| 印度河流域气温、降水、蒸发及干旱变化特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 赵建婷,王艳君,苏布达,陶辉,姜彤. 印度河流域气温、降水、蒸发及干旱变化特征[J]. 干旱区地理, 2020, 43(2): 349-359. DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.02.08 |
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| 作者姓名： | 赵建婷 王艳君 苏布达 陶辉 姜彤 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同中心/灾害风险管理研究院/地理科学学院;2. 中国气象局国家气候中心;3. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部基础资源调查专项（2018FY100501）；国家自然科学基金委和巴基斯坦科学基金会合作项目（41661144027）；国家自然科学基金（41671211）资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于印度河流域及周围54个地面气象站气温、降水资料,结合CRU气温和GPCC降水全球格点化陆面再分析资料,通过插值构建了一套0.5°×0.5°分辨率1980—2016年逐月格点数据集。采用Thornthwaite方法计算了潜在蒸散发,基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),探讨了印度河流域气候变化及干旱演变特征。结果表明:(1)1980—2016年,印度河流域年平均气温以0.30℃·(10 a)-1的速率呈显著上升趋势,21世纪初增温幅度最大;干季(11月～次年4月)升温速率较快,达0.36℃·(10 a)-1,湿季(5～10月)增速0.25℃·(10 a)-1。年降水量呈现少雨—多雨—少雨—多雨年代际振荡。伴随着持续升温,年和各季的潜在蒸发量增加显著。干季干旱频率较多,但湿季干旱强度高,各季干旱频率与降水呈现较一致的年代际波动;干旱的影响面积在干季呈现微弱地增加趋势,湿季却略有减少趋势。(2)空间上,除西北局部,流域其他区域的年和季平均气温、潜在蒸发量增加趋势显著,均达到95%置信水平。其中南部平原和东北山区升温幅度较高,...
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| 关 键 词： | 气温 降水 蒸散发 干旱 时空变化 印度河流域 |
| 收稿时间： | 2019-05-02 |
Spatiotemporal distributions oftemperature,precipitation,evapotranspiration,and drought in the Indus River Basin |
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| ZHAO Jian-ting,WANG Yan-jun,SU Bu-da,TAO Hui,JIANG Tong. Spatiotemporal distributions oftemperature,precipitation,evapotranspiration,and drought in the Indus River Basin[J]. Arid Land Geography, 2020, 43(2): 349-359. DOI: 10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2020.02.08 |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Jian-ting WANG Yan-jun SU Bu-da TAO Hui JIANG Tong |
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| Abstract: | Supported by temperature and precipitationobservations from 54 ground based stations in the Indus RiverBasin and surrounding areas, we used Climate Research Unit temperature andGlobal Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation global land surfacereanalysis datasets to construct a new gridded monthly dataset covering theentire Indus River Basin.This dataset achieved a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5° for 1980-2016.We derived potentialevapotranspiration values with the Thornthwaite model in order to furtheranalyze the drought characteristics in the basin according to the StandardPrecipitation Evapotranspiration Index.Our results revealed that the arealaveraged annual mean temperatures increased significantly between 1980 and2016, with a rate of 0.30 ℃ ·(10 a)-1.The most obvious increase occurred in the early 21st century.On aseasonal timescale, the observed increase was much faster in the dry season(November April; 0.36 ℃ ·(10 a)-1) than it was in the wet season (May October;0.25 ℃ ·(10 a)-1).Unlike the monotonic increase observed fortemperature, annual precipitation revealed a decadal oscillation.Driven by thepersistent warming, annual and seasonal potential evapotranspiration rates haveincreased significantly.We also detected that drought frequency showed decadalfluctuations similar to those of precipitation patterns.Drought was more commonin the dry season, but drought intensity is higher in the wet season.Meanwhile,the extent of drought-stricken areasexperienced a weak increasing trend in the dry season, but a slight decrease inthe wet season.Spatially, the 1980-2016 increases in seasonal and annualtemperature and potential evapotranspiration were significant at a 95%confidence level throughout the Indus River Basin, except for a small fractionin the northwestern portion of the region.Warming was sharpest in the southernplain and the northeastern mountain regions, while potential evapotranspirationrose particularly quickly in the southern plain.Over the same period, annualand wet season precipitation along the southeast-to-orthwestbelt from New Delhi to Kabul increased significantly, as did dry-seasonprecipitation around Kabul.We detected a significant drying trend during thedry season for the southeastern plain and for some parts of the northeasternmountain region.When combined with the drying that we saw during the wet seasonfor the northeastern and southwestern mountain regions, our results signal theimportance of strengthening our preparation for climate-relateddisaster prevention.Effective countermeasures need to be identified andimplemented in order to mitigate the adverse effects of continued droughtintensification. |
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| Keywords: | temperature precipitation evapotranspiration drought spatiotemporal variations Indus River Basin |
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