基于CLUE-S模型的长沙市望城区土地利用变化预测

针对长沙市望城区未来土地利用在类型数量和空间分布上的变化预测问题,在该区2009～2012年期间土地利用/覆盖现状图的基础上,提出了通过Markov链模型预测类型数量、利用CLUE-S模型预测空间分布的土地利用变化预测方法。在综合影响该区土地利用变化的地形、距离驱动因子的基础上,利用CLUE-S模型预测了研究区2012年和2020年的土地利用空间分布状况。实验表明,2012年土地利用预测结果得到了较高的Kappa系数和ROC值,间接证明了2020年的预测结果具有一定的可信度,对该区土地资源优化配置具有一定的参考价值和借鉴意义。

Prediction of Land Use Changes in Wangcheng District,Changsha City Based on CLUE-S Model

To solve the problems of predicting the changes of quantitative and spatial pattern of land use in Wangcheng district of Changsha city, on the basis of the land use map from 2009 to 2012 in this district, this paper proposes a new method that predicts the quantities of land use change using Markov chain model and identifies their spatial patterns using CLUE-S model. Integrating the terrain and distance driving factors into the CLUE-S model, we predict the spatial pattern of land use in the study area of 2012 and 2020. The predictive result in 2012 shows high Kappa coefficient and ROC values have a certain degree of credibility and reference value for the optimal allocation of land resources in this area and the Kappa coefficient and ROC values indirectly prove the 2020 forecast results.