南太平洋长鳍金枪鱼渔场预报模型研究

长鳍金枪鱼资源是南太平洋金枪鱼渔业的重要目标种类,也是我国金枪鱼延绳钓的主要捕捞对象之一。根据2008-2009年我国海洋渔业公司在南太平洋海域的生产数据,结合表层、105 m和205 m水层温度,以及海面高度、叶绿素a浓度等海洋环境数据,运用一元非线性回归方法,按季度建立基于各环境因子的长鳍金枪鱼栖息地适应性指数,采用算术平均法获得基于多环境因子的栖息地指数综合模型,并用于中心渔场的预报。通过与实际作业渔场的比较与验证,结果表明:模型预报准确性达到70%以上,具较高渔情预报准确度。

Models of Forecasting Fishing Ground of Thunnus Alalunga in the South Pacific Ocean

The ablacore(Thunnus alalunga) is one of the main targets in tuna longline fishery in the south Pacific Ocean,and also one of the main fishing targets for Chinese tuna longline fishery.The production data collected from Chinese fishing companies during 2008 to 2009 in the south Pacific ocean,was applied in combination with the environmental data such as the sea surface temperature,water temperature at 105 meter layer,water temperature at 205 meter layer,sea surface height,and chlorophyll a concentration,the habitat suitability curve of each environmental factor for one quarter was established by using a linear regression,and the habitat suitability index model was set up by using arithmetic mean model(AMM) and was applied to forecast the fishing ground.According to the validation with the actual fishing data,the results indicated that the prediction accuracy of this model is above 70%.This forecasting model will play a guide role for fishing in the tuna longline fishery.