约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘环境研究

随着气候变化、人口增长和经济发展，全球水资源供需矛盾日益突出，国际河流跨境水冲突不断加剧。地处中东的约旦河是世界上跨境水冲突最严重的河流。1948—2008年约旦河跨境水冲突事件数量占全球总量的1/5，战争性跨境水冲突数量占同级别总量的2/3。本文以地缘价值、地缘关系和地缘结构为模块构建国际河流跨境水冲突地缘环境分析框架，考察约旦河跨境水冲突事件的时空演化及其形成的地缘机制。研究发现，约旦河跨境水冲突的地缘目标集中于水资源战略要地，且按水资源地“主要→核心→次要”空间转移；跨境水冲突事件在时序上呈现从以色列争夺水权为主向域内阿拉伯国家讨还水权为主演化；跨境水冲突地缘体结构中以色列主动发起的跨境水冲突占六成多，域内阿拉伯国家和域外地缘体发起的各约占二成。基于地缘环境分析框架的研究得出以下结论：约旦河流域区位的地缘价值吸引域外大国直接介入，促成跨境水冲突向有利于美国—以色列利益的方向发展；域内地缘体的“水资源地”竞争地缘关系强于“水量”竞争地缘关系，对约旦河跨境水冲突具有强化作用；以色列作为约旦河地缘结构中的水霸权，对该流域跨境水冲突的基本态势和时空分布格局具有主导作用。

The geo-setting of transboundary water conflicts of the Jordan River

Along with climate change, population growth and economic development, the contradiction between global water supply and demand had become increasingly prominent, and water conflicts on international rivers would occur more frequently. The Jordan River had been an international river on most serious conflicts in the world. The number of transboundary water conflicts on the river accounted for 1/5 of the global total between 1948 and 2008, what's more, the proportion of war-related transboundary water conflicts reached 2/3. A geo-setting analysis framework for international river transboundary water conflicts was provided, which was composed of the analysis of geo-value, geo-relationship and geo-structure. And it was used to study the geo-mechanism of the Jordan River transboundary water conflicts. The conclusions can be drawn as follows: (1) The geopolitical goals of the Jordan River transboundary water conflicts were concentrated in water-rich areas, from the major water resources areas to the less important ones, because Israel was scrambling for Jordan River water resources area. After Yom Kippur War, Arab countries started to claim Israel for its own territory rich in water resources in the Jordan River. (2) Israel, the core actor in the water conflicts, started nearly 60%of transboundary water conflicts on the Jordan River, Arab countries accounted for 20%, and non-riparian countries took the rest 20%. (3) It was the geo-value of the Jordan River Basin that attracted foreign powers to directly intervene, which escalated water conflicts and benefitted the United States and Israel. The geo-relationship between "water-rich areas" was stronger than that of "water quantity", which had a strengthening effect on the transboundary water conflicts on the Jordan River. Israel, as the hydro-hegemony of the Jordan River, dominated the geo-structure of the river even more, leading to spatial and temporal distribution pattern of the transboundary water conflicts in the basin.