美国本土地区蓄量时空变化特性及其影响因素研究

为了解美国本土地区水量平衡的时空变化规律以及气候、植被、地形、人类活动等影响因子对不同空间尺度蓄量变化的影响,基于水量平衡公式,利用遥感观测蒸散发数据、遥感与地面观测融合降水数据、再分析降水数据、模型模拟蒸散发与径流数据、站点实测径流数据的不同组合计算蓄量变化,分析美国本土地区的蓄量变化时空变化特征。结果发现:不同来源数据计算的蓄量变化时空分布差异较大并且均存在显著偏差,其中西部沿海与山区的蓄量变化有显著季节性波动,而东部地区较稳定;众多因子中降水对蓄量变化的影响最大。根据不同来源数据计算得到的蓄量变化有显著偏差,其原因包括:①对流域水循环结构组成的认识不足且缺乏测量;②降水、径流与蒸散发数据存在不确定性;③时空尺度问题。     

Estimation of Groundwater Balance Using Soil-Water-Vegetation Model and GIS

This study concerns the development of a methodology using modern techniques of data generation (Modeling) and interpretation (GIS) to compute groundwater plausibly at regional scale, alternate to previously established norms. The approach is centered on quantitative estimation of two main parameters-input and output. GIS techniques along with soil vegetation model (CropSyst) have been demonstrated for the calculation of groundwater balance components. Using the developed methodology water resources of the Ludhiana district for the period between, 2000 and 2010 were estimated. The temporal changes in water balance components indicated that the major inputs to the hydrologic system are rainfall and canal water and the major out component are evapotranspiration (ET). Multi-annual (2000 to 2010) average of 719 mm rainfall, 88 mm canal water, 74 mm of groundwater inflow, with annual loss 974 mm as ET, caused 123 mm of net negative groundwater recharge in Ludhiana district. The annual computed rise/fall with the developed methodology closely matched the observed values.     

Using the Fuzzy Clustering and Principle Component Analysis for Assessing the Impact of Potential Evapotranspiration Calculation Method On the Modified RDI Index

The modified reconnaissance drought index (RDIe) which is a modified version of RDI is presented for assessing drought conditions with an emphasis on agricultural drought. The potential evapotranspiration (PET) and effective rainfall are required climatic variables to calculate RDIe. Although the FAO Penman–Monteith (FPM) equation is the reference method for determining the PET, due to the need for data of a large number of climatic variables it is difficult to use in areas with shortage climatic data. Therefore, in this research, using the fuzzy clustering (FC) and principle component analysis (PCA) methods, the influence of PET calculation methods including FPM (used as reference method), FAO Penman (FP), Hargreaves-Samani (HS), Blaney-Criddle (BC), Turc (Tu), Jensen-Haise (JH), Priestley–Taylor (PT) and FAO24 Radiation (Ra) methods on the RDIe (in 1, 3 and 12-month time scales) was assessed. In this study the climatic data series of 5 stations in Fars province, Iran from 1989 to 2018 was used. Based on the results of PCA model, in short-term time scales (1 and 3-month), the calculated RDIe values based on the HS method (at 100% of stations) and in long-term time scale (annual) based on the FP method (at 60% of stations) had the highest correlation with RDIe based on the FPM method. According to the results of FC method, in 1-month time scale, the values of RDIe using PT and HS methods (at 100% and 80% of selected stations, respectively), in 3-month time scale, the values of RDIe using PT, HS and Ra methods (at 100% of stations) and in annual time scale, the values of RDIe using FP method (at 60% of stations) had the highest similarities with the values of RDIe using FPM. Therefore, it is recommended to replace the FPM method with HS (in 1 and 3-month time scales) and FP (in 12-month time scales) methods in areas with minimum available meteorological data.

     

北京市潜在蒸散发量的时间序列变化特征分析

区域蒸散发是一个地区气象和农业生产的重要水分指标。现采用彭曼公式计算潜在蒸散发,研究了北京市1960年-2011年潜在蒸散发及其影响因素的变化趋势,并对研究区潜在蒸散发时间序列变化进行了多尺度周期性分析。研究结果显示,潜在蒸散发线性变化趋势为每年增加0.54mm,利用Mann-Kendall检验得到区域蒸散发增加趋势不明显,并且无突变点;气温升高,降水量下降导致蒸散发量增加,日照时数下降导致蒸散发量下降;总体上,气温和降水量对北京地区蒸散量影响更大。对北京地区蒸散发进行多尺度周期分析,发现该地区在14a、11～12a、5～6a上存在周期特征,各信号频率分布的时间域及其强度也存在着差异,而且近15年周期特点不同于历史上以往的时期。     

Understanding groundwater table using a statistical model

In this study, a statistical model was established to estimate the groundwater table using precipitation, evaporation, the river stage of the Liangduo River, and the tide level of the Yellow Sea, as well as to predict the groundwater table with easily measurable climate data in a coastal plain in eastern China. To achieve these objectives, groundwater table data from twelve wells in a farmland covering an area of 50 m × 150 m were measured over a 12-month period in 2013 in Dongtai City, Jiangsu Province. Trend analysis and correlation analysis were conducted to study the patterns of changes in the groundwater table. In addition, a linear regression model was established and regression analysis was conducted to understand the relationships between precipitation, evaporation, river stage, tide level, and groundwater table. The results are as follows:(1) The groundwater table was strongly affected by climate factors(e.g., precipitation and evaporation), and river stage was also a significant factor affecting the groundwater table in the study area( p 0.01, where p is the probability value).(2) The groundwater table was especially sensitive to precipitation. The significance of the factors of the groundwater table were ranked in the following descending order:precipitation, evaporation, and river stage.(3) A triple linear regression model of the groundwater table, precipitation, evaporation, and river stage was established. The linear relationship between the groundwater table and the main factors was satisfied by the actual values versus the simulated values of the groundwater table(R~2 = 0.841, where R~2 is the coefficient of determination).     

关中地区干旱等级模糊综合评价

基于关中地区5个市区2013年全年的水文气象数据,选取了降水、径流、水库蓄水及地下水4大指标,采用以层次分析法来确定权重的模糊综合评价法,对关中5个市区2013年的干旱情况进行等级评价。评价结果表明:采用单一指标来进行干旱等级评价,评价结果会有所差异,而模糊综合评价法很好地解决了单一指标评价的不全面性和差异性;关中5市中,宝鸡市综合评价结果为无旱,西安、咸阳、渭南及铜川评价结果均为轻度干旱,主要原因是2013年宝鸡市降雨量比其他4市丰富;2013年关中地区全年整体干旱程度为轻度干旱至无旱,评价结果与实际情况基本一致,表明该评价方法在关中地区干旱等级评价中具有一定的可行性。     

不同降水情景下天津市地下水位的时空变化特征

为了定量模拟和评价不同降雨情景下天津市不同含水层地下水位时空变化情况,通过对天津市水文地质条件的分析和已获取的资料建立地下水系统的三维数值模拟模型,并利用已知的地下水位动态数据对模型进行拟合与检验,确定模型的可靠性。然后利用模型对常态条件下(地下水开采量维持不变,50%频率下的降水量)和极端气候条件下(地下水开采量维持不变,95%频率下的降水量)天津市地下水位的时空变化特征进行预测和评价,分析不同含水层地下水位对两种情景的动态响应机制。结果表明:两种方案下10 a后的地下水流场特征较为相近,地下水流向也基本一致,地下水位均有所下降,在开采量不变情况下,降水量的减少对承压含水层的影响较为有限。     

Development of a Rainfall-Recharge Relationship for a Fractured Basaltic Aquifer in Central India

Groundwater being an important component of the hydrological cycle, estimation of its annual replenishment is essential to evolve a plan for optimum utilization. Groundwater balance approach, which is used extensively for the quantification of recharge and discharge components has been adopted for the rainfall-recharge estimation. Various inflow and outflow components have been identified and estimated for Sagar block in Sagar district of Madhya Pradesh, which faces acute water scarcity and continuous decline in groundwater levels. The computed recharge from rainfall varies between 122.45 and 183.71 MCM. The computed rainfall-recharge is compared with the Chaturvedi (1973), Kumar and Seethapathi (2002), Krishna (1987), and U.P. Irrigation Research Institute models. Models have also been developed to estimate rainfall-recharge for varying ranges of the annual rainfall and have been compared with the existing models. The relative error in estimation of rainfall-recharge from proposed models varies between 0.03 and 9.24%. The overall scenario is net decline in groundwater storage to an extent of ?31.31 MCM over a period of 16 years from 1985–1986 to 2000–2001. The trend analysis by Kendall’s rank correlation test, regression test for linear trend and Mann–Kendall test also clearly suggests falling trends in groundwater storage at 5% significant level, thereby demonstrating over-exploitation of the groundwater aquifer. This has subsequently led to progressive decline in groundwater table in the study area. Efforts should be initiated to tap the surface water by creating storages at suitable sites and artificial recharge practices should be encouraged after identifying suitable recharge zones. Conjunctive use of the surface and groundwater along with water conservation practices and groundwater management measures should be taken up to arrest the progressive decline in groundwater levels and over-exploitation of groundwater aquifer.     

Drought Characterisation Based on Water Surplus Variability Index

Drought assessment, characterisation and monitoring increasingly requires considering not only precipitation but also the other meteorological parameters such as an evapotranspiration. Thus, some new drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration have been developed. This study introduces a new drought index named the water surplus variability index (WSVI). The procedure to estimate the index involves accumulation water surplus at different time scales. To approve the proposed procedure, the WSVI is compared with the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales using data from several weather stations located in regions with different aridity index. Near perfect agreement (d?~?1) between WSVI and SPI, RDI and SPEI was indicated in humid and sub-humid locations. The results also showed that the correlation coefficients between WSVI and SPI, RDI and SPEI were higher for semi-arid stations than for arid ones.     

近63年陕西宝鸡极端强降水事件变化特征诊断

为明确宝鸡市极端强降水事件变化特征,掌握极端降水事件发生规律,以1952-2014年宝鸡气象站点逐日降水量实测值为基础,综合运用气候倾向率、Morlet小波函数、R/S分析法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法对极端降水变化特征进行诊断分析。结果表明:宝鸡市近63 a来,除年降水总量、强降水量、中雨日数、大雨日数呈波动下降趋势外,其余指数呈现上升趋势,其中以极强降水量变化表现最为剧烈,变率超过1 mm/10a。强降水量和极强降水量呈现大小尺度相互嵌套的周期变化趋势,二者仅存在弱突变;未来宝鸡强降水变化与过去变化趋势一致将呈减少态势,极强降水变化以反向趋势呈减少态势发展。此外,各极端强降水指数与年降水总量、降水强度呈现正相关,年降水的变化可以很好的反映极端降水指数的变化。     

Groundwater Recharge Assessment for the Kalahari Catchment of North-eastern Namibia and North-western Botswana with a Regional-scale Water Balance Model

Groundwater is the only source of drinking water for the inhabitants of the Kalahari. Thus understanding spatial and temporal variations in groundwater recharge is very important and a regional-scale water balance model has therefore been set up for a 209,149 km² catchment in north-eastern Namibia and north-western Botswana. The model has a spatial resolution of 1.5 × 1.5 km, daily model time-steps, and climatic input parameters for 19 years are used. The distributed, GIS-based, process-oriented, physical water balance model (MODBIL) used in this study considers the major water balance components: precipitation, evapotranspiration, groundwater recharge, and surface runoff/interflow. Mean precipitation for the study area is 409 mm a⁻¹, while mean actual evapotranspiration is 402 mm a⁻¹ and mean groundwater recharge is 8 mm a⁻¹ (2% of mean annual precipitation). The recharge pattern is mainly influenced by the distribution of soil and vegetation units. Groundwater recharge shows a high inter- and intra-annual variability, but not only the sum of annual precipitation is important for the development of groundwater recharge; a large amount of precipitation in a relatively short period is more important. Published independent data from the Kalahari in Namibia, Botswana and the Southern African region under similar climatic conditions are used to verify the modelling results.     

基于标准化降水蒸散指数的长江流域旱涝情势演变

基于长江流域133个气象站1970-2012年实测逐月降水量和月平均气温资料,计算不同时间尺度上的标准化降水蒸散指数序列,研究近几十年来长江流域旱涝情势的时空演变特征。结果表明,1970-2012年长江流域整体干旱形势不严重,但是干旱化的趋势比较明显。与长江上游地区相比,长江中下游区域的干旱趋势表现得更加突出,特别是长时间尺度上的干旱趋势非常明显。针对典型极端气象事件分析发现,标准化降水蒸散指数能够反映出不同时间尺度上长江流域发生的旱涝事件,表明该指数对于准确评估长江流域的旱涝程度和分布范围具有很好的指示性意义。     

基于SPEI指数的辽宁省多尺度旱涝特征分析

近年来辽宁省深受旱涝灾害的影响,明确其时空演变特征对进一步制定防灾减灾策略具有重要意义。利用1989—2018年辽宁省23个气象站点逐日气象数据,基于不同时间尺度的标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI指数),运用Mann-Kendall突变检验、线性倾向率等数理统计方法,对辽宁省近30年来旱涝演变及持续性特征进行分析,并结合通径分析方法探究其影响因素。结果表明:(1)近30年来辽宁省经历涝-旱-涝的演化过程,辽西干旱化显著,变涝趋势最显著的是辽中和辽北,其次是降水量最丰富的辽东;(2)从中度及以上旱涝灾害频率看,1999—2008年为典型的干旱时段,而2009—2018年则为偏涝时段,旱涝事件发生频率春季冬季秋季夏季;(3)持续性干旱事件强度变小,主要发生在春季。持续性洪涝事件呈增加趋势,主要发生在春、夏两季;(4)降水量是影响旱涝变化的主要因素,蒸散量次之,气温是通过影响降水量和蒸散量进而影响旱涝变化的。     

基于SWAT模型的秦淮河流域气候变化水文响应研究

为了解气候变化对水文水资源的影响机理,以秦淮河流域为研究区构建SWAT模型,使用SWAT-CUP对模型进行参数敏感性分析、率定及验证,并采用任意假设法设计未来气候情景,分析温度及降雨变化对流域径流及实际蒸散发量的影响。结果表明:模型在月径流模拟中具有较高的精度,适用于秦淮河流域气候变化下的水文响应研究;气温降低或降雨量上升都会引起流域径流量增加,反之则减少;实际蒸散发量与降雨量正相关,而实际蒸散发量对气温变化的响应不明显;平水年径流量对降雨量变化的响应较强,枯水年径流量对温度变化的响应较强;枯水年实际蒸散发量对降雨量变化的响应较强。     

以降水为基础的淮北浅埋区涝渍分析与评价

淮北平原涝渍灾害严重,研究淮北浅埋区的地下水埋深对降水的响应规律及涝渍评价方法,对科学规划区域排涝减灾及农作物增产具有重要意义。基于五道沟实验站32年的日降水、地下水埋深及土壤水分数据,利用数理统计的方法分析了五道沟实验站降水、地下水埋深变化特征,同时分析了作物和不同雨强的降水对地下水埋深的影响。利用正距平法和Z指数法对五道沟实验站涝情进行评价。结果表明:淮北浅埋区的年内降水主要集中在5—9月;作物生长前期需水少,降水补给量决定了地下水水位的增长幅度,后期需水量过大,地下水水位会持续下降;地下水埋深在年内呈现双峰变化,在地下水浅埋区,地下水埋深对一定范围内的降水具有弹性;对比不同雨强下地下水水位的响应时间发现,随着雨强的增大,地下水水位的响应时间逐渐减小;两种方法均能较好评价淮北浅埋区的涝渍情况,但长期无降水、地下水位过低时会高估受涝渍灾害的严重性,且Z指数法高估程度更明显。     

The Correlation Between Statistically Downscaled Precipitation Data and Groundwater Level Records in North-Western Turkey

Downscaling of atmospheric climate parameters is a sophisticated tool to develop statistical relationships between large-scale atmospheric variables and local-scale meteorological variables. In this study, the variables selected from the National Centre for Environmental Prediction and National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data set were used as predictors for the downscaling of monthly precipitation in a watershed located in north-western Turkey where station records terminated two decades ago. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based approach was used to downscale global climate predictors that are positively correlated to the existing time frame of precipitation data in the basin. The downscaled precipitation information were used to extend the non-existing data from the meteorological station, which were later correlated with groundwater level data obtained from automatic pressure transducers that continuously record depth to groundwater. The results of the study showed that, among a large set of NCEP/NCAR parameters, surface precipitation data recorded at the meteorological station was strongly correlated with precipitation rate, air temperature and relative humidity at surface and air temperature at 850, 500, and 200 hPa pressure levels, and geopotential heights at 850 and 200 hPa pressure levels. The gaps in station data were then filled with the correlations obtained from NCEP/NCAR parameters and a complete precipitation data set was obtained that extended to current time line. This extended precipitation time series was later correlated with the existing groundwater level data from an alluvial plain in order to develop a general relationship that can be used in basin-wide water budget estimations. The proposed methodology is believed to serve the needs of engineers and basin planners who try to create a link between related hydrological variables under data-limited conditions.     

Integrated Surface–Subsurface Modeling of Fuxianhu Lake Catchment, Southwest China

This paper describes an integrated surface–subsurface modeling study of the Fuxianhu Lake catchment (southwest China). Pollution threats to this important water resource have led to the need to evaluate transport pathways and the overall water balance of the catchment. Catchment inputs to the lake include river inflows, direct overland flow and groundwater discharge, which are incorporated into a mathematical model of the system. Surface runoff and groundwater recharge are estimated using a parsimonious soil–vegetation modeling approach, while groundwater flow is based on the MODFLOW-2005 code. Overland flow and stream discharge are coupled to the groundwater regime through the soil layer and are routed through the catchment to account for surface water flow pathways. The model is tested using the V-catchment benchmark problem and is compared to existing models to demonstrate accuracy and capability. Application of the model to the Fuxianhu catchment provides for the first-order approximation of the average catchment water balance, which comprises such components as evapotranspiration losses (37% of rainfall), surface runoff to the lake (37% of rainfall), and groundwater discharge to the lake (8% of rainfall), amongst others. The computationally efficient approach to surface–subsurface modeling adopted in this investigation presents as an alternative to more complex methods, and allows for the rapid assessment of flow pathways at the catchment scale. An erratum to this article can be found at     

Relating Trends in Streamflow to Anthropogenic Influences: A Case Study of Himayat Sagar Catchment,India

Catchment development has been identified as a potentially major cause of streamflow change in many river basins in India. This research aims to understand changes in the Himayat Sagar catchment (HSC), India, where significant reductions in streamflow have been observed. Rainfall and streamflow trend analysis for 1980–2004 shows a decline in streamflow without significant changes in rainfall. A regression model was used to quantify changes in the rainfall-runoff relationship over the study period. We relate these streamflow trends to anthropogenic changes in land use, groundwater abstraction and watershed development that lead to increased ET (Evapotranspiration) in the catchment. Streamflow has declined at a rate of 3.6 mm/y. Various estimates of changes in evapotranspiration/irrigation water use were made. Well inventories suggested an increase of 7.2 mm/y in groundwater extractions whereas typical irrigation practices suggests applied water increased by 9.0 mm/y, while estimates of evapotranspiration using remote sensing data showed an increasing rate of 4.1 mm/y. Surface water storage capacity of various small watershed development structures increased by 2 mm over 7 years. It is concluded that the dominant hydrological process responsible for streamflow reduction is the increase in evapotranspiration associated with irrigation development, however, most of the anthropogenic changes examined are interrelated and occurred simultaneously, making separating out individual impacts very difficult.     

Spatial and Time Variability of Drought Based on SPI and RDI with Various Time Scales

The spatial and temporal variability of droughts were studied for the Northeast Algeria using SPI and RDI computed with monthly precipitation data from 123 rainfall stations and CFSR reanalysis monthly temperature data covering the period 1979–80 to 2013–14. The gridded temperature data was interpolated to all the locations having precipitation data, thus providing to compute SPI and RDI with the time scales of 3-, 6- and 12-month with the same observed rainfall data. Spatial and temporal patterns of droughts were obtained using Principal Component Analysis in S-Mode with Varimax rotation applied to both SPI and RDI. For all time scales of both indices, two principal components were retained identifying two sub-regions that are similar and coherent for all SPI and RDI time scales. Both components explained more than 70% and 74% of drought spatial variability of SPI and RDI, respectively. The identified sub-regions are similar and coherent for all SPI and RDI time scales. The Modified Mann-Kendall test was used to assess trends of the RPC scores, which have shown non-significant trends for decreasing drought occurrence and severity in both identified drought sub-regions and all time scales. Both indices have shown a coherent and similar behavior, however with RDI likely showing to identify more severe and moderate droughts in the southern and more arid sub-region which may be due to its ability to consider influences of global warming. Results for RDI are quite uniform relative to time scales and show smaller differences among the various climates when compared with SPI. Further assessments covering the NW and NE of Algeria using longer time series should be performed to better understand the behavior of both indices.     

湘江流域 TRMM 降水数据精度检验

数据精度检验是卫星遥感降水数据应用中的关键问题之一。目前对TRMM数据精度检验多以偏差和相关性分析等方法为主,对不同雨量等级的估计检验比较缺乏。针对湘江流域,引入模糊综合评分方法以解决不同雨量等级降水估计的检验,同时利用泰森多边形法、模糊综合评分方法、相关系数法和散点斜率法,以研究区内14个气象站点实测降水数据为"真值",对TRMM 3B42降水数据在日、月尺度分别进行了定性和定量精度检验。结果表明:研究区TRMM 3B42降水数据在月、日尺度上相关系数分别达到了0.93、0.48,前者偏差值Bias比后者低84%,精度更优;在不同降水量级的预测中,精度由好到差依次为小雨、暴雨、大雨、中雨,其中小雨预报精度最好,达到良好水平,其他雨量级预报精度为中等水平。