北极海冰消融情景下东北航道通航性能演变分析

全球气候增暖,导致北极海冰消融加速,冰上丝绸之路的开通逐渐提上日程。本文针对2030—2070年俄罗斯8个重要港口通过东北航道到达白令海峡的通航性能,采用6种CMIP5气候模式在2种排放情景下的海冰数据,以及PC6破冰船和普通商船2种船型,分别对最优航线、通航时长、可通航里程以及通航成本4项要素进行研究。主要结论为：① 随着时间变化,各条最优通航线路逐渐集中有序,普通商船的通航能力显著提高,到2070年拥有和PC6近似相等的通航能力;② 俄港口到白令海峡间的运输时长每过10 a下降14 h,其中圣彼得堡港运输时长下降最为显著。到2070年,俄港口与白令海峡的经度差每增加1°,该港口的运输时长下降0.4 h;③ 未来50 a,东北航道可通航里程平均每隔10 a增加166 km,其中圣彼得堡港可通航里程的变化模式和平均变化模式最为相近;④ 从北冰洋港口出发的航线通航成本每10 a下降1万美元,商船在高浓度排放情景下总通航成本的下降幅度最明显。结合海冰变化情况,俄中西部港口具有巨大的资源运输潜力。本文量化并评估了东北航道在未来海冰消融情景下的通航性能演变态势,为东北航道通航以及北极港口贸易情况提供了理论和数据支撑。

The evolution of navigation performance of Northeast Passage under the scenario of Arctic sea ice melting

The global warming has led to the acceleration of the melting of Arctic sea ice, and the opening of the Polar Silk Road has gradually been put on the agenda. In this paper, according to the navigation performance of eight important Russian ports reaching the Bering Strait through the Northeast Passage from 2030 to 2070, the sea ice data of six CMIP5 climate models under two RCPs and two ship types of PC6 icebreaker and OW (merchant ship) ship are adopted. Based on the study of the four factors of optimal route, navigation time, navigable mileage and navigation cost, the main conclusions are as follows: (1) With the change of time, the optimal navigation routes are gradually concentrated and orderly. The navigation capacity of merchant ship has been significantly improved, and by 2070 it will have the same navigation capacity as the PC6 icebreaker has. (2) The navigation time between the Russian ports and the Bering Strait has decreased by 14 h every 10 a, of which St. Petersburg Port has the most significant decline. By 2070, when the longitude difference between the Russian port and the Bering Strait increases by 1°, the navigation time of the port decreases by 0.4 h. (3) In the next 50 a, the navigable mileage of Northeast Passage will increase by 166 km every 10 a, among which the change pattern and average change pattern of navigable mileage in St. Petersburg Port are the most similar. (4) The navigation cost of the route from the Arctic port is reduced by $10,000 every 10 a, and the decrease of the total navigation cost of merchant ships is the most obvious under high emission concentration. Combined with the change of sea ice, the ports in central and western Russia have great potential for resource transportation. This study quantifies and evaluates the evolution of the navigation performance of the Northeast Passage under the future sea ice melting situation, which provides theoretical and data support for the navigation of the Northeast Passage and the Arctic port trade.