ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCES ON THE CHANGE OF HISTORICAL FARMLAND USE IN SHANDONG PROVINCE DURING THE QING DYNASTY （1644-1911）

How land-cover has been changed by human use over the last 300 years is one of the five overarching questions guiding the Land-use/Cover Change (LUCC) Science/Research Plan. China has variety of historical docu-ments providing unique data superiority. So the characteristics of farmland area in Shandong Province during the Qing Dynasty (1644-1911) are summarized firstly: 1) the rising trend of farmland area was striking; 2) farmland area had re-markable fluctuation; 3) farmland area per capita decreased dramatically; 4) wasteland reclamation index increased rapidly. Then, the driving forces of farmland area change are analyzed. It is concluded that natural and human factors are jointly influential. Among the driving forces, human dimensions are the main factors of farmland area change,which direct the general tendency of the changes mentioned above. And the natural factors influence the stability of farmland area as well. Variation of the natural factors would act as the major contributory factor to farmland area change during years or periods of abrupt climatic changes, or during the intensive occurring periods of natural hazards.Besides, the passive aspects of human factors, such as war chaos also influenced the fluctuation of the farmland area.This research indicates that it is feasible to study the land-use/cover change by Chinese historical literatures, which has huge potential to provide a comprehensive picture of the growing dominance of human land-use and land-cover pat-terns that can be used in many global change research oroiects.     

LAND USE／COVER CHANGE AND DRIVING FORCES IN SOUTHERN LIAONING PROVINCE SINCE 1950S

1IN TR O D U CTIO N Land isthemost essentiaplhysicalresource asnd mate- rialbasisforpeople'slif e(LIU,1996).Land use/cover change(LUCC ) isa key aspectofglobalenvironment change, andindicatetsheinfluencoefhuman activiti on physicaelnvironment.As we allkno…     

三江平原萝北县湿地农田化过程与驱动机制分析

通过获取三江平原萝北县自1954年以来的六期土地利用数据,定量分析了过去50余年湿地农田化过程,并从自然因素和人为因素两方面探讨了湿地农田化过程的驱动机制。结果表明,1954-2005年,三江平原萝北县耕地面积净增21.85×10⁴hm²,湿地是新增耕地的主要来源。在空间上,湿地斑块越来越分散,景观破碎化程度明显加剧,而耕地斑块则趋于集中分布;目前,耕地已成为三江平原萝北县的基质景观,地势低平、坡度较小、土壤条件、地貌条件良好的平原区是湿地农田化的首选区域。随着可开垦湿地资源的减少,人类的开垦对象开始转向地势、土壤、地貌等条件相对较差的湿地景观单元。气候变暖加速了湿地农田化进程,而人口数量的增加和政策的引导作用,对湿地农田化过程具有重要的影响。     

FARMLAND AND URBAN AREA DYNAMICS MONITORING INCHINA USING REMOTE SENSING AND SPATIALSTATISTICS METHODOLOGY

1 INTRODUCTIONGlobal change research involves much geo-objectsand geo-process, such as climate and environmentalchange, substance and energy cycling, land-use/land-cover change (LUCC), interactivity between human and nature, etc.. So it need cooperation frommany research communities including international research programs groups such as IGBP (InternationalGeosphere-Biosphere Programme IPCC (Intergovemmental Panel on Climate Change), IHDP (InternationalHuman Dimension Program o…     

Spatio-temporal pattern of net primary productivity in Hengduan Mountains area,China: impacts of climate change and human activities

Net primary productivity(NPP), a metric used to define and identify changes in plant communities, is greatly affected by climate change, human activities and other factors. Here, we used the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach(CASA) model to estimate the NPP of plant communities in Hengduan Mountains area of China, and to explore the relationship between NPP and altitude in this region. We examined the mechanisms underlying vegetation growth responses to climate change and quantitatively assessed the effects of ecological protection measures by partitioning the contributions of climate change and human activities to NPP changes. The results demonstrated that: 1) the average total and annual NPP values over the years were 209.15 Tg C and 468.06 g C/(m2·yr), respectively. Their trend increasingly fluctuated, with spatial distribution strongly linked to altitude(i.e., lower and higher NPP in high altitude and low altitude areas, respectively) and 2400 m represented the marginal altitude for vegetation differentiation; 2) areas where climate was the main factor affecting NPP accounted for 18.2% of the total research area, whereas human activities were the primary factor influencing NPP in 81.8% of the total research area, which indicated that human activity was the main force driving changes in NPP. Areas where climatic factors(i.e., temperature and precipitation) were the main driving factors occupied 13.6%(temperature) and 6.0%(precipitation) of the total research area, respectively. Therefore, the effect of temperature on NPP changes was stronger than that of precipitation; and 3) the majority of NPP residuals from 2001 to 2014 were positive, with human activities playing an active role in determining regional vegetation growth, possibly due to the return of farmland back to forest and natural forest protection. However, this positive trend is decreasing. This clearly shows the periodical nature of ecological projects and a lack of long-term effectiveness.     

Human driving mechanism of regional land use change: A case study of Karst Mountain areas of southwestern China

1INTRODUCTIONAstheadvancingofthestudyonhumandimensionofglobalenvironmentalchange,thechangeoflanduseisbecomingoneoftheresearchfocuses(IGBP/HDP,1993;IGBP/HDP,1995).Landusechange,combiningwithlandcoverchange,reflectstheinterdependenceofhumanandnature.Whilethestudyonlanduse/coverchangetouchesuponalotofquestion,thedrivingforceanditsdrivingmechanismaretwoofthekeyissues(IGBP/HDP,1995).Inthemeantime,theyarethenecessarybasisofdiscussingandforecastingquantitativelylanduse/coverchangebym…     

Land use changes in Northeast China driven by human activities and climatic variation

Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this paper we conducted the study of land use change in Northeast China, one of the most important agricultural zones of the nation. From 1986 to 2000, according to the study results obtained from Landsat images, widespread changes in land use/cover took place in the study area. Grassland, marsh, water body and woodland decreased by 9864, 3973, 1367 and 10,052km², respectively. By comparison, paddy field, dry farmland, and built-up land expanded by 7339, 17193 and 700km², respectively. Those changes bore an interactive relationship with the environment, especially climate change. On the one hand, climate warming created a potential environment for grassland and marsh to be changed to farmland as more crops could thrive in the warmer climate, and for dry farmland to paddy field. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. Those changes, in turn, have adversely influenced the local environment by accelerating land degradation. In terms of socio-economic driving forces, population augment, regional economic development, and national and provincial policies were confirmed as main driving factors for land use change. Foundation item: Under the auspices of the Knowledge Innovation Programs of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-YW-341), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40871187, 40801208)     

Driving forces and their effects on water conservation services in forest ecosystems in China

Identifying the driving forces that cause changes in forest ecosystem services related to water conservation is essential for the design of interventions that could enhance positive impacts as well as minimizing negative impacts. In this study, we propose an assessment concept framework model for indirect-direct-ecosystem service (IN-DI-ESS) driving forces within this context and method for index construction that considers the selection of a robust and parsimonious variable set. Factor analysis was integrated into two-stage data envelopment analysis (TS-DEA) to determine the driving forces and their effects on water conservation services in forest ecosystems at the provincial scale in China. The results showed the following. 1) Ten indicators with factor scores more than 0.8 were selected as the minimum data set. Four indicators comprising population density, per capita gross domestic product, irrigation efficiency, and per capita food consumption were the indirect driving factors, and six indicators comprising precipitation, farmland into forestry or pasture, forest cover, habitat area, water footprint, and wood extraction were the direct driving forces. 2) Spearman’s rank correlation test was performed to compare the overall effectiveness in two periods: stage 1 and stage 2. The calculated coefficients were 0.245, 0.136, and 0.579, respectively, whereas the tabulated value was 0.562. This indicates that the driving forces obviously differed in terms of their contribution to the overall effectiveness and they caused changes in water conservation services in different stages. In terms of the variations in different driving force effects in the years 2000 and 2010, the overall, stage 1, and stage 2 variances were 0.020, 0.065, and 0.079 in 2000, respectively, and 0.018, 0.063, and 0.071 in 2010. This also indicates that heterogeneous driving force effects were obvious in the process during the same period. Identifying the driving forces that affect service changes and evaluating their efficiency have significant policy implications for the management of forest ecosystem services. Advanced effectiveness measures for weak regions could be improved in an appropriate manner. In this study, we showed that factor analysis coupled with TS-DEA based on the IN-DI-ESS framework can increase the parsimony of driving force indicators, as well as interpreting the interactions among indirect and direct driving forces with forest ecosystem water conservation services, and reducing the uncertainty related to the internal consistency during data selection.     

Dynamic Changes in the Wetland Landscape Pattern of the Yellow River Delta from 1976 to 2016 Based on Satellite Data

The Yellow River Delta wetland is the youngest wetland ecosystem in China's warm temperate zone. To better understand how its landscape pattern has changed over time and the underlying factors responsible, this study analyzed the dynamic changes of wetlands using five Landsat series of images, namely MSS(Mulri Spectral Scanner), TM(Thematic Mapper), and OLI(Operational Land Imager) sensors in 1976, 1986, 1996, 2006, and 2016. Object-oriented classification and the combination of spatial and spectral features and both the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and Normalized Difference Water Index(NDWI), as well as brightness characteristic indices, were used to classify the images in eCognition software. Landscape pattern changes in the Yellow River Delta over the past 40 years were then delineated using transition matrix and landscape index methods. Results show that: 1) from1976 to 2016, the total area of wetlands in the study area decreased from 2594.76 to 2491.79 km~2, while that of natural wetlands decreased by 954.03 km~2 whereas human-made wetlands increased by 851.06 km~2. 2) The transformation of natural wetlands was extensive: 31.34% of those covered by Suaeda heteropteras were transformed into reservoirs and ponds, and 24.71% with Phragmites australis coverage were transformed into dry farmland. Some human-made wetlands were transformed into non-wetlands types: 1.55% of reservoirs and ponds became construction land, and likewise 21.27% were transformed into dry farmland. 3) From 1976 to 2016, as the intensity of human activities increased, the number of landscape types in the study area continuously increased. Patches were scattered and more fragmented. The whole landscape became more complex. In short, over the past 40 years, the wetlands of the Yellow River Delta have been degraded, with the area of natural wetlands substantially reduced. Human activities were the dominant forces driving these changes in the Yellow River Delta.     

Land use and land cover change within the Koshi River Basin of the central Himalayas since 1990

Land change is a cause and consequence of global environmental change.Land use and land cover have changed considerably due to increasing human activities and climate change,which has become the core issue of major international research projects.This study interprets land use and land cover status and the changes within the Koshi River Basin(KRB)using Landsat remote sensing(RS)image data,and employs logistic regression model to analyze the influence of natural and socioeconomic driving forces on major land cover changes.The results showed that the areas of built-up land,bare land and forest in KRB increased from 1990 to 2015,including the largest increases in forest and the highest growth rate in construction land.Areas of glacier,grassland,sparse vegetation,shrub land,cropland,and wetland all decreased over the study period.From the perspective of driving analysis,the role of human activities in land use and land cover change is significant than climate factors.Cropland expansion is the reclamation of cropland by farmers,mainly from early deforestation.However,labor force separation,geological disasters and drought are the main factors of cropland shrinkage.The increase of forest area in India and Nepal was attributed to the government’s forest protection policies,such as Nepal’s community forestry has achieved remarkable results.The expansion and contraction of grassland were both dominated by climatic factors.The probability of grassland expansion increases with temperature and precipitation,while the probability of grassland contraction decreases with temperature and precipitation.     

福州土地利用变化及其驱动力多元综合分析

运用地球信息技术对福州土地利用变化特征和驱动力进行了深入分析。主要以TM数据作为信息源获取两时相土地利用状况及其变化信息:用GPS快速提供变化区准确的空间位置信息和野外调查时的快速定位;并利用GIS对多种数据进行处理、集成管理、空间统计和相关分析;对土地利用变化驱动力进一步研究。     

Rocky land desertification and its driving forces in the karst areas of rural Guangxi,Southwest China

With a subtropical climate, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region has a typical karst landscape. Rocky desertification has become a serious environmental issue due to its high vulnerability caused by the joint effect of natural settings and human activities, because of which its eco- environment has been deteriorated in recent years, and farmland has been disappearing sharply at the same time. This, in turn, has exacerbated the poverty level in the rural areas of the region. In this study, we monitored the spatial distribution of rocky land desertification and its temporal evolution using Landsat TM/ETM images of 1985, 1995, 2000 and 2005. We also analyzed the driving forces of the desertification and its expansion. Through constructing regression models by using all the relevant variables and considering the lagged effects as well as fixed effects, we quantified the exact role of different factors causing rocky land desertification in the study area with some new findings. The new findings in this study are greatly helpful for preserving, restoring and reconstructing the degraded mountain environment in Guangxi and other karst areas in Southwest China, and also for alleviating poverty in the rural areas in the future.     

近30年刘家峡以下黄河上游河道湿地演变规律与驱动力分析

河道湿地是流域生态系统中,位于水陆交错地带,关联陆地生态系统和水生生态系统的桥梁和纽带,对蓄水滞洪、净化水质和水土保持,以下维持生物多样性和生态平衡起重要的作用。本文采用1986、1996、2000、2006和2015年5期Landsat遥感影像数据对刘家峡以下黄河上游湿地进行湿地解译提取,并利用空间统计分析法、转移矩阵法和质心位置变化法对刘家峡以下黄河上游河段河道湿地演变规律以及驱动力因素进行研究。结果表明,1986-2015年,黄河上游河道湿地面积从17.3万hm²逐渐减少到12.2万hm²,减少了29.0%。研究区土地利用类型的转移主要发生在河流、裸滩、草本湿地与耕地的相互转化上。过去30年嫩滩湿地的变化幅度远大于老滩湿地,嫩滩湿地面积从1986年的15.46万hm²减少到2015年的10.41万hm²,减少了32.7%,嫩滩湿地演变规律为天生湿地型之间的相互演变,即河流-裸滩-沼泽湿地。而老滩湿地面积基本处在稳定状态,面积范围在1.84~2.28万hm²之间,具有天然湿地-人工湿地与天然湿地-农业用地的演变规律特征。水渠湿地、坑塘湿地和森林湿地质心位置变化较为突出,由单一类型动态度分析可知,研究区自然湿地萎缩、城镇化加速、河流水面面积减少加快。以上分析结果与研究区气温、水利水电工程、灌溉用水、凌汛期冰情以及城镇化程度均有关,与降雨量无明确关系。     

新疆吐鲁番地区土遗址及其环境变化空间信息分析

新疆吐鲁番地区的土遗址数量较多,且具有重要历史文化价值,故对土遗址及其环境的时空变化研究具有重要意义。目前,对大型土遗址的发现保护多利用考古、实地调查和空间信息技术等方法。鉴此,本文分析了吐鲁番地区土遗址及其内外部环境的变化。研究结果表明,20世纪60年代至2010年间该区域土遗址本体及其内部环境发生了较大变化,其主要影响因素是病害发育和人为破坏。病害主要为裂隙与坍塌、风害、酥碱病害、水蚀、表层剥落、生物病害等,其中,普遍的病害是裂隙与坍塌和风害。1990-2010年,研究区土遗址外部地表环境发生了较大变化,耕地和居民地明显增加,草地和未利用地明显减少,尤其是交河故城和高昌故城这2个世界文化遗产区域发生的变化更明显。土遗址周围的人类活动强度在增加,绿洲内部土遗址的外部环境较绿洲边缘或外部更加剧烈;内部的土遗址更容易受到人类活动的影响,而外部环境变化的主要影响因素是人类的耕地和居民地开发活动。     

ANALYSIS ON LAND—USE CHANGE AND SOCIO—ECONOMIC DRIVING FACTOS IN HAINAN ISLAD DURING 50 YEARS FROM 1950 TO 1999

Land-use change is an important part of global change research( IGBP,1990-1992).But the majority of researches focus on the natural driving force of land use change.In this paper,the authors studied the relationship be-tween socio-economic driving factors and land-use change with time series in Hainan Island.Based on the study for the evolution of administrative system and policies in Hainan Island and the comprehensive analysis on the social economy da-ta and changes of social policies,the socio-economic pooicies,human activities and land use of Hainan can be divided into three periods with different characters:period from 1950 to 1978 characterized by the planning economic system,peri-od from 1978 to 1988 characterized by the transfer of economic system and adoption of open policy,new stage from 1988 to 1998 with high growing speed .On the other hand the authors describe the character of the periods and land-use change process affected by socio-economic afctors.This paper provides an important method for evaluating the development and changes of Hainan social economy during the 50 years from 1950 to1999 and forecasting the development of Hainan so-cial economy in future.     

AN INSIGHT ON DRIVERS OF LAND USE CHANGE AT REGIONAL SCALE

1INTRODUCTION Land use change (LUC) involves both changes to a dif- ferent function and shifts in intensity within a function. Today, researches on LUC are aiming at regional scale, andthestudiesofthetypicalregionalLUC drivingforces at meso- and small-scale become a key issue (VAN DIGGELEN et al., 2005; CHAPLOT et al., 2005). The studies of regional LUC driving forces are to reveal the realmotivationbehindtheLUCanditsinteractingmech- anism, so as to simulate and predict the p…     

Analysis of dynamics and driving factors of wetland landscape in Zoige, Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Zoige Wetland is one of the largest plateau wetlands in the world. This paper provides a dynamic analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of the wetland in Zoige, Eastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, supported by ERDAS8.7 and ArcGIS9.0. It is the first comparative analysis of a system of rapidly changing wetland with landscape patterns in Zoige, using 3 classified landsat Thematic Mapper images of 1977, 1994 and 2001. The classified images were used to generate wetland distributing maps, and shape index （S）, diversity index （H）, dominance index （D）, evenness index （E）, fragmentation index （F） and fractal dimension （Fd） were calculated and analyzed spatiotemporally across pure grazing area in Zoige for each landscape type and in different periods （before 1977, during 1977-1994 and 1994-2001）, as well as the driving forces of natural and anthropogenic. The study shows that for a comprehensive understanding of the shapes and trajectories of the shrinking and desertificated land expansion of the wetland, a spatiotemporal landscape metrics analysis in different periods is an improvement than only with landscape changing rates. This type of analysis can also be used to infer underlying social, economic, and political processes that drive the observed wetland forms. The results indicate that wetland patterns can be changed over relatively short periods of time. The total area of lake reduced by 164.86 km^2, grassland extended by 141.74 km^2, semi-marsh extended by 105.94 km^2, marsh reduced by 86.00 km^2 the number of landscape patches reduced by 56, and their average area decreased by 2.68 km^2, the successions within lake, marsh, semi-marsh and grassland were found obviously. S decreased stepwise： D and F increased but H decreased： The changing rate after 1994 was 2.3 to 2.9 times greater than that before. The change of the wetland landscape patterns resulted in the interaction between socio-ceenomic and natural forces of positive and negative aspects; and natural factors affected as assistant aspect. Some important human activities in this period led to the change of the landscape patterns in this region directly. Some measurements made by government and NGO delayed the converting process partly.     

30年来蒙古国和内蒙古的LUCC区域分异

本文以欧空局300m土地覆盖数据集为基础,参考20世纪70年代至2005年2期蒙古高原遥感影像,建立20世纪70年代、2005年2期土地利用及动态数据库,结合土地利用变化数量模型,分析了蒙古国与内蒙古的土地利用类型转换情况。对比分析蒙古国和内蒙古近30年来的土地利用变化强度及各地类间的转移变化,揭示2个区域的LUCC分异规律,并对土地变化的驱动力进行分析。结果显示:在自然条件及人类扰动共同作用下,蒙古国及内蒙古均表现出草地面积逐年减少,草地退化趋势明显;裸地面积不断增加,沙漠化现象严重;农田及城镇建设用地面积持续增长;水域面积呈现衰减;未利用地是其他各种土地利用类型增加的主要来源;由于人类扰动差异,蒙古国林地面积略有减少,内蒙古林地面积大幅增加。气候干暖化、人口增长,政策及社会经济发展等是驱动蒙古高原土地利用变化的主要因素。     

Review of studies on land use and land cover change in Nepal

Land use and land cover(LULC) in Nepal has undergone constant change over the past few decades due to major changes caused by anthropogenic and natural factors and their impacts on the national and regional environment and climate.This comprehensive review of past and present studies of land use and land cover change(LUCC) in Nepal concentrates on cropland, grassland, forest, snow/glacier cover and urban areas. While most small area studies have gathered data from different sources and research over a short period, across large areas most historical studies have been based on aerial photographs such as the Land Resource Mapping Project in 1986. The recent trend in studies in Nepal is to focus on new concepts and techniques to analyze LULC status on the basis of satellite imagery, with the help of geographic information system and remote sensing tools. Studies based on historical documents, and historical and recent spatial data on LULC, have clearly shown an increase in cropland areas in Nepal,and present results indicating different rates and magnitudes. A decrease in forest and snow/glacier coverage is reported in most studies. Little information is available on grassland and urban areas from past research. The unprecedented rate of urbanization in Nepal has led to significant urban land changes over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, long term historical LUCC research in Nepal is required for extensive work on spatially explicit reconstructions on the basis of historical and primary data collection, including LULC archives and drivers for future change.     

THE SEQUENCE OF PALEOENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SINCE ABOUT 4KA B.P., RECORDED BY NIYA SECTION IN SOUTHERN MARGIN OF TARIM BASIN

1 INTRODUCTIONOne of the 7 key plans of IGBP (International Geo-Biosphere Project) is the PAGES (Past Global Changes), of which the relation of mutual influence of mankind and natural environmental changes during historic period has attracted great attentions over the world (CHEN,1992; Committee of National Natural Science Foundation of China, 1995). Due to the atrocious natural conditions, study of this issues are much more backward in southern Xinjiang. So to investigate and…