| 2013-2017年陕西省手足口病的时空流行特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 白尧, 陈志军, 陈保忠, 刘昆, 邵中军. 2013-2017年陕西省手足口病的时空流行特征[J]. 中华疾病控制杂志, 2021, 25(3): 329-334. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.03.015 |
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| 作者姓名： | 白尧 陈志军 陈保忠 刘昆 邵中军 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.710032 西安，空军军医大学军事预防医学系军队防疫与流行病学教研室，特殊作业环境危害评估与防治教育部重点实验室;;2.710054 西安，西安市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家传染病防治科技重大专项(2017ZX10105011);国家自然科学基金项目(81373058);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划项目(2017JQ8015) |
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| 摘 要： | 目的 探讨陕西省手足口病疫情的时空演变规律，为优化手足口病的防控策略提供科学依据。 方法 陕西省2013-2017年手足口病疫情个案数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统，同期人口数据来源于陕西省统计年鉴，采用R 3.4.1、ArcGIS 10.2和SaTScan 9.2软件进行时空流行病学特征分析。 结果 陕西省2013-2017年累计报告手足口病284 225例，年均发病率150.45/10万；历年4-7月病例数占总病例数的70.69%，高发病率区县主要分布在关中地区的中东部区域。重症病例、死亡病例分布与总病例的空间分布基本一致。时空扫描分析显示，全省2013-2017年手足口病存在4个高发热点区域；疫情的一类聚集区固定在以西安市为中心的全省中部和东南部区县(RR=2.25, 95% CI: 2.18~3.11, P < 0.001)，但二类聚集区位置不固定。全省2013-2017年手足口病的优势流行病原为其他肠道病毒。 结论 陕西省手足口病疫情存在显著的时空聚集性特征，近年来病原以其他肠道病毒为主，呈现多病原交替流行；应针对不同时段和地区采取针对性的措施，以有效控制发病。
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| 关 键 词： | 手足口病 空间流行病学 时空扫描统计 |
| 收稿时间： | 2020-07-13 |
| 修稿时间： | 2020-12-26 |
The spatio-temporal characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Shaanxi Province,2013-2017 |
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| BAI Yao, CHEN Zhi-jun, CHEN Bao-zhong, LIU Kun, SHAO Zhong-jun. The spatio-temporal characteristics of hand-foot-mouth disease in Shaanxi Province, 2013-2017[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(3): 329-334. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.03.015 |
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| Authors: | BAI Yao CHEN Zhi-jun CHEN Bao-zhong LIU Kun SHAO Zhong-jun |
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| Affiliation: | 1. Department of Epidemiology, School of Military Preventive Medicine, Ministry of Education Key Lab of Hazard Assessment and Control in Special Operational Environment, Air Force Medical University, Xi'an 710032, China;;2. Department of Infection Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Xi'an 710054, China |
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| Abstract: | Objective To obtain the spatial-temporal dynamical features of hand-foot-mouth disease(HFMD)in Shaanxi Province,so as to provide evidence for the development of relative prevention and control programs on HFMD.Methods Surveillance data of HFMD was collected from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention from 2013 to 2017.Related data on population was obtained from Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook.Statistical tools as R 3.4.1,ArcGIS 10.2 and Satscan 9.2 software were used to analyse the spatial-temporal characteristics of the disease.Results A total of 284225 cases of HFMD were reported in Shaanxi Province from 2013 to 2017,with an average annual incidence as 150.45 per 100000.70.69%of the total cases were identified between April and July.Counties with high incidence were mainly distributed in the mid-east parts of Guanzhong area(Central Shaanxi Plain).The spatial distribution of severe as well as death cases were basically consistent with the total cases.Through temporal and spatial scan statistics,we identified that there were four hot spots in Shaanxi Province,the most likely clustering area was fixed to the central and southeast counties of Shaanxi province which were around Xi’an City from 2013 to 2017(RR=2.25,95%CI:2.18-3.11,P<0.001),but the location of the secondary clustering area was not fixed.The predominant epidemic pathogen of HFMD was other enteroviruses from 2013 to 2017.Conclusions Significant spatial-temporal aggregation of HFMD was seen in Shaanxi Province.In recent years,other enteroviruses have became the main pathogeny,and multiple pathogens have been circulating alternately.Specific measures should be taken for different periods and regions to control the disease effectively. |
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| Keywords: | Hand-foot-mouth disease Spatial epidemiology Spatial-temporal scan statistics |
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