| 基于Copula函数的马尔科夫链风速预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 张彬桥1,葛苏叶1,李成2. 基于Copula函数的马尔科夫链风速预测模型[J]. 陕西电力, 2021, 0(11): 24-30,37 |
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| 作者姓名： | 张彬桥1 葛苏叶1 李成2 |
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| 作者单位： | （1.三峡大学电气与新能源学院，湖北宜昌 443002；2.国网岳阳供电公司，湖南岳阳 414000） |
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| 摘 要： | 针对风能随机波动造成的电网不平稳运行问题，提出了一种基于Copula函数计算马尔科夫链风速预测模型，对风速进行了短期预测。首先，利用相邻时段风速变量时间相关性建立连续一阶马尔科夫链风速预测模型，然后，结合Copula函数并采用基于经验分布的半参数估计法计算风速模型的状态转移函数，有效避开了离散型马尔科夫链因风速状态离散化程度高引起模型计算过于复杂的缺点，并且生成了较高精度的预测风速时间序列。最后，实例仿真分析结果验证了所提模型预测的准确性和有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 风速预测 马尔科夫链 Copula函数 仿真模型 |
Markov Chain Wind Speed Prediction Model Based on Copula Function |
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| ZHANG Binqiao1,GE Suye1,LI Cheng2. Markov Chain Wind Speed Prediction Model Based on Copula Function[J]. Shanxi Electric Power, 2021, 0(11): 24-30,37 |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Binqiao1 GE Suye1 LI Cheng2 |
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| Affiliation: | （1. Collage of Electrical Engineering & New Energy，China Three Gorges University，Yichang 443002，China；2. State Grid Yueyang Power Supply Company， Yueyang 414000， China） |
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| Abstract: | In view of the unstable operation of power grid caused by the random fluctuation of wind energy， the paper proposes a Markov chain wind speed prediction model based on Copula function to predict the wind speed in the short term. Firstly， a continuous first-order Markov chain wind speed prediction model is established based on the time correlation of wind speed variables in adjacent time intervals. Then the state transition function of the wind speed model is calculated by combining the Copula function and empirical distribution-based semiparametric estimation method， avoiding the problem effectively that the calculation of the model is too complex due to the high discretization of the wind speed state in a discrete Markov chain. Meanwhile the high precision time series of predicted wind speed are generated. Finally， the simulation analysis results of an example verify the accuracy and effectiveness of the model prediction. |
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| Keywords: | wind speed prediction Markov chain Copula function simulation model |
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