the residential environment.     

西北内陆河流域“自然—社会—贸易”三元水循环模式解析

持续的强人类活动大大改变了流域水循环演变的结构、路径和驱动力,后者又反过来影响着人类生存发展的水安全。日益深入的市场经济使人类活动对水循环的影响从一个流域扩展到流域之外更宽广的区域范围,以产品贸易为纽带的水“流动”已成为驱动区域水循环演变与影响区域水安全的重要内在因素。以流域为单元的传统水循环研究,难以揭示不同区域之间的水循环联系、双向回馈机制与协同进化机理。本文从西北内陆河流域长期大量输出高耗水农产品这一现象分析入手,采用理论解析与案例相结合方法,阐述分析内陆河流域自然水循环、“自然—社会”二元水循环、区域间贸易水循环的基本过程、显著特征及其驱动机制,继而首次明确提出内陆河流域“自然—社会—贸易”三元水循环模式,并就其通量计量模型、影响因素与生态环境效应、科学前沿进行了探索分析,以便未来西北内陆河水循环、水文水资源等研究能更多重视对驱动内陆河流域水循环的外部力量及其双向互馈、协同进化的分析,更新内陆河流域水安全、生态安全的思考范式。     

半干旱区季节性河流在荒漠化发育中的作用——以内蒙古四子王旗塔布河流域为例

荒漠化发育方式和过程的各不相同 ,具有明显的地域性和成因差异性特点。半干旱区季节性河流在荒漠化地貌发育中的作用是引人注目的一个科学问题。内蒙古四子王旗塔布河流域内有丰富的第三系和第四系河湖相冲 (洪 )积沉积物。该流域正发生着内蒙古乌兰察布盟最严重的荒漠化。本文基于LandsatTM图像的处理与分析 ,对该区季节性河流流域的荒漠化程度、分布及其成因作了研究 ,探讨了风 -水复合作用下荒漠化发育的具体模式。在干旱 -半干旱的气候背景下 ,地表植被稀疏、甚至裸露 ,在暴雨作用下 ,形成的洪流搬运大量泥沙碎屑物质沉积在中下游的宽谷地带 ,随着河道的淤积、抬高与加宽 ,干燥的流沙向两岸蔓延 ;再在特殊地段河道的“狭管效应”与局部气流循环共同作用下 ,流沙向四周进一步扩展 ,与山前洪积扇相连 ,造成荒漠化大范围的发生和发展 ,并可能导致整个地区的荒漠化。     

祁连山干旱山地草地生物量对水分条件的响应

以祁连山排露沟流域干旱山地为研究对象,对海拔2 700~3 000 m典型草地群落的草本种类、高度和生物量等进行调查,并同步测定样地内的土壤水分,分析草地生物量随海拔高度的季节性变化特征以及草本生物量和土壤水分的关系。结果表明：（1）草地地上生物量平均值为135.36 g·m^-2,并随海拔升高呈先增加后降低的"单峰"变化模式,在海拔2 900 m时最高,为176.79±28.37 g·m^-2。地下生物量平均值为946.13 g·m^-2,并随海拔升高生物量呈递增趋势,在海拔3 000 m时最高,为1 301.19 ±68.24 g·m^-2。（2）草地地上、地下生物量在不同海拔高度间差异性显著（P<0.05）;该流域干旱山地草地根冠比在4.14~11.95之间变化。（3）在生长季5~9月份,干旱山地草地土壤含水量在9.23%~31.31%之间波动,平均值为14.94%。（4）草本地上、地下生物量与土壤平均含水量均呈显著正相关（P<0.05）,相关性系数分别为0.7784和0.7843。在不同海拔草地群落中,不同土层含水量对草地生物量的贡献不尽相同,但60 cm以上根系主要分布层内的水分对草地生物量具有重要的意义。     

Variations of the alpine precipitation from an ice core record of the Laohugou glacier basin during 1960-2006 in western Qilian Mountains,China

The net accumulation record of ice core is one of the most reliable indicators for reconstructing precipitation changes in high mountains. A 20.12 m ice core was drilled in 2006 from the accumulation zone of Laohugou Glacier No.12 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, China. We obtained the precipitation from the ice core net accumulation during 1960-2006, and found out the relationship between Laohugou ice core record and other data from surrounding sites of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results showed that during 1960-2006, the precipitation in the high mountains showed firstly an increasing trend, while during 1980 to 2006 it showed an obvious decreasing trend. Reconstructed precipitation change in the Laohugou glacier basin was consistent with the measured data from the nearby weather stations in the lower mountain of Subei, and the correlation coefficient was 0.619 (P<0.001). However, the precipitation in the high mountain was about 3 times more than that of the lower mountain. The precipitation in Laohugou Glacier No.12 of the western Qilian Mountains corresponded well to the net accumulation of Dunde ice core during the same period, tree-ring reconstructed precipitation, the measured data of multiple meteorological stations in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau, and also the changes of adjacent PDSI drought index. Precipitation changes of the Laohugou glacier basin and other sites of the northeastern Tibetan Plateau had significantly positive correlation with ENSO, which implied that the regional alpine precipitation change was very likely to be influenced by ENSO.     

中国内陆河流域尺度的水资源利用率提高研究--黑河流域水-生态-经济管理试验示范

水资源是人类生存和社会发展中最重要的成分，中国内陆河的可持续发展所面临的生态问题源自有限的水资源和高的人口压力这两个方面的不协调。通过总结“黑河流域水-生态-经济系统试验示范研究”项目近几年在涵养水源、绿洲尺度的水利用率提高和流域水-生态-经济系统中的水资源配置的部分试验成果和研究进展，以实际事例展示了在流域尺度上提高水资源利用率的可行性和潜力。加强基础研究、引入“虚拟水”等创新意识、通过专家和管理层的结合可进一步提高流域水资源利用率。     

干旱区内陆河流域地下水调蓄系统与水资源开发利用模式

对于解决干旱区内陆河流水资源的调蓄问题,人们已习惯采用"高坝大库"的工程技术方案。通过分析国内外地下水库的建设经验,结合干旱区内陆河流地貌单元、储水构造特征以及水资源转化特点,提出了建设山间凹陷、山前凹陷和深覆盖河谷型等三种地下水库的具体设想及相应的适宜地段,并以此为基础,提出了一种以地下水库调蓄为主,地下水与地表水统一调度的流域水资源开发利用的新模式,以期使水资源的开发利用更加合理、科学、经济。这种新模式是实现干旱区内陆河流域水资源高效利用、合理配置的有益尝试,充分体现了因地制宜、人与自然和谐的治水新理念。     

气候变化情景下青海湟水流域径流变化的HIMS模拟分析

基于国产HIMS(Hydro-Informatic Modeling System)模型,以青海湟水流域为研究区域,利用1986-2000年33个雨量站和8个气象站的逐日降水和气温数据,对其径流变化进行模拟;选取流域内6个水文站同期的实测径流数据,进行参数率定及验证。结果表明:HIMS模型日、月率定及验证结果良好,在湟水流域具有良好的适用性。在此基础之上,分析了湟水流域1961-2010年降水及气温的变化趋势,并对不同气候变化情景下的水文响应(径流量)进行模拟分析。结果显示气候变化对湟水流域径流量变化趋势影响显著,随气温升高和降水量的减少,径流量呈明显的减少趋势,反之,呈增加趋势。