THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TROPICAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND SUMMER RAINFALL OVER NORTHWEST CHINA

In this paper,the data of summer precipitation in Northwest China were expanded by means of EOF.According tomajor eigenvectors in expansion the area of Northwest China was divided into four natural rainfall regions.Amongthem the region of greatest precipitation variability is found over the East Qinghai-North Shaanxi region,includingEast Qinghai,Central and East Gansu,Ningxia and North Shaanxi.There is apparent teleconnection between the firstand second time-dependent coefficients in EOF expansion and the tropical Pacific SST in the corresponding period andearlier months.The variation of the east tropical Pacific SST in winter and spring is able to predict precipitation trend ofNorthwest China next summer.Moreover,in the El Nino years precipitation trend is opposite to the following year,andthe region from East Qinghai to North Shaanxi is most sensitive.     

TELECONNECTIONS OF THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC, AND WITH THE 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE

The observational data of global sea surface temperature and the 500 hPa geopotential height field in the Northern Hemisphere are used to get two teleconnection patterns. The time interval of the data is from January 1950 to December 1979. The results show that the sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian Ocean have evident positive correlation with the SSTA in the eastern Pacific and obvious teleconnection with the 500 hPa geopotential height field in [he Northern Hemisphere.     

THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) and PRECIPITATION OVER NW CHINA

1INTRODUCTIONFormorethanadecade,theair-seainteractionshavebecomeawell-knowncoresubjectofclimateresearch.Largeamountoffactsandtheoreticresearchhaveshownthattheoceanisplayinganessentialroleinclimatechangesonvirtuallyalltimescales[1,2].Tropicaloceansaremajorsuppliersofenergyforglobalatmosphericmotion.Theareaofoceantakesupmorethan70%oftheEarth抯surfaceandvariationsofthetropicaloceancontributemuchtotheinterannualvariationofthegeneralcirculationandclimate[3].Ithasbeenacknowledgedthattheanomaly…     

REGIONAL DISCREPANCIES OF THE IMPACT OF TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN WARMING ON NORTHWEST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCY IN THE YEARS OF DECAYING EL NIO

This study investigates the influences of tropical Indian Ocean(TIO) warming on tropical cyclone(TC)genesis in different regions of the western North Pacific(WNP) from July to October(JASO) during the decaying El Nio. The results show significant negative TC frequency anomalies localized in the southeastern WNP. Correlation analysis indicates that a warm sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA) in the TIO strongly suppresses TC genesis south of 21°N and east of 140°E in JASO. Reduced TC genesis over the southeastern WNP results from a weak monsoon trough and divergence and subsidence anomalies associated with an equatorial baroclinic Kelvin wave. Moreover,suppressed convection in response to a cold local SSTA, induced by the increased northeasterly connected by the wind-evaporation-SST positive feedback mechanism, is found unfavorable for TC genesis. Positive TC genesis anomalies are observed over higher latitudinal regions(at around 21°N, 140°E) and the western WNP because of enhanced convection along the northern flank of the WNP anomalous anticyclone and low-level convergence,respectively. Although local modulation(e.g., local SST) could have greater dominance over TC activity at higher latitudes in certain anomalous years(e.g., 1988), a warm TIO SSTA can still suppress TC genesis in lower latitudinal regions of the WNP. A better understanding of the contributions of TIO warming could help improve seasonal TC predictions over different regions of the WNP in years of decaying El Nio.     

RESPONSES OF SUMMER RAINFALL OVER CHINA TO ANOMALIES OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC

The temporal and spatial responses of summer(June—August)rainfall (SR) over China to anomalies of sum-mer sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific is investigated by using regression analysis and prin-cipal component analysis in this paper.The results show that the responses of SR over China to SST anomalyin the eastern North Pacific in middle latitudes are more sensitive than the others.The strong response areasof SR to SST are generally located in the Changjiang River valley,west:rn North of China,and South China.The spatial pattern of responses of SR to SST manifests in the spatial pattern of the first principal componentnamely,the domain shape with negative-positive-negative anomalies along south-north direction,thus the signof anomalies in the Changjiang River valley is contrary to that of its North or South.     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS OF THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OVER THE PACIFIC ON PRECIPITATION IN 1991

A zonal domain,primitive equation model is used in this paper to study the influences of the main sea surface tem-perature anomaly(SSTA)areas over the Pacific on precipitation in 1991.Some numerical experiments are made and themechanisms of the influences are discussed.The results show that the influences of the SSTA are mainly confined withinthe tropical and the subtropical regions.The direct effect of the SSTA is to change the exchanges of the sensible heat andthe water vapour between the air and the sea,through the consequent changes of temperature and the flow fields and thefeedback process of condensation,the SSTA finally affects precipitation.     

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERANNUAL VARIATION OF MERIDIONAL WIND ANOMALIES IN TROPICAL PACIFIC AND SSTA

The Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) method is used to conduct studies of periodicity of the SST and meridional winds in tropical Pacific Ocean. The results show that the air-sea system for the Pacific varies on quasi-4-year, quasi-2-year and interannual scales, with the quasi-4-year scale having the highest variability. Depending on the scale, the wind field has a varying degree of association with the SST anomalies. Difference is also found in the evolution of phase. In addition, the work discusses the difference in SSTA resulted from wind fields for quasi-4-year and quasi-2-year components.     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

THE INFLUENCES OF SSTA OVER KUROSHIO AND ITS EXTENSION ON RAINFALL IN NORTHEAST CHINA UNDER THE BACKGROUND OF TWO DIFFERENT EL NIO CASES

By using the gauged rainfall in 160 stations within mainland China and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the impacts of anomalous SST in Kuroshio and its extension on precipitation in Northeast China were investigated. The results show that a difference in the meridional circulation such as the East Asia/Pacific teleconnection pattern(EAP)may be responsible for the difference in rainfall between 1998 and 2010. In comparison with 1998, the anomalous meridional circulation pattern in 2010 shifted northeastward, and then the western subtropical high, the mid-latitudinal trough and the northeastern Asia blocking high also shifted northeastward, causing intensified convergence of the cold and warm air masses at the southern region and thus more rainfall in the southwestern region and less in the northwestern region. In 1998, the anomalous cyclone, one component of the meridional pattern, located at the Songhuajiang-Nengjiang River basin, resulted in more rainfall in the majority of the area. The results of observation and the model show that the difference in SSTA in Kuroshio and its extension under the background of different El Ni觡o events is the key point:(1) The anomalous warmth moved westward from the mid-Pacific to the east of the Philippine Sea during the central event, which led the heat resources shifting to the northeast in 2010; subsequently, a shift occurred to the north of the anomalous ascent and decent, followed by a warm SSTA in the region of Kuroshio's extension in 2010 and Kuroshio in 1998.(2) The warm SSTA in the Kuroshio extension causing the Rossby wave activity flux strengthened in 2010, and then the westerly jet shifted northward and extended eastward. A warm SSTA in Kuroshio and cold SSTA in its extension in 1998 caused the westerly jet to shift southward and weaken. As a result,the anomalous anticyclone and cyclone shifted northward in 2010, and the blocking high also shifted northward.     

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THE SEASONAL MODALITY AND WEST EXTENDING OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH

~~THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON AND THE SEASONAL MODALITY AND WEST EXTENDING OF THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH@张韧$Department of Marine Meteorology, Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Sciences & Technology, Nanjing 211101 China @何金海$Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Meteorology, Nanjing 210044 China @董兆俊$Department of Marine Meteorology, Institute of Meteorology, PLA Uni…     

ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE SUMMER RAINFALL IN CHINA AND THE ATMOSPHERIC HEAT SOURCES OVER THE EASTERN TIBETAN PLATEAU AND THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL

The relationships between the summer rainfall in China and the atmospheric heat sources over the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the western Pacific warm pool were analyzed comparatively, using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis daily data. The strong (weak) heat sou…     

A STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE SUMMER PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST CHINA AND THE GLOBAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY (SSTA) IN PRECEDING SEASONS

1 INTRODUCTION Chilling damage, flooding and drought in summer are the major climatic disasters inNortheast China. Before the 1980s chilling damage often occurred, and after 1990s flooding and drought disasters were more noticeable in this region. These c…     

THE CORRELATIONS BETWEEN SST AND SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN CHINA AND THE EFFECT OF THE SST ANOMALY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ON THE SUMMER MONSOON AND PRECIPITATION

By use of the method of empirical orthogonal function resolution a study is made of the distributionpatterns of summer rainfall percentage anomalies over eastern China with the result that such anomalies areable to reflect the relative amount of local precipitation.Then the correlations are obtained through calcula-tion between the patterns and the January and June global SST,indicating key regions in association withChina's summer rainfall.On this basis,an 11-layer atmospheric circulation model by the U.K.Meteorol-ogical Office is used to simulate the effect of a weak SST anomaly of the South China Sea upon the summermonsoon circulation in China's mainland.Results show that‘attraction’is available for the Indian monsoonwith a warm anomaly of the SST and‘repelling’with a cold,representing one of the reasons for the anti-phase between the monsoons over the South China Sea and India.Such functions of SST anomalies have asignificant influence on summer rainfall over eastern China.     

STUDY ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ACTIVITY OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC IN 2004 AND THE CAUSATION

In this paper, we summarized the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TC) activity over the western North Pacific in 2004 and analyzed their causation. Compared with the normal, the annual frequency of TC in 2004 was slightly higher, tropical cyclones in 2004 had a longer life span and occurred in a concentrated period, the source of TC were situated eastward; in all tracks of TC, the recurvature tracks took up larger proportion, the landfall regions of TC were located northward, which concentrated from East China to Japan. The primary causes were revealed as follows. Firstly, the intensity and area of the western North Pacific subtropical high was stronger and larger than usual respectively, and its ridge was frequently in the form of cells and stretched northwestward. Secondly, the convergence of intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) was reinforced and the convergence zone moved more eastward than average. Thirdly, the meridionality of the westerlies was larger than average and the cell-shaped ridge formed a saddle region, which is in favor of TC northward motion and recurature.     

NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF THE DIFFERENCES IN DIFFUSION BETWEEN p－SURFACE AND σ－SURFACE

Dimensional analysis and reduction are done to two existing schemes of 4th-order linear horizontal diffusion, and detailed control experiments between them are made using a topographyincluded mesoscale model. Horizontal diffusion is calculated on the or surface in one (known as Scheme A afterwards ), and on the p-surface in another (Scheme B). Experiments show that differences are small in smooth-terrain areas and very large in steep mountain areas, with the 24h rainfall prediction deviating by 50 mm between forecasts of the two sChemes. The reason may be that temperature and humidity are falsely diffused in Scheme A, which causes abnormal temperature and humidity, and results in the anomalies of the unstable layer and convective processes. In addition, Scheme A could also bring about circulation anomalies which assumingly have direct link to the convective anomalies in the scheme. Furthermore, perturbation may also affect surrounding areas by wave-like propagation such that precipitation anomalies may occur in the area. The analysis indicate that Scheme B is necessary and feasible for it minimizes diffusion-involved forecast abnormality in steep mountains and areas around.     

COMPARISON STUDY ON THE INTRASEASONAL VARIATIONS IN CIRCULATIONS AND PRECIPITATION MODULATED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTH CHINA SEA–WESTERN PACIFIC DURING GUANGDONG FLOODING PERIOD

Based on tropical cyclone datasets from Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP, USA) reanalysis data and the rainfall records from 743 stations in China, the impacts of cyclogenesis number over the South China Sea and the western Pacific are studied on the 30-60-day oscillations in the precipitation of Guangdong during the flooding period. The year with more-than-normal (less-than-normal) tropical cyclogenesis is defined as a ‘high year’ (‘low year’). In light of the irregular periodic oscillations, the method used to construct the composite life cycle is based on nine consecutive phases in each of the cycles. Phases 1, 3, 5, and 7 correspond to, respectively, the time when precipitation anomalies reach the minimum, a positive transition (negative-turning-to-positive) phase, the maximum, and a negative transition phase. The results showed that the precipitation of the 30-60-day oscillations is associated with the interaction between a well-organized eastward propagation system from the Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal and a westward-propagating system (with cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the northwest-southeast direction) from the South China Sea to western Pacific during the high years, whereas the precipitation is affected during a low year by the circulation over the South China Sea and western Pacific (with cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies in the northeast-southwest direction). During the high year, the warm and wet air mass from the ocean to the west and south are transported to Guangdong by westerly anomalies and an enclosed latitudinal cell, which ascends in the Northern Hemisphere low latitudes and descends in the Southern Hemisphere low latitudes. During the low year, the warm and wet air mass from the ocean to the south is transported to Guangdong by southwesterly wind anomalies and local ascending movements. Because the kinetic energy, westerly, easterly shift, vertical velocity and vapor transportation averaged over (109–119° E, 10–20° N) is stronger in high years than those in low years, the precipitation of the 30-60-day oscillations in Guangdong is higher in high years than that in low years.