Modelling peak accelerations from earthquakes

This paper deals with the prediction of peak horizontal accelerations with emphasis on seismic risk and insurance concerns. Non‐linear mixed effects models are used to analyse well‐known earthquake data and the consequences of mis‐specifying assumptions on the error term are quantified. A robust fit of the usual model, using recently developed robust weighted maximum likelihood estimators, is presented. Outlying data are automatically identified and subsequently investigated. A more appropriate model accounting for the extreme value nature of the responses, is also developed and implemented. The implication on acceleration predictions is demonstrated. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

利用COSMIC掩星探测分析120°E经线附近电离层E层闪烁指数变化

利用气象、电离层和气候卫.星联合观测系统COSMIC掩星2007-2013年探测资料,分析了120°E经线附近电离层E层区域(70~140km)闪烁指数的季节、地方时和空间变化.结果表明强电离层闪烁主要集中在磁纬度±30°内,夏季达到最大,冬季其次,春季最小.闪烁峰值大小与太阳辐射有关,但北半球夏冬季闪烁峰值大于南半球观测结果,秋半球闪烁峰值大于春半球观测结果.地磁高纬地区较强闪烁现象出现在地方时傍晚之后,午夜前后达到最大值.地磁中纬和低纬区域日出后即出现较为明显的闪烁现象,一直持续至夜间甚至凌晨,分别约在中午和傍晚前达到最大值.磁赤道区闪烁现象通常始于地方时日出后,最大值发生在傍晚1800LT左右.电离层E区的闪烁峰值大都集中110km高度,但高纬地区的峰值高度略有降低.此外,太阳和地磁活动的增强一定程度上会抑制E层闪烁现象.相关研究结果有利于分析E层不规则结构及物理形成机制,同时为电离层区域闪烁模型的建立提供有用的信息.     

Variability of equatorial ionospheric electron density at fixed heights below the F2 peak

A study on variability of the equatorial ionosphere was carried out at fixed heights below the F2 peak for two different levels of solar activity. The study covered height range of 100 km up to the peak of F2 layer using a real height step increase of 10 km. The variability index used is the percentage ratio of standard deviation over the average value for the month. Daytime minimum variability of between 3% and 10% was observed at height range of about 150–210 km during low solar activity and between 2% and 7% at height range of 160–220 km during high solar activity. The nighttime maximum of between 70% and 187% was observed at height range of about 210–250 km during low solar activity and between 42% and 127% at height range of 210–250 km during high solar activity. The height range at which daytime minimum was observed falls within the F1 height of the ionosphere. The result obtained is consistent with previous works carried out in the low latitude locations for American sector.     

Long-Term Trends in the Critical Frequency of the E-layer

A search for trends k(foE) in the critical frequency of the ionospheric E layer at Juliusruh and Slough stations is performed by the method often used by the authors to analyze trends in the F2-layer parameters. It is found that k(foE) could differ in both magnitude and even sign within different time intervals. However, the k(foE) trends have been stably negative over the last two decades for both stations and all months of the year. The k(foE) values averaged over a year are ?0.012 and ?0.005 MHz per year for Juliusruh and Slough stations, respectively. The method used in the recent paper by La?tovi?ka et al. (2016) to determine foE trends is analyzed, and it is shown that the difference in linear approximation of the dependence of the observed foE values on F10.7 within different time intervals could be interpreted not as the presence of a different foE dependence on the F10.7 index within these intervals but as the presence within them of foE trends that change the slope of the linear approximation.     

Annual and semiannual variations in the ionospheric F2-layer. I. Modelling

Annual, seasonal and semiannual variations of F2-layer electron density (NmF2) and height (hmF2) have been compared with the coupled thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere computational model (CTIP), for geomagnetically quiet conditions. Compared with results from ionosonde data from midlatitudes, CTIP reproduces quite well many observed features of NmF2, such as the dominant winter maxima at high midlatitudes in longitude sectors near the magnetic poles, the equinox maxima in sectors remote from the magnetic poles and at lower latitudes generally, and the form of the month-to-month variations at latitudes between about 60°N and 50°S. CTIP also reproduces the seasonal behaviour of NmF2 at midnight and the summer-winter changes of hmF2. Some features of the F2-layer, not reproduced by the present version of CTIP, are attributed to processes not included in the modelling. Examples are the increased prevalence of the winter maxima of noon NmF2 at higher solar activity, which may be a consequence of the increase of F2-layer loss rate in summer by vibrationally excited molecular nitrogen, and the semiannual variation in hmF2, which may be due to tidal effects. An unexpected feature of the computed distributions of NmF2 is an east-west hemisphere difference, which seems to be linked to the geomagnetic field configuration. Physical discussion is reserved to the companion paper by Rishbeth et al.     

中低纬电离层F层峰高和厚度的变化特征分析

电离层F层参数对电离层空间天气研究与电波传播应用具有重要意义,以往工作主要针对电离层f₀F₂、TEC等参数.本文利用我国中纬地区的兰州、中低纬过渡区的昆明、低纬地区的海口三个观测站的电离层垂直探测数据,分析了电离层峰高h_mF₂、F层虚高h'F和定性表征的厚度h_mF₂-h'F的周日、季节、太阳活动变化特征.研究表明：（1）兰州h_mF₂在太阳活动高年和低年的数值接近,海口在太阳活动高年白天的h_mF₂比低年白天高20~30 km.（2）在海口和昆明,h_mF₂最大值多出现在中午时段,兰州站的最大值出现在夜间.（3）海口的h_mF₂在01-3LT期间出现很强的“午夜衰落”现象,此后迅速增大.（4）利用h_mF₂-h'F来表征电离层的厚度时,其季节和周日变化特征与常用的B₀存在相似之处,但未出现清晨与午后凹陷等现象.这些结果对于提高我国电离层变化特性的认识和模式化研究水平具有重要的科学意义.

     

Comparisons of observed ionospheric F2 peak parameters with IRI-2001 predictions over South Africa

The monthly means of the ionospheric F2 peak parameters (foF2 and hmF2) over three stations in South Africa (Grahamstown, 33.3°S, 26.5°E, Madimbo, 22.4°S, 26.5°E, and Louisvale, 28.5°S, 21.2°E) were analyzed and compared with IRI-2001, using CCIR (Comité Consultatif International des Radio communications) and URSI (Union Radio-Scientifique Internationale coefficients) options. The analysis covers a few selected quiet and disturbed days during various seasons represented by the months of January, April, July and October 2003. IRI-2001 generally overestimates hmF2 for both quiet and disturbed days and it overestimates and underestimates foF2 at different times for all the stations. In general, foF2 is predicted more accurately by IRI-2001 than hmF2, and on average, the CCIR option performed better than the URSI option when predicting both foF2 and hmF2.In general, the model generates good results, although some improvements are still necessary to be implemented in order to obtain better predictions. There are no significant differences in the model predictions of hmF2 and foF2 for quiet and disturbed days.     

极隙区一次长时间ELDI事件的观测研究

E层占优电离层（ELDI）是一种特殊的电离层垂直结构,表现出与偶发Es明显不同的时空分布和形态特征,但其形成机理尚不清楚.本文报道了发生在2001年7月15日的一次长持续时间（~2.3 h）的ELDI事件.地面雷达观测表明,该ELDI事件可以按照电子密度剖面不同的变化特征分为两个阶段.在第1个阶段里,E层密度大幅度增强而F层密度未有明显变化;在第2个阶段里,E层密度回落至正常水平而F层密度强烈耗空.卫星及其他地面设备的协同观测数据表明,高能离子沉降是ELDI第1阶段的主导形成机制,而强等离子体对流是第2阶段的主导机制.

     

Modelling the effects of changes in the Earth's magnetic field from 1957 to 1997 on the ionospheric hmF2 and foF2 parameters

We have modelled the effects of changes in the Earth's magnetic field on the ionosphere as have occurred from 1957 to 1997 using the NCAR Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. Previous studies that attempted to quantify these effects used a constant wind field, so that any electro-dynamical coupling processes could not be accounted for. Using TIE-GCM we can account for these processes. We find substantial changes in the F2 layer peak height hmF2 (up to ±20 km) and critical frequency foF2 (up to ±0.5 MHz) over the Atlantic Ocean and South America, purely due to changes in the Earth's magnetic field (i.e. unrelated to greenhouse gas cooling effects, which are often held responsible for long-term trends in hmf2 and fof2). These would make up a significant contribution to observed long-term trends in these areas and therefore must be taken into account in their interpretation. Modelled trends of hmF2 and foF2 exhibit a strong seasonal and diurnal variation, highlighting the importance of separating data with respect to season and local time. Most of the modelled changes in hmF2 and foF2 can be related to changes in plasma transport up or down magnetic field lines driven by neutral winds, changes, which are mostly caused by changes in the inclination of the field, though changes in declination and neutral wind also play a role. Changes in the vertical component of the E×B drift seem to have little effect on hmF2 and foF2.     

Modelling of rupture planes for peak ground accelerations and its application to the isoseismal map of MMI scale in Indian region

The rupture plane for an earthquake has been modelledby using the semi empirical technique of Midorikawa(1993). This technique estimates ground accelerationby modelling the rupture process during an earthquake.Modifications in this technique have been made for itsapplication to the Indian region. This has been tested forthe Uttarkashi earthquake of 20th Oct, 1991, India, whichwas well recorded at thirteen stations of installedstrong motion array in this region. After testingseveral possible rupture models, a final model has beenselected and peak ground acceleration due to thismodel is simulated at thirteen different stations.Dependency of methodology on model parameters, e.g.dip and mode of rupture propagation have also beenstudied in detail.Using this technique synthetic isoseismal maps wereprepared by converting peak ground acceleration intoMMI scale. Dependency of rupture models on syntheticisoseismals has also been studied in detail. Usingthis method, peak ground acceleration for the Laturearthquake of Sept 30, 1993 has been obtained atvarious places within meisoseismal area. Synthetic andfield intensity was compared at various well-knownsites. Since the region was not covered by anyinstrumental array during Latur earthquake, thesimulated peak ground accelerations are expected toserve basis of design criteria in this region.     

On the long-term change of ionospheric parameters

Independent of the possible sources (solar activity, geomagnetic activity, greenhouse effect, etc.) of a global change in the upper atmosphere, it is the sign of a long-term trend of temperature that might reveal the cause of a global change.Long-term change of temperature in the F region of the ionosphere has been studied and is assumed to be expressed in terms of thickness of the bottomside F2 layer characterized by the difference between height of the maximum electron density of the F2 layer hmF2 and altitude of the lower boundary of the F region represented by h′F. Using the difference of two ionospheric parameters has the advantage that it reduces the effect of changes resulting from alteration of equipment and scaling personnel. In this study, in summer only night values of the difference hmF2−h′F and in winter both day and night values have been taken into account considering that h′F might indicate the lower boundary of the F region in these periods. The study of the behaviour of hmF2−h′F taking separately the stations and determining yearly the mean measure (trend) of the variation of hmF2−h′F with solar and geomagnetic activities found that this difference increases significantly with enhanced solar activity, but trends of the solar activity effect exerted on this difference themselves do not practically change with increasing sunspot number. Further, hmF2−h′F decreases only insignificantly with growing geomagnetic activity. Trends of the geomagnetic activity effect related to hmF2−h′F change only insignificantly with increasing Ap; however, trends of the geomagnetic activity effect decreased with increasing latitude.As a result of this investigation it has been found that hmF2−h′F regarded as thickness of the bottomside F2 layer shows an effect of the change of solar activity during the last three solar cycles, indicating temperature change in the upper atmosphere to be expected on the basis of changing solar activity. Furthermore, though a long-term variation of solar activity considering only years around solar activity minima is relatively small, the difference hmF2−h′F indicates a trend opposing the change of solar activity; that is, it decreases slightly during the first three 20, 21, 22 solar cycle minima (1964–1986), but decreases more abruptly according to the change of solar activity towards the minimum of solar cycle 23 (1986–1996), thus also indicating variation of temperature in the F region. However, this variation cannot be explained by the change of solar and geomagnetic activities alone, but assumes some other source (e.g. greenhouse gases) too.     

利用全球电离层地图分析芦山地震电离层异常变化

近年来,作者们经过长期的分析研究后发现,采用迭代法分析电离层数据时获取的电离层TEC异常与中强地震发生具有较好的空间对应关系,并根据总结的异常特征在地震中长期监测预报方面取得了一定的进展。本文在迭代法分析预报确定异常区域的基础上,采用滑动四分位法对预测区域发生的中强地震前后短时间序列内的电离层TEC数据进行分析,剔除干扰因素后找到较为明显的电离层TEC变化异常。综合利用两种分析方法判断中强地震前后电离层TEC异常,从而为地震前兆研究提供一个新的思路。     

Theoretical developments on the causes of ionospheric outflow

It is now well known that there is a substantial outflow of ionospheric plasma from the terrestrial ionosphere at high latitudes. The outflow consists of light thermal ions (H⁺, He⁺) as well as both light and heavy energized ions (H⁺, He⁺, O⁺, N⁺, NO⁺, O₂⁺, N₂⁺). The thermal ion outflows tend to be associated with the classical polar wind, while the energized ions are probably associated with either auroral energization processes or nonclassical polar wind processes. Part of the problem with identifying the exact cause of a given outflow relates to the fact that the ionosphere continuously convects into and out of the various high-latitude regions (sunlight, cusp, polar cap, nocturnal oval) and the time-constant for outflow is comparable to the convection time. Therefore, it is difficult to separate and quantify the possible outflow mechanisms. Some of these mechanisms are as follows. In sunlit regions, the photoelectrons can heat the thermal electrons and the elevated electron temperature acts to increase the polar wind outflow rate. At high altitudes, the escaping photoelectrons can also accelerate the polar wind as they drag the thermal ions with them. In the cusp and auroral oval, the precipitating magnetospheric electrons can heat the thermal electrons in a manner similar to the photoelectrons. Also, energized ions, in the form of beams and conics, can be created in association with field-aligned auroral currents and potential structures. The cusp ion beams and conics that have been convected into the polar cap can destabilize the polar wind when they pass through it at high altitudes, thereby transferring energy to the thermal ions. Additional energization mechanisms in the polar cap include Joule heating, hot magnetospheric electrons and ions, electromagnetic wave turbulence, and centrifugal acceleration.Some of these causes of ionospheric outflow will be briefly reviewed, with the emphasis on the recent simulations of polar wind dynamics in convecting flux tubes of plasma.     

The spatial structure of the dayside ionospheric trough

Tomographic imaging provides a powerful technique for obtaining images of the spatial distribution of ionospheric electron density at polar latitudes. The method, which involves monitoring radio transmissions from the Navy Navigation Satellite System at a meridional chain of ground receivers, has particular potential for complementing temporal measurements by other observing techniques such as the EISCAT incoherent-scatter radar facility. Tomographic reconstructions are presented here from a two-week campaign in November 1995 that show large-scale structuring of the polar ionosphere. Measurements by the EISCAT radar confirm the authenticity of the technique and provide additional information of the plasma electron and ion temperatures. The dayside trough, persistently observed at high latitudes during a geomagnetically quiet period but migrating to lower latitudes with increasing activity, is discussed in relationship to the pattern of the polarcap convection.     

EISCAT verification in the development of ionospheric tomography

This paper highlights the important role played by the EISCAT radar for verification in the development of tomographic techniques to produce images of ionospheric electron density. A brief review is given of some of the stages in the application of tomographic reconstruction techniques to the ionosphere. Results are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the method in imaging ionospheric structures at high latitudes. In addition, the results include the first tomographic image of the ionosphere for a region extending from mid-latitudes over mainland Scandinavia to high latitudes above Svalbard.     

Application of the method of numerical simulation of ionospheric filtration of Pc1 signals to solving the inverse problem of ionospheric modelling

Summary The numerical method of simulating ionospheric filtration of ULF signals in the range of Pc1 frequencies has been applied to French geomagnetically conjugate observations of ULF signals made by the GEOS-1 satellite and at the observatory of Husafell (Iceland) [2]. The experimentally obtained variable values of the transmissivity of the Pc1 signal through the ionosphere [5] in the course of the micropulsation distrubance of 13.7. 1977 have been compared with the results of the numerical simulation taking into consideration the fundamental physical parameters of the high-latitude external ionosphere. This approximate form of solving the inverse problem of ionospheric modelling yielded quantitative estimates of the rapid variations of the concentration of charged particles in connection with the expected changes of their temperature. It is assumed that nonstationary states of the ionospheric plasma are caused by the very ion-cyclotron waves penetrating the ionosphere at high latitudes ( 70°) along the plasmapause.     

电离层Alfven谐振反馈不稳定性研究

本文利用分层(磁层、电离层、大气层)模型,分析了电离层电导率以及磁场方向对电离层Alfven谐振(简称IAR)反馈不稳定性的影响.结果表明:倾斜磁场可以有效改变IAR的参数(谐振频率与增长率),进而改变IAR反馈不稳定性的性能,磁场方向向上时,在电离层电导率较大且不考虑Hall电导率的情况下,磁场倾斜角的减小有利于电离层不稳定性的形成,电离层Hall电导率可以增大IAR反馈不稳定性的增长率,且对于较大的倾角增长率提升较大.