国外人口普查：从全面调查到行政记录

人口普查的传统方法是全面调查。这种方法的缺陷是成本高、居民负担重和数据质量不高。为了改变这个局面．一些国家正在尝试或者是已经把行政记录作为人口普查数据来源。     

Katrina in historical context: environment and migration in the U.S.

The massive publicity surrounding the exodus of residents from New Orleans spurred by Hurricane Katrina has encouraged interest in the ways that past migration in the U.S. has been shaped by environmental factors. So has Timothy Egan’s exciting book, The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of those who survived the Great American Dust Bowl. This article places those dramatic stories into a much less exciting context, demonstrating that the kinds of environmental factors exemplified by Katrina and the Dust Bowl are dwarfed in importance and frequency by the other ways that environment has both impeded and assisted the forces of migration. We accomplish this goal by enumerating four types of environmental influence on migration in the U.S.: (1) environmental calamities, including floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes, (2) environmental hardships and their obverse, short-term environmental benefits, including both drought and short periods of favorable weather, (3) environmental amenities, including warmth, sun, and proximity to water or mountains, and (4) environmental barriers and their management, including heat, air conditioning, flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In U.S. history, all four of these have driven migration flows in one direction or another. Placing Katrina into this historical context is an important task, both because the environmental calamities of which Katrina is an example are relatively rare and have not had a wide impact, and because focusing on them defers interest from the other kinds of environmental impacts, whose effect on migration may have been stronger and more persistent, though less dramatic.     

The meaning and measurement of race in the U.S. census: Glimpses into the future

The 1996 Racial and Ethnic Targeted Test (RAETT) was a "mail-out mail-back" household survey with an experimental design of eight alternative questionnaire formats containing systematic variations in race, instructions, question order, and other aspects of the measurement. The eight different questionnaires were administered to random subsamples of six "targeted" populations: geographic areas with ethnic concentrations of whites, blacks, American Indians, Alaskan natives, Asian and Pacific Islanders, and Hispanics. The major conclusion is that allowing multiple responses to the "race" question in the 2000 census (and other variations in measurement that were considered in RAETT) had only a slight impact on the measured racial composition of the population. Another finding was a dramatic reduction in nonresponse to the combined race/Hispanic-origin question relative to all other questionnaire formats. We conclude that the concept of "origins" may be closer to the popular understanding of American diversity than is the antiquated concept of race.     

对美国2000年人口普查的准确性和数字评估调查的评价

2000年准确性和数字评估调查结束后,美国学者对该项调查进行了评价,本文概述了他们的主要观点。     

Preprocessing the 1960–1970 U. S. census public use samples

This is a report on computer programming undertaken to preprocess the 1960–1970 U. S. census public use samples to increase their accessibility. This includes wholesale recoding into positive integers from 1 to N, with 0 reserved for “not applicable”, combining household and person records, sorting records into ten 1/10,000 samples, compacting binary codes to fit on a single reel of tape, and the production of a revised set of formatted tapes.     

A comparison of the environmental attitudes, concern, and behaviors of native-born and foreign-born U.S. Residents

This research offers an examination of environmental attitudes, concern, and behaviors among individuals presently living within the context producing contemporary American environmental awareness, but who originated from contexts socially, environmentally, and economically distinct. More specifically, data from the 1993 environmental module of the General Social Survey are used to examine variations in environmental awareness across native-and foreign-born individuals. Results suggest that immigrants living in the U.S. do, indeed, express similarattitudes toward environmental issues as compared to native-born residents. However, shorter-term immigrants (those residing abroad at age 16) in particular express significantly higher levels ofconcern with regard to environmental problems as compared to native-born residents. In addition, shorter-term immigrants are more likely to engage in “environmentally friendly” behaviors as compared to native-born residents, although they appear less likely to have signed an environmentally oriented petition.     

美国农村人口迁移与启示

美国农村人口迁移始于 2 0世纪 2 0年代 ,结束于 6 0年代 ,均为自发性的移民。其农村人口迁移具有阶段性 ,第一阶段主要是迁往大城市 ,且具有较高文化层次的选择性 ,第二阶段移民则不具有文化选择性 ,移民规模与非农经济发展呈正相关关系 ,移民迁出地与迁入地的距离与移民规模也是呈正相关。美国农村人口迁移的经验 ,对我国农村人口迁移有一定启示。     

Assessing structural change in U.S. migration patterns: a log-rate modeling approach

"A set of log-rate models is proposed to transform Rogers and Wilson's accounting-based migration models into statistics-oriented migration models. This study demonstrates not only how log-rate models can be used to replicate results generated from Rogers-Wilson's cohort and multi-region mobility models, but also how log-rate models can be used to make statistical inferences and to derive more parsimonious models. Estimation issues and model fit are discussed, and case studies with U.S. mobility and interregional migration data are provided. The flexibility of log-rate models is emphasized, and possible uses for such models, such as the testing of various hypotheses and migration projection, are explored. Potential applications and limitations of log-rate models are also discussed." (EXCERPT)     

Kidnap risks and migration: evidence from Colombia

Using a unique data set from the major Colombian cities collected between 2000–2003 and with information on more than 12,000 households, this paper studies the relationship between the kidnap risk a household faces with its migration decisions. We find evidence that exposure to such risk induces households to react sending some of their members to an international destination but not necessarily to a domestic one. Estimates are robust to the inclusion of several household characteristics usual in the migration literature, other crime risks, reported feelings of insecurity of the household, and an alternative measure of kidnap risk.     

Using administrative data to estimate population displacement and resettlement following a catastrophic U.S. disaster

After a large scale evacuation, authorities need to know the new and frequently changing population distributions in order to meet needs for housing, schools, health care, and other services. This paper reviews literature from the fields of demography and other disciplines to identify available administrative data sets that can form the basis of sound, relevant, and timely county-level population estimates following a catastrophic U.S. event. The most appropriate data to estimate population in damaged counties will be disaster-specific data such as housing damage estimates and FEMA applicant counts initially, and later electric accounts and USPS active residences. In heavily damaged counties, data on electric accounts and USPS active residences may not be consistently collected for many months, during which time sample surveys may be needed. For counties that receive an influx of population, school enrollment data provide the most appropriate basis for population estimates. Population estimates for large, heavily damaged counties are highly uncertain. Sensitivity analysis when using estimates for planning in these areas is recommended. The Census Bureau can build on this research by codifying recommendations to local authorities for developing frequent post-disaster population estimates.     

Emigration from the USA: Multiplicity survey evidence

Special national surveys in the 1980s give the only recent data about emigrants from the USA, based on asking residents about their parents, siblings, and children living outside the USA who ever lived here. Each of the three surveys yielded an initial or minimal estimate of at least one million surviving emigrants. Adjusting for probable omission of emigrants without a resident immediate relative, the number of emigrants surviving as of 1990 is likely to exceed two million and, with alternative assumptions, could exceed three million. Due to inherent uncertainties in differing methodologies for measuring emigration for the past three decades, the implied level of emigration of permanent residents for the 1980s may be similar to previous levels. This finding contradicts popular belief of a simple direct association, i.e., that increasing immigration levels would be associated with increasing emigration levels. Emigration levels result from population heterogeneity on such characteristics as origin country, location and strength of familial ties, and reasons for coming to the USA, and associated probabilities of emigration. For many of the post-1965 immigrant cohorts, there is one or more decades during which emigration may yet occur.Abbreviations ALAs Americans living abroad - INS US Immigration and Naturalization Service - IRCA Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 - CPS Current Population Survey This article is partially based on a paper presented at the 1990 annual meeting of the Population Association of America in Toronto, Canada, while the author was a member of the Population Analysis Staff of the US Bureau of the Census.     

The U.S. 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and undocumented migration to the United States

One of the major goals of the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) is to reduce the number of undocumented immigrants coming to and residing in the United States. This goal is pursued by allocating increased resources to Border Patrol enforcement, imposing penalties on employers for hiring undocumented workers, and offering to legalize the undocumented population that has resided in the country for a substantial period of time. This paper evaluates the impact of IRCA on the flow of undocumented migrants across the U.S.-Mexican border by analyzing a monthly time series of Border Patrol apprehensions from January 1977 to September 1988 within the context of a multivariate statistical model. The model provides a good fit to the data (R² = 0.94), and our results indicate that INS resources, Mexican population growth, comparative economic conditions on both sides of the border, and seasonal factors related to the agricultural planting and harvesting cycle are all determinants of border apprehensions and, by implication, of the flow of undocumented migrants to the United States. IRCA's impacts on the number of ‘apprehensions averted’ operate mainly through changes in INS effort, the SAWs agricultural legalization program, and other IRCA-related factors. Our analysis concludes that the effects of IRCA, though perhaps smaller than sometimes alleged, were associated with a cumulative net reduction in linewatch apprehensions of nearly 700,000 in the 23-month period following enactment of the law. The associated reduction over the same period in the number of illegal border crossings may be as high as 2 million.     

Contraceptive sterilization in the U. S.: 1965 and 1970

There was an impressive increase between 1965 and 1970 in the prevalence of contraceptive sterilization, an increase that accelerated in the later years of the period and was shared in by virtually all subgroups considered. Among couples in 1970 for whom sterilization had been an option (recognizing that it is a terminal method), about one of every five had chosen this method of contraception. About half of all sterilizations were vasectomies, though vasectomies have outnumbered tubal ligations in recent years. Differentials in prevalence and in increases during 1965–1970 are reported for a number of life-cycle and social variables. In addition, a profile of the contraceptive sterile is presented for recent sterilizations. Significant proportions are relatively young and of low parity at the time of sterilization. In the context of the continued diffusion of the pill and IUD and increases in legal abortion, the net demographic effect of increasing sterilization is regarded as low, though sterilization is an important component of an effective fertility control regime.     

Delayed childbearing in the U.S.: facts and fictions

Between 1970-82, the proportion of 1st births in the US to women 25 and older rose from 19-36% and the proportion of women still childless at ages 25-34 increased by 56% at about the same time. Although a sharp contrast with the baby boom era of the 1950s and 1960s, todays's epidemic of delayed childbearing is similar to patterns earlier in the 20th century. As then, much is due to delayed age at marriage, but baby boomers now in the their late 20s and early 30s are also delaying childbirth after marriage. The trend stems in part from their economic difficulties as they compete in a tight job market caused both by their large numbers and a turbulent economy. But it is also related to women's increasing education and, in turn, increasing opportunities in and commitment to the labor force, which can be expected to encourage a delayed childbearing even after prospects brighten for young people. Although a diverse group, most of today's delayed childbearers are white, highly educated, 2-career couples. Adequate daytime care for preschool children is a prime concern. Although more employers now offer childcare assistance and flexible work schedules to working parents, the juggle between jobs and childraising can be a strain. On the plus side are delayed childbearers' greater maturity and generally higher incomes, which can ease potential problems created by parent-child age differences as their children grow up. Businesses have been quick to respond to the new market of older, affluent, 1st-time mothers. New methods of treating of circumventing infertility and prenatal detection of chromosomal birth defects can now help overcome potential biological problems that may concern women who choose to delay childbearing past age 30.     

Dynamic flow modeling with interregional dependency effects: an application to structural change in the U.S. migration system

Causative matrix methods can be used to project levels of population change, to monitor changing migration trends, and to aid in forecasting movement during periods of consolidation and dissipation. They are appealing because they provide measures of the changing strengths of all interregional dependency effects. Separate competing destinations and competing origins perspectives on temporal change can be obtained. The column sums and the eigenvalues provide useful aggregate gauges of the relative strengths of regional shifts. Patterns of U.S. interregional migration from 1935 to 1982 are examined using the causative matrix approach. Trends in the gross migration streams underlying the dramatic increase in core-periphery net migration taking place in the 1970s are examined, as is a more recent shift in the major source area of core region net outflow.     

White Residential Segregation in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Conceptual Issues, Patterns, and Trends from the U.S. Census, 1980 to 2010

Racial and ethnic diversity continues to spread to communities across the United States. Rather than focus on the residential patterns of specific minority or immigrant groups, this study examines changing patterns of White residential segregation in metropolitan America. Using data from the 1980 to 2010 decennial censuses, we calculate levels of White segregation using two common measures, analyze the effect of defining the White population in different ways, and, drawing upon the group threat theoretical perspective, we examine the metropolitan correlates of White segregation. We find that White segregation from others declined significantly from 1980 to 2010, regardless of the measure of segregation or the White population used. However, we find some evidence consistent with the group threat perspective, as White dissimilarity is higher in metro areas that are more diverse, and especially those with larger Black populations. Nevertheless, our findings indicate that Whites having been living in increasingly integrated neighborhoods over the last few decades, suggesting some easing of the historical color line.     

Naturalization of U.S. Immigrants: Highlights from Ten Countries

The saga of U.S. immigrant naturalization is merely sketched for about 25 million immigrants entered in three decades of renewed immigration. This study documents naturalization outcomes for immigrants from ten major countries of origin, using administrative records on immigrants and naturalizations. Following the 1978–1987 admission cohorts for the first decade or more of permanent residence, this study finds significant covariate effects on the timing of naturalization by origin, mode of entry, and immigrant visa class, net other influences of demographic and background characteristics. Immigrants from the Philippines, Vietnam, and China naturalized more quickly than immigrants from India, Korea, Cuba, Colombia, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, and Mexico. Those who adjusted from statuses as nonimmigrants, refugees, or asylees became naturalized citizens more quickly. Those immigrants with employment sponsorship naturalized faster than family-sponsored immigrants. Spouses of citizens, spouses of permanent residents, spouses of siblings of citizens, and spouses of sons and daughters of citizens naturalized faster than some other immigrants. Gender was not significant in the multivariate analysis, but further research will more fully explore sex-specific variation in the timing of naturalization given likely variation in women's representation by origin and admission categories.