Multiple linear regression models of urban runo pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables

Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-o pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runo coe cient. In this study, runo quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.     

Multiple linear regression models of urban runoff pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables

Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.     

北京典型汇水区域雨水径流温度特征及影响因素分析

城市化发展导致不透水地表面积率大幅攀升,由此带来的一系列问题逐渐受到人们关注,夏季城市汇水区域地表产生高温径流后汇入下游受纳水体所造成的雨水径流热污染,对水生态、水环境造成不良影响的风险尤为突出。选取北京市典型汇水区域,对2021—2022年多场降雨径流出流温度进行监测与分析,并对气象因素、下垫面温度及管道内径流热量等数据进行同步采集,运用皮尔逊相关系数法分析其影响因素。结果表明：研究区域夏季降雨常出现雨水径流温度升高现象,降水量小于12.5 mm、降雨历时短于250 min的降雨场次更易于升温,升温幅度最高可达4.1 ℃;径流温度升高往往出现在径流过程初期,温度达峰平均时间为38 min;径流是否升温与降雨强度峰值位置之间没有明显关系;气温、不透水地表初始时刻温度、降雨历时及降水量是雨水径流温度的极显著影响因素（P<0.01）;降雨期间气温、降雨历时、不透水地表初始时刻温度和管道内壁温度4个指标,可以基本解释研究区域96.7%的径流温度输出情况。

     

Uncertainties in stormwater runoff data collection from a small urban catchment, Southeast China

Monitoring data are often used to identify stormwater runoff characteristics and in stormwater runoff modelling without consideration of their inherent uncertainties. Integrated with discrete sample analysis and error propagation analysis, this study attempted to quantify the uncertainties of discrete chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) concentration, stormwater flowrate, stormwater event volumes, COD event mean concentration (EMC), and COD event loads in terms of flow measurement, sample collection, storage and laboratory analysis. The results showed that the uncertainties due to sample collection, storage and laboratory analysis of COD from stormwater runoff are 13.99%, 19.48% and 12.28%. Meanwhile, flow measurement uncertainty was 12.82%, and the sample collection uncertainty of TSS from stormwater runoff was 31.63%. Based on the law of propagation of uncertainties, the uncertainties regarding event flow volume, COD EMC and COD event loads were quantified as 7.03%, 10.26% and 18.47%.     

雨洪管理措施的水环境效应差异——基于Meta的中国案例分析

雨洪管理措施的应用可有效控制雨水径流量及其污染物,系统分析雨洪管理措施对径流及其污染物的影响有助于理解雨洪管理的水环境效应。本文基于Meta方法整理国内已发表的文献案例,通过提取雨洪管理措施的类型、应用尺度、降雨特征及径流量和污染物削减率等信息,综述了雨洪管理措施应用后径流量和污染物的变化。结果表明：（1）不同雨洪管理措施所产生的水环境效应存在差异,样本中屋顶绿化的径流削减能力最强,透水铺装的径流污染物削减效果最佳;（2）雨洪管理措施对水环境的影响具有尺度效应,大尺度区域内雨洪管理措施对径流量削减作用较弱,而小尺度区域内径流污染物削减作用较弱;（3）雨洪管理措施对径流量及其污染物的削减能力随降雨量增加呈下降趋势。结合案例数据,系统分析了雨洪管理措施在径流量及其污染物控制效果上的差异及成因,可为径流调控与污染治理等实践提供理论参考。     

Fractionation of heavy metals in runoff and discharge of a stormwater management system and its implications for treatment

A stormwater management system utilizing the mechanisms of sedimentation and filtration/infiltration was developed and constructed for the immobilization of suspended solids and heavy metal constituents （Fe, Zn, Pb, Cr, Cu, Cd, Ni） in runoff. Monitoring took place between May 2010 and November 2012 on a total of 24 storm events. This research on the fractionation of heavy metals in runoff and discharge of a stormwater system provided insight on the actual efficiency of the system and determined the implications for treatment of the particulate-bound and dissolved heavy metals in runoff. Results revealed that the partitioning of heavy metal load in runoff in either dissolved or particulate-bound were influenced by flow rate and total suspended solids load, and evident in high-intensity storm （rainfall-runoff event）. On the other hand, the partitioning of heavy metal load discharge from the stormwater system was more apparent during the early period of discharge having higher variability in dissolved than particulate-bound heavy metal. Findings revealed that fractionation of heavy metals played an important role in the performance of the stormwater system; thus, must be considered in designing stormwater systems. For the stormwater system to be effective, it is recommended to design the system treating not only the early period of a storm （first flush criteria） rather until the peak part of the hydrograph （high flow rate where partitioning was greatest） from a load basis.     

First flush of storm runoff pollution from an urban catchment in China

Storm runoff pollution process was investigated in an urban catchment with an area of 1.3 km^2 in Wuhan City of China. The results indicate that the pollutant concentration peaks preceded the flow peaks in all of 8 monitored storm events. The intervals between pollution peak and flow peak were shorter in the rain events with higher intensity in the initial period than those with lower intensity. The fractions of pollution load transported by the first 30% of runoff volume （FF30） were 52.2%-72.1% for total suspended solids （TSS）, 53.0%-65.3% for chemical oxygen demand （COD）, 40.4%-50.6% for total nitrogen （TN）, and 45.8%-63.2% for total phosphorus （TP）, respectively. Runoff pollution was positively related to non-raining days before the rainfall. Intercepting the first 30% of runoff volume can remove 62.4% of TSS load, 59.4% of COD load, 46.8% of TN load, and 54.1% of TP load, respectively, according to all the storm events. It is suggested that controlling the first flush is a critical measure in reduction of urban stormwater pollution.     

上海市典型畜禽养殖场雨水径流中PPCPs的输移特性

以上海市某大型畜禽养殖场为研究区域,揭示了该养殖场雨水径流中19种药物和个人护理品（PPCPs）的存在水平和时间变化规律,阐明了雨水径流的初期冲刷效应.结果表明,不同采样时间点雨水径流样品中目标PPCPs浓度范围为0.62~166ng/L,15种PPCPs检出率可达100%;目标PPCPs在降雨前期（径流产生的15~30min）出现浓度峰值,随后浓度降低并趋于稳定;通过描述径流污染输出负荷同径流量关系的L_P-F曲线和前30%径流流量排放的污染物负荷比指标（FF30）进一步证明该养殖场雨水径流中PPCPs具有显著的初期冲刷效应;研究结果为有效控制畜禽养殖场雨水径流中PPCPs污染提供了重要参考.     

SWMM 模型在城市不透水区地表径流模拟中的参数识别与验证

为了研究城市不透水下垫面的降雨径流过程和污染负荷,以屋面为例,选择径流管理模型SWMM,采用独立场次实测数据,应用基于不确定性分析的HSY算法和Monte Carlo采样方法对模型中的水文水力和水质参数进行识别和验证.结果表明,地表不透水区径流模型中主要包含6个关键参数,分别为不透水区初损填洼深度(S-imperv)、不透水区曼宁系数(N-imperv),指数累积方程中的最大可能累积值(max buildup)、累积常数(rate constant),指数冲刷方程中的冲刷系数(coefficient)和冲刷指数 (exponent).水文水力参数的识别可以最小二乘法偏差作为目标函数,水质参数的识别可以场次污染负荷和污染物峰值浓度作为目标函数.参数识别结果为N-imperv0.012～0.025, S-imperv 0～0.7, max buildup 15～30, rate constant0.2～0.8, coefficient0.01～ 0.05, exponent1.0～1.2.参数的区域灵敏度由大到小排序为 coefficient、S-imperv、N-imperv、max buildup、exponent、rate constant.识别后的参数可以通过模型验证,但是在模拟一些雨型特殊的降雨径流污染物浓度曲线时,仍然存在一定的困难.     

镇江城市降雨径流营养盐污染特征研究

城市降雨径流污染是城市水体水质恶化的主要原因之一,为了分析降雨径流的污染特征,从2006-05开始,选择镇江具有代表性的土地使用功能对其降雨径流水质进行监测,分析了径流中固体悬浮物和营养盐的变化特征.结果表明,镇江不同功能区中5～40 μm粒径的固体悬浮物体积分数最大;商业区径流污染物浓度很高,其中SS浓度高达978 mg/L,是城市面源污染的主要来源;降雨初期的30 min径流污染物浓度很高,随降雨历时的延长污染物浓度逐渐下降并趋于稳定;溶解态氮、颗粒态磷和固体悬浮物是径流中污染物输出的主要形态;通过分析固体悬浮物与其他污染物的相关性,发现固体悬浮物是径流中营养盐吸附的载体,去除固体悬浮物是治理镇江降雨径流污染的有效途径.     

城市水污染物排放总量核定方法的研究

排污总量管理的首要任务是确定区域污染物排放总量。针对我国的水污染监测管理系统的现状,本文提出了一种“系统特征值核定排污总量方法”。该法以城市或城市某排污区的排污干管（或河道）输出的污染物总量实测值为基本依据,对各种排污总量的申报统计值进行正误的识别、校核与调整,汇总综合评价结果,核定排污总量及各个分量。该方法既使核定的排污总量增加科学性和准确性,又减少了核定的工作量;即使缺乏排污申报数据,也能迅速可靠地掌握城市的排污总量。该方法的有效性已在济南市应用中得到证实     

利用多模式集合和多元线性回归改进北京PM_(10)预报

本研究将多模式集合预报和多元线性回归集成方法结合起来减小空气质量预报的不确定性.首先评估了北京空气质量多模式集合预报系统中3个模式成员(NAQPMS、CAMx、CMAQ)对北京地区PM10日均浓度的预报性能,在此基础上引入多元线性回归将历史观测信息纳入进来对3个模式预报结果进行集成,并将集成预报结果与3个模式算术平均的预报结果进行比较.结果发现:1不同模式的预报结果差异较大,并没有一个模式的预报技巧完全优于其它两个模式,其中CMAQ对北京PM10变化趋势的预报优于其它两个模式,NAQPMS预报的均方根误差整体低于其他两个模式.2多模式预报结果的算术平均在趋势预报和偏差两项指标上都低于部分单模式预报,并不能有效改进PM10预报;基于分站点的模式和观测数据构建的多元线性回归集成预报模型能显著提高PM10预报的准确率,选定合适的训练天数(36 d)后,28个站点PM10日均值预报的均方根误差相对单模式预报或集合平均预报下降32%~43%,预报偏差大幅减小至5.8μg·m-3,总体预报技巧显著优于单模式和多模式算术平均的预报结果,并且采用线性回归集成方法大幅提高了对污染过程的预报能力.     

武汉汉阳地区城市集水区尺度降雨径流污染过程与排放特征

2005年4月至8月对武汉市汉阳地区十里铺集水区进行了8次径流污染过程的水量、水质研究.结果表明,城市集水区尺度径流污染过程是降雨径流对整个集水区地表、排水系统中累积污染物的冲刷、携带过程,受集水区累积污染物数量、污染物可冲刷性和降雨径流特征的共同影响.城市降雨径流中初期污染物浓度显著高于后期,污染物浓度的峰值提前于径流的峰值,具有明显的初期冲刷效应.8次监测结果的算术平均值,初期5 mm、10 mm和15 mm降雨径流中TSS的负荷分别占总负荷的48%、68%和78%.初期径流中TSS的负荷与晴天累积天数呈线性正相关关系.     

城市不同功能区径流中PCBs的污染特征及毒性评价

选取温州不同城市功能区小区路面、停车场、汇流口、小区屋面以及交通干道作为研究对象,采集径流样品测定了14种多氯联苯(PCBs)的浓度,并对其进行多元统计分析,探讨了其可能的污染来源.结果表明,不同城市功能区径流中PCBs含量和检出率有所差别但变化不大,其中小区屋面要高于交通干道、汇流口、停车场和小区路面(均值分别为337.9, 306.3, 240.1, 193.2, 172.7ng/L);径流中以五氯代PCBs为主,占到总量31.4%~56.2%;径流中PCBs跟SS浓度相关性较差;由多元统计分析结果可以看出,高低氯代PCBs污染来源不同;TEQs在汇流口、小区路面、停车场径流中浓度相对较大,分别达到4.4, 4.1, 4.0ng/L,这跟其径流中CB126含量较高有关.     

基于绝对主成分-多元线性回归的滇池污染源解析

定量解析污染源是湖泊流域水环境管理的重要基础.基于滇池草海和外海多年水质监测数据,采用主成分分析（PCA）方法识别了主要水质指标的污染源类型,利用绝对主成分-多元线性回归模型（APCS-MLR）得到不同污染源对水质的贡献程度.结果表明,草海主要的污染源有农业面源、城市面源和内源3类,外海的主要污染源是农业面源、城镇生活污染源、城市面源和内源4类.与河流水污染源解析结果不同,底泥内源与气象因子对滇池主要水质指标的影响较大.     

城市交通干道降雨径流中PAHs的污染特征

以上海、温州市典型交通干道地表径流为研究对象,分析了样品中16种溶解态和颗粒态PAHs浓度,了解了城市交通干道降雨径流中PAHs污染特征及其动态变化过程.结果表明,径流中∑PAHs(包括溶解相、颗粒相)浓度范围为919.8～16711.6ng·L-1,溶解相中PAHs浓度要远低于颗粒相(分别为4.9～1558.0ng·L-1,635.4～16624.0ng·L-1).通过对3场降雨事件中PAHs浓度随降雨过程变化的研究,可以发现并不是所有道路径流都有初期冲刷效应,初期冲刷的产生受雨前干期、降雨强度以及径流量等因素共同作用,因此简单拦截初期径流并不能十分有效地降低PAHs污染负荷.径流中PAHs在颗粒相-水相间的分配系数Kp值为2.3×104～2.5×106L·kg-1,随着悬浮颗粒物含量增加而减少,这可能跟径流过程中颗粒物粒径组成有关.     

城市垃圾产生量预测研究

通过对城市生活垃圾产生状况的分析，选取我国西部和东部的典型城市成都、上海进行研究。运用线性回归模型对两城市垃圾量进行预测，为城市建设规划和垃圾综合处理提供依据。     

城市降雨径流模拟的参数不确定性分析

以厦门城市小流域为例,基于蒙特卡洛随机采样和区域灵敏度分析(RSA)方法,从参数的可识别性和灵敏度分析2个方面来分析城市降雨径流SWMM模型参数的不确定性.结果表明,水文水力模块中汇水单元不透水区贮水深度(Dstore-Imperv)、汇水单元透水区贮水深度(Dstore-Perv)和CN特征曲线(Curve Number)这3个参数可识别性较好,区域灵敏度高;水文水力模块的区域灵敏度的排序为:Dstore-ImpervCNDstore-Perv汇水单元透水区曼宁糙率(N-Perv)传导系数(Conductivity)管道曼宁糙率(Con-Mann)汇水单元不透水区曼宁糙率(N-Imperv).水质模块冲刷函数中地表冲刷系数(Coefficient)和地表径流幂指数(Exponent)这2个参数以及累积函数中的地表最大可累积的污染物量(Max.Buildup)的识别性较高,区域灵敏度较大.而从区域灵敏度的排序来看,3种用地类型的地表累积速率(Rate Constant)参数K-S距离最小,Max.Buildup、Coefficient和Exponent参数的K-S距离相对较大.     

厦门市城市绿地雨洪减排效应评价

城市绿地在对雨水的渗透、滞留和调蓄方面具有非常显著的作用,能够有效削减城市的雨洪流量,缓解内涝压力.以海绵城市试点——厦门市为典型区,在日降雨数据、土地利用数据、土壤类型数据、城市绿地空间分布数据和城市建成区空间范围数据等多源数据的支撑下,系统评价了厦门市建成区城市绿地的雨洪减排效应.其中,雨洪减排效应的实物量通过SCS（Soil Conservation Service）模型进行评估,价值量则利用替代市场法进行估算.结果表明:2010年厦门市单位城市绿地削减的雨洪径流深为262.28 mm,削减的雨洪径流总量为4 385.40×104 m3,减排服务价值为2.75×108元;2015年单位城市绿地削减的雨洪径流深为335.77 mm,削减的雨洪径流总量为7 634.37×104 m3,减排服务价值为5.49×108元.城市绿地面积、降水量及其时程分配是影响城市绿地雨洪减排效应的关键因子,在其共同驱动下,2015年厦门市城市绿地的雨洪减排效应较2010年显著增加.研究显示,SCS模型在数据输入和参数率定等方面具有显著优势,能够在地理空间上连续模拟厦门市整个建成区的产流量,进而实现行政区单元和城市绿地类型单元雨洪减排效应的双重评价,3种城市绿地类型（乔木、灌木和草本）单位面积的雨洪减排效应并无明显差异,受绿地面积支配,厦门市80%的城市绿地雨洪减排效应由乔木绿地产生.      

Revealing the characteristics of dissolved organic matter in urban runoff at three typical regions via optical indices and molecular composition

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays a major role in ecological systems and influences the fate and transportation of many pollutants. Despite the significance of DOM, understanding of how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence its composition and characteristics is limited, especially in urban stormwater runoff. In this article, the chemical properties (pollutant loads, molecular weight, aromaticity, sources, and molecular composition) of DOM in stormwater extracted from three typical end-members (traffic, residential, and campus regions) were characterized by UV–visible (UV–vis) spectroscopy, excitation-emission matrix spectroscopy combined with parallel factor analysis (EEM-PARAFAC), and ultra-performance liquid chromatography quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (UPLC-Q-TOF-MS). There are three findings: (1) The basic properties of DOM in stormwater runoff varied obviously from three urban fields, and the effect of initial flush was also apparent. (2) The DOM in residential areas mainly came from autochthonous sources, while allochthonous sources primarily contributed to the DOM in traffic and campus areas. However, it was mainly composed of terrestrial humic-like components with CHO and CHON element composition and HULO and aliphatic formulas. (3) The parameters characterizing DOM were primarily related to terrestrial source and aromaticity, but their correlations varied. Through the combination of optical methods and UPLC-Q-TOF spectrometry, the optical and molecular characteristics of rainwater are effectively revealed, which may provide a solid foundation for the classification management of stormwater runoff in different urban regions.