Stability analysis for an epidemic model with stage structure

An epidemic model with stage structure is formulated. The period of infection is partitioned into the early and later stages according to the developing process of infection, and the infectious individuals in the different stages have the different ability of transmitting disease. The constant recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as the disease-related death, are incorporated into the model. The basic reproduction number of this model is determined by the method of next generation matrix. The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the local stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained; the global stability of the endemic equilibrium is got under the case that the infection is not fatal.     

Qualitative and bifurcation analysis using a computer virus model with a saturated recovery function

In this paper, we introduce a saturated treatment function into the computer virus propagation model, where the treatment function is limited for increasing number of infected computers. By carrying out global qualitative and bifurcation analysis, it is shown that the system exhibits some new and complicated behaviors: if the basic reproduction number is larger than unity, the number of infected computers will show persistent behavior, either converging to some positive constant or oscillating; and if the basic reproduction number is below unity, the model may exhibit complicated behaviors including: (i) backward bifurcation; (ii) almost sure virus eradication where the number of infective computers tends to zero for all initial positions except the interior equilibria; (iii) ‘‘oscillating’’ backward bifurcation where either the number of infective computers oscillates persistently, if the initial position lies in a region covering the stable virus equilibrium, or virus eradication, if the initial position lies outside this region; (iv) virus eradication for all initial positions if the basic reproduction number is less than a turning point value.     

Global analysis of a vector-host epidemic model with nonlinear incidences

In this paper, an epidemic model with nonlinear incidences is proposed to describe the dynamics of diseases spread by vectors (mosquitoes), such as malaria, yellow fever, dengue and so on. The constant human recruitment rate and exponential natural death, as well as vector population with asymptotically constant population, are incorporated into the model. The stability of the system is analyzed for the disease-free and endemic equilibria. The stability of the system can be controlled by the threshold number R₀. It is shown that if R₀ is less than one, the disease free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable and in such a case the endemic equilibrium does not exist; if R₀ is greater than one, then the disease persists and the unique endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Our results imply that the threshold condition of the system provides important guidelines for accessing control of the vector diseases, and the spread of vector epidemic in an efficient way can be prevented. The contribution of the nonlinear saturating incidence to the basic reproduction number and the level of the endemic equilibrium are also analyzed, respectively.     

Global dynamics of a mathematical model for HTLV-I infection of CD4 T-cells

In this paper, a mathematical model for HILV-I infection of CD4⁺ T-cells is investigated. The force of infection is assumed be of a function in general form, and the resulting incidence term contains, as special cases, the bilinear and the saturation incidences. The model can be seen as an extension of the model [Wang et al. Mathematical analysis of the global dynamics of a model for HTLV-I infection and ATL progression, Math. Biosci. 179 (2002) 207-217; Song, Li, Global stability and periodic solution of a model for HTLV-I infection and ATL progression, Appl. Math. Comput. 180(1) (2006) 401-410]. Mathematical analysis establishes that the global dynamics of T-cells infection is completely determined by a basic reproduction number _R0${\mathfrak{R}}_0$. If _R0?1${\mathfrak{R}}_0?1$, the infection-free equilibrium is globally stable; if _R0>1${\mathfrak{R}}_0>1$, the unique infected equilibrium is globally stable in the interior of the feasible region.     

Mathematical analysis of a model for the transmission dynamics of bovine tuberculosis

A deterministic model for studying the transmission dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in a single cattle herd is presented and qualitatively analyzed. A notable feature of the model is that it allows for the importation of asymptomatically infected cattle (into the herd) because re‐stocking from outside sources. Rigorous analysis of the model shows that the model has a globally‐asymptotically stable disease‐free equilibrium whenever a certain epidemiological threshold, known as the reproduction number, is less than unity. In the absence of importation of asymptomatically infected cattle, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium whenever the reproduction number exceeds unity (this equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable for a special case). It is further shown that, for the case where asymptomatically infected cattle are imported into the herd, the model has a unique endemic equilibrium. This equilibrium is also shown to be globally asymptotically stable for a special case. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Equilibrium and sensitivity analysis of a spatio-temporal host-vector epidemic model

Insect-borne diseases are diseases carried by insects affecting humans, animals or plants. They have the potential to generate massive outbreaks such as the Zika epidemic in 2015–2016 mostly distributed in the Americas, the Pacific and Southeast Asia, and the multi-foci outbreak caused by the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa in Europe in the 2010s. In this article, we propose and analyze the behavior of a spatially-explicit compartmental model adapted to pathosystems with fixed hosts and mobile vectors disseminating the disease. The behavior of this model based on a system of partial differential equations is complementarily characterized via a theoretical study of its equilibrium states and a numerical study of its transient phase using global sensitivity analysis. The results are discussed in terms of implications concerning the surveillance and control of the disease over a medium-to-long temporal horizon.     

Dynamics of an HIV infection model with virus diffusion and latently infected cell activation

Effective combination therapy usually reduces the plasma viral load of HIV to below the detection limit, but it cannot eradicate the virus. The latently infected cell activation is considered to be the main obstacle to completely eradicating HIV infection. In this paper, we consider an HIV infection model with latently infected cell activation, virus diffusion and spatial heterogeneity under Neumann boundary condition. The basic reproduction ratio is characterized by the principal eigenvalue of the related elliptic eigenvalue problem. Besides, by constructing Lyapunov functionals and using Green’s first identity, the global threshold dynamics of the system are completely established. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the theoretical results, in particular, the influence of virus diffusion rate on the basic reproduction ratio is addressed.     

Stability analysis of an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment

An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment is investigated. The model allows for some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase by all sorts of treatment methods. We first establish the ODE treatment model with two infective stages. Mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number _ℜ0${\Re }_0$. If _ℜ0≤1${\Re }_0\le 1$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable, whereas the unique infected equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if _ℜ0>1${\Re }_0>1$. Then, we introduce a discrete time delay to the model to describe the time from the start of treatment in the symptomatic stage until treatment effects become visible. The effect of the time delay on the stability of the endemically infected equilibrium is investigated. Moreover, the delay model exhibits Hopf bifurcations by using the delay as a bifurcation parameter. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.     

Global properties of a general dynamic model for animal diseases: A case study of brucellosis and tuberculosis transmission

Animal diseases such as brucellosis and tuberculosis can be transmitted through an environmentally mediated mechanism, but the topics of most modeling work are based on infectious contact and direct transmission, which leads to the limited understanding of the transmission dynamics of these diseases. In this paper, we propose a new deterministic model which incorporates general incidences, various stages of infection and a general shedding rate of the pathogen to analyze the dynamics of these diseases. Under the biologically motivated assumptions, we derive the basic reproduction number _R0$R_0$, show the uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and prove the global asymptotically stability of the equilibria. Some specific examples are used to illustrate the utilization of our results. In addition, we elaborate the epidemiological significance of these results, which are very important for the prevention and control of animal diseases.     

Mathematical analysis of the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Sudan

In this paper we develop a mathematical model to study the dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis in the Sudan. To develop this model we consider the dynamics of the disease between three different populations, human, reservoir and vector populations. The model is analyzed at equilibrium and the stability of the equilibria is analyzed. The basic reproduction number is derived, and the threshold conditions for disease elimination established. Results show that the disease can be eliminated under certain conditions. Simulations of the model show that human treatment helps in disease control, and its synergy with vector control will more likely result in the elimination of the disease.     

The effect of vaccines on backward bifurcation in a fractional order HIV model

In this paper, a homogeneous-mixing population fractional model for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission, which incorporates anti-HIV preventive vaccines, is proposed. The dynamics of the model indicate that the basic reproduction number being the unity is a strict threshold for disease eradication when there is no vaccine. However, it has been shown that when the efficacy or dosage of vaccines is low, the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, where a stable disease-free equilibrium point (DFE) coexists with a stable endemic equilibrium point (EE) when the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Therefore, driving the basic reproduction number below the unity is not enough to eradicate the disease. A new critical value at the turning point should be deduced as a new threshold of disease eradication. We have generalized the integer LaSalle invariant set theorem into fractional system and given some sufficient conditions for the disease-free equilibrium point being globally asymptotical stability. Mathematical results in this paper suggest that improving the efficiency and dosage of vaccines are all valid methods for the control of disease.     

Asymptotic stability of a mathematical model of cell population

We consider a simplified system of a growing colony of cells described as a free boundary problem. The system consists of two hyperbolic equations of first order coupled to an ODE to describe the behavior of the boundary. The system for cell populations includes non-local terms of integral type in the coefficients. By introducing a comparison with solutions of an ODE's system, we show that there exists a unique homogeneous steady state which is globally asymptotically stable for a range of parameters under the assumption of radially symmetric initial data.     

Dynamics of a two-strain vaccination model for polio

A new deterministic model for the transmission dynamics of two strains of polio, the vaccine-derived polio virus (VDPV) and the wild polio virus (WPV), in a population is designed and rigorously analysed. It is shown that Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) reversion (leading to increased incidences of WPV and VDPV strains), together with the combined effect of vaccinating a fraction of the unvaccinated susceptible and missed susceptible children, could induce the phenomenon of backward bifurcation when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. Furthermore, the model undergoes competitive exclusion, where the strain with the higher reproduction number (greater than unity) drives the other (with reproduction number less than unity) to extinction. In the absence of OPV reversions (leading to the co-existence of both strains in the population), it is shown that the disease-free equilibrium of the model is globally-asymptotically stable whenever the associated reproduction number is less than unity. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that the model undergoes the phenomenon of competitive exclusion, where the strain with the higher reproduction number (greater than unity) drives the other to extinction. Furthermore, co-existence of the two strains is feasible if their respective reproduction number are equal or approximately equal (and greater than unity).     

Analysis of and numerical schemes for a mouse population model in Hantavirus epidemics

This paper considers a non-linear system of ordinary differential equations, which arises in the study of hantavirus epidemics. The system has the property that the total population obeys the logistic equation. For this system, we use linearization and the dynamical properties of the logistic equation to analyze the dynamics of the subpopulation system. In view of the usual numerical instabilities associated with standard finite difference methods used for simulating such systems, we construct non-standard finite difference (NSFD) schemes, which preserve the dynamic properties of the system, and may therefore be used for its simulation.     

Global dynamics of a two-patch SIS model with infection during transport

A two-patch SIS model is formulated and studied. The standard incidence rate and mass-action incidence rate are used within each patch and during transport, respectively. The basic reproduction number is calculated and the global dynamics is investigated. The simulation results show the influence of travel rates, the different dynamics by using standard incidence rate and mass-action incidence rate. The importance of border screening is also explored by numerical simulation.