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1.
Liang ZHAO Yunwen LIU Yihui DING Qingquan LI Wei DONG Xinyong SHEN Wei CHENG Haoxin YAO Ziniu XIAO 《大气科学进展》2023,9(12):2138-2153
暖北极-冷欧亚(WACE)模态的显著增强是近年来北半球冬季气温变化的主要特征。然而,对于WACE的研究,模式与观测的结果仍然存在差异。本文评估了1980-2014年39个CMIP6模式对WACE模态的模拟能力,并讨论了导致模式模拟能力产生差异的关键因素。结果表明,相较于单个模式,多模式集合平均能更好地模拟WACE的空间分布特征。另外,当模式能够/不能很好地模拟欧亚冬季气温的气候态场和标准差场时,通常也能够/不能很好地模拟WACE,其中,对标准差场的模拟能力与对WACE的模拟效果联系更为紧密。这主要是由于模式对巴伦支海-喀拉海(BKS)地区暖异常的范围和强度的模拟能力不同所致。进一步分析表明,在BKS地区模拟的良好表现通常与模式能够较好地模拟乌拉尔阻塞高压(UB)的位置和持续性有关。因为UB引起的偏南风能够将热量输送到BKS地区,造成北极变暖,并加强下游的西风槽,使欧亚大陆中纬度地区降温。因此,对UB的模拟是影响模式模拟WACE的关键。 相似文献
2.
CMIP5多模式对阿留申低压气候特征的模拟检验与预估 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
利用观测的海温资料和海平面气压资料,检验了CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5,CMIP5)多模式对阿留申低压(Aleutian Low,AL)特征指数的时空分布和变化的模拟能力;从AL周期及变化趋势等方面,分析了CMIP5模式预估的未来AL的变化特征。结果表明,CMIP5模式及其集合平均能够很好地模拟AL的环流结构,对AL的气候态有着较强的模拟能力,尤其是模式对于东太平洋海表温度的模拟能力直接影响其对于AL的模拟效果。模式的集合平均对变率强度的模拟偏强,且对于变率的模拟效果逊于对气候态的模拟。22个模式中的16个模式能模拟出AL强度指数的年代际变化周期,对年代际周期有着较好的刻画能力。Historical试验下对于AL的变化趋势存在着较大的不确定性,而相对于两种不同排放情景,随着排放的增加,AL更加偏北,强度增强,年际、年代际周期变得更加显著。在两种排放情景下模式的集合平均以及多数模式模拟出AL有着向北和增强的趋势。 相似文献
3.
Using the coupled ocean-atmosphere Bergen Climate Model,and a Lagrangian vorticity-based cyclone tracking method,the authors investigate current climate summer cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere and their change by the end of the 21st century,with a focus on Northern Eurasia and the Arctic.The two scenarios A1B and A2 for increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are considered.In the model projections,the total number of cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere is reduced by about 3% 4%,but the Arctic Ocean and adjacent coastal re-gions harbour slightly more and slightly stronger summer storms,compared to the model current climate.This in-crease occurs in conjunction with an increase in the high-latitude zonal winds and in the meridional tempera-ture gradient between the warming land and the ocean across Northern Eurasia.Deficiencies in climate model representations of the summer storm tracks at high lati-tudes are also outlined,and the need for further model inter-comparison studies is emphasized. 相似文献
4.
本文对中国参加CMIP5的6个气候模式对未来北极海冰的模拟情况进行了评估。通过与1979-2005年海冰的观测值以及2050年代的多模式集合平均值对比发现,中国的气候模式对海冰范围的模拟结果与CMIP5模式的平均水平存在一定差距,具体表现为：BNU-ESM和FGOALS-s2对当前海冰范围估计很好,但对温度敏感性略偏高;FIO-ESM对当前海冰范围估计很好,但由于海冰对温度的敏感性偏低,导致其模拟的未来海冰在各种RCP情景中都融化缓慢;FGOALS-g2（BCC-CSM1-1和BCC-CSM1-1-m）对当前海冰范围的模拟存在显著偏多（显著偏少）的问题,这导致其对未来海冰融化的估计也持续偏多（偏少）。中国模式对北极海冰的模拟偏差导致它们对极区地表大气温度和湿度的模拟出现偏差,并且这些极区气象要素的偏差会进一步通过动力过程传导到对秋、冬季西风带、极涡的模拟中去。研究表明：从对海冰本身的模拟以及海冰偏差带来的气候影响这两个角度看,BNU-ESM在中国模式中水平较高,但总体上中国6个气候模式在海冰分量的模拟上仍与世界平均水平存在差距,这需要中国各模式中心的持续改进。 相似文献
5.
在全球气候变暖背景下,中国江淮流域梅雨期的气候响应趋于复杂,给江淮流域梅雨期的气候预测带来了更多的不确定因素。研究江淮梅雨期气候对全球变暖的响应,对于认识江淮梅雨变化新趋势、提高新气候背景下的汛期预报及制定防灾减灾政策均有深远意义。采用中国地面气温和降水日值数据集对近几十年来江淮地区梅雨期的气温和降水变化进行了深入分析,基于观测结果,评估了国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）的22个模式结果,并对CMIP5模式预估的21世纪中排放（RCP4.5）和高排放（RCP8.5）情景下中国江淮流域梅雨期的气温和降水变化进行了分析,并对梅雨期气候变化的机理进行了探讨。研究结果表明,在全球变暖背景下,江淮地区梅雨期气候亦发生了相应的变化,气温呈现出显著的升高趋势,降水亦发生了相应调整,在较暖年降水偏多,较冷年降水偏少。在未来全球进一步变暖的背景下,江淮地区梅雨期平均气温进一步升高,降水进一步增多,且随着排放量的增加,降水的空间分布不均匀性也在加剧。 相似文献
6.
The simulated Arctic sea ice drift and its relationship with the near-surface wind and surface ocean current during 1979-2014 in nine models from China that participated in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)are examined by comparison with observational and reanalysis datasets.Most of the models reasonably represent the Beaufort Gyre(BG)and Transpolar Drift Stream(TDS)in the spatial patterns of their long-term mean sea ice drift,while the detailed location,extent,and strength of the BG and TDS vary among the models.About two-thirds of the models agree with the observation/reanalysis in the sense that the sea ice drift pattern is consistent with the near-surface wind pattern.About the same proportion of models shows that the sea ice drift pattern is consistent with the surface ocean current pattern.In the observation/reanalysis,however,the sea ice drift pattern does not match well with the surface ocean current pattern.All nine models missed the observational widespread sea ice drift speed acceleration across the Arctic.For the Arctic basin-wide spatial average,five of the nine models overestimate the Arctic long-term(1979-2014)mean sea ice drift speed in all months.Only FGOALS-g3 captures a significant sea ice drift speed increase from 1979 to 2014 both in spring and autumn.The increases are weaker than those in the observation.This evaluation helps assess the performance of the Arctic sea ice drift simulations in these CMIP6 models from China. 相似文献
7.
Using the World Meteorological Organization definition and a threshold-based classification technique,simulations of vortex displacement and split sudden stratospheric warmings(SSWs)are evaluated for four Chinese models(BCC-CSM2-MR,FGOALS-f3-L,FGOALS-g3,and NESM3)from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)with the Japanese 55-year reanalysis(JRA-55)as a baseline.Compared with six or seven SSWs in a decade in JRA-55,three models underestimate the SSW frequency by~50%,while NESM3 doubles the SSW frequency.SSWs mainly appear in midwinter in JRA-55,but one-month climate drift is simulated in the models.The composite of splits is stronger than displacements in both the reanalysis and most models due to the longer pulse of positive eddy heat flux before onset of split SSWs.A wavenumber-1-like temperature anomaly pattern(cold Eurasia,warm North America)before onset of displacement SSWs is simulated,but cold anomalies are mainly confined to North America after displacement SSWs.Although the lower tropospheric temperature also displays a wavenumber-1-like pattern before split SSWs,most parts of Eurasia and North America are covered by cold anomalies after split SSWs in JRA-55.The models have different degrees of fidelity for the temperature anomaly pattern before split SSWs,but the wavenumber-2-like temperature anomaly pattern is well simulated after split SSWs.The center of the negative height anomalies in the Pacific sector before SSWs is sensitive to the SSW type in both JRA-55 and the models.A negative North Atlantic Oscillation is simulated after both types of SSWs in the models,although it is only observed for split SSWs. 相似文献
8.
东亚高空急流(简称急流)对夏季东亚地区的天气和气候有着重要影响.本文利用CMIP5的历史气候模拟试验和RCP8.5路径下的未来气候变化预估试验数据,预估了急流在6个全球变暖阈值(1.5℃,2.0℃,2.5℃,3.0℃,3.5℃和4.0℃)下相对于当代气候的变化情况.结果 表明东亚高空西风在1.5℃阈值下略微减弱.在2.... 相似文献
9.
Snow depth over sea ice is an essential variable for understanding the Arctic energy budget.In this study,we evaluate snow depth over Arctic sea ice during 1993-2014 simulated by 31 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6)against recent satellite retrievals.The CMIP6 models capture some aspects of the observed snow depth climatology and variability.The observed variability lies in the middle of the models’simulations.All the models show negative trends of snow depth during 1993-2014.However,substantial spatiotemporal discrepancies are identified.Compared to the observation,most models have late seasonal maximum snow depth(by two months),remarkably thinner snow for the seasonal minimum,an incorrect transition from the growth to decay period,and a greatly underestimated interannual variability and thinning trend of snow depth over areas with frequent occurrence of multi-year sea ice.Most models are unable to reproduce the observed snow depth gradient from the Canadian Arctic to the outer areas and the largest thinning rate in the central Arctic.Future projections suggest that snow depth in the Arctic will continue to decrease from 2015 to 2099.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the Arctic will be almost snow-free during the summer and fall and the accumulation of snow starts from January.Further investigation into the possible causes of the issues for the simulated snow depth by some models based on the same family of models suggests that resolution,the inclusion of a hightop atmospheric model,and biogeochemistry processes are important factors for snow depth simulation. 相似文献
10.
本文采用17个CMIP6模式和弱温度梯度假设,分析了在SSP5-8.5情景下21世纪末北半球夏季季内振荡(BSISO)活动的变化。结果表明,季节内的变化显示出更加结构化的特征。与BSISO相关的降水异常活动表现出更大的纬向尺度,并进一步向北传播。然而,各模式间对BSISO向东和向北的传播速度以及各个相位的活动频率的变化没有达成广泛的一致。在西北太平洋地区,由于单位显热下BSISO的垂直水汽输送效率显著增加,降水方差显著增加。而在对流层中部,由于平均状态静态稳定性显著增加,垂直速度方差显著减小。低层纬向风变化较为复杂,在西北-东南方向上明显增加,其他区域则相反。这可能是由于全球变暖下BSISO信号向东北方向移动和BSISO垂直速度方差减小的共同影响。 本文还进一步比较了西北太平洋上强和普通BSISO事件的变化。它们在降水和大尺度环流异常上表现出相同的变化,而在垂直速度异常上表现出相反的变化。这可能是因为强(普通)事件的降水异常的变化速率比平均状态静态稳定性的变化速率大(小)得多,从而导致垂直运动增强(减少)。 相似文献
11.
To meet the low warming targets proposed in the 2015 Paris Agreement,substantial reduction in carbon emissions is needed in the future.It is important to know how surface climates respond under low warming targets.The present study investigates the surface temperature changes under the low-forcing scenario of Representative Concentration Pathways(RCP2.6)and its updated version(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSP1-2.6)by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALS)models participating in phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6,respectively).In both scenarios,radiative forcing(RF)first increases to a peak of 3 W m^?2 around 2045 and then decreases to 2.6 W m^?2 by 2100.Global mean surface air temperature rises in all FGOALS models when RF increases(RF increasing stage)and declines or holds nearly constant when RF decreases(RF decreasing stage).The surface temperature change is distinct in its sign and magnitude between the RF increasing and decreasing stages over the land,Arctic,North Atlantic subpolar region,and Southern Ocean.Besides,the regional surface temperature change pattern displays pronounced model-to-model spread during both the RF increasing and decreasing stages,mainly due to large intermodel differences in climatological surface temperature,ice-albedo feedback,natural variability,and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation change.The pattern of tropical precipitation change is generally anchored by the spatial variations of relative surface temperature change(deviations from the tropical mean value)in the FGOALS models.Moreover,the projected changes in the updated FGOALS models are closer to the multi-model ensemble mean results than their predecessors,suggesting that there are noticeable improvements in the future projections of FGOALS models from CMIP5 to CMIP6. 相似文献
12.
利用24个CMIP6全球气候模式的逐日降水模拟资料,基于广义极值分布(GEV)模型,研究了全球增暖1.5/2℃下我国20、50和100 a重现期极端降水的未来风险变化。可以发现,相对于历史时期(1995—2014年),全球升温1.5和2℃下极端降水发生概率风险空间分布相近,总体上呈现增加趋势,但额外增暖0.5℃将导致更高的风险。如50 a重现期极端降水,在增暖1.5/2℃下其重现期将分别变为17/14 a,极端降水将变得更加频繁。不同区域对气候变暖的响应存在区域差异,其中中国西部长江黄河中上游和青藏高原地区、中国东部长江黄河中下游及其以南地区,极端降水发生概率比达到3以上,局部更是达到5以上,为我国极端降水气候变化响应高敏感区域。进一步,基于概率分布函数从理论角度探讨了位置和尺度参数对发生概率风险的影响与贡献度量,并用于探讨极端降水气候平均态和变率变化对极端降水发生风险的影响,结果显示：位置和尺度参数的增量变化、风险变化率存在着显著的东西部差异,从而导致极端降水发生风险的影响因素存在差异。如中国西部尽管极端降水气候平均态和变率变化幅度不大,但因风险变化率较高,从而导致该区域的发生风险大... 相似文献
13.
The complexity of the tropical climate system demands the development of a hierarchy of models to ensure our understanding of its response to anthropogenic forcing. The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to radiative forcing has been studied previously with a box model. The model has provided insights into the tropical Pacific climate change that are otherwise not easily attainable. But that model only encompasses the tropical Pacific region. Recent studies have also shown that the Indian Ocean (IO) may be important in the response of the Pacific Walker circulation to radiative forcing, raising the need to expand the model to take into account the role of IO. This study presents the results concerning the tropical Pacific response to radiative forcing from an expanded-box model that includes the tropical IO, which influences the tropical Pacific through an inter-basin SST gradient.The three-box model predicts an enhanced zonal SST gradient in tropical Pacific in response to the increased radiative forcing, similar to the previous two-box model. It is further noted that in the three-box model, a warmer IO relative to the Pacific enhances Pacific easterlies and subsequently strengthens the equatorial ocean circulation. Because of this ocean dynamical cooling, the warming response in the Pacific is effectively reduced in the three-box model that includes the role of IO compared with that in the two-box model. The role of the IO warming trend in enhancing the Pacific trade winds is confirmed using an atmospheric general circulation model experiment. These results may help to fully explain the relatively small observed warming trend in the tropical Pacific compared to that in the tropical IO evident in 20th century SST reconstructions. 相似文献
14.
2000年后全球气温的增温率显著下降,全球进入变暖减缓期.本文基于CRU(Climatic Research Unit) 观测资料,分析讨论了2000年后全球及欧亚中高纬度地区全球变暖的减缓特征,评估了CMIP5(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5)试验多模式对全球变暖减缓的模拟及未来气温变化预估.结果表明,2000年后全球陆地平均地面气温的增温率大幅下降至0.14℃ (10 a)-1,仅为1976~1999年加速期增温率的一半.全球陆地13个区域中有9个地区的增温率小于2000年前,4个地区甚至出现了降温.其中以欧亚中高纬地区最为特殊.加速期(1976~1999年)增温率达到0.50℃ (10 a)-1,为全球陆地最大,2000年后陡降至-0.17℃ (10 a)-1,为全球最强降温区,为全球变暖的减缓贡献了49.13%.并且具有显著的季节依赖,减缓期冬季增温率下降了-2.68℃ (10 a)-1,而秋季升高了0.86℃ (10 a)-1,呈现反位相变化特征.CMIP5多模式计划中仅BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下和MRI-ESM1模式在RCP8.5下的模拟较好地预估了全球及欧亚中高纬地区在2000年后增温率的下降以及欧亚中高纬秋、冬温度的反位相变化特征.BCC-CSM1.1在RCP2.6情景下预估欧亚中高纬地区2012年后温度距平保持在1.2℃左右,2020年后跃至2℃附近振荡.而MRI-ESM1在RCP8.5情景下预估的欧亚中高纬度温度在2030年前一直维持几乎为零的增温率,之后迅速升高. 相似文献
15.
Rui WANG;Fei ZHENG;Hao WANG 《大气科学进展》2025,42(8):1533-1547
南极半岛是地球上升温最快的区域之一,其冬季的温度变化与南半球热带外海气相互作用过程密切相关。近年研究表明,澳大利亚以东的塔斯曼海海表温度(SST)异常可激发类似太平洋－南美洲型的大气遥相关波列进而影响AP冬季的气候,但目前鲜有研究系统性地评估气候模式对这一关键海气过程的模拟。基于此,本研究利用CMIP6的历史试验(historical, 1850–2014)数据,首次从长期视角揭示了气候模式在刻画塔斯曼海-南极半岛遥相关中的表现。通过对比CMIP6多模式集合与再分析数据的结果,研究发现CMIP6能较好地刻画出由冬季塔斯曼海SST异常激发的类似太平洋－南美洲型的遥相关型,但不同模式之间的结果存在偏差。进一步分析指出,模式模拟的不确定性可部分归因于不同模式中大气对海温异常响应的差异,而模式的网格分辨率可以影响模式中的海气的动力和热力交换,进而影响模式对遥相关过程的刻画。此外,CMIP6模式普遍对南极半岛气温年际变率的模拟偏大,而对塔斯曼海SST年际变率的模拟偏小,这导致模式中大气对SST异常的响应被过度放大。塔斯曼海SST异常还可能通过调制大气环流,影响南极海冰的偶极子型分布,但可能由于20世纪中叶以前南半球气象观测数据不足,这一过程在20世纪再分析数据(20CRv3)中未被清晰呈现。尽管CMIP6模式整体较好地刻画了与塔斯曼海SST有关的大气遥相关过程,但模式间模拟不确定性的来源仍需深入探讨。同时,如何区分塔斯曼海信号与其他气候驱动变率(如厄尔尼诺)的作用,以及遥相关过程是否具有季节依赖性,亟需进一步的研究。本研究不仅对于评估现有气候模式对南半球气候系统关键过程的模拟能力、增强人们对南极地区气候变化的理解具有重要意义,也为人们预测南半球未来气候变化、改进气候模式模拟能力提供了科学支撑。 相似文献
16.
结合NCEP再分析资料,评估了28个参加第五次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的耦合模式对1950-2000年冬、春季北极涛动（AO）变率的模拟能力,并与CMIP3模式模拟结果进行了对比。结果表明,尽管CMIP5模式没能模拟出冬、春季AO指数前30年处于显著的负位相期而后20年处于显著的正位相期的特征,但是基本能够模拟出冬、春季AO指数1950-2000年显著的增强趋势以及振荡周期,多模式集合改进了模拟效果。同样,CMIP3模式没能模拟出冬、春季AO指数前30年处于显著的负位相而后20年处于显著的正位相的特征,而且1950-2000年冬、春季AO指数的增强趋势在CMIP3模式模拟结果中也没有表现出来,多模式集合没有改进模式模拟效果。不仅如此,CMIP3模式对AO指数的长期变化周期模拟不好,只是模拟出了冬季周期为2～3 a的振荡,没有模拟出春季AO指数的4～5 a振荡周期。尽管CMIP5模式对冬、春季AO指数的模拟能力还不够理想,没有完全模拟出AO指数的变化特征,但是相对于CMIP3模式,无论是对AO指数变化趋势的模拟还是对其变化周期的模拟,CMIP5模式都有所提高。 相似文献
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全球季风模式比较计划（GMMIP）是第六次国际耦合模式比较计划（CMIP6）的重要组成部分。文中首先介绍了GMMIP发起的科学背景,指出发起GMMIP的必要性和历史机遇。进一步扼要描述了GMMIP试验设计的总体思路和方案、试验的用途以及与CMIP6其他模式比较子计划的相关性。最后对GMMIP的科学意义进行了评述,指出其在提升和扩大中国季风模拟和研究领域国际影响力方面的重要作用。 相似文献
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Xiangdong ZHANG Yunfei FU Zhe HAN James E.OVERLAND Annette RINKE Han TANG Timo VIHMA Muyin WANG 《大气科学进展》2022,39(4):553-565
Three striking and impactful extreme cold weather events successively occurred across East Asia and North America during the mid-winter of 2020/21.These events open a new window to detect possible underlying physical processes.The analysis here indicates that the occurrences of the three events resulted from integrated effects of a concurrence of anomalous thermal conditions in three oceans and interactive Arctic-lower latitude atmospheric circulation processes,which were linked and influenced by one major sudden stratospheric warming(SSW).The North Atlantic warm blob initiated an increased poleward transient eddy heat flux,reducing the Barents-Kara seas sea ice over a warmed ocean and disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)to induce the major SSW.The Rossby wave trains excited by the North Atlantic warm blob and the tropical Pacific La Nina interacted with the Arctic tropospheric circulation anomalies or the tropospheric polar vortex to provide dynamic settings,steering cold polar air outbreaks.The long memory of the retreated sea ice with the underlying warm ocean and the amplified tropospheric blocking highs from the midlatitudes to the Arctic intermittently fueled the increased transient eddy heat flux to sustain the SSW over a long time period.The displaced or split SPV centers associated with the SSW played crucial roles in substantially intensifying the tropospheric circulation anomalies and moving the jet stream to the far south to cause cold air outbreaks to a rarely observed extreme state.The results have significant implications for increasing prediction skill and improving policy decision making to enhance resilience in“One Health,One Future”. 相似文献
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本文利用参与第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)的高分辨率气候模式CNRM-CM6-1-HR资料,对北太平洋中纬度海洋锋强度与冬季风暴轴的关系开展模拟和预估。研究发现,该模式能够较好地再现海洋锋强度与风暴轴的正相关关系,即当海洋锋加强(减弱)时,风暴轴在其主体及下游区域显著增强(削弱),但模拟的正相关关系在风暴轴北部强于观测,这是由于模拟的海洋锋强度与低层大气斜压性的正相关关系在其北部偏强。对比模式在历史试验和未来4种共享社会经济路径(SSPs)下的模拟结果发现,全球变暖背景下,海洋锋强度与风暴轴依然存在显著的正相关关系,但在风暴轴气候态大值区及其北部区域呈现减弱趋势,正相关关系减弱程度在高辐射强迫情景(SSP5-8.5)下最大,在中等至高辐射强迫情景(SSP3-7.0)下最小。进一步研究发现,未来海洋锋强度与低层大气斜压性的正相关关系呈现出类似的减弱趋势,说明未来海洋锋与风暴轴关系的变化主要取决于海洋锋与低层大气斜压性关系的变化。 相似文献
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CMIP5模式对未来升温情景下全球陆地生态系统净初级生产力变化的预估 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
针对《巴黎协定》提出的温控目标,利用耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）模式在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下的模拟结果,初步分析了全球升温情景下陆地生态系统净初级生产力（NPP）相对于参考时段（1986—2005年）的变化,重点分析了1.5℃和2℃升温时NPP相对于参考时段的变化量,并探讨了大气CO2浓度、气温、降水和辐射的变化及其对NPP变化的影响。CMIP5基于各典型浓度路径模拟的全球陆地生态系统NPP均呈增加趋势,且NPP增加量与升温幅度成正比。在相同的升温幅度下,基于各典型浓度路径模拟的各环境因子和NPP的变化量较为一致。陆地生态系统NPP总量增加主要由大气CO2浓度上升驱动,其他环境因子的影响相对较弱。中国东南部、非洲中部、美国东南部和亚马孙雨林西部地区NPP增加最明显。NPP变化量的空间格局主要由大气CO2浓度增加和升温控制,降水和辐射的影响相对较小。具体而言,大气CO2浓度上升对中低纬度的NPP变化贡献最大,对北方高纬度地区NPP变化贡献较小。温度上升有利于促进北方高纬度地区和青藏高原地区NPP,但对中低纬度地区的NPP有较强的抑制作用。鉴于既有典型浓度路径和地球系统模型的限制,本文对未来升温情景下陆地生态系统NPP的预估仍存在较大的不确定性,需要在未来的研究中进一步改进。 相似文献
